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Research about Virginia

Source-linked reports with geographic coverage including Virginia.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

The bat signal: An ultraviolet light lure to increase acoustic detection of bats

Bats are a taxa of high conservation concern and are facing numerous threats including widespread mortality due to White-Nose Syndrome (WNS) in North America. With this decline comes increasing difficulty in monitoring imperiled bat species due to lower detection probabilities of both mist-netting and acoustic surveys. Lure technology shows promise to increase detection while decreasing sampling effort; however, to date research has primarily focused on increasing physical captures during mist-net surveys using sound lures. Because much bat monitoring is now performed using acoustic detection, there is a similar need to increase detection probabilities during acoustic surveys. Ultraviolet (UV) lights anecdotally have been shown to attract insects and thereby attract foraging bats for observational studies and to experimentally provide a food source for WNS-impacted bats before and after hibernation. Therefore, we constructed a field-portable and programmable UV lure device to determine the value of lures for increasing acoustic detection of bats. We tested if the lure device increased both the echolocation passes and feeding activity (feeding buzzes) across a transect of bat detectors. There was an increase in feeding activity around the UV light, with a nuanced, species-specific and positionally dependent effect on echolocation passes received. The UV light lure increased echolocation passes for the eastern red bat ( Lasiurus borealis ), little brown bat ( Myotis lucifugus ), and evening bat ( Nycticeius humeralis ), but decreased passes of the North American hoary bat ( Lasiurus cinereus ). The northern long-eared bat ( Myotis septentrionalis ) showed a negative response within the illuminated area but increased echolocation activity outside the illuminated area during lure treatment and activity was elevated at all positions after the lure was deactivated. Our study demonstrates some potential utility of UV lures in increasing the feeding activity and acoustic detection of bats. Additional research and development of UV lure technology may be beneficial, including alternating on and off periods to improve detection of light-averse species, and improving echolocation call quality along with the increase in received passes.

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Evidence of red fox (Vulpes vulpes) depredating a Saltmarsh Sparrow (Ammospiza caudacuta) nest

Saltmarsh Sparrows ( Ammospiza caudacuta ), a tidal-marsh specialist, face severe population declines due to habitat loss, sea-level rise, and predation. While previous research suggests that predation pressure increases at the southern extent of the species’ breeding range, data on local predator communities remain limited. To address this, we deployed game cameras at 16 Saltmarsh Sparrow nests across four salt marshes on Virginia’s eastern shore, the southern-most extent of their breeding range. Our study provides camera-documented evidence of red fox ( Vulpes vulpes ) predation on Saltmarsh Sparrow nests. We detected a suspected predation event by white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) and four other potential nest predators. Additionally, we detected a Willet ( Tringa semipalmata ) aggressively displacing a nesting female, suggesting interspecific interactions may contribute to nest failure.

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Estimated hydrogeologic, spatial, and temporal distribution of self-supplied domestic groundwater withdrawals for aquifers of the Virginia Coastal Plain

