Geology topics

Research about Washington

Source-linked reports with geographic coverage including Washington.

At least 523 records · Page 29Linked to original sources

USGS2016

Surface-water quality-assurance plan for the U.S. Geological Survey Washington Water Science Center

This Surface-Water Quality-Assurance Plan documents the standards, policies, and procedures used by the U.S. Geological Survey Washington Water Science Center (WAWSC) for activities related to the collection, processing, storage, analysis, and publication of surface-water data. This plan serves as a guide to all WAWSC personnel involved in surface-water data activities, and changes as the needs and requirements of the WAWSC change. Regular updates to this plan represent an integral part of the quality-assurance process. In the WAWSC, direct oversight and responsibility by the hydrographer(s) assigned to a surface-water station, combined with team approaches in all work efforts, assure highquality data, analyses, reviews, and reports for cooperating agencies and the public.

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USGS2016

Transport and deposition of asbestos-rich sediment in the Sumas River, Whatcom County, Washington

Heavy sediment loads in the Sumas River of Whatcom County, Washington, increase seasonal turbidity and cause locally acute sedimentation. Most sediment in the Sumas River is derived from a deep-seated landslide of serpentinite that is located on Sumas Mountain and drained by Swift Creek, a tributary to the Sumas River. This mafic sediment contains high amounts of naturally occurring asbestiform chrysotile. A known human-health hazard, asbestiform chrysotile comprises 0.25–37 percent, by mass, of the total suspended sediment sampled from the Sumas River as part of this study, which included part of water year 2011 and all of water years 2012 and 2013. The suspended-sediment load in the Sumas River at South Pass Road, 0.6 kilometers (km) downstream of the confluence with Swift Creek, was 22,000 tonnes (t) in water year 2012 and 49,000 t in water year 2013. The suspended‑sediment load at Telegraph Road, 18.8 km downstream of the Swift Creek confluence, was 22,000 t in water year 2012 and 27,000 t in water year 2013. Although hydrologic conditions during the study were wetter than normal overall, the 2-year flood peak was only modestly exceeded in water years 2011 and 2013; runoff‑driven geomorphic disturbance to the watershed, which might have involved mass wasting from the landslide, seemed unexceptional. In water year 2012, flood peaks were modest, and the annual streamflow was normal. The fact that suspended-sediment loads in water year 2012 were equivalent at sites 0.6 and 18.8 km downstream of the sediment source indicates that the conservation of suspended‑sediment load can occur under normal hydrologic conditions. The substantial decrease in suspended-sediment load in the downstream direction in water year 2013 was attributed to either sedimentation in the intervening river reach, transfer to bedload as an alternate mode of sediment transport, or both. The sediment in the Sumas River is distinct from sediment in most other river systems because of the large percentage of asbestiform chrysotile in suspension. The suspended sediment carried by the Sumas River consists of three major components: (1) a relatively dense, largely non-flocculated material that settles rapidly out of suspension; (2) a lighter component containing relatively high proportions of flocculated material, much of it composed of asbestiform chrysotile; and (3) individual chrysotile fibers that are too small to flocculate or settle out, and remain in suspension as wash load (these fibers are on the order of microns in length and tenths of microns in diameter). Whereas the bulk density of the first (heaviest) component of suspended sediment was between 1.5 and 1.6 grams per cubic centimeter (g/cm3), the bulk density of the flocculated material was an order of magnitude lower (0.16 g/cm3), even after 24 hours of settling. Soon after immersion in water, the fresh chrysotile fibers derived from the Swift Creek landslide seem to flocculate readily into large bundles, or floccules, that exhibit settling velocities characteristic of coarse silts and fine sands (30 and 250 micrometers). In quiescent water within this river system, the floccules settle out quickly, but still leave between 2.4 and 19.5 million chrysotile fibers per liter in the clear overlying water. Consistent with the results from previous laboratory research, the amounts of asbestiform chrysotile in the water column in Swift Creek, as well as in the Sumas River close to and downstream of its confluence with Swift Creek, were determined to be directly correlated with pH. This observation offers a possible alternative to either turbidity or suspended‑sediment concentration as a surrogate for the concentration of fresh asbestiform chrysotile in suspension. Continued movement and associated erosion of the landslide through mass wasting and runoff will maintain large sediment loads in Swift Creek and in the Sumas River for the foreseeable future. Given the present channel morphology of the river system, aggradation (that is, sediment accumulation) in Swift Creek and the Sumas River are also likely to continue.

