Geology topics

Research about Washington

Source-linked reports with geographic coverage including Washington.

At least 163 records · Page 9Linked to original sources

USGS2023

Advances in our understanding of pyroclastic current behavior from the 1980 eruption sequence of Mount St. Helens volcano (Washington), USA

This review summarizes what the volcanology community has learned thus far from studying the deposits of pyroclastic currents (PC) from the 1980 eruption sequence at Mount St. Helens. The review includes mass flow events during the May 18 eruption, including the lateral blast, the afternoon column collapse and boil-over PC activity, and some aspects of the debris avalanche. We also include a summary of PCs generated in the smaller eruptions following the climactic May 18 event. Our objective is to summarize the state of our understanding of PC transport and emplacement mechanisms from the combination of field and laboratory observations, granular flow experiments, and numerical modeling techniques. Specifically, we couple deposit characteristics, experiments, and numerical modeling techniques to critically address the problems of (1) constraining conditions in the flow boundary zone at the time of deposition, (2) the influence of substrate roughness and topography on PC behavior, (3) the prevalence, causes, and consequences of substrate erosion by PCs, and (4) the reconstruction of PC transportation and sedimentation processes from a combination of geophysical and sedimentological observations. We conclude by providing opportunities for future research as our field, experimental, and numerical research techniques advance.

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USGS2023

Salvage using electrofishing methods caused minimal mortality of burrowed and emerged larval lampreys in dewatered habitats

Objective Human-induced dewatering of freshwater habitats causes mortality of larval lampreys (family Petromyzontidae). Salvage by electrofishing at dewatering events is assumed to reduce this mortality, but to our knowledge this assumption remains unassessed. Methods We estimated mortality of salvaged larval lampreys ( Lampetra spp. and Pacific Lamprey Entosphenus tridentatus ) within 24 h following collection at field dewatering events in July and October. To assess when salvage may reduce mortality, we compared mortality of salvaged individuals from field dewatering events to mortality of burrowed and emerged individuals in dewatered habitats in the laboratory. Salvage protocols included electrofishing and foot pressure from walking in test enclosures before and after dewatering. Electrofishing after dewatering (“dry shocking”) involves positioning probes on moist sediment to entice burrowed larval lampreys to emerge. Result During the July salvage, air temperature averaged 36°C, bottom water temperature averaged 20°C, and many emerged larval lampreys were dead on the sediment surface. During two October events, air temperatures averaged 18 and 11°C, bottom water temperatures averaged 12 and 7°C, and only one dead emerged larval lamprey was observed. Estimated mortality of salvaged larval lampreys was 0.20 (90% credible interval = 0.09–0.37) in July and 0.00 (90% credible interval = 0.00–0.06) and 0.06 (90% credible interval = 0.01–0.18) in October. All larval lampreys that remained burrowed and were excavated from enclosures after salvage were dead in July but alive in October. Logistic regression suggested that mortality declined with increasing larval length. Mortality of salvaged 80-mm larval lampreys in October was lower than that of 80-mm individuals emerged for 1 h or burrowed for 8 h at similar water temperatures (8–10°C) in the laboratory. Conclusion In this study, electrofishing for salvage caused minimal mortality of burrowed and emerged larval lampreys in dewatered habitats. Thus, salvage using electrofishing methods could aid conservation of native lampreys by reducing mortality associated with human-induced dewatering events, especially when temperatures are elevated.

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USGS2023

Changes in suspended-sediment yields under divergent land-cover disturbance histories: A comparison of two large watersheds, Olympic Mountains, USA

