Prospects for eruption prediction in near real-time

B. Voight; Reinold R. Cornelius

doi:10.1038/350695a0

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Prospects for eruption prediction in near real-time

B. Voight·Reinold R. Cornelius

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Abstract

The 'materials science' method for eruption prediction 1–3 arises from the application of a general law governing the failure of materials: Ω ⊙ −α Ω¨ − A = 0, where A and α are empirical constants, and Ω is an observable quantity such as ground deformation, seismicity or gas emission. This law leads to the idea of the 'inverse-rate' plot, in which the time of failure can be estimated by extrapolation of the curve of Ω −1 versus time to a pre-deter-mined intercept. Here we suggest that this method can be combined with real-time seismic amplitude monitoring to provide a tool for near-real-time eruption prediction, and we demonstrate how it might have been used to predict two dome-growth episodes at Mount St Helens volcano in 1985 and 1986, and two explosive eruptions at Redoubt volcano in 1989–90.

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Source-reported bounding extent: 46.17151850775056° to 46.27326279023282° latitude; -122.29306253215135° to -122.06669011450889° longitude. This indicates report coverage, not an exact sampling location. View area on OpenStreetMap.

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B. Voight, Reinold R. Cornelius. 1991. Prospects for eruption prediction in near real-time. https://doi.org/10.1038/350695a0

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