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USGS2016

Changes in habitat availability for outmigrating juvenile salmon (Oncorhychus spp.) following estuary restoration

The restoration of the Nisqually River Delta (Washington, U.S.A.) represents one of the largest efforts toward reestablishing the ecosystem function and resilience of modified habitat in the Puget Sound, particularly for anadromous salmonid species. The opportunity for outmigrating salmon to access and benefit from the expansion of available tidal habitat can be quantified by several physical attributes, which are related to the ecological and physiological responses of juvenile salmon. We monitored a variety of physical parameters to measure changes in opportunity potential from historic, pre-restoration, and post-restoration habitat conditions at several sites across the delta. These parameters included channel morphology, water quality, tidal elevation, and landscape connectivity. We conducted fish catch surveys across the delta to determine if salmon was utilizing restored estuary habitat. Overall major channel area increased 42% and major channel length increased 131% from pre- to post-restoration conditions. Furthermore, the results of our tidal inundation model indicated that major channels were accessible up to 75% of the time, as opposed to 30% pre-restoration. Outmigrating salmon utilized this newly accessible habitat as quickly as 1 year post-restoration. The presence of salmon in restored tidal channels confirmed rapid post-restoration increases in opportunity potential on the delta despite habitat quality differences between restored and reference sites.

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USGS2016

Population dynamics of mallards breeding in eastern Washington

Variation in regional population trends for mallards breeding in the western United States indicates that additional research into factors that influence demographics could contribute to management and understanding the population demographics of mallards across North America. We estimated breeding incidence and adult female, nest, and brood survival in eastern Washington in 2006 and 2007 by monitoring female mallards with radio telemetry and tested how those parameters were influenced by study year (2006 vs. 2007), landscape type (agricultural vs. natural), and age (second year [SY] vs. after second year [ASY]). We also investigated the effects of female body condition and capture date on breeding incidence, and nest initiation date and hatch date on nest and brood survival, respectively. We included population parameters in a stage-based demographic model and conducted a perturbation analysis to identify which vital rates were most influential on population growth rate (λ). Adult female survival was best modeled with a constant weekly survival rate (0.994, SE = 0.003). Breeding incidence differed between years and was higher for birds in better body condition. Nest survival was higher for ASY females (0.276, SE = 0.118) than SY females (0.066, SE = 0.052), and higher on publicly managed lands (0.383, SE = 0.212) than agricultural (0.114, SE = 0.058) landscapes. Brood survival was best modeled with a constant rate for the 7-week monitoring period (0.50, SE = 0.155). The single variable having the greatest influence on λ was non-breeding season survival, but the combination of parameters from the breeding grounds explained a greater percent of the variance in λ. Mallard population growth rate was most sensitive to changes in non-breeding survival, nest success, brood survival, and breeding incidence. Future management decisions should focus on activities that improve these vital rates if managers want to increase the production of mallards in eastern Washington.

