Search USGS⌕ Search
Home/Archive/USGS

USGS · 70176074

Correlated declines in Pacific arctic snow and sea ice cover

Robert P. Stone·David C. Douglas·Gennady I. Belchansky·Sheldon Drobot
View original source ↗Read source document ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

Simulations of future climate suggest that global warming will reduce Arctic snow and ice cover, resulting in decreased surface albedo (reflectivity). Lowering of the surface albedo leads to further warming by increasing solar absorption at the surface. This phenomenon is referred to as “temperature–albedo feedback.” Anticipation of such a feedback is one reason why scientists look to the Arctic for early indications of global warming. Much of the Arctic has warmed significantly. Northern Hemisphere snow cover has decreased, and sea ice has diminished in area and thickness. As reported in the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment in 2004, the trends are considered to be outside the range of natural variability, implicating global warming as an underlying cause. Changing climatic conditions in the high northern latitudes have influenced biogeochemical cycles on a broad scale. Warming has already affected the sea ice, the tundra, the plants, the animals, and the indigenous populations that depend on them. Changing annual cycles of snow and sea ice also affect sources and sinks of important greenhouse gases (such as carbon dioxide and methane), further complicating feedbacks involving the global budgets of these important constituents. For instance, thawing permafrost increases the extent of tundra wetlands and lakes, releasing greater amounts of methane into the atmosphere. Variable sea ice cover may affect the hemispheric carbon budget by altering the ocean–atmosphere exchange of carbon dioxide. There is growing concern that amplification of global warming in the Arctic will have far-reaching effects on lower latitude climate through these feedback mechanisms. Despite the diverse and convincing observational evidence that the Arctic environment is changing, it remains unclear whether these changes are anthropogenically forced or result from natural variations of the climate system. A better understanding of what controls the seasonal distributions of snow and ice is fundamental to the problem.

Explore related subjects

Arctic Research of the United StatesArticle

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

Robert P. Stone, David C. Douglas, Gennady I. Belchansky, Sheldon Drobot. 2005. Correlated declines in Pacific arctic snow and sea ice cover. https://pubs.usgs.gov/publication/70176074

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related USGS reports

USGS2003

Demography of Dall's sheep in northwestern Alaska

Dall’s sheep in northwestern Alaska declined in the early 1990s following the severe 1989-90 and 1990-91 winters. In the Baird Mountains of Noatak National Preserve, estimates of adult sheep declined by 50% from 800 in 1989 to under 400 in 1991. Population counts remained low throughout 1991 to 1996, reaching a minimum of 244 adult sheep in 1996. Few lambs were observed during annual midsummer aerial surveys in 1991 to 1994. We suspect that these declines resulted from a combination of poorer nutritional condition and increased vulnerability of sheep to predation resulting from severe winter conditions. As a result of these declines, both subsistence and sport hunting seasons were closed by emergency order in 1991, resulting in substantial management controversy. The affected publics, although willing to accept the closures, questioned the validity of the sheep survey data and strongly emphasized their interest in restoring harvests as soon as populations increased sufficiently. In 1995 the Northwest Arctic Regional Advisory Council, the local advisory committee for the Federal Subsistence Board, passed a motion supporting efforts to initiate research on sheep populations in the region to better understand the factors limiting sheep populations and to evaluate sheep survey methodologies. Currently estimates of Dall’s sheep population size and composition in the western Brooks Range are based on intensive fixed-wing aerial surveys conducted annually since 1986 in areas including the Baird Mountains. The annual variation in recent Baird Mountains aerial counts cannot be explained with reasonable assumptions about reproduction and survival, suggesting that there is some variability in the proportion of the population observed each year or that a substantial number of sheep move during the survey. Prior to our research, no attempt had been made to estimate visibility bias or precision for these surveys. Our understanding of Dall’s sheep population biology comes largely from studies in central or southern Alaska and the southern Yukon. However, sheep in northwestern Alaska are at the northwestern extreme of their range and live in a less hospitable environment characterized by short growing seasons and long, severe winters. We expect patterns of productivity and survival for sheep in Noatak National Preserve to differ from the more southerly populations. To adequately manage sheep harvests in northwestern Alaska, we need a better understanding of sheep demography. Along with unbiased population estimates, understanding the dynamics of sheep populations in the region will allow population models to be developed that can provide focus for a useful dialog on management goals and strategies and facilitate a cooperative strategy for managing sheep harvests in northwestern Alaska.

Alaska↗
USGS2000

Estimating the impacts of oil spills on polar bears

The polar bear is the apical predator and universal symbol of the Arctic. They occur throughout the Arctic marine environment wherever sea ice is prevalent. In the southern Beaufort Sea, polar bears are most common within the area of the outer continental shelf, where the hunt for seals along persistent leads and openings in the ice. Polar bears are a significant cultural and subsistence component of the lifestyles of indigenous people. They may also be one of the most important indicators of the health of the Arctic marine environment. Polar bears have a late age of maturation, a long inter0brth period, and small liter sizes. These life history features make polar bear populations susceptible to natural and human perturbations. Petroleum exploration and extraction have been in progress along the coast of northern Alaska for more than 25 years. Until recently, most activity has taken place on the mainland or at sites connected to the shore by a causeway. In 1999, BP Exploration-Alaska began constructing the first artificial production island designed to transport oil through sub-seafloor pipelines. Other similar projects have been proposed to begin in the next several years. The proximity of oil exploration and development to principal polar bear habitats raises concerns, and with the advent of true off-shore development projects, these concerns are compounded. Contact with oil and other industrial chemicals by polar bears, through grooming, consumption of tainted food, or direct consumption of chemicals, may be lethal. The active ice where polar bears hunt is also where spilled oil may be expected to concentrate during spring break-up and autumn freeze-up. Because of this, we could expect that an oil spill in the waters and ice of the continental shelf would have profound effects on polar bears. Assessments of the effects of spills, however, have not been done. This report described a promising method for estimating the effects of oil spills on polar bears in the Arctic marine environment. It uses enough real data to illuminate necessary calculations and illustrate the value of the methods. The results and conclusions presented here are only examples of possible scenarios resulting from a new estimation method. Final assessment of the potential impacts to polar bears of an oil spill remains a work in progress.

Alaska, Northwest Territories, Yukon↗