Extreme droughts shrink suitable habitats and reduce fitness for large mammals in the American West

Abstract

Droughts are intensifying across the biosphere, yet the consequences of this phenomenon for wildlife habitat suitability and fitness are poorly studied. We analyzed 12 years of GPS telemetry data for three large mammal species—herbivorous mule deer ( N = 2854), omnivorous black bears ( N = 103), and carnivorous cougars ( N = 105)—to evaluate the effects of drought on each species’ habitat selection across a 500,000-km 2 aridity gradient in the interior West, USA. Additionally, we evaluated interannual variation in mule deer reproduction as a function of drought intensity. Severe drought reduced the area of highly selected habitat by 10.0% for mule deer, 14.3% for black bears, and 18.2% for cougars, suggesting stronger negative effects of drought at upper trophic levels. We also found that mule deer fawn recruitment decreased by >34% under extreme drought conditions. Our findings highlight the critical influence of drought on habitat selection of large mammals and common indices of mule deer fitness. Furthermore, we underscore the need for integrating predictions of climate-driven environmental changes into wildlife conservation planning.