Improvements in timber harvest practices and reductions in harvest volumes over the past half century are commonly presumed to have reduced sediment loads in many western US rivers. However, direct assessments in larger watersheds are relatively sparse. Here, we compare 2019–21 sediment concentrations against those of the late 1970s in the Bogachiel and Calawah River watersheds, adjacent and similarly sized (~300 km 2 ) basins in the western Olympic Mountains of Washington State. The Calawah River watershed has experienced significant land-cover disturbance, including a large 1951 fire, extensive post-fire salvage logging, and relatively high rates of timber harvest through the 1990s. In contrast, the Bogachiel River watershed did not burn, and experienced only modest timber harvest that largely post-dated 1970s sediment monitoring. Channel-width trends suggest the Calawah River was still recovering from 1950s disturbances in the late 1970s. We found that 2019–21 suspended-sediment loads in the Calawah River were 2.3–2.6 times lower than would have been expected based on 1970s sediment rating curves, while recent loads in the Bogachiel River were a factor of 1.4 ± 1.0 lower. We consider the plausibility and possible explanations of declining concentrations in the less-disturbed Bogachiel River. Suspended-sediment yields in the Bogachiel River were two times higher than yields in the Calawah River, which is attributed to a combination of modestly higher precipitation, more efficient runoff generation, and more extensive and erodible Quaternary valley fills in the Bogachiel River. Regional shifts in flood hydrology have also influenced suspended-sediment loads in both watersheds. Our results then document a significant decline in suspended-sediment concentrations in the Calawah River over the past half century. Reduced land-cover disturbance provides the simplest and most likely explanation for this decline, though the wide range of possible concentration changes in the Bogachiel River leaves open possibilities that other processes (human, natural, or methodologic) could be a factor.

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USGS2023

Juvenile salmonid monitoring to assess natural recolonization following removal of Condit Dam on the White Salmon River, Washington, 2016–21

Condit Dam was removed from river kilometer (rkm) 5.3 of the White Salmon River, Washington, in 2011 and 2012 after blocking upstream passage of anadromous fish for nearly 100 years. The dam removal opened habitat upstream and improved habitat downstream with addition of cobble and gravel to a reach depauperate of spawning and rearing habitat. We assessed juvenile anadromous salmonid abundance and distribution in the subbasin from 2016 through 2021 to evaluate the efficacy of natural recolonization. We sampled for outmigrant smolts and other life-history stages at a rotary screw trap at rkm 2.3 and for juvenile abundance at sites in Buck and Rattlesnake Creeks, two primary tributaries upstream from the former dam location. We estimated smolt abundance of steelhead ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) and coho salmon ( O. kisutch ) at the screw-trap site during most years of the study. High flow and missed trapping days in 2017 precluded estimates, and the trap was not fished during 2020 because of the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Steelhead smolt-abundance estimates ranged from 3,581 to 5,851 fish; coho salmon smolt-abundance estimates ranged from 1,093 to 1,773 fish, although in 2021, only 2 coho salmon smolt were captured and no estimate was made. Other species and life stages also were captured in the screw trap. Steelhead and coho salmon fry and parr, and Chinook salmon ( O. tshawytscha ) fry were captured, indicating the presence and likely use of improved habitat downstream from the former dam site by multiple life stages and spawning success upstream from the screw-trap site. Chinook salmon fry were captured, indicating spawning success upstream from the screw-trap site. Fry numbers varied greatly by day and year. Yearly variation in Chinook and coho salmon fry numbers may have been influenced by high flows following spawning causing redd scour and egg-to-fry mortality. Three bull trout ( Salvelinus confluentus ) were caught in the screw trap, one in June 2018, one in June 2019, and one in June 2021. All three bull trout showed smolt characteristics and were tagged with passive integrated transponders (PITs). The bull trout captured in June 2018 was detected at Bonneville Dam Corner Collector several days later, indicating likely anadromy. We also captured lamprey in the screw trap: 44 during 2018, 31 during 2019, and 11 during 2021; we believe most were adult brook lamprey ( Lampetra richardsoni ), although some could have been Pacific lamprey ( Entosphenus tridentatus ) macropthalmia. We confirmed the presence of juvenile steelhead (through smolt origin data) and coho salmon in Mill, Buck, and Rattlesnake Creeks, which are all upstream from the former site of Condit Dam. Juvenile salmonid abundance sampling at a site in Buck Creek during 2016–20 indicated the presence of juvenile coho salmon in all years except 2020. Total salmonid abundance (steelhead and coho salmon combined) at the Buck Creek site each year exceeded abundance in sampling prior to dam removal in 2009 and 2010. Juvenile salmonid abundance sampling in Rattlesnake Creek during 2016–20 indicated the presence of juvenile coho salmon in 2017, 2018, and 2019. Total juvenile salmonid abundance at the Rattlesnake Creek site was highly variable, sometimes exceeding and sometimes less than abundance prior to dam removal during 2001–05. During the period covered by this report, adult salmonid returns to the Columbia River were decreasing, largely because of marine survival. The extent to which this basin-wide decrease affected adult returns and juvenile populations in the White Salmon River subbasin is not known. Despite a period of poor marine survival, PIT-tagged smolt and juvenile steelhead and coho salmon from the screw trap and tributaries returned to Bonneville Dam. Smolt-to-adult return rates from the screw trap to Bonneville Dam were similar to those in other nearby rivers during this period. However, data are still incomplete for some years and sample sizes were low. Future tagging and monitoring would be beneficial to track this valuable metric. Genetic samples from steelhead smolt and parr collected at the screw trap and some main-stem electrofishing during 2016 were analyzed for Genetic Stock Identification (GSI) by CRITFC. Preliminary data showed that White Salmon River fish were the most common at about 42 percent, with 19 percent typing to Hood River, Oregon stock, and about 26 percent typing to Skamania stock, a common hatchery stock in the area. Winter and summer runs were represented in the samples. Juvenile salmonid sampling in the White Salmon River, Washington, following removal of Condit Dam, demonstrated that anadromous salmonids are using newly opened habitat upstream from the former dam site and improved lower river habitat. Steelhead and coho salmon smolts are being produced upstream from the former dam site, and some have returned to Bonneville Dam as adults. Chinook salmon spawning upstream from our smolt trap site are producing fry. These results are encouraging for success of the strictly natural recolonization strategy. However, declines in anadromous runs to the larger Columbia River Basin also likely have affected the White Salmon runs and our data may not reflect full capacity of the White Salmon River subbasin juvenile production. Continued abundance, distribution, and GSI monitoring will help to track the evolution of anadromous fish in the White Salmon River under a natural recolonization strategy.