Water use from private-domestic wells accounts for nearly 40 percent of total groundwater withdrawals in the Virginia Coastal Plain Physiographic Province (henceforth called the Virginia Coastal Plain). However, because self-supplied domestic water use generally falls below the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality (VDEQ) reporting and management threshold of 300,000 gallons per month, quantifying these withdrawals is challenging. This report builds upon the foundation of previous U.S. Geological Survey investigations by providing revised techniques to improve estimates of the aquifer source, spatial distribution, and monthly magnitude of these groundwater withdrawals. The aquifer sources of private-domestic wells in the Virginia Coastal Plain were estimated by cross-referencing 8,264 well records from the VDEQ and the Virginia Department of Health to a digital model of the Virginia Coastal Plain hydrogeologic framework. This analysis highlights the regional importance of the Yorktown-Eastover, Potomac, and surficial aquifers. Collectively, these three aquifers account for 80 percent of self-supplied domestic groundwater withdrawals. The population using self-supplied domestic water was estimated using census blocks, well-use ratios, building footprints, and land-use and land-cover data to produce a high-resolution, disaggregated, raster-based dataset. This approach improves upon previous models at the census-block or road-network scale by reducing the low-density spread of the self-supplied domestic population across undeveloped areas and concentrating the population and its corresponding water use in the areas where it is most likely to occur. Results show that an estimated 475,332 people comprise the 2020 self-supplied domestic population of the Virginia Coastal Plain, an increase of 5.7 percent since 2010, and the greatest concentrations of self-supplied domestic population surround large cities. Estimates could be further refined with the addition of current and complete spatial data on public water-system service areas. The quantity of water used by the self-supplied domestic population was estimated by modifying published state per-capita water-use coefficients with the corresponding monthly variability assessed from Virginia Coastal Plain public water-system withdrawal data. This analysis estimates an average increase of 12 percent from June through August and an average decrease of 8 percent from December through March from the baseline annual average of 80 gallons per day per capita, which generally matches similar studies in the eastern United States. The application of these revised methodologies for the estimation of private-domestic wells and the self-supplied domestic population improves understanding of domestic groundwater use in the Virginia Coastal Plain across hydrogeologic, spatial, and temporal scales. These revisions help better inform water-resource managers and decision makers and support higher resolution groundwater modeling. Furthermore, these methods are transferrable to other areas where self-supplied domestic water withdrawals are important to the overall water budget.

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Spatiotemporal patterns in urban nutrient and suspended sediment loads and stream response to watershed management implementation

In recent years, local governments have invested heavily in management practices to reduce nutrient and sediment loads. These practices provide localities with nutrient and sediment regulatory reduction credits; however, their effects on water quality are poorly understood at the watershed scale. Long-term watershed-scale monitoring is essential for assessing progress toward water-quality goals, yet it has historically been lacking in urban watersheds. Since 2007, Fairfax County, Virginia, has partnered with the US Geological Survey to monitor and evaluate water-quality conditions in 20 small urban streams. This study assessed nutrient and suspended sediment loads, trends in concentration, and trends in load. Trends in load are affected by streamflow-induced variability that must be removed through a process called “flow-normalization;” however, existing methods have neither been applied to small urban watersheds nor to loads computed on a sub-daily timestep. In this study, four such methods also were assessed, and an adaptation of the weighted regressions on time, discharge, and season approach was found to be most effective. Loads, concentrations, and trends in load were spatially and temporally variable. Differences were attributed to physical watershed features such as geology, soils, and channel geomorphology, as well as urban sources such as turfgrass fertilization and septic infrastructure. Most notably, flow-normalized suspended sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorus loads decreased in two watersheds with completed stream restorations and increased in those with few implemented practices.

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Management strategy evaluation to assess trade-offs associated with invasive Blue Catfish fisheries and predation impacts

Objective Many species are intentionally introduced beyond their native range to provide benefits to humans (e.g., food, recreation, or biocontrol). However, introduced species can become invasive and can harm native species, prompting resource managers to explore options to simultaneously conserve native biota and enhance fishing opportunities. Management of Chesapeake Bay Blue Catfish Ictalurus furcatus is complicated because the species supports a renowned trophy fishery and commercial and recreational harvest but also negatively affects native species. Consequently, there is uncertainty and disagreement on how to balance trade-offs associated with varying stakeholder interests. Methods We used a management strategy evaluation to project Blue Catfish population dynamics into the future under different fishery policies to understand whether fishery yield, trophy fishing opportunities, and predation on the economically and ecologically important blue crab Callinectes sapidus could be optimized in the James River, a Chesapeake Bay subestuary. Results Simulated population trajectories indicated that objectives related to maintaining fisheries and conserving prey populations were in conflict. Policies that increased the yield and abundance of trophy-size Blue Catfish (≥100 cm total length) generally increased predation on the blue crab, which supports a valuable fishery. Intense harvest of smaller length-classes and protection of larger Blue Catfish yielded outcomes in which trophy fish abundance increased and blue crab predation declined compared to baseline conditions. However, these outcomes were generally associated with lower Blue Catfish yields after 25 years. There were zero scenarios in which the fishery yield increased and blue crab predation decreased after 25 years. Policies limiting the harvest of small Blue Catfish resulted in large population abundances, suggesting that reducing the abundance of small fish could be important for reducing impacts on native species. Conclusions This study supports the importance of management planning to develop objectives and performance measures based on an improved understanding of trade-offs associated with harvest management for a nonnative fish with economic value.

