Creep rate models for the 2023 US National Seismic Hazard Model: Physically constrained inversions for the distribution of creep on California faults

Abstract

Widespread surface creep is observed across a number of active faults included in the United States (US) National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM). In northern California, creep occurs on the central section of the San Andreas fault, along the Hayward and Calaveras faults through the San Francisco Bay Area, and to the north coast region along the Maacama and Bartlett Springs faults. In southern California, creep is observed across the Coachella segment of the San Andreas fault, through the Brawley Seismic Zone, and along the Imperial and Superstition Hills faults. Seismic hazard assessments for California have accounted for creep using various data and methods, including the most recent Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3) in 2013. The purpose of this study is to expand and update the UCERF3 creep rate data set for the 2023 release of the US NSHM and to invert geodetic data and the surface creep rate data for the spatial distribution of interseismic fault creep on California faults using an elastic model with physical creep constraints. The updated surface creep rate compilation consists of a variety of data types including alignment arrays, offset cultural markers, creepmeters, Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar, and Global Positioning System data. We compile a total of 497 surface creep rate measurements, 400 of which are new and 97 of which appear in the UCERF3 compilation. We compute creep rate distributions for each of the five 2023 NSHM geodetic‐based and geologic‐based deformation models. Computed creep rates are used to reduce the total fault moment rate available for earthquake sequences in the NSHM model. We find that, despite relatively large variability in model long‐term slip rates across all five deformation models, the variability in depth‐averaged creep rate across all models is relatively small, typically 5–10 mm/yr along the creeping San Andreas fault section and only 2–4 mm/yr along the Maacama and Rodgers Creek‐Hayward faults.