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USGS2023

Predicting probabilities of late summer surface flow presence in a glaciated mountainous headwater region

Accurate mapping of streams that maintain surface flow during annual baseflow periods in mountain headwater streams is important for informing water availability for human consumption and is a fundamental determinant of in-channel conditions for stream-dwelling organisms. Yet accurate mapping that captures local spatial variability and associated local controls on surface flow presence is limited. An empirical random-forest model was developed to predict streamflow permanence (late summer surface-flow presence) for Mount Rainier National Park and the surrounding mountainous area in western Washington, USA. This model was developed to improve upon the existing multi-state, regional-scale probability of stream permanence developed for the greater Pacific Northwest Region (PROSPER PNW ). The model was trained on 544 wet/dry observations collected during the late summer, baseflow period from 2018 to 2020 using the crowd-source mobile application, FLOwPER. Final model accuracy was 0.74 with drainage area and covariates describing geology, topography, and land cover as top predictors of streamflow permanence compared to coarser resolution climatic covariates. The prevalence of static covariates over climatic covariates as top ranked important covariates highlights the importance of scale when evaluating controls on streamflow permanence. Cross validation of the model indicates that streamflow permanence probabilities from this model is an improvement over the regional-scale PROSPER PNW model demonstrating the utility of relatively simple, crowd-sourced data to address water resource needs, and that determination of important predictors of streamflow permanence is influenced by the spatial and temporal resolution of analysis.

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USGS2023

Juvenile life history diversity is associated with lifetime individual heterogeneity in a migratory fish

Differences in the life history pathways (LHPs) of juvenile animals are often associated with differences in demographic rates in later life stages. For migratory animals, different LHPs often result in animals from the same population occupying distinct habitats subjected to different environmental drivers. Understanding how demographic rates differ among animals expressing different LHPs may reveal fitness trade-offs that drive the expression of alternative LHPs and enable better prediction of population dynamics in a changing environment. To understand how demographic outcomes and their relationships with environmental variables differ among animals with different LHPs, we analyzed a long-term (2006–2021) mark–recapture dataset for Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) from the Wenatchee River, Washington, USA. Distinct LHPs represented in this population include either remaining in the natal stream until emigrating to the ocean as a 1-year-old (natal-reach rearing) or emigrating from the natal stream and rearing in downstream habitats for several months before completing the emigration to the ocean as a 1-year-old (downstream rearing). We found that downstream-rearing fish emigrated to the ocean 19 days earlier on average and returned as adults from the ocean at higher rates. We detected a positive correlation between rate of return from the ocean by downstream-rearing fish and coastal upwelling in their spring of outmigration, whereas for natal-reach-rearing fish we detected a positive correlation with sea surface temperature during their first marine summer. Different responses to environmental variability should lead to asynchrony in adult abundance among juvenile LHPs. A higher proportion of downstream-rearing fish returned at younger ages compared with natal-reach-rearing fish, which contributed to variability in age at reproduction and greater mixing across generations. Our results demonstrate how diversity in juvenile LHPs is associated with heterogeneity in demographic rates during subsequent life stages, which can in turn affect variance in aggregate population abundance and response to environmental change. Our findings underscore the importance of considering life history diversity in demographic analyses and provide insights into the effects of life history diversity on population dynamics and trade-offs that contribute to the maintenance of life history diversity.