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Ordovician stratigraphy, structure, and karst of the Falling Spring Valley, Alleghany County, Virginia, USA

This one-day trip highlights new findings on a preliminary bedrock geologic map that shows results from ongoing geologic mapping in the Falling Spring Valley of Alleghany County, Virginia, USA, which is the southern end of the larger Warm Springs Valley, an elongated anticlinal valley rimmed by Ordovician and Silurian siliciclastic rocks, and which is famous for its thermal springs. This mapping includes stratigraphic, structural, and karst field and lab research focused on the Ordovician strata exposed in the area, the oldest of which is the dolomitic upper part of the Beekmantown Formation (Lower Ordovician, Darriwilian), and the youngest of which is the Juniata Formation (Upper Ordovician, Katian), a sequence of siliciclastic redbeds. Warm Springs Valley is the location of the only known caves in the eastern United States—three at present—with thermal waters flowing in some of their passages. Stops on the trip will highlight key details from mapping efforts, primarily within the structurally deformed Ordovician carbonate sequence that is exposed in the core and limbs of the anticline, as well as the associated karst features that are developed in those carbonate rocks, including results of recent dye traces and water temperature monitoring that have improved our understanding of the karst hydrogeologic systems developed in these strata.

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Geologic map of the Buckner 7.5-Minute quadrangle, Louisa County, Virginia

The Buckner 7.5-minute quadrangle straddles three terrane boundaries in the Piedmont Physiographic Province in central Virginia: the Chopawamsic terrane, the Elk Hill Complex, and the Goochland terrane. In much of the map area, the Elk Hill Complex separates the Chopawamsic and Goochland terranes. Rocks of the Chopawamsic terrane include Ordovician metavolcanic and metasedimentary rocks of the Chopawamsic Formation, Ordovician to Silurian granodiorite sheet intrusions, and Paleozoic mafic intrusions. Silurian to Devonian rocks of the Quantico Formation, mostly garnet-mica schist, crop out in the northwesternmost part of the map area, and are in unconformable contact with rocks of the Chopawamsic Formation on the southeastern limb of the Quantico synclinorium. The main map unit in the Elk Hill Complex is Neoproterozoic mica gneiss, which is in pre-metamorphic fault contact with rocks of the Chopawamsic Formation to the west. The main map unit of the Goochland terrane is the Maidens Gneiss. Except for Jurassic diabase dikes, all rocks on the Buckner 7.5-minute quadrangle were metamorphosed to amphibolite facies during the Alleghanian orogeny and preserve multiple compositional and phyllosilicate penetrative foliations. Evidence of amphibolite-facies metamorphism during the Taconic orogeny is preserved in rocks of the Elk Hill Complex. The entire width of the Maidens Gneiss on the Buckner 7.5-minute quadrangle is within the Spotsylvania high-strain zone and amphibolite-facies mylonitic textures are pervasive. Quartz veins and Jurassic diabase dikes crosscut all older rocks of the quadrangle. Multiple levels of terrace deposits are present along and near the major streams of the quadrangle. The lower terrace deposits are likely remnants of former positions of the Little River on the landscape, whereas higher deposits may be remnants of former deposits of the Atlantic Coastal Plain that covered this portion of the Piedmont Province. A linear cluster of aftershocks from the magnitude 5.8 earthquake that occurred near Mineral, Virginia, in 2011 defines the Fredericks Hall fault, which is at depth on the Buckner quadrangle. Most of the aftershocks occurred in the core of the Elk Creek antiform and have no relation to faults mapped at the surface. Several abandoned crushed stone and building stone quarries, as well as a mica prospect, exist in the quadrangle.