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USGS2016

Differential uplift and incision of the Yakima River terraces, central Washington State

The fault-related Yakima folds deform Miocene basalts and younger deposits of the Columbia Plateau in central Washington State. Geodesy implies ~2 mm/yr of NNE directed shortening across the folds, but until now the distribution and rates of Quaternary deformation among individual structures has been unclear. South of Ellensburg, Washington, the Yakima River cuts a ~600 m deep canyon across several Yakima folds, preserving gravel-mantled strath terraces that record progressive bedrock incision and related rock uplift. Here we integrate cosmogenic isochron burial dating of the strath terrace gravels with lidar analysis and field mapping to quantify rates of Quaternary differential incision and rock uplift across two folds transected by the Yakima River: Manastash and Umtanum Ridge. Isochron burial ages from in situ produced 26 Al and 10 Be at seven sites across the folds date episodes of strath terrace formation over the past ~2.9 Ma. Average bedrock incision rates across the Manastash (~88 m/Myr) and Umtanum Ridge (~46 m/Myr) anticlines are roughly 4 to 8 times higher than rates in the intervening syncline (~14 m/Myr) and outside the canyon (~10 m/Myr). These contrasting rates demonstrate differential bedrock incision driven by ongoing Quaternary rock uplift across the folds at rates corresponding to ~0.13 and ~0.06 mm/yr shortening across postulated master faults dipping 30 ± 10°S beneath the Manastash and Umtanum Ridge anticlines, respectively. The reported Quaternary shortening across the anticlines accounts for ~10% of the ~2 mm/yr geodetic budget, suggesting that other Yakima structures actively accommodate the remaining contemporary deformation.

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USGS2016

Wildfire may increase habitat quality for spring Chinook salmon in the Wenatchee River subbasin, WA, USA

Pacific Northwest salmonids are adapted to natural disturbance regimes that create dynamic habitat patterns over space and through time. However, human land use, particularly long-term fire suppression, has altered the intensity and frequency of wildfire in forested upland and riparian areas. To examine the potential impacts of wildfire on aquatic systems, we developed stream-reach-scale models of freshwater habitat for three life stages (adult, egg/fry, and juvenile) of spring Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) in the Wenatchee River subbasin, Washington. We used variables representing pre- and post-fire habitat conditions and employed novel techniques to capture changes in in-stream fine sediment, wood, and water temperature. Watershed-scale comparisons of high-quality habitat for each life stage of spring Chinook salmon habitat suggested that there are smaller quantities of high-quality juvenile overwinter habitat as compared to habitat for other life stages. We found that wildfire has the potential to increase quality of adult and overwintering juvenile habitat through increased delivery of wood, while decreasing the quality of egg and fry habitat due to the introduction of fine sediments. Model results showed the largest effect of fire on habitat quality associated with the juvenile life stage, resulting in increases in high-quality habitat in all watersheds. Due to the limited availability of pre-fire high-quality juvenile habitat, and increased habitat quality for this life stage post-fire, occurrence of characteristic wildfires would likely create a positive effect on spring Chinook salmon habitat in the Wenatchee River subbasin. We also compared pre- and post-fire model results of freshwater habitat for each life stage, and for the geometric mean of habitat quality across all life stages, using current compared to the historic distribution of spring Chinook salmon. We found that spring Chinook salmon are currently distributed in stream channels in which in-stream habitat for most life stages has a consistently positive response to fire. This compares to the historic distribution of spring Chinook, in which in-stream habitat exhibited a variable response to fire, including decreases in habitat quality overall or for specific life stages. This suggests that as the distribution of spring Chinook has decreased, they now occupy those areas with the most positive potential response to fire. Our work shows the potentially positive link between wildfire and aquatic habitat that supports forest managers in setting broader goals for fire management, perhaps leading to less fire suppression in some situations.

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USGS2016

Landscape-scale habitat selection by fishers translocated to the Olympic Peninsula of Washington

The fisher was extirpated from much of the Pacific Northwestern United States during the mid- to late-1900s and is now proposed for federal listing as a threatened species in all or part of its west coast range. Following the translocation of 90 fishers from central British Columbia, Canada, to the Olympic Peninsula of Washington State from 2008 to 2010, we investigated the landscape-scale habitat selection of reintroduced fishers across a broad range of forest ages and disturbance histories, providing the first information on habitat relationships of newly reintroduced fishers in coastal coniferous forests in the Pacific Northwest. We developed 17 a priori models to evaluate several habitat-selection hypotheses based on premises of habitat models used to forecast habitat suitability for the reintroduced population. Further, we hypothesized that female fishers, because of their smaller body size than males, greater vulnerability to predation, and specific reproductive requirements, would be more selective than males for mid- to late-seral forest communities, where complex forest structural elements provide secure foraging, resting, and denning sites. We assessed 11 forest structure and landscape characteristics within the home range core-areas used by 19 females and 12 males and within randomly placed pseudo core areas that represented available habitats. We used case-controlled logistic regression to compare the characteristics of used and pseudo core areas and to assess selection by male and female fishers. Females were more selective of core area placement than males. Fifteen of 19 females (79%) and 5 of 12 males (42%) selected core areas within federal lands that encompassed primarily forests with an overstory of mid-sized or large trees. Male fishers exhibited only weak selection for core areas dominated by forests with an overstory of small trees, primarily on land managed for timber production or at high elevations. The amount of natural open area best distinguished the use of core areas between males and females, with females using substantially less natural open area than males. Although sex-specific selection has been suspected for fishers, we identified factors that distinguish the selection of core areas by females from those of males, information which will be valuable to managers planning reintroductions or providing suitable habitat to promote fisher recovery in the Pacific Northwest.

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USGS2016

Pedestrian flow-path modeling to support tsunami evacuation and disaster relief planning in the U.S. Pacific Northwest

Successful evacuations are critical to saving lives from future tsunamis. Pedestrian-evacuation modeling related to tsunami hazards primarily has focused on identifying areas and the number of people in these areas where successful evacuations are unlikely. Less attention has been paid to identifying evacuation pathways and population demand at assembly areas for at-risk individuals that may have sufficient time to evacuate. We use the neighboring coastal communities of Hoquiam, Aberdeen, and Cosmopolis (Washington, USA) and the local tsunami threat posed by Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes as a case study to explore the use of geospatial, least-cost-distance evacuation modeling for supporting evacuation outreach, response, and relief planning. We demonstrate an approach that uses geospatial evacuation modeling to (a) map the minimum pedestrian travel speeds to safety, the most efficient paths, and collective evacuation basins, (b) estimate the total number and demographic description of evacuees at predetermined assembly areas, and (c) determine which paths may be compromised due to earthquake-induced ground failure. Results suggest a wide range in the magnitude and type of evacuees at predetermined assembly areas and highlight parts of the communities with no readily accessible assembly area. Earthquake-induced ground failures could obstruct access to some assembly areas, cause evacuees to reroute to get to other assembly areas, and isolate some evacuees from relief personnel. Evacuation-modeling methods and results discussed here have implications and application to tsunami-evacuation outreach, training, response procedures, mitigation, and long-term land use planning to increase community resilience.

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USGS2016

Modeling the effects of urban expansion on natural capital stocks and ecosystem service flows: A case study in the Puget Sound, Washington, USA

Urban expansion and its associated landscape modifications are important drivers of changes in ecosystem service (ES). This study examined the effects of two alternative land use-change development scenarios in the Puget Sound region of Washington State on natural capital stocks and ES flows. Land-use change model outputs served as inputs to five ES models developed using the Artificial Intelligence for Ecosystem Services (ARIES) platform. While natural capital stocks declined under managed (1.3–5.8%) and unmanaged (2.8–11.8%) development scenarios, ES flows increased by 18.5–56% and 23.2–55.7%, respectively. Human development of natural landscapes reduced their capacity for service provision, while simultaneously adding beneficiaries, particularly along the urban fringe. Using global and local Moran’s I, we identified three distinct patterns of change in ES due to projected landuse change. For services with location-dependent beneficiaries – open space proximity, viewsheds, and flood regulation – urbanization led to increased clustering and hot-spot intensities. ES flows were greatest in the managed land-use change scenario for open space proximity and flood regulation, and in the unmanaged land-use change scenario for viewsheds—a consequence of the differing ES flow mechanisms underpinning these services. We observed a third pattern – general declines in service provision – for carbon storage and sediment retention, where beneficiaries in our analysis were not location dependent. Contrary to past authors’ finding of ES declines under urbanization, a more nuanced analysis that maps and quantifies ES provision, beneficiaries, and flows better identifies gains and losses for specific ES beneficiaries as urban areas expand.

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USGS2016

Detecting seasonal landslide movement within the Cascade landslide complex (Washington) using time-series SAR imagery

Detection of slow or limited landslide movement within broad areas of forested terrain has long been problematic, particularly for the Cascade landslide complex (Washington) located along the Columbia River Gorge. Although parts of the landslide complex have been found reactivated in recent years, the timing and magnitude of motion have not been systematically monitored or interpreted. Here we apply novel time-series strategies to study the spatial distribution and temporal behavior of the landslide movement between 2007 and 2011 using InSAR images from two overlapping L-band ALOS PALSAR-1 satellite tracks. Our results show that the reactivated part has moved approximately 700 mm downslope during the 4-year observation period, while other parts of the landslide complex have generally remained stable. However, we also detect about 300 mm of seasonal downslope creep in a terrain block upslope of the Cascade landslide complex—terrain previously thought to be stable. The temporal oscillation of the seasonal movement can be correlated with precipitation, implying that seasonal movement here is hydrology-driven. The seasonal movement also has a frequency similar to GPS-derived regional ground oscillations due to mass loading by stored rainfall and subsequent rebound but with much smaller magnitude, suggesting different hydrological loading effects. From the time-series amplitude information on terrain upslope of the headscarp, we also re-evaluate the incipient motion related to the 2008 Greenleaf Basin rock avalanche, not previously recognized by traditional SAR/InSAR methods. The approach used in this study can be used to identify active landslides in forested terrain, to track the seasonal movement of landslides, and to identify previously unknown landslide hazards.

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USGS2016

Identifying key climate and environmental factors affecting rates of post-fire big sagebrush ( Artemisia tridentata ) recovery in the northern Columbia Basin, USA

Sagebrush steppe of North America is considered highly imperilled, in part owing to increased fire frequency. Sagebrush ecosystems support numerous species, and it is important to understand those factors that affect rates of post-fire sagebrush recovery. We explored recovery of Wyoming big sagebrush ( Artemisia tridentata ssp. wyomingensis ) and basin big sagebrush ( A. tridentata ssp. tridentata ) communities following fire in the northern Columbia Basin (Washington, USA). We sampled plots across 16 fires that burned in big sagebrush communities from 5 to 28 years ago, and also sampled nearby unburned locations. Mixed-effects models demonstrated that density of large–mature big sagebrush plants and percentage cover of big sagebrush were higher with time since fire and in plots with more precipitation during the winter immediately following fire, but were lower when precipitation the next winter was higher than average, especially on soils with higher available water supply, and with greater post-fire mortality of mature big sagebrush plants. Bunchgrass cover 5 to 28 years after fire was predicted to be lower with higher cover of both shrubs and non-native herbaceous species, and only slightly higher with time. Post-fire recovery of big sagebrush in the northern Columbia Basin is a slow process that may require several decades on average, but faster recovery rates may occur under specific site and climate conditions.

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USGS2016

Geochemical characterization and dating of R tephra, a post-glacial marker bed in Mount Rainier National Park, Washington, U.S.A.

The oldest postglacial lapilli–ash tephra recognized in sedimentary records surrounding Mount Rainier (Washington State, USA) is R tephra, a very early Holocene deposit that acts as an important stratigraphic and geochronologic marker bed. This multidisciplinary study incorporates tephrostratigraphy, radiocarbon dating, petrography, and electron microprobe analysis to characterize R tephra. Tephra samples were collected from Tipsoo Lake and a stream-cut exposure in the Cowlitz Divide area of Mount Rainier National Park. Field evidence from 25 new sites suggests that R tephra locally contains internal bedding and has a wider distribution than previously reported. Herein, we provide the first robust suite of geochemical data that characterize the tephra. Glass compositions are heterogeneous, predominantly ranging from andesite to rhyolite in ash- to lapilli-sized clasts. The mineral assemblage consists of plagioclase, orthopyroxene, clinopyroxene, and magnetite with trace apatite and ilmenite. Subaerial R tephra deposits appear more weathered in hand sample than subaqueous deposits, but weathering indices suggest negligible chemical weathering in both deposits. Statistical analysis of radiocarbon ages provides a median age for R tephra of ∼10 050 cal years BP, and a 2σ error range between 9960 and 10 130 cal years BP.

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USGS2016

Feeding ecology of non-native Siberian prawns, Palaemon modestus (Heller, 1862) (Decapoda, Palaemonidae), in the lower Snake River, Washington, U.S.A.

We used both stomach content and stable isotope analyses to describe the feeding ecology of Siberian prawns Palaemon modestus (Heller, 1862), a non-native caridean shrimp that is a relatively recent invader of the lower Snake River. Based on identifiable prey in stomachs, the opossum shrimp Neomysis mercedis Holmes, 1896 comprised up to 34-55% (by weight) of diets of juvenile to adult P. modestus , which showed little seasonal variation. Other predominant items/taxa consumed included detritus, amphipods, dipteran larvae, and oligochaetes. Stable isotope analysis supported diet results and also suggested that much of the food consumed by P. modestus that was not identifiable came from benthic sources — predominantly invertebrates of lower trophic levels and detritus. Palaemon modestus consumption of N. mercedis may pose a competitive threat to juvenile salmon and resident fishes which also rely heavily on that prey.

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USGS2016

Modelling landslide liquefaction, mobility bifurcation and the dynamics of the 2014 Oso disaster

Some landslides move slowly or intermittently downslope, but others liquefy during the early stages of motion, leading to runaway acceleration and high-speed runout across low-relief terrain. Mechanisms responsible for this disparate behaviour are represented in a two-phase, depth-integrated, landslide dynamics model that melds principles from soil mechanics, granular mechanics and fluid mechanics. The model assumes that gradually increasing pore-water pressure causes slope failure to nucleate at the weakest point on a basal slip surface in a statically balanced mass. Failure then spreads to adjacent regions as a result of momentum exchange. Liquefaction is contingent on pore-pressure feedback that depends on the initial soil state. The importance of this feedback is illustrated by using the model to study the dynamics of a disastrous landslide that occurred near Oso, Washington, USA, on 22 March 2014. Alternative simulations of the event reveal the pronounced effects of a landslide mobility bifurcation that occurs if the initial void ratio of water-saturated soil equals the lithostatic, critical-state void ratio. They also show that the tendency for bifurcation increases as the soil permeability decreases. The bifurcation implies that it can be difficult to discriminate conditions that favour slow landsliding from those that favour liquefaction and long runout.

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USGS2016

Where is the hot rock and where is the ground water— Using CSAMT to map beneath and around Mount St. Helens

We have observed several new features in recent controlled-source audio-frequency magnetotelluric (CSAMT) soundings on and around Mount St. Helens, Washington State, USA. We have identified the approximate location of a strong electrical conductor at the edges of and beneath the 2004–08 dome. We interpret this conductor to be hot brine at the hot-intrusive-cold-rock interface. This contact can be found within 50 meters of the receiver station on Spine 5, which extruded between April and July of 2005. We have also mapped separate regional and glacier-dome aquifers, which lie one atop the other, out to considerable distances from the volcano.

