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Improvements to the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast ETAS Model (UCERF3‐ETAS)

Edward H. Field·Kevin R. Milner·Morgan T. Page·William H. Savran·Nicholas van der Elst
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Abstract

We describe recent improvements to the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast ETAS Model (UCERF3‐ETAS), which continues to represent our most advanced and complete earthquake forecast in terms of relaxing segmentation assumptions and representing multifault ruptures, elastic‐rebound effects, and spatiotemporal clustering (the latter to represent aftershocks and otherwise triggered events). The two main improvements include adding aleatory variability in aftershock productivity and the option to represent off‐fault events with finite‐rupture surfaces. We also summarize the studies that led to these modifications, and reflect on how past and future uses of the model can improve our understanding of earthquake processes and the hazards and risks they pose.

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90° N90° S · 180° W ← longitude → 180° E
Source-reported bounding extent: 32.534156° to 42.009247° latitude; -124.409591° to -114.134768° longitude. This indicates report coverage, not an exact sampling location. View area on OpenStreetMap.

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Edward H. Field, Kevin R. Milner, Morgan T. Page, William H. Savran, Nicholas van der Elst. 2021-09-09. Improvements to the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast ETAS Model (UCERF3‐ETAS). https://doi.org/10.1785/0320210017

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