Summary of preliminary 2D inundation modeling for three Hattian landslide dam breach scenarios

Abstract

On October 8, 2005, a M 7.6 earthquake near Muzafarrabad, Pakistan, triggered a landslide that dammed the Karli River and one of its tributaries about 4 km upstream of the confluence of the Karli and Jhelum rivers near the town of Hattian Bala. The smaller dam on the tributary of the Karli River has been artificially breached and is no longer a hazard. When the larger dammed lake on the Karli River has filled enough to flow over the landslide blockage, it will have impounded about 60 million cubic meters of water. This lake will drain through the landslide dam as it breaches during the spring runoff or during the monsoon season in early summer. The inundation associated with the Karli River landslide dam breach endangers a substantial downstream population, particularly the population located in the vicinity of Hattian Bala at the confluence of the Karli and Jhelum rivers. To help mitigate this hazard, we used an accurate two-dimensional flow model to simulate dambreak flows associated with three breach-rate downcutting scenarios, and estimated inundation depths and peak flow velocities. We superimposed inundation extents and other attributes on photographic images of the region to provide clear delineation of potential impacts on populated areas near the confluence of the Karli and Jhelum rivers.