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Science plan for improving three-dimensional seismic velocity models in the San Francisco Bay region, 2019–24

This five-year science plan outlines short-term and long-term goals for improving three-dimensional seismic velocity models in the greater San Francisco Bay region as well as how to foster a community effort in reaching those goals. The short-term goals focus on improving the current U.S. Geological Survey San Francisco Bay region geologic and seismic velocity model using existing data. The long-term goals focus on acquiring new data and leveraging better analytic tools to improve the model and characterize the uncertainty. The plan describes opportunities for contributions by members of the community to develop these seismic velocity models, provides current and potential users with general information on where efforts will likely be focused to improve these models and how new versions of the models will be released, and outlines funding needs and obstacles for improving and maintaining such models. Several aspects of this plan, including how to foster a community effort, are independent of the geographic region and apply to other similar efforts.

California

U.S. Geological Survey Trace Elements and related reports through 1954

This report supersedes TEI-400, "U.S. Geological Survey Trace Elements and related reports through 1953." Part I is a numerical list of U.S. Geological Survey Trace Elements Investigations and Memorandum reports. This part lists not only reports (followed by a date) that have been transmitted to the U.S> Atomic Energy Commission, but also reports in preparation (followed by an asterisk) for which tentative titles were available on December 31, 1954. If a report, or portion of a report, has been published, the fact is indicated by the abbreviation of the medium of publication. (See also Part II.) Part II is a reference guide to Trace Elements and related reports that are available to the public (this part supersedes Part I of Bulletin 1019-B). These reports are grouped according to the type of publication or release. If a report, or portion of the report, has been published in more than one form, appropriate cross-references are given to indicate the other forms of publication. Abstracts published in Nuclear Science Abstracts are not included in Part II; however, if the abstract of a Trace Elements report has been published in NSA, the fact is indicated in Part I. Publications in process on December 31, 1954, are designated by an asterisk. Part III is a finding list of states, areas, and subjects and supersedes Part II of Bulletin 1019-B. It is based on information derived mostly from the titles of reports and, where titles are of general nature, from a cursory review of the reports. This list is not a complete index of the information given in Trace Elements and related reports, but is designed to find subjects of major interest, Because of the numerous entries for Colorado and Utah, information has been listed by counties and, where possible, by subject under these states. Other states have county listings only if a county is included in the title of a report; otherwise, area may be listed separately under the state. Major subjects are listed separately in the index and also, where appropriate under states. Analytical methods and subjects related to analytical research are listed under Analytical Methods and Research, but not separately throughout the index. Most mineralogic studies are included under the heading Mineralogy, but are not necessarily listed according to location. Part IV is an author index. The words “with” and “and” are used to indicate seniority of authorship. For example, a listing of Smith and Brown indicated that Smith is the senior author. A listing of Smith with Brown indicates that Brown is the senior author. In both parts III and IV all Trace Elements reports are listed, as well as other related reports that have not been issued as Trace Elements reports. The following abbreviations have been used: TEI, Trace Elements Investigations report; TEM, Trace Elements Memorandum report; OF, open file; TIS, Technical Information Service release; C, Circular; B, Bulletin; P, Professional Paper; MC, Maps and Charts; J, Journal; and NSA, Nuclear Science Abstracts.

Trace Elements Investigations

Prospects for reconstructing paleoenvironmental conditions from organic compounds in polar snow and ice

Polar ice cores provide information about past climate and environmental changes over periods ranging from a few years up to 800,000 years. The majority of chemical studies have focused on determining inorganic components, such as major ions and trace elements as well as on their isotopic fingerprint. In this paper, we review the different classes of organic compounds that might yield environmental information, discussing existing research and what is needed to improve knowledge. We also discuss the problems of sampling, analysis and interpretation of organic molecules in ice. This review highlights the great potential for organic compounds to be used as proxies for anthropogenic activities, past fire events from different types of biomass, terrestrial biogenic emissions and marine biological activity, along with the possibility of inferring past temperature fluctuations and even large-scale climate variability. In parallel, comprehensive research needs to be done to assess the atmospheric stability of these compounds, their ability to be transported long distances in the atmosphere, and their stability in the archive in order to better interpret their fluxes in ice cores. In addition, specific decontamination procedures, analytical methods with low detection limits (ng/L or lower), fast analysis time and low sample requests need to be developed in order to ensure a good time resolution in the archive.