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USGS2016

Impacts of Climate Change on Regulated Streamflow, Hydrologic Extremes, Hydropower Production, and Sediment Discharge in the Skagit River Basin

Previous studies have shown that the impacts of climate change on the hydrologic response of the Skagit River are likely to be substantial under natural (i.e. unregulated) conditions. To assess the combined effects of changing natural flow and dam operations that determine impacts to regulated flow, a new integrated daily-time-step reservoir operations model was constructed for the Skagit River Basin. The model was used to simulate current reservoir operating policies for historical flow conditions and for projected flows for the 2040s (2030–2059) and 2080s (2070–2099). The results show that climate change is likely to cause substantial seasonal changes in both natural and regulated flow, with more flow in the winter and spring, and less in summer. Hydropower generation in the basin follows these trends, increasing (+ 19%) in the winter/ spring, and decreasing (- 29%) in the summer by the 2080s. The regulated 100-year flood is projected to increase by 23% by the 2040s and 49% by the 2080s. Peak winter sediment loading in December is projected to increase by 335% by the 2080s in response to increasing winter flows, and average annual sediment loading increases from 2.3 to 5.8 teragrams (+ 149%) per year by the 2080s. Regulated extreme low flows (7Q10) are projected to decrease by about 30% by the 2080s, but remain well above natural low flows. Both current and proposed alternative flood control operations are shown to be largely ineffective in mitigating increasing flood risks in the lower Skagit due to the distribution of flow in the basin during floods.

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USGS2016

Combined effects of projected sea level rise, storm surge, and peak river flows on water levels in the Skagit Floodplain

Current understanding of the combined effects of sea level rise (SLR), storm surge, and changes in river flooding on near-coastal environments is very limited. This project uses a suite of numerical models to examine the combined effects of projected future climate change on flooding in the Skagit floodplain and estuary. Statistically and dynamically downscaled global climate model scenarios from the ECHAM-5 GCM were used as the climate forcings. Unregulated daily river flows were simulated using the VIC hydrology model, and regulated river flows were simulated using the SkagitSim reservoir operations model. Daily tidal anomalies (TA) were calculated using a regression approach based on ENSO and atmospheric pressure forcing simulated by the WRF regional climate model. A 2-D hydrodynamic model was used to estimate water surface elevations in the Skagit floodplain using resampled hourly hydrographs keyed to regulated daily flood flows produced by the reservoir simulation model, and tide predictions adjusted for SLR and TA. Combining peak annual TA with projected sea level rise, the historical (1970–1999) 100-yr peak high water level is exceeded essentially every year by the 2050s. The combination of projected sea level rise and larger floods by the 2080s yields both increased flood inundation area (+ 74%), and increased average water depth (+ 25 cm) in the Skagit floodplain during a 100-year flood. Adding sea level rise to the historical FEMA 100-year flood resulted in a 35% increase in inundation area by the 2040's, compared to a 57% increase when both SLR and projected changes in river flow were combined.

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USGS2016

Assessing tidal marsh vulnerability to sea-level rise in the Skagit Delta

Historical aerial photographs, from 1937 to the present, show Skagit Delta tidal marshes prograding into Skagit Bay for most of the record, but the progradation rates have been steadily declining and the marshes have begun to erode in recent decades despite the large suspended sediment load provided by the Skagit River. In an area of the delta isolated from direct riverine sediment supply by anthropogenic blockage of historical distributaries, 0.5-m tall marsh cliffs along with concave marsh profiles indicate wave erosion is contributing to marsh retreat. This is further supported by a “natural experiment” provided by rocky outcrops that shelter high marsh in their lee, while being bounded by 0.5-m lower eroded marsh to windward and on either side. Coastal wetlands with high sediment supply are thought to be resilient to sea level rise, but the case of the Skagit Delta shows this is not necessarily true. A combination of sea level rise and wave-generated erosion may overwhelm sediment supply. Additionally, anthropogenic obstruction of historical distributaries and levee construction along the remaining distributaries likely increase the jet momentum of river discharge, forcing much suspended sediment to bypass the tidal marshes and be exported from Skagit Bay. Adaptive response to the threat of climate change related sea level rise and increased wave frequency or intensity should consider the efficacy of restoring historical distributaries and managed retreat of constrictive river levees to maximize sediment delivery to delta marshes.

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