Low-flow statistics computed for streamflow gages and methods for estimating selected low-flow statistics for ungaged stream locations in Ohio, water years 1975–2020

Abstract

A study was conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Ohio Water Development Authority and the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency, to compute low-flow frequency, flow-duration, and harmonic mean flow statistics for long-term streamflow gages and to develop regression equations to estimate those statistics at unregulated, ungaged stream locations in Ohio. The flow statistics were computed with data collected after the 1974 water year because upward trends and statistically significant step changes (occurring after the late 1960s but before 1975) in annual flow statistics were detected at many candidate gages in Ohio. A total of 180 continuous-record gages in Ohio and bordering States were identified as having at least 10 years of daily flow records during the analytical period (water years 1975–2020). Also identified were five low-flow partial-record gages in Ohio that had instantaneous low flows that correlated strongly with daily streamflows at one of the continuous-record gages (also referred to as index gages). For continuous-record gages, the following flow statistics were computed: annual and seasonal minimum 1-, 7-, 30-, and 90-day flows with 2-, 5-, 10-, 20-, and 50-year recurrence intervals; annual and seasonal 98-, 95-, 90-, 85-, 80-, 75-, 70-, 60-, 50-, 40-, 30-, 20-, and 10-percent duration flows; and the harmonic mean flow. For partial-record gages, estimates were made for annual and seasonal minimum 1-, 7-, 30-, and 90-day low flows with 2-, 10-, and 20-year recurrence intervals and annual and seasonal 98-, 95-, 90-, 85-, and 80-percent duration flows. The drainage basin of each gage was inspected for anthropogenic or karst features that could appreciably affect or regulate low flows. That inspection resulted in data from 53 of the 180 continuous-record gages and the 5 low-flow partial-record gages being categorized as “unregulated” and subsequently used in regression analyses to develop equations for estimating low-flow statistics. Two hundred and sixty potential explanatory variables were tested for this study. In most cases, a streamflow-variability index (SVI) was chosen as the sole explanatory variable for the regression analyses to predict the harmonic mean and annual and seasonal low-flow yields. The exceptions were for one of the September–November low-flow yield statistics and all the December–February yield statistics. Drainage area, decimal longitude, and usually SVI were chosen as the explanatory variables for those exceptions and to predict the 80-percent duration flows. The SVI values used in the model were estimated from a geospatial grid of SVI values developed for this study by using an empirical Bayesian kriging regression prediction. Observations for continuous-record gages used in the regression analyses were weighted as a function of their record length. Weights for partial-record gages were estimated based on the weights determined for their index gages. Equations for low-flow yields were developed by using censored regressions with a censoring level of 0.00001 cubic foot per second per square mile. Numerical constraints were placed on the yield equations if they could compute yields less than the yield censoring level or if the yields did not monotonically decrease with increasing SVI. Logistic-regression equations were developed, with SVI and drainage area as explanatory variables, to estimate the probability that the low-flow statistics were greater than the flow censoring level (0.01 cubic foot per second). The regression equations presented in this report were developed for implementation in the Ohio StreamStats application. The equations are applicable to unregulated streams in Ohio and are not applicable to streams with karst drainage features, diversions, regulation, or other anthropogenic activities that can appreciably affect low flow. The equations were developed by using observations with a range of SVI values from 0.41 to 1.23 log10 cubic foot per second and a range of drainage areas from 0.21 to 540 square miles. The applicability of the equations outside these ranges is not known.