Quaternary Science Reviews

Comparison of in vitro estrogenic activity and estrogen concentrations insource and treated waters from 25 U.S. drinking water treatment plants

In vitro bioassays have been successfully used to screen for estrogenic activity in wastewater and surface water, however, few have been applied to treated drinking water. Here, extracts of source and treated water samples were assayed for estrogenic activity using T47D-KBluc cells and analyzed by liquid chromatography-Fourier transform mass spectrometry (LC-FTMS) for natural and synthetic estrogens (including estrone, 17β-estradiol, estriol, and ethinyl estradiol). None of the estrogenswere detected above the LC-FTMS quantification limits in treated samples and only 5 source waters had quantifiable concentrations of estrone, whereas 3 treated samples and 16 source samples displayed in vitro estrogenicity. Estrone accounted for themajority of estrogenic activity in respective samples, however the remaining samples that displayed estrogenic activity had no quantitative detections of known estrogenic compounds by chemical analyses. Source water estrogenicity (max, 0.47 ng 17β-estradiol equivalents (E2Eq) L−1) was below levels that have been linked to adverse effects in fish and other aquatic organisms. Treated water estrogenicity (max, 0.078 ng E2Eq L−1) was considerably below levels that are expected to be biologically relevant to human consumers. Overall, the advantage of using in vitro techniques in addition to analytical chemical determinations was displayed by the sensitivity of the T47D-KBluc bioassay, coupled with the ability tomeasure cumulative effects of mixtures, specifically when unknown chemicals may be present.

Science of the Total Environment

Targeted and non-targeted analysis of young-of-year smallmouth bass using comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography coupled with time-of-flight mass spectrometry

Smallmouth bass in the Susquehanna River Basin, Chesapeake Bay Watershed, USA, have been exhibiting clinical signs of disease and reproductive endocrine disruption (e.g., intersex, male plasma vitellogenin) for over fifteen years. Previous histological and targeted chemical analyses have identified infectious agents and pollutants in fish tissues including organic contaminants, mercury, and perfluorinated compounds, but a common causative link for the observed signs of disease across this widespread area has not been determined. This study examines 146 young-of-year smallmouth bass collected from 14 sampling sites in the Susquehanna River Basin, Pennsylvania, USA with varying levels of disease prevalence. Whole fish were extracted by a recently developed modification to the quick, easy, cheap, effective, rugged, and safe extraction method and analyzed by comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography coupled with time-of-flight mass spectrometry. A targeted analysis was conducted to identify the presence and quantity of 127 known contaminants, including polychlorinated biphenyls, brominated diphenyl ethers, organochlorinated pesticides, and pharmaceutical and personal care products. A non-targeted analysis was conducted on the same data set to identify analytes of interest not included on routine target compound lists. Chromatographic alignment through Statistical Compare (ChromaTOF GC) was followed by Fisher ratio and principal component analysis to reduce the data set from thousands of peaks per sample to a final data set of 65 analytes of interest. Comparisons of these 65 compounds between Normal (no observed health anomalies) and Lesioned (observed health anomaly at time of collection) fish revealed increased levels of three chemical families in Lesioned fish including esters, ketones, and nitrogen containing compounds.

Chesapeake Bay watershed, Susquehanna River basin

Tests of peak flow scaling in simulated self-similar river networks

The effect of linear flow routing incorporating attenuation and network topology on peak flow scaling exponent is investigated for an instantaneously applied uniform runoff on simulated deterministic and random self-similar channel networks. The flow routing is modelled by a linear mass conservation equation for a discrete set of channel links connected in parallel and series, and having the same topology as the channel network. A quasi-analytical solution for the unit hydrograph is obtained in terms of recursion relations. The analysis of this solution shows that the peak flow has an asymptotically scaling dependence on the drainage area for deterministic Mandelbrot-Vicsek (MV) and Peano networks, as well as for a subclass of random self-similar channel networks. However, the scaling exponent is shown to be different from that predicted by the scaling properties of the maxima of the width functions. ?? 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Advances in Water Resources