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Temporal and spatial comparison of coal mine ventilation methane emissions and mitigation quantified using PRISMA satellite data and on-site measurements

Emission monitoring at the facility level (bottom-up, BU) is key for accurate reporting of coal mine methane (CMM) emissions. Recent advances in aerial and satellite observations (top-down, TD) indicate that these methods have the potential to support CMM emissions monitoring and reporting of, as well as track the effectiveness of, mitigation actions. That said, studies have shown discrepancies between BU and TD estimations. Performing TD monitoring with concurrent BU measurements at the same mines may help address the observed discrepancies and improve quantification methods to narrow the gap between BU and TD data. This paper presents a comparison of concurrent BU-TD methane emission fluxes monitored from two ventilation shafts at a southwestern Virginia, USA, longwall mine to complement the existing body of studies on satellite-based monitoring of coal mines by incorporating continuous ground-based monitoring with concurrent TD monitoring of methane emission fluxes to address the gap and provide valuable insights into temporal emission patterns. The shafts were monitored on multiple dates between 2020 and 2023. BU monitoring was performed at the exhaust fans, while TD quantifications used PRISMA hyperspectral satellite data and two different wind reanalysis datasets (i.e., GEOS-FP and ERA5). This mine also offered a unique opportunity for BU-TD comparisons before and after ventilation air methane (VAM) oxidizer operation, which was installed at one of the shafts in 2022. The results showed that TD-estimated mean fluxes were generally lower than BU data, which were attributed to quantification difficulties associated with the low albedo caused by heavy vegetation and the terrain of the area. However, despite the discrepancies in mean emissions, both the interquartile range and the data range of the distributions generally overlapped, and the estimates correctly showed the emission trends.

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Stratigraphy, structure, and geomorphology of the central Appalachians across the North Mountain fault zone near Harrisonburg, Virginia, USA

This field trip focuses on the geology of the central Appalachian Valley and Ridge province near Harrisonburg, Virginia, USA. Recent geologic mapping utilizing 1-m resolution lidar data has revealed new insights into the Paleozoic stratigraphy, structural geology, and Neogene landscape evolution of the region. The detailed mapping reveals the presence of the Big Spring Station Member and multiple thrombolite zones in the Cambrian Conococheague Formation extending as far south as the Briery Branch 7.5 min quadrangle, providing insights into Late Cambrian sea-level fluctuations. Multiple outcrop exposures in the study area of this guidebook confirm recent work in Pennsylvania, USA, showing that the Ordovician Reedsville Shale overlies the Martinsburg Formation and that the two are distinct and mappable as separate formations rather than laterally equivalent units as previously interpreted. Our work extends the Silurian Williamsport Sandstone into Shenandoah County, Virginia, and describes its facies relationships with the Bloomsburg Formation along strike and across the Adams Run anticline. Mapping within the thick Devonian siliciclastic sequence reveals the presence of the Mahantango Formation on the western limb of Supin Lick syncline and illustrates its complex facies relationship with the Millboro Shale. In addition, we highlight new mapping criteria for the Brallier and Foreknobs Formations and demonstrate how the specific changes to the placement of the contact between them addresses previous challenges in their differentiation. We present cosmogenic burial ages of broad alluvial fan sediments in the Shenandoah Valley near Timberville and Briery Branch, Virginia, and erosion rates estimated for the Briery Branch stream basin. Both analyses provide new constraints on the timing of landscape evolution and karst development since the middle Pliocene. This field guide also highlights some significant structural features within the North Mountain fault zone, such as evidence of imbricated thrust sheets cut by cross-strike faults that have been exploited by Eocene igneous intrusions. Map-scale horses of Silurian and Ordovician rocks hold up ridges that are oblique to the regional strike. Deformation internal to one of these horse blocks is shown to be non-coaxial with respect to the main regional northwest directed transport.

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Resource selection of the southern fox squirrel (Sciurus niger niger) in the coastal plain of Virginia

The southern fox squirrel ( Sciurus niger niger ) is a subspecies of fox squirrel that ranges from southeastern Virginia to northern Florida. Throughout its Southeastern range, southern fox squirrel habitat of natural mixed pine-hardwood forests has been fragmented by agriculture and short-rotation pine plantations. In Virginia, remaining habitat has been transformed by fire suppression on the landscape and has in turn resulted in small, disjunct populations of southern fox squirrels. We sought to identify the home range and resource utilization of southern fox squirrels in the southern Coastal Plain of Virginia. From established nest boxes, we captured, radio collared and tracked four individuals at Big Woods Wildlife Management area and Piney Grove Complex in Sussex County in 2022. We observed an average male 95% and 50% adaptive kernel home range 173.49 ha (SE = 25.73, N = 2) and 40.62 ha (SE = 5.87, N = 2), respectively and an average female 95% and 50% adaptive kernel home range of 28.51 ha (SE = 0.49, N = 2) and 4.71 ha (SE = 0.34, N = 2), respectively. At both the second and third orders of habitat selection, squirrels selected for pine savanna cover types and short fire-return intervals.

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Reducing uncertainty with iterative model updating parses effects of competition and environment on salamander occupancy

Making timely management decisions is often hindered by uncertainty. Monitoring reduces two key types of uncertainty. First, it serves to reduce structural uncertainty of how the system works and provides support for expectations of how a system works. Second, it serves to reduce parametric uncertainty of the drivers of system dynamics. By combining monitoring data and quantitative models, we can reduce structural and parametric uncertainty. To demonstrate this, we focus on the Shenandoah salamander ( Plethodon shenandoah ), a United States Federally Endangered Species. Early work suggested that P. shenandoah extinction risk results from competition with a conspecific ( Plethodon cinereus ). However, more recent work has found equivocal support for this claim, instead suggesting that abiotic factors, such as moisture and temperature, drive P. shenandoah persistence. Using long-term monitoring data, we find that while competition may play a part in P. shenandoah extinction risk, measures of surface moisture are better predictors of occupancy dynamics. Further, we find decreased detection rates of P. shenandoah when P. cinereus is present, suggesting a conflation of detection probability with actual competition, which cautions against making inference from unadjusted observations of occurrence. Using multiple lines of inquiry allows for more robust understanding of system drivers in the face of high uncertainty, increasing opportunities to manage extinction risk.

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Utility of an instantaneous salt dilution method for measuring streamflow in headwater streams

Streamflow records are biased toward large streams and rivers, yet small headwater streams are often the focus of ecological research in response to climate change. Conventional flow measurement instruments such as acoustic Doppler velocimeters (ADVs) do not perform well during low-flow conditions in small streams, truncating the development of rating curves during critical baseflow conditions dominated by groundwater inflow. We revisited an instantaneous solute tracer injection method as an alternative to ADVs based on paired measurements to compare their precision, efficiency, and feasibility within headwater streams across a range of flow conditions. We show that the precision of discharge measurements using salt dilution by slug injection and ADV methods were comparable overall, but salt dilution was more precise during the lowest flows and required less time to implement. Often, headwater streams were at or below the depth threshold where ADV measurements could even be attempted and transects were complicated by coarse bed material and cobbles. We discuss the methodological benefits and limitations of salt dilution by slug injection and conclude that the method could facilitate a proliferation of streamflow observation across headwater stream networks that are highly undersampled compared to larger streams.

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Discovery of giant and conventional magnetofossils bookending Cretaceous Oceanic Anoxic Event 2

Conventional magnetofossils are the remains of magnetotactic bacteria and giant magnetofossils are the remains of iron biomineralizing organisms that have not yet been identified. We report the oldest robust conventional and giant magnetofossil records, ~97 Ma, from marine sediments drilled in Holland Park, Virginia, USA. The Holland Park core records the Cenomanian-Turonian boundary and Oceanic-Anoxic Event 2 (OAE2). Magnetic datasets indicate single domain magnetite within the clay-rich sediments bookending OAE2. Electron microscopy images from these intervals highlight conventional and giant magnetofossil morphologies, including three potentially new giant magnetofossil morphologies: seeds, squash, and spades. There is an overall high abundance and morphological disparity of magnetofossils at Holland Park. However, we observe abundance, disparity, and preservation changes between the magnetofossil assemblages bookending OAE2. Our observations provide clues toward understanding the ecological thresