Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) ‐ New functionality for predicting changes in distribution of submerged aquatic vegetation in response to sea level rise

Abstract

Introduction Submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) is an ecologically important habitat world‐wide. In Pacific Northwest (PNW) estuaries, SAV in the lower intertidal and shallow subtidal habitats are dominated by the native seagrass, Zostera marina Linnaeus, 1753. Within this report, SAV and seagrass refer to Z. marina seagrass beds in PNW estuaries. Z. marina provides important habitat for juvenile salmon, dungeness crabs, migratory shore birds, and benthic assemblages (e.g., Philips, 1984; Williamson, 2006; Ferraro and Cole, 2007; Shaughnessy et al., 2012). Z. marina typically occurs in a narrow depth range. For example, in Oregon estuaries Zostera marina primarily occurs within the depth range of ‐1 to +1 m relative to Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW) (Young et al. 2012). Because of their narrow depth range, the distribution of these seagrass beds are potentially vulnerable to sea level rise (SLR) through increased water depths and associated reductions in underwater light levels, alterations in tidal variations, altered water movement and wave action, and increased seawater intrusion (Short and Neckles, 1999). The “Sea‐Level Affecting Marshes Model” (SLAMM) is a moderate resolution model used to predict the effects of sea level rise on marsh habitats (Craft et al. 2009). SLAMM has been used extensively on both the west coast (e.g., Glick et al., 2007) and east coast (e.g., Geselbracht et al., 2011) of the United States to evaluate potential changes in the distribution and extent of tidal marsh habitats. However, a limitation of the current version of SLAMM, (Version 6.2) is that it lacks the ability to model distribution changes in seagrass habitat resulting from sea level rise. Because of the ecological importance of SAV habitats, U.S. EPA, USGS, and USDA partnered with Warren Pinnacle Consulting to enhance the SLAMM modeling software to include new functionality in order to predict changes in Zostera marina distribution within Pacific Northwest estuaries in response to sea level rise. Specifically, the objective was to develop a SAV model that used generally available GIS data and parameters that were predictive and that could be customized for other estuaries that have GIS layers of existing SAV distribution. This report describes the procedure used to develop the SAV model for the Yaquina Bay Estuary, Oregon, appends a statistical script based on the open source R software to generate a similar SAV model for other estuaries that have data layers of existing SAV, and describes how to incorporate the model coefficients from the site‐specific SAV model into SLAMM to predict the effects of sea level rise on Zostera marina distributions. To demonstrate the applicability of the R tools, we utilize them to develop model coefficients for Willapa Bay, Washington using site‐specific SAV data.