Sequestration of hydrophobic organic contaminants by geosorbents

The chemical interactions of hydrophobic organic contaminants (HOCs) with soils and sediments (geosorbents) may result in strong binding and slow subsequent release rates that significantly affect remediation rates and endpoints. The underlying physical and chemical phenomena potentially responsible for this apparent sequestration of HOCs by geosorbents are not well understood. This challenges our concepts for assessing exposure and toxicity and for setting environmental quality criteria. Currently there are no direct observational data revealing the molecular-scale locations in which nonpolar organic compounds accumulate when associated with natural soils or sediments. Hence macroscopic observations are used to make inferences about sorption mechanisms and the chemical factors affecting the sequestration of HOCs by geosorbents. Recent observations suggest that HOC interactions with geosorbents comprise different inorganic and organic surfaces and matrices, and distinctions may be drawn along these lines, particularly with regard to the roles of inorganic micropores, natural sorbent organic matter components, combustion residue particulate carbon, and spilled organic liquids. Certain manipulations of sorbates or sorbent media may help reveal sorption mechanisms, but mixed sorption phenomena complicate the interpretation of macroscopic data regarding diffusion of HOCs into and out of different matrices and the hysteretic sorption and aging effects commonly observed for geosorbents. Analytical characterizations at the microscale, and mechanistic models derived therefrom, are needed to advance scientific knowledge of HOC sequestration, release, and environmental risk.

Environmental Science & Technology

The dilemma of pest suppression in the conservation of endangered species

In the conservation of endangered species, active suppression of a population of one native species to benefit another native species poses particular challenges. Obvious examples include predator control and nest parasite reduction. Less obvious is the control of blood-feeding arthropods. We present a case study on the effect of blood-feeding black flies (Simulium spp.) on reintroduced Whooping Cranes (Grus americana). Our intent is to provide a transferrable, science-driven approach for determining the effects of blood-feeding arthropods on endangered vertebrates, and demonstrate an approach for guiding selection of management actions for managers faced with competing objectives. A multi-year experiment demonstrated that black flies reduce nest success in reintroduced cranes by driving the birds off their nests during incubation. Deciding how to respond, however, is complicated because the target black flies are native species that serve important ecological functions. We suggest that a decision-analytic approach can inspire the development of creative management alternatives and facilitate a transparent process that evaluates trade-offs among competing objectives. Recognizing that these decisions involve trade-offs, which must be weighed in the context of each case, is crucial to identifying alternatives that best balance multiple management objectives. Given the uncertainty about the population dynamics of blood-feeding arthropods, an adaptive management approach will offer substantial benefits.

Wisconsin

Quantifying uncertainty when extrapolating the relationship between snorkel counts and mark-recapture estimates of juvenile salmonids

Snorkel surveys are frequently used to monitor stream-dwelling fish. Inferring local abundance from snorkel surveys is complicated by two primary factors: variable fish detection probabilities and the relative abundance of fish in habitat types below the recommended minimum depth for snorkeling. We examine these factors across three salmonid species ( Oncorhynchus spp . ), 4 years, and 113 location-years in Oregon coastal streams. We calibrate snorkel counts to mark-recapture estimates and develop mathematically explicit expressions that convert a new snorkel count into a probability density of abundance for streams containing mixed habitat types that were and were not snorkeled. Snorkelers detected 63%, 47%, and 39% of juvenile coho salmon ( Oncorhynchus kitsutch ), steelhead trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ), and cutthroat trout ( Oncorhynchus clarkii clarkia ) estimated by mark-recapture, respectively, but uncertainty within and among sampling units was high. Further, analytics developed here can be used to infer abundance and uncertainty for habitat types that were not snorkeled. Our quantification of uncertainty arising from using snorkel counts as a proxy for abundance will help managers balance biological risks with available resources.

Oregon

Predicted aquatic exposure effects from a national urban stormwater study

A multi-agency study of 438 organic and 62 inorganic chemicals measured in urban stormwater during 50 total runoff events at 21 sites across the United States demonstrated that stormwater discharges can generate localized, aquatic exposures to extensive contaminant mixtures, including organics suspected to cause adverse aquatic-health effects. The aggregated risks to multiple aquatic trophic levels (fish, invertebrates, plants) of the stormwater mixture exposures, which were documented in the national study, were explored herein by calculating cumulative ratios of organic-contaminant in vitro exposure–activity cutoffs (∑ EAR ) and health-benchmark-weighted cumulative toxicity quotients (∑ TQ ). Both risk assessment approaches indicated substantial (moderate to high) risk for acute adverse effects to aquatic organisms across multiple trophic levels (fish, macroinvertebrates, non-vascular/vascular plants) at or near stormwater discharge points across the United States. The results are interpreted as potential orders of magnitude underestimates of actual aquatic risk in stormwater control wetlands or in the immediate vicinity of such discharges to surface-water receptors, because the 438 organic-compound analytical space assessed in this study is orders of magnitude less than the 350 000 parent compounds estimated to be in current commercial use globally and the incalculable chemical-space of potential metabolites and degradates.

Environmental Science: Water Research and Technolo

Using the value of information to improve conservation decision making

Conservation decisions are challenging, not only because they often involve difficult conflicts among outcomes that people value, but because our understanding of the natural world and our effects on it is fraught with uncertainty. Value of Information (VoI) methods provide an approach for understanding and managing uncertainty from the standpoint of the decision maker. These methods are commonly used in other fields (e.g., economics, public health) and are increasingly used in biodiversity conservation. This decision analytical approach can identify the best management alternative to select where the effectiveness of interventions is uncertain, and can help to decide when to act and when to delay action until after further research. We review the use of VoI in the environmental domain, reflect on the need for greater uptake of VoI, particularly for strategic conservation planning, and suggest promising areas for new research. We also suggest common reporting standards as a means of increasing the leverage of this powerful tool. The environmental science, ecology and biodiversity categories of the Web of Knowledge were searched using the terms ‘Value of Information,’ ‘Expected Value of Perfect Information,’ and the abbreviation ‘EVPI.’ Google Scholar was searched with the same terms, and additionally the terms decision and biology, biodiversity conservation, fish, or ecology. We identified 1225 papers from these searches. Included studies were limited to those that show an application of VoI in biodiversity conservation rather than simply describing the method. All examples of use of VOI were summarised regarding the application of VoI, the management objectives, the uncertainties, models used, how the objectives were measured, and the type of VoI. While the use of VoI appears to be on the increase in biodiversity conservation, the reporting of results is highly variable, which can make it difficult to understand the decision context and which uncertainties were considered. Moreover, it was unclear if, and how, the papers informed management and policy interventions, which is why we suggest a range of reporting standards that would aid the use of VoI. The use of VoI in conservation settings is at an early stage. There are opportunities for broader applications, not only for species-focussed management problems, but also for setting local or global research priorities for biodiversity conservation, making funding decisions, or designing or improving protected area networks and management. The long-term benefits of applying VoI methods to biodiversity conservation include a more structured and decision-focused allocation of resources to research.

Biological Reviews

Linking monitoring and data analysis to predictions and decisions for the range-wide eastern black rail status assessment

The US Fish and Wildlife Service has initiated a re-envisioned approach for providing decision makers with the best available science and synthesis of that information, called the Species Status Assessment (SSA), for endangered species decision making. The SSA report is a descriptive document that provides decision makers with an assessment of a species’ current status and predicted future status. These analyses support all manner of decisions under the US Endangered Species Act, such as listing, reclassification, recovery planning, etc. Novel scientific analysis and predictive modeling in SSAs could be an important part of rooting species conservation decisions in current data and cutting edge analytical and modeling techniques. Here we describe a novel analysis of available data to assess current condition of eastern black rail across its range in a dynamic occupancy analysis. We used the results of the analysis to develop a site occupancy projection model where the model parameters (initial occupancy, site persistence, colonization) were linked to environmental covariates, such as land management and land cover change (sea-level rise, development, etc.). We used the projection model to predict future conditions under multiple sea-level rise and habitat management scenarios. Occupancy probability and site colonization were low in all analysis units and site persistence was also low, suggesting low resiliency and redundancy currently. Extinction probability was high for all analysis units in all simulated scenarios except one with significant effort to preserve existing habitat, suggesting low future resiliency and redundancy. With results of these data analyses and predictive modeling, the US Fish and Wildlife Service concluded that protections of the Endangered Species Act were warranted for this subspecies.

Endangered Species Research

Wide-area debris field and seabed characterization of a deep ocean dump site surveyed by autonomous underwater vehicles

Disposal of industrial and hazardous waste in the deep ocean was a pervasive global practice near coastlines in the 20th century. Uncertainty in the quantity, location, and contents of dumped materials at historical disposal sites underscores ongoing risks to marine ecosystems and human health. This study presents analysis of a 150-km2 wide-area sidescan sonar survey conducted in March 2021 with two autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) at an offshore dumpsite in San Pedro Basin, California. Previous camera surveys located 60 barrels and other debris; sediment analysis in the region showed varying concentrations of the insecticidal chemical Dichlorodiphenyl-trichloroethane (DDT), for which an estimated 350-700 metric tons was discarded in the San Pedro Basin between 1947 and 1961. A lack of primary historical documents from Montrose Chemical or California Salvage Company that specify the DDT acid waste disposal method has contributed to the ambiguity surrounding whether the dumping method was via bulk discharge or containerized units. Barrels and debris visually detected during previous surveys by Remotely Operated Vehicles (ROVs) Jason and SuBastian and AUV Sentry served as the basis for ground truth testing and object classification using size and acoustic intensity characteristics. Target detection and classification algorithms were developed using image and signal processing techniques that resulted in the identification of over 74,000 debris targets within the survey region. Statistical, spectral, and machine learning techniques are used to characterize seabed variability and for bottom-type classification. These analytical techniques combined with the survey capabilities of AUVs provide a framework for efficient mapping and characterization of uncharted deep-water disposal sites.

California

Tapwater-contaminant mixtures and risk in a biofuel-facility impacted private-well community

We assessed private-well drinking water (DW) at the point of use ( i.e. , tapwater, TW) within a rural Nebraska community around a state-closed biofuel facility, which used pesticide-treated corn seed as feedstock for ethanol production. Organic (485), inorganic (34), and microbial (13) analytes were assessed at 15 locations in June 2022, to evaluate the relative contribution of facility-consistent pesticides (seed-treatment fungicides and insecticides) to overall TW-contaminant exposures and predicted human-health risks. Thirty-three organics (12 pesticides) and 28 inorganics were detected, the former including the fungicide sedaxane, insecticide chlorantraniliprole, and multiple neonicotinoid insecticides/degradates, all consistent with seed treatment and respective biofuel-facility waste. Assessment of pesticides only at extant point-of-use (POU) treatment taps at three sites demonstrated complete elimination of all TW-pesticide detections. Based on detection of maximum pesticide concentrations in a home located downstream along a creek capturing facility runoff, pesticides only were assessed in January 2023 again at this home and at three adjacent locations, confirming results at the former and documenting decreasing TW-pesticide concentrations, including neonicotinoids, with increasing distance from the creek. Human-health DW benchmarks are not available for many detected pesticides, including the detected fungicide and insecticides, but precautionary screening levels were exceeded frequently due to multiple inorganics. The results indicate that exposures to multiple (median: 4.5; range: 1–7) co-occurring TW contaminants of potential human-health concern are common, warranting consideration of point-of-entry or POU treatment(s) throughout the community to reduce or eliminate unrecognized exposures to TW contaminants, including facility-associated pesticides in down-gradient locations. More broadly, results emphasize the importance of continued characterization of private-TW exposures, employing a environmentally informative analytical scope, to identify and mitigate risks of unrecognized exposures in private-well-dependent rural communities.

Nebraska

Alleghanian deformation, metamorphism, and granite emplacement in the central Piedmont of the southern Appalachians

Evidence of late Paleozoic (Alleghanian) penetrative deformation, amphilbolite-facies, metamorphism, and syntectonic granite emplacement has been found in an area of the central Piedmont in the southern Appalachians. The High Shoals Granite batholith in the Kings Mountain belt of south-central North Carolina consists of coarse-grained, megacrystic biotite granite with a strong, nearly vertical, gneissoid, foliation, defined by parallel feldspar megacrysts and biotite. U-Ph isotopic data on zircons from the granite yield a concordant age of 317 Ma (Pennsylvanian). This pervasively deformed late Paleozoic granite in the central Piedmont is far west of those known in the Kiokee and Raleigh belts. Field relationships indicate that the High Shoals Granite was emplaced during the late stages of regional F2 folding, close in time to the thermal peak of amphibolite-facies metamorphism. Mineral assemblages typical of Barrovian metamorphism are found in zones of decreasing grade away from the High Shoals contact. These zones, delimited by a kyanite(out)-sillimanite (in) isograd which completely surrounds the batholith and by part of a regional chloritoid (out)-staurolite (in) isograd west and southwest of it, conform to the shape of the batholith and cut across F2 folds. Furthermore, hornblendes from epidoteamphibolite facies to upper amphibolite facies metamorphic rocks in the Kings Mountain belt of North Carolina and South Carolina yield 40Ar/39Ar plateau ages of 318 to 323 Ma. These dates are analytically the same as the crystallization age of High Shoals Granite as established of zireon using the U-Ph method and demonstrate the synchroneity of intrusion of the High Shoals with the dominant regional metamorphism in this part of the Kings Mountain belt.