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USGS2023

Multi-decadal erosion rates from glacierized watersheds on Mount Baker, Washington, USA, reveal topographic, climatic, and lithologic controls on sediment yields

Understanding land surface change in and sediment export out of proglacial landscapes is critical for understanding geohazard and flood risks over engineering timescales and characterizing landscape evolution over geomorphic timescales. We used automated Structure from Motion software to process historical aerial photographs and, with modern lidar data, generated a high-resolution DEM time series with coverage over 10 glacierized watersheds on Mount Baker, Washington, USA for the time period between 1947 and 2015. We measured basin-wide sediment yields and sediment redistribution on hillslopes and in stream channels. Slopes within most measured erosion sites are above theoretical and observed debris-flow thresholds. We observed significant erosion of hillslopes and limited deposition on hillslopes and in stream channels. Sediment delivery ratios during time periods with net erosion averaged 0.73. We determined, consistent with previous field observations, that debris flows originating from moraines are a primary erosion mechanism in proglacial zones on Mount Baker. Time series measurements indicate that temporal variability in erosion rates is associated with climate oscillations, with higher erosion rates during cooler-wetter periods. Basin-wide sediment yield is positively correlated with lithology (r 2 = 0.54), hillslope angle (r 2 = 0.52), drainage area (r 2 = 0.82), and negatively correlated with stream channel slope (r 2 = 0.67). Topographic differences between high and low yielding basins indicate that spatial variability in erosion on Mount Baker is sensitive to Pleistocene and Holocene glacial and volcanic activity. Specific sediment yields in six basins averaged 4600 ton/km 2 /yr, consistent with global measurements in glacierized catchments. Specific sediment yield decreased with increasing basin area, with total loads in the downstream main stem Nooksack River estimated between 480 and 820 ton/km 2 /yr. Proglacial sediment yields account for between 18 and 32 % of total sediment load in the main stem Nooksack River and exceed contributions by bluff and terrace erosion, which account for between 8 and 13 % of total load. Our findings indicate that erosion in glacierized basins is sensitive to decadal climate oscillations and that high proglacial sediment yields provide an important contribution to river systems downstream, particularly in catchments where upland topography and lithology is favorable.

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USGS2023

Historical Structure from Motion (HSfM): Automated processing of historical aerial photographs for long-term topographic change analysis

Precisely measuring the Earth’s changing surface on decadal to centennial time scales is critical for many science and engineering applications, yet long-term records of quantitative landscape change are often temporally and geographically sparse. Archives of scanned historical aerial photographs provide an opportunity to augment these records with accurate elevation measurements that capture the historical state of the Earth surface. Structure from Motion (SfM) photogrammetry workflows produce high-quality digital elevation models (DEMs) and orthoimage mosaics from these historical images, but time-intensive tasks like manual image preprocessing (e.g., fiducial marker identification) and ground control point (GCP) selection impede processing at scale. We developed an automated method to process historical images and generate self-consistent time series of high-resolution (0.5–2 m) DEMs and orthomosaics, without manual GCP selection. The method relies on SfM to correct camera interior and exterior orientation and a robust multi-stage co-registration approach using modern reference terrain datasets for geolocation refinement. We demonstrate the method using scanned images from the North American Glacier Aerial Photography (NAGAP) archive collected between 1967 and 1997. We present results for two sites with variable photo acquisition geometry and overlap — Mount Baker and South Cascade Glacier in Washington State, USA. The automated method corrects initial camera position errors of several kilometers and produces accurately georeferenced, high-resolution DEMs and orthoimages, regardless of camera configuration, acquisition geometry, terrain characteristics, and reference DEM properties. The average RMS reprojection error following bundle adjustment optimization was 0.67 px (0.15 m) for the 261 images contributing to 10 final DEM mosaics between 1970 and 1992 at Mount Baker, and 0.65 px (0.13 m) for the 243 images contributing to 18 individual DEMs between 1967 and 1997 at South Cascade Glacier. The relative accuracy of elevation values in the historical time series stacks was 0.68 m at Mount Baker and 0.37 m at South Cascade Glacier. Our products have reduced systematic error and improved accuracy compared to DEM products generated using SfM with manual GCP selection. Final elevation change measurement precision was ∼ "> ∼ 0.7–1.0 m over a 30-year period, enabling the study of processes with rates as low as ∼ "> ∼ 1-3 cm/yr. Our results demonstrate the potential of this scalable method to rapidly process archives of historical imagery and deliver new quantitative insights on long-term geodetic change and Earth surface processes.

