Search USGS⌕ Search

USGS · sir20175074

Estimation of the groundwater resources of the bedrock aquifers at the Kettle Moraine Springs State Fish Hatchery, Sheboygan County, Wisconsin

Abstract

Groundwater resources information was needed to understand regional aquifer systems and water available to wells and springs for rearing important Lake Michigan fish species at the Kettle Moraine Springs State Fish Hatchery in Sheboygan County, Wisconsin. As a basis for estimating the groundwater resources available, an existing groundwater-flow model was refined, and new groundwater-flow models were developed for the Kettle Moraine Springs State Fish Hatchery area using the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) finite-difference code MODFLOW. This report describes the origin and construction of these groundwater-flow models and their use in testing conceptual models and simulating the hydrogeologic system. The study area is in the Eastern Ridges and Lowlands geographical province of Wisconsin, and the hatchery property is situated on the southeastern edge of the Kettle Moraine, a north-south trending topographic high of glacial origin. The bedrock units underlying the study area consist of Cambrian, Ordovician, and Silurian units of carbonate and siliciclastic lithology. In the Sheboygan County area, the sedimentary bedrock sequence reaches a thickness of as much as about 1,600 feet (ft). Two aquifer systems are present at the Kettle Moraine Springs State Fish Hatchery. A shallow system is made up of Silurian bedrock, consisting chiefly of dolomite, overlain by unconsolidated Quaternary-age glacial deposits. The glacial deposits of this aquifer system are the typical source of water to local springs, including the springs that have historically supplied the hatchery. The shallow aquifer system, therefore, consists of the unconsolidated glacial aquifer and the underlying bedrock Silurian aquifer. Most residential wells in the area draw from the Silurian aquifer. A deeper confined aquifer system is made up of Cambrian- and Ordovician-age bedrock units including sandstone formations. Because of its depth, very few wells are completed in the Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer system (COAS) near the Kettle Moraine Springs State Fish Hatchery. Three groundwater-flow models were used to estimate the water resources available to the hatchery from bedrock aquifers under selected scenarios of well placement and seasonal water requirements and subject to constraints on the effects of pumping on neighboring wells, local springs, and creeks. Model input data (recharge, water withdrawal, and boundary conditions) for these models were compiled from a number of data and information sources. The first model, named the “KMS model,” (KMS stands for Kettle Moraine Springs) is an inset model derived from a published USGS regional Lake Michigan Basin model and was constructed to simulate groundwater pumping from the semiconfined Silurian aquifer. The second model, named the “Pumping Test model,” was constructed to evaluate an aquifer pumping test conducted in the COAS as part of this project. The Pumping Test model was also used to simulate the local effects of 20 years of groundwater pumping from this deep bedrock aquifer for future hatchery operations. The third model, named the “LMB modified model,” is a version of the published Lake Michigan Basin (LMB) model that was modified with aquifer parameters refined in an area around the hatchery (approximately a 5-mile radius circle, corresponding to the area stressed by the aquifer pumping test). This LMB modified model was applied to evaluate regional effects of pumping from the confined COAS. The available Silurian aquifer groundwater resource was estimated using the KMS model with three scenarios—named “AllConstraints,” “Constraints2,” and “Constraints3”—that specified local water-level and flow constraints such as drawdown at nearby household wells, water levels inside pumping well boreholes, and flow in local streams and springs. Each scenario utilized the MODFLOW Groundwater Management Process (GWM) to select three locations from six candidate locations that provided the greatest combined flow while satisfying the constraints. The three constraint scenarios provided estimates of 430 gallons per minute (gal/min), 480 gal/min, and 520 gal/min pumping from three wells—AllConstraints, Constraints2, and Constraints3, respectively. The same three wells were selected for the scenarios that estimated 480 gal/min and 520 gal/min; the scenario that estimated 430 gal/min shared two of these same wells, but the third selected well was different. The available COAS groundwater resource was estimated by two scenarios with each conducted over a period of 20 years with the Pumping Test model and the LMB modified model . The Pumping Test model was used to simulate local effects of pumping, and the LMB modified model was used to simulate regional effects of pumping. The scenarios simulate a range of total and seasonal pumping rates potentially linked to site activities. Scenario 1 simulates two wells completed in the Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer system, each pumping for 8 months at 300 gal/min, followed by pumping for 4 months at 600 gal/min. The average yearly pumping rate of Scenario 1 is 800 gal/min. Scenario 2 simulates three wells completed in the Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer system pumping for 8 months at 200 gal/min, followed by pumping for 4 months at 500 gal/min. The average yearly pumping rate of Scenario 2 is 900 gal/min. The Pumping Test model simulations confirmed that drawdown in the boreholes of the pumping wells at the selected 2-well or 3-well rates will meet the desired condition that the pumping water level remains at least 100 ft above the highest Cambrian-Ordovician unit open to the well. The LMB modified model was used to evaluate the regional drawdown of the pumping from the confined COAS under the same 2-well and 3-well scenarios. At the nearest known existing COAS well, Campbellsport production well #4, the simulated drawdown for Scenario 1 after 20 years of cyclical pumping with two pumping wells averaging a total of 800 gal/min is 16.9 ft, whereas the simulated drawdown for Scenario 2 after 20 years of pumping with three pumping wells averaging a total of 900 gal/min is 19.0 ft. The total deep aquifer thickness at the Campbellsport location is on the order of 620 ft, meaning that the simulated drawdown for either scenario is about 3 percent of the confined aquifer thickness. The models developed as part of this project are archived in the project data release. The archive includes the model input and output files as well as MODFLOW source code and executables. ( Haserodt and others, 2017 ).

Explore related subjects

90° N90° S · 180° W ← longitude → 180° E
Source-reported bounding extent: 43.5944° to 43.6167° latitude; -88.0889° to -88.0778° longitude. This indicates report coverage, not an exact sampling location. View area on OpenStreetMap.

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

Charles Dunning, Daniel T. Feinstein, Cheryl A. Buchwald, Randall J. Hunt, Megan J. Haserodt. 2017-10-12. Estimation of the groundwater resources of the bedrock aquifers at the Kettle Moraine Springs State Fish Hatchery, Sheboygan County, Wisconsin. https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20175074

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related USGS reports

Evaluating the number of realizations (train-test splits) necessary to ensure robust estimates of conventional hydrothermal resource favorability using Monte Carlo cross-validation, the Great Basin, Western USA

Supervised machine learning approaches used to produce favorability maps in resource assessments commonly partition an input dataset into training and testing subsets (that is, through train-test splits). However, if a single split is not representative of underlying resource conditions, the resulting favorability map may be biased, particularly with sparse or heterogeneous datasets. To mitigate the potential for unrepresentative favorability maps, recent works by U.S. Geological Survey researchers have used Monte Carlo cross-validation to implement a large number ( n) of randomized train-test splits to produce n realizations. The realizations are then aggregated using cell-wise median predictions to produce the resulting final favorability map, recognizing that the median will remove extreme values that might have been estimated from a comparatively few unrepresentative realizations. Theoretically, the median prediction at every cell converges to a single estimate as n approaches infinity, and the question addressed herein is: How many realizations are necessary to get a robust estimate (that is, an estimate unaffected by additional realizations)? Therefore, convergence metrics are described to identify the number of train-test splits and realizations needed to make a reliable map using the data and supervised machine learning workflow for conventional hydrothermal resource assessment of the Great Basin of the Western United States. For this study, robust prediction occurs with n approximately equal to 600 realizations, and smaller ensembles (for example, n is approximately equal to 200 or even 100) may be suitable during preliminary or exploratory analyses. Although the resulting threshold numbers will vary depending on the data and modeling approach used, the convergence metrics proposed and applied herein are applicable to other supervised machine learning studies that use Monte Carlo cross-validation.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Groundwater budget for the Portneuf River Basin, southeastern Idaho

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Idaho Department of Water Resources, developed the first groundwater budget for the upper Portneuf River Basin in southeastern Idaho, a tributary of the Snake River. A groundwater budget for the Portneuf River Basin supports water resource and administrative management decisions within the basin and for downstream users of the eastern Snake River Plain aquifer. The analysis quantifies inflows, outflows, and residuals for an aquifer system defined by the Idaho Department of Water Resources under three recent precipitation conditions: an average year (2016), a dry year (2021), and a wet year (2023). The budget was calculated for the basin and for two subbasins delineated by the U.S. Geological Survey streamgage Portneuf River at Topaz, Idaho (13073000): the above Topaz subbasin, which includes the Portneuf-Gem valley, and the below Topaz subbasin, which includes Marsh Valley. Aquifer inflows include mountain-front recharge; areal recharge; recharge from applied water, including recharge from irrigation, canal seepage, and effluent returns; groundwater flow into the basin; and reservoir seepage. Outflows include groundwater pumping for agricultural, municipal, and domestic uses; subsurface outflow through the Portneuf gap; and discharge to streams as base flow. Estimated annual inflows for the full basin ranged from 116,880 acre-feet in 2021 to 154,880 acre-feet in 2023, and outflows ranged from 132,190 acre-feet in 2016 to 158,490 acre-feet in 2023. Basinwide residuals, the change in storage plus uncertainty, were −2,410 acre-feet in 2016, −18,410 acre-feet in 2021, and −3,610 acre-feet in 2023, and each subbasin had a mixture of negative and positive residuals. These basinwide results, interpreted as change in storage plus water-budget uncertainty, indicate minor net losses that increase with dry conditions, consistent with well depth-to-water measurements indicating gradual multi-decadal declines. Patterns in subbasin residuals are driven by irrigation practices and surface-water management; for example, the above Topaz subbasin relies more on groundwater for irrigation, resulting in more negative residuals during dry years. In contrast, the below Topaz subbasin depends more on surface water, producing positive residuals during dry years because of irrigation losses and canal seepage. The analyses for both subbasins indicate decades-long groundwater declines, which agree with the overall negative residuals calculated. The largest sources of uncertainty include climate inputs (precipitation and evapotranspiration) and poorly constrained components such as groundwater inflow and tributary stream infiltration. These findings provide insight into how climatic variables and irrigation practices affect groundwater inflows and outflows within the Portneuf River Basin.

Idaho↗

World minerals outlook—Antimony, copper, graphite, niobium, potash, silicon, silver, and tungsten through 2030

Demand for mineral commodities continues to increase owing to rapid technological advancements and global economic growth. To support this increase in demand, information about current and near-term supplies of these mineral commodities is essential. Such data help evaluate the health and stability of global supply chains and protect against potential supply risks. Current production and production capacity data coupled with information regarding near-term expected changes (such as facility closures, planned expansions, or the completion of new mineral production projects) can provide insight into expected future market developments and expected available supply of mineral commodities. This report within the “World Minerals Outlook” series analyzes data for antimony, copper, natural graphite, niobium, potash, silicon metal, silver, and tungsten—eight mineral commodities listed in the 2025 List of Critical Minerals. World production data from 2019 through 2025, as well as estimated world capacity data from 2023 through 2025 were analyzed. Using these data, near-term (2026–2030) expected world capacities were estimated. For antimony, copper, niobium, silicon metal, silver, and tungsten, modest increases in production capacity of 4 to 10 percent were expected between 2025 and 2030, whereas capacities for natural graphite and potash were expected to increase by about 18 to 20 percent.

Scientific Investigations Report↗