Southern Appalachians

Deep-sea coral and sponge taxa increase demersal fish diversity and the probability of fish presence

Fishes are known to use deep-sea coral and sponge (DSCS) species as habitat, but it is uncertain whether this relationship is facultative (circumstantial and not restricted to a particular function) or obligate (necessary to sustain fish populations). To explore whether DSCS provide essential habitats for demersal fishes, we analyzed 10 years of submersible survey video transect data, documenting the locations and abundance of DSCS and demersal fishes in the Southern California Bight (SCB). We first classified the different habitats in which fishes and DSCS taxa occurred using cluster analysis, which revealed four distinct DSCS assemblages based on depth and substratum. We then used logistic regression and gradient forest analysis to identify the ecological correlates most associated with the presence of rockfish taxa ( Sebastes spp.) and biodiversity. After accounting for spatial autocorrelation, the factors most related to the presence of rockfishes were depth, coral height, and the abundance of a few key DSCS taxa. Of particular interest, we found that young-of-the-year rockfishes were more likely to be present in locations with taller coral and increased densities of Plumarella longispina , Lophelia pertusa , and two sponge taxa. This suggests these DSCS taxa may serve as important rearing habitat for rockfishes. Similarly, the gradient forest analysis found the most important ecological correlates for fish biodiversity were depth, coral cover, coral height, and a subset of DSCS taxa. Of the 10 top-ranked DSCS taxa in the gradient forest (out of 39 potential DSCS taxa), 6 also were associated with increased probability of fish presence in the logistic regression. The weight of evidence from these multiple analytical methods suggests that this subset of DSCS taxa are important fish habitats. In this paper we describe methods to characterize demersal communities and highlight which DSCS taxa provide habitat to demersal fishes, which is valuable information to fisheries agencies tasked to manage these fishes and their essential habitats.

California

San Francisco Estuary chlorophyll sensor and sample analysis intercomparison

This report presents an assessment of chlorophyll collection methods and anonymous results of field and laboratory comparisons in 2018 - 2019 by agencies in the San Francisco Estuary (SFE). The methods assessment and comparison exercises, with funding provided by the Delta Regional Monitoring Program and Bay Nutrient Management Strategy and in-kind contributions from participating agencies, are a first step to facilitate future comparisons and syntheses of data and inform best science practices in the region. In situ sonde comparison exercises found general agreement between two models of Yellow Springs Instrument (YSI) sensors, but the newer sensor (EXO v2 - total algae) measured higher chlorophyll fluorescence (fCHL) relative to the older YSI sensor (6-series 6025). Results may be attributed to the use of a two-point calibration and the fluorescence response of algal cultures in sensor development by the manufacturer. The laboratory comparison included participation by 12 distinct field - laboratory pairs (or groups), with one group analyzing filters using two analytical methods. Filters were collected in triplicate across three sampling events in 2018, and all sample results were pooled together. Results of statistical analyses indicated that nominal filter pore size, the grinding method associated with pigment extraction, and analytical methods do not introduce variability to the chlorophyll-a measurement (Chl-a). When Chl-a results were assessed by sample event, however, significant differences between nominal pore size and analytical methods existed; these differences could be attributed to the small sample size per event. Consistent reporting units and high-concentration calibration standards for field sensors among data collection agencies would improve the consistency and comparability of data collected in the SFE. More routine split sampling events, longer term sensor comparison exercises, and further processing and analytical comparisons that control for individual filterers may also enhance comparability in the region.

California

The scaling of geographic ranges: implications for species distribution models

Context The geographic ranges of many species are responding to ongoing environmental change. Processes operating at different levels of biological organization, with corresponding spatial extents and grains and temporal rates, interact with the evolving configuration of environmental conditions to determine range dynamics. Objectives To synthesize understanding of scales and scaling, including relevant biological levels of organization, focusing on the processes that mediate species-environment relationships and the models used to make inferences about species distributions. Methods We review concepts related to the scaling of geographic ranges and implications for the most commonly used analytic methods, using simple simulations to illustrate important issues. Results Many processes lead to species distributions being dependent on environmental conditions within sites and within a neighborhood. Studies with large extents and fine grains can cut across several levels of biological organization (individual, within-population, and metapopulation processes) complicating interpretation. Many geographic ranges are not in dynamic equilibrium, but common models used for inference assume equilibrium. Interspecific interactions shape species distributions at multiple scales, and arguments for ignoring species interactions also assume equilibrium. Conclusions There is a need for timely science to inform policy and management decisions; however, we must also strive to provide predictions that best reflect our understanding of ecological systems. Species distributions evolve through time and reflect responses to environmental conditions that are mediated through individual and population processes. Species distribution models that reflect this understanding, and explicitly model dynamics, are likely to give more accurate predictions.

Landscape Ecology