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USGS2023

A multifault earthquake threat for the Seattle metropolitan region revealed by mass tree mortality

Compound earthquakes involving simultaneous ruptures along multiple faults often define a region’s upper threshold of maximum magnitude. Yet, the potential for linked faulting remains poorly understood given the infrequency of these events in the historic era. Geological records provide longer perspectives, although temporal uncertainties are too broad to clearly pinpoint single multifault events. Here, we use dendrochronological dating and a cosmogenic radiation pulse to constrain the death dates of earthquake-killed trees along two adjacent fault zones near Seattle, Washington to within a 6-month period between the 923 and 924 CE growing seasons. Our narrow constraints conclusively show linked rupturing that occurred either as a single composite earthquake of estimated magnitude 7.8 or as a closely spaced double earthquake sequence with estimated magnitudes of 7.5 and 7.3. These scenarios, which are not recognized in current hazard models, increase the maximum earthquake size needed for seismic preparedness and engineering design within the Puget Sound region of >4 million residents.

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USGS2023

Who spawns where? Temperature, elevation, and discharge differentially affect the distribution of breeding by six Pacific salmonids within a large river basin

Within the geographic range of salmonid fishes, many apparently suitable rivers and streams are used for reproduction by some species but not others. This is widely known but seldom addressed, as studies often examine factors determining the distribution of one or only a few species. We examined physical factors associated with the spawning distribution of six native Pacific salmonids (pink, chum, coho, and Chinook salmon, bull trout, and steelhead) in the Skagit River basin, Washington. Annual mean temperature and catchment elevation had the strongest association with spawning assemblage distribution, but stream length, annual discharge, seasonal hydrology, and land use were also influential. Some species (e.g., pink and Chinook salmon) were more closely associated with each other and with common variables than others, and bull trout were the most distinctive. For interpretation, we investigated the roles of adult body size, timing of spawning, and duration of juvenile rearing, but none of these factors explained groupings in the data. Interspecific differences in habitat association remained, suggesting fundamental constraints on species distributions with implications for conservation and restoration.

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USGS2023

Characteristics of a sea louse (Caligus clemensi) epizootic in wild Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii)

We characterized a natural sea louse epizootic of Caligus clemensi and the effects of parasitism on Pacific herring Clupea pallasii in Port Angeles Harbor, WA, USA. Infestation prevalence on newly metamorphosed age 0 Pacific herring reached 100% prevalence by mid-August. At this time, the mean louse intensity was 4.6 lice/fish, and a positive correlation occurred between louse intensity and herring body length. The epizootic then waned, with infestation prevalence decreasing to less than 25% and the mean parasite intensity falling below 1 louse. While skin injuries were not detected, motile lice preferentially aggregated around head and anterior dorsal areas. However, louse tropism became evenly distributed over the body as the parasite intensity increased. Louse-induced mortality in herring was negligible in controlled experiments. These results indicate that Caligus clemensi epizootics reach high prevalence, but also fade from mid-summer to early fall. Due to the predominant presence of motile copepod stages, we suggest that the epizootic fades because lice complete their life cycle and dislodge from the host; however, multiple explanations for epidemic fading are possible.

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USGS2023

Results of validation exercise for Marine Benthic Index

Marine benthic invertebrates (benthos) are key components of the Puget Sound ecosystem. Because of their direct association living in, and sometimes consuming, sediments, benthos can be valuable sentinels of ecosystem health. Therefore, indicators of benthic invertebrate community health can serve as direct measures of sediment and water quality. In 2021, the Puget Sound Partnership funded development of a Marine Benthic Index . The Marine Benthic Index thus developed uses a novel approach that accounts for habitat preferences of the benthic invertebrate species. This report describes the design and results of the exercise conducted to validate the Marine Benthic Index . The goals of the validation exercise were to determine (a) how well the Marine Benthic Index matches more standard ways of assessing community health and (b) how finely it is possible to distinguish between levels of disturbance. A controlled experiment was devised in which simulated benthic communities were generated to correspond to predetermined levels of disturbance, and experts in benthic ecology determined which communities reflected the more-disturbed conditions. In this way, the index was directly compared to traditional methods of assessing benthic communities. The results provide strong evidence that the “latent disturbance” model used to derive the Marine Benthic Index is identifying effects that benthic experts recognize as disturbance. Not only did the model agree with the experts overall, but also the probability of agreement strongly increased with increasing difference in disturbance level. The validation exercise results indicate that the Marine Benthic Index is a reliable method of determining disturbance without the necessity of assuming a priori knowledge of the disturbance. Furthermore, the numerical approach embodied in the Marine Benthic Index has the advantage of being able to find patterns beyond the capability of individual experts to know the effects of human disturbances for all species under all environmental conditions.

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USGS2022

Using seismic noise correlation to determine the shallow velocity structure of the Seattle basin, Washington

Cross-correlation waveforms of seismic noise in the Seattle basin, Washington, were analyzed to determine the group velocities of surface waves and constrain the shear-wave velocity ( V S ) for depths less than about 2 kilometers (km). Twenty broadband seismometers were deployed for about 3 weeks in three dense arrays separated by about 5 km, with minimum intra-array station spacing of about 0.5 km. Cross correlations of only 9 days of noise recordings produced Green’s functions at periods of 2 to 6 seconds (s) for sites about 5 km apart. Usable noise correlations for shorter periods of 0.5 to 1.0 s were found for sites within the arrays separated by 1 to 2 km. We bandpass filtered the inter- and intra-array cross-correlation waveforms to determine Love-wave group velocities at periods of 0.5 to 6 s for paths within the Seattle basin and at 3 to 5 s for paths crossing the southern edge of the basin. We developed a non-linear inversion program to determine V S profiles that fit the observed group velocities for paths in the basin. We found that these group velocities are well fit by a variety of V S profiles, each with a distinct jump in V S at depths ranging from 0.9 to 1.3 km. This jump in V S is inferred to represent the top of bedrock. The observed group velocities are not matched by models with the top of bedrock at 0.7-km depth or shallower. The group velocities are also fit by a model with no large jumps in V S in depths less than 2.4 km. The V S profile for the middle of the basin from Stephenson and others (2017), with a depth to bedrock of 0.9 km, also adequately fits the group velocity observations, if a velocity gradient is added from 0.05- to 0.1-km depth. The results indicate that short (3-week) deployments of seismometers to record seismic noise may provide useful constraints on the V S of sedimentary basins.

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USGS2022

Understanding and modeling tephra transport: Lessons learned from the 18 May 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens

Discoveries made during the 18 May 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens advanced our understanding of tephra transport and deposition in fundamental ways. The eruption enabled detailed, quantitative observations of downwind cloud movement and particle sedimentation, along with the dynamics of co-pyroclastic-density current (PDC) clouds lofted from ground-hugging currents. The deposit was mapped and sampled over more than 150,000 km 2 within days of the event and remains among the most thoroughly documented tephra deposits in the world. Abundant observations were made possible by the large size of the eruption, its occurrence in good weather during daylight hours, cloud movement over a large, populated continent, and the availability of images from recently deployed satellites. These observations underpinned new, quantitative models for the rise and growth of volcanic plumes, the importance of umbrella clouds in dispersing ash, and the roles of particle aggregation and gravitational instabilities in removing ash from the atmosphere. Exceptional detail in the eruption chronology and deposit characterization helped identify the eruptive phases contributing to deposition in different sectors of the distal deposit. The eruption was the first to significantly impact civil aviation, leading to the earliest documented case of in-flight engine damage. Continued eruptive activity in 1980 also motivated pioneering use of meteorological models to forecast ash-cloud movement. In this paper, we consider the most important discoveries and how they changed the science of tephra transport.

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USGS2022

Assessment of vulnerabilities and opportunities to restore marsh sediment supply at Nisqually River Delta, west-central Washington

A cascading set of hazards to coastal environments is intimately tied to sediment transport and includes the flooding and erosion of shorelines and habitats that support communities, industry, infrastructure, and ecosystem functions (for example, habitats critical to fisheries). This report summarizes modeling and measurement data used to evaluate the sediment budget of the Nisqually River Delta, the vulnerability of the largest estuary restoration project in Puget Sound at the Billy Frank Jr. Nisqually National Wildlife Refuge, and the role of coastal hydrodynamics and potential restoration alternatives for recovering sediment delivery to its marshes. The 2009 Brown’s Farm Restoration achieved many goals toward recovering salmon habitat, but the understanding of the delta and restoration area sediment budgets remain poorly quantified. Specifically, quantitative estimates of the amount of sediment delivered to the delta and restored marsh areas, which had subsided in response to historical diking and draining for grazing, were identified as important information needs. Forecasts of potential outcomes of proposed adaptive distributary channel restoration actions were also prioritized to inform potential solutions. These estimates can be used to evaluate whether sufficient sediment is available for marsh recovery downstream from Alder Lake, which traps about 90 percent the Nisqually River sediment load that could reach the delta . Additionally, quantitative sediment information was identified to help prioritize opportunities to recover and maintain the area marshes and guide ecosystem restoration investments across the delta to reduce the vulnerability of the system to drowning under projected sea level rise. A coupled, numerical hydrodynamic-sediment transport model and measurements of the sediment load just upstream from the delta were used to evaluate the (1) availability of sediment for marsh recovery, (2) sediment transport dynamics across the estuary, and (3) potential outcomes of distributary reconnection alternatives under existing and projected conditions of streamflow and sea level. Modeling and measurements indicated that the volume of fluvial sediment load reaching and accumulating in the restoration area ranges from 7 to 32 percent and identified that restoration alternatives could recover about an additional 10–12 percent under current and projected sea-level rise by the year 2100. At these rates of sediment delivery, 85–200+ years may be necessary to fill for marsh vegetation development and maintenance. The model also reveals the sensitivity of sediment transport and accumulation to sediment properties, hydrodynamics, and wave conditions. The low sediment accumulation results in large part because of the role of waves in directing sediment transport offshore and challenges of restoring geomorphic processes suited to maintaining habitat structure where opportunity exists or least conflicts with land use. The findings therefore have implications for siting, phasing, and implementing strategies to route and retain sediment. This study shows that opportunities to recover sediment higher in the tidal prism, where a greater hydraulic gradient and gravity could promote progradation and greater sediment retention, may be more effective than alternatives lower in the tidal prism implemented to date and assessed in this study. Furthermore, the modeling indicates that distributary channel restoration also may provide additional benefits to society by reducing flood stage, and therefore, flood hazards surrounding the delta.

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USGS2022

Geologic field-trip guide to volcanism and its interaction with snow and ice at Mount Rainier, Washington

Mount Rainier is the Pacific Northwest’s iconic volcano. At 4,393 meters and situated in the south-central Cascade Range of Washington State, it towers over cities of the Puget Lowland. As the highest summit in the Cascade Range, Mount Rainier hosts 26 glaciers and numerous permanent snow fields covering 87 square kilometers and having a snow and ice volume of about 3.8 cubic kilometers. It remains by far the most heavily glacier-clad mountain in the conterminous United States despite having lost about 14 percent of its ice volume between 1970 and 2008. Five major rivers head at Mount Rainier—the White, Carbon, Puyallup, Nisqually, and Cowlitz Rivers. Because Mount Rainier is situated west of the Cascade Range crest, all of these rivers eventually turn and drain westward. The Puget Lowland, situated west to northwest of Mount Rainier, is the Pacific Northwest’s most densely populated area, including Seattle, Tacoma, and Olympia. The Puget Lowland is now home to a population of more than 4.5 million and a vibrant economy. Mount Rainier is one of the most hazardous volcanoes in the United States, not so much because of its explosivity, but rather because of its frequent eruptions, its propensity to produce voluminous far-traveled lahars, and its proximity to large population centers of the Puget Lowland. Steep-sided, glacially carved valleys serve as lahar conduits, and even mild eruptions commonly produced large lahars that traveled into areas now populated by hundreds of thousands of people. This guide describes a five-day field trip to view the geology of Mount Rainier as it relates to volcanism and its interaction with snow and ice. Day 1 will focus on lahars in the White River valley. We will drive to Enumclaw, Washington, to begin the day then work our way back upvalley toward Mount Rainier. Day 2 concentrates on geology of the Sunrise-Glacier Basin area within Mount Rainier National Park. As part of day 2 activities, we will hike about 10 miles from Sunrise to the top of Burroughs Mountain, down into Glacier Basin, and be picked up at White River Campground. On day 3 we will pack up and move to Paradise, stopping to examine geology along Stevens Canyon Road. We will hike from Paradise along the Golden Gate Trail and eventually eastward to the former Paradise Ice Caves area (the ice caves have melted out). Day 4 involves hiking from Comet Falls trailhead to Mildred Point and return (~7 miles; 11 km), examining geology along the way. During the first half of day 5, we will visit sites on the south side of Mount Rainier to study lahar deposits, then return to the tour origin.

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USGS2022

The socioecology of fear: A critical geographical consideration of human-wolf-livestock conflict

Animal fear can be an important driver of ecological community structure: predators affect prey not only through predation, but by inducing changes in behavior and distribution—a phenomenon evocatively called the “ecology of fear.” The return of wolves to the western United States is a notable instance of such dynamics, yet plays out in a complex socio-ecological system where efforts to mitigate impacts on livestock rely on manipulating wolves’ fear of people. Examining Washington state’s efforts to affect wolf behavior to reduce livestock predation, we argue that this approach to coexistence with wolves is predicated on relations of fear: people, livestock, and wolves can arguably share landscapes with minimal conflict, as long as wolves are adequately afraid. We introduce the “socioecology of fear” as an interdisciplinary framework for examining the interwoven social and ecological processes of human-wildlife conflict management. Beyond frequently-voiced ideas about wolves’ “innate” fear, we examine how fear is (re)produced through human-wolf interactions and deeply shaped by human social processes. We contribute to the Critical Physical Geography project by integrating critical social analysis with ecological theory, conducted through collaborative interdisciplinary dialogue. Such integrative practice is essential for understanding the complex challenges of managing wildlife in the Anthropocene.

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USGS2022

Mortality associated with extreme heat in Washington State: The historical and projected public health burden

Extreme heat is one of the most important pathways illustrating the connection between climate and human health, and climate change is expected to exacerbate this public health issue. This study first used a case-crossover analysis to characterize the historical (1980–2018) association between summertime heat and non-traumatic mortality in Washington State. A separate analysis was conducted for each of the state’s ten climate divisions to produce distinct exposure–response curves expressing odds of mortality as a function of humidex. Stratified analyses were used to assess the impact of age, sex, race/ethnicity, and select causes of death, and the reported results are pooled across all divisions using meta-analysis. The historical heat–mortality relationship was combined with climate projections to estimate the impact of climate change on heat-related deaths in 2030, 2050, and 2080 under two warming scenarios. The odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals of mortality at the 99th percentile of humidex compared to the 50th percentile did not include the null value in four climate divisions (E Olympic Cascade Foothills, NE Olympic San Juan, Northeastern, and Puget Sound Lowlands). The statewide odds of mortality are 8% higher (6%, 10%) on 99th percentile days compared to 50th percentile days, driven primarily by an OR of 1.09 (1.06, 1.11) in the Puget Sound Lowlands. Risk is higher for women than men and for Blacks than Whites. Risk increases with age and for diabetic, circulatory, cardiovascular, ischemic, cerebrovascular, and respiratory deaths. The 95% confidence intervals of projected heat-attributable mortality did not overlap with zero in three climate divisions (E Olympic Cascade Foothills, NE Olympic San Juan, and Puget Sound Lowlands). In these three divisions, the average percent increase in heat-attributable mortality across both warming scenarios is 35%, 35%, and 603% in 2030, 2050, and 2080, respectively. This research is the most extensive study of heat-related mortality in Washington to date and can help inform public health initiatives aiming to improve present and future health outcomes in the state.

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