Search USGS⌕ Search
Home/Archive/USGS

USGS · 70006253

Past and predicted future changes in the land cover of the Upper Mississippi River floodplain, USA

N. R. De Jager·J.J. Rohweder·J.C. Nelson
View original source ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

This study provides one historical and two alternative future contexts for evaluating land cover modifications within the Upper Mississippi River (UMR) floodplain. Given previously documented changes in land use, river engineering, restoration efforts and hydro-climatic changes within the UMR basin and floodplain, we wanted to know which of these changes are the most important determinants of current and projected future floodplain land cover. We used Geographic Information System data covering approximately 37% of the UMR floodplain (3232 km 2 ) for ca 1890 (pre-lock and dam) and three contemporary periods (1975, 1989 and 2000) across which river restoration actions have increased and hydro-climatic changes have occurred. We further developed two 50-year future scenarios from the spatially dependent land cover transitions that occurred from 1975 to 1989 (scenario A) and from 1989 to 2000 (scenario B) using Markov models.Land cover composition of the UMR did not change significantly from 1975 to 2000, indicating that current land cover continues to reflect historical modifications that support agricultural production and commercial navigation despite some floodplain restoration efforts and variation in river discharge. Projected future land cover composition based on scenario A was not significantly different from the land cover for 1975, 1989 or 2000 but was different from the land cover of scenario B, which was also different from all other periods. Scenario B forecasts transition of some forest and marsh habitat to open water by the year 2050 for some portions of the northern river and projects that some agricultural lands will transition to open water in the southern portion of the river. Future floodplain management and restoration planning efforts in the UMR should consider the potential consequences of continued shifts in hydro-climatic conditions that may occur as a result of climate change and the potential effects on floodplain land cover.

Explore related subjects

River Research and ApplicationsArticle

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

N. R. De Jager, J.J. Rohweder, J.C. Nelson. 2011-12-08. Past and predicted future changes in the land cover of the Upper Mississippi River floodplain, USA. https://doi.org/10.1002/rra.1615

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related USGS reports

USGS2026

How tough a passage? Nonnative fish entrainment survivability at a major dam in the western USA

The Colorado River downstream of Glen Canyon Dam (GCD) in the southwest USA demonstrates anthropogenic modification including altered flow and temperature regimes and established nonnative species in upstream reservoirs. Water overallocation and megadrought are contributing to new potential invasion pathways for nonnative fishes through dam releases. In this study, we quantified factors that influence survival of fish entrained at GCD, a pathway for nonnative fishes to leave Lake Powell and enter the Grand Canyon as reservoir levels remain near historic lows since the reservoir initially filled. We measured conditions of entrainment through GCD using a mechanical Sensor Fish device and evaluated potential barotrauma by comparing our results to previous studies. Under measured conditions, a fish's gas bladder would expand by a factor of 2.7 due to entrainment, potentially resulting in injury from barotrauma. We estimated members of Centrarchidae may survive entrainment at problematically high rates across all water levels where entrainment is expected. Minimizing nonnative fish entrainment through GCD is best achieved through maintenance of water levels higher than those in recent years, potentially decreasing both entrainment likelihood and survival.

Arizona↗
USGS2026

IVyTools: Space-Time Image Velocimetry for streamflow

Accurate streamflow measurements are essential for hydrologic monitoring, flood forecasting, and water resource management. Traditional in situ methods, although reliable, are often impractical or unsafe during flood conditions or at inaccessible locations. Image velocimetry techniques offer a potential non-contact alternative, yet operational adoption has been hindered by the lack of standardized, open-source tools, particularly for Space–Time Image Velocimetry (STIV). This paper introduces IVyTools, an open-source software application for operational streamflow measurement using STIV. Developed by the US Geological Survey (USGS), IVyTools integrates standardized streamflow measurement protocols into a reproducible, quality-controlled workflow that includes video preprocessing, orthorectification, velocity estimation, and streamflow (discharge) computation. The software incorporates a dual-method uncertainty framework based on ISO 748:2007 and an adapted Interpolated Variance Estimator (IVE), enabling users to quantify and diagnose measurement uncertainty. Validation against an independently published benchmark dataset demonstrates that IVyTools achieves a mean absolute percentage error of 4.56% (MAE = 5.16 m 3 /s ) from field-measured reference discharges, with acceptable performance across diverse river conditions. This work supports the broader adoption of image-based streamflow measurement methods and provides a foundation for potential future automation and integration into real-time hydrologic networks.

River Research and Applications↗
USGS2026

Non-physical barrier design and environmental conditions alter routing and survival of juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta

Pacific salmon face substantial challenges when migrating through anthropogenically modified river systems, such as the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta (the Delta). Non-physical behavioral barriers, such as the bioacoustic fish fence (BAFF), are one potential solution for guiding fish away from hazards without obstructing water flow. However, the effectiveness of these technologies depends on abiotic and biotic conditions. In the Delta, a BAFF was deployed at Georgiana Slough in 2011, 2012, and 2024 to deter juvenile Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) from migrating into the interior Delta, a region associated with lower survival than the mainstem Sacramento River. We leveraged nine years of acoustic telemetry data to evaluate BAFF performance across flow conditions and two BAFF designs (2011/2012 vs. 2024), and to assess the BAFF's contribution to improving through-Delta survival. The BAFF reduced routing into Georgiana Slough from 26.5% without a barrier to 8.9% in 2011/2012 and 15.9% in 2024. In general, routing into Georgiana Slough increased with the proportion of flow entering the channel during periods without a BAFF and during the 2024 deployment but remained constant during the 2011/2012 deployment. Additionally, BAFF effectiveness declined with increasing input flow. Ultimately, reduced routing into Georgiana Slough during the 2024 BAFF deployment resulted in an increase in estimated through-Delta survival between 0.2 and 1.6 percentage points depending on release group. Our results provide valuable insights into the role of non-physical barriers in complex river systems and inform future management strategies for protecting migrating juvenile Chinook salmon in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta.

California↗