Methods for estimating selected streamflow statistics at ungaged sites in Wyoming based on data through water year 2021

Nicholas J. Taylor; Roy Sando

doi:10.3133/sir20265120

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Methods for estimating selected streamflow statistics at ungaged sites in Wyoming based on data through water year 2021

Nicholas J. Taylor·Roy Sando

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Abstract

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Wyoming Water Development Office, developed regional regression equations based on basin characteristics and streamflow statistics for streamgages through water year 2021 (October 1, 2020, to September 30, 2021). The regression equations allow estimates of mean annual maximum, mean annual, mean seasonal, and mean monthly streamflows; frequency statistics for the 7-day mean low flows with 2-year and 10-year recurrence intervals, 14- and 30-day mean low flows with 5-year recurrence intervals, and 60- and 1-day mean high flow with 2-year and 5-year recurrence intervals, respectively; and the 0.1-, 0.2-, 0.5-, 1-, 2-, 4-, 5-, 10-, 20-, 25-, 30-, 50-, 60-, 70-, 75-, 80-, 90-, 95-, 98-, and 99-percent durations for annual streamflows and 0.1-, 0.5-, 10-, 15-, 20-, 25-, 30-, 40-, 50-, 60-, 70-, 75-, 80-, 85-, 90-, 95-, and 99-percent durations for monthly streamflows for most months for ungaged locations in Wyoming that are largely unaltered by diversions or upstream reservoirs. Regression equations were developed for 243 streamflow statistics. Best-subset selection was used to assess explanatory variables for respective streamflow statistics. Exploratory data analyses determined that, of the 81 basin characteristics evaluated as potential explanatory variables, characteristics such as drainage area and precipitation often produced models with the highest adjusted coefficient of determination and lowest mean squared error, as determined in the best-subset selection. To address heteroskedasticity of model residuals, model variables were regionalized using fixed-effects models; the percentages of the streamgage basins in selected ecoregions were defined as interaction terms, which represent the model slope for specific ecoregions. Most models were determined to be statistically significant for probability values less than or equal to 0.1 for one or more regional explanatory variables. The final regional regression equations defined in this report are available for use in the U.S. Geological Survey’s StreamStats web application at https://streamstats.usgs.gov/ss/ .

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Nicholas J. Taylor, Roy Sando. 2026-02-26. Methods for estimating selected streamflow statistics at ungaged sites in Wyoming based on data through water year 2021. https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20265120

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