Countdown to Apophis close approach—Cascading hazards from asteroid impacts

Abstract

Introduction Apophis (officially 99942 Apophis, pronounced “uh-PAW-fiss”) is a Near-Earth Object. Primarily composed of the materials that make up the leftover building blocks of the solar system, Near-Earth Objects are small solar system bodies in an orbit around the Sun that brings them close to the Earth. Apophis has been classified as a “potentially hazardous object,” a Near-Earth Object that may be large enough to cause significant damage in the event of an impact. Apophis is not projected to hit the Earth, but it will come close. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is working with other federal partners, industry, academic institutions, and international cooperators to characterize Apophis, prepare for the flyby on Friday, April 13, 2029, and develop investigative and mitigation strategies for potential impacts from other Near-Earth Objects. Close approaches of objects the size of Apophis (approximately 340 meters in diameter) or larger are considered rare events, occurring every few thousand years or so. Although Apophis will not impact Earth, the Specific Action Team was convened and included USGS participation, to (1) identify and quantify effects on Apophis from its close flyby with Earth; (2) assess the importance of measuring these effects; (3) categorize these effects according to different tiers of detectable limits; and (4) assess the risk to Earth of a spacecraft rendezvous with Apophis.