Search USGSSearch

USGS · 70026270

Winter orographic precipitation ratios in the Sierra Nevada: Large-scale atmospheric circulations and hydrologic consequences

Abstract

The extent to which winter precipitation is orographically enhanced within the Sierra Nevada of California varies from storm to storm, and season to season, from occasions when precipitation rates at low and high altitudes are almost the same to instances when precipitation rates at middle elevations (considered here) can be as much as 30 times more than at the base of the range. Analyses of large-scale conditions associated with orographic precipitation variations during storms and seasons from 1954 to 1999 show that strongly orographic storms most commonly have winds that transport water vapor across the range from a more nearly westerly direction than during less orographic storms and than during the largest overall storms, and generally the strongly orographic storms are less convectively stable. Strongly orographic conditions often follow heavy precipitation events because both of these wind conditions are present in midlatitude cyclones that form the cores of many Sierra Nevada storms. Storms during La Niña winters tend to yield larger orographic ratios (ORs) than do those during El Niños. A simple experiment with a model of streamflows from a river basin draining the central Sierra Nevada indicates that, for a fixed overall basin-precipitation amount, a decrease in OR contributes to larger winter flood peaks and smaller springtime flows, and thus to an overall hastening of the runoff season.

Explore related subjects

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

M. Dettinger, K. Redmond, D. Cayan. 2004-12-01. Winter orographic precipitation ratios in the Sierra Nevada: Large-scale atmospheric circulations and hydrologic consequences. https://doi.org/10.1175/jhm-390.1

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related USGS reports

Trends in subdaily to daily rainfall in Florida, 1990–2022

Changing rainfall patterns and intensifying rainfall extremes affect urban infrastructure and can increase flash-flood risk. Understanding how climate change has altered rainfall can support state and local agencies as they adapt and build resiliency. In this study, rainfall data from 23 weather stations in Florida were used to examine temporal and spatial trends over the period 1990–2022. Subdaily to daily rainfall events of durations 1, 2, 3, 6, 12, and 24 h were examined. A variety of statistical methods were applied to examine annual and seasonal trends, including quantile regression, extreme value analysis, run theory using the Mann–Kendall test, Sen–Theil slope, and Poisson and negative binomial tests, and threshold exceedance rates using generalized additive models. Using subdaily rainfall data posed challenges, including equipment failures, limited documentation of the quality assurance and control process, and potential measurement interferences. Results indicated that over 1990–2022, there was a decrease in hourly rainfall extremes but an increase at moderate quantiles. Overall, the number of rainfall events increased, particularly at shorter durations, but the mean total rainfall per event decreased. Additionally, the annual number of daily rainfall extremes showed more decreases than increases.

Florida

Alaskan hydrology in transition: Changing precipitation and evapotranspiration patterns are projected to reshape seasonal streamflow and water temperature by midcentury (2035-2064)

High spatial and temporal resolution models are essential for understanding future climate impacts and developing effective climate resilience plans. However, existing regional and global river models often lack the resolution needed to accurately capture local conditions. This study uses a series of high-resolution models, including the Regional Arctic System Model, mizuRoute, and the river basin model, to analyze Arctic and sub-Arctic Alaskan hydrology. We compare a historical baseline (1991–2020) with six midcentury (2035–64) futures: two pseudo–global warming scenarios based on historical meteorology and four direct dynamically downscaled global climate models. The six futures reveal significant uncertainty in future annual discharge and peak flows, although a widespread increase in discharge during April (+63%) and October (+31%) is consistently shown across models. Projected increases in rain and shifting weather patterns lead to a transition from snow to rain in spring and autumn, reducing the fraction of snowmelt contributing to river discharge. Rising evapotranspiration moderates discharge changes, particularly in autumn, by offsetting precipitation increases. Average summer river temperatures are projected to increase by approximately 1.5°C, doubling the number of river segments that experience 18°C days, a critical threshold for salmon survival, and intensifying the heat flux to the ocean adding an average of 3.3 × 10 12 MJ yr −1 . These changes in the hydrologic cycle could profoundly impact riverine and oceanic ecosystems, posing substantial challenges to communities reliant on these environments.

Alaska, Yukon

Wet antecedent soil moisture increases atmospheric river streamflow magnitudes non-linearly

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) drive most riverine floods on the United States (U.S.) West Coast. However, estimating flood risk based solely on AR intensity and duration is challenging because precipitation phase, antecedent conditions, and physical watershed characteristics (e.g., slope and soil depth) can influence the magnitude of floods. Here, we analyze how antecedent soil moisture (ASM) conditions contribute to variability in streamflow during AR events and how that changes across climatic regimes and physiography in 122 U.S. West Coast watersheds. We identify a robust non-linear relationship between streamflow and ASM during ARs in 89% of watersheds. The inflection point in this relationship represents a watershed-specific critical ASM threshold, above which event maximum streamflow is, on average, two to four and a half times larger. Wet ASM conditions amplify the hydrologic impacts of more frequent but weaker, lower moisture transport AR events, while dry ASM conditions attenuate the hydrologic impacts that stronger, higher moisture transport AR events could otherwise cause. Our research shows that watersheds prone to ASM-amplified streamflows have higher evaporation ratios, lower cold-season precipitation, lower snow-to-rain ratios, and shallower, clay-rich soils. Higher evaporation and lower precipitation lead to greater ASM variability during the cold season, increasing streamflow during wet periods and buffering streamflow during dry periods. Lower snow fraction and shallower soils limit the antecedent water storage capacity of a watershed, contributing to greater sensitivity of streamflow peaks to ASM variability. Incorporating ASM thresholds into hydrologic models in these regions prone to AR-amplified streamflow could improve forecasts and decrease uncertainty.

California, Nevada, Oregon, Washington