Global primary and secondary microseism multi-decade geographic variation, secular intensification, and period lengthening

Abstract

Earth's long-period background seismic wavefield is dominated by two distinct processes that couple ocean wave energy to a global microseism wavefield. We assess global microseism intensity in the secondary (4–10 s) and primary (14–20 s) bands, and across eight 2 s-wide period bands between 4 and 20 s. Robustly estimated primary and secondary secular amplitude trends are estimated at 73 globally distributed seismic station sites with continuous recording spanning at least 20 years, from as early as the late 1980s through October 2025. These trends are positive at 3⁢𝜎 significance for 61 (84%) and 46 (63%) stations with global average rates for vertical-component acceleration of 0.17 ± 0.04 and 0.11 ± 0.05%/yr, for the primary and secondary bands, respectively, with corresponding rates of energy increase of 0.27 ± 0.08 and 0.15 ± 0.09%/yr. Secular intensification is also observed within all 2 s period bands between 4 and 20 s. Amplitude histories for the longest primary microseism periods (18–20 s) correlate to near-antipodal distances, reflecting long-range teleconnections attributed to large-fetch storm systems, long-range swell and Rayleigh wave propagation, and geographically correlated El Niño Southern Oscillation and other geographically extensive atmospheric influences on storms and waves. The lower average rates of intensification for the secondary microseism suggest that crossing wave systems in remote regions are either under-observed or are intensifying more slowly than the primary microseism, possibly due to increasing swell unidirectionality. Secular intensification is greatest at the longest primary microseism periods. This is consistent with a broadening of the global ocean wave spectrum by approximately 0.01%/yr which may reflect an increasing occurrence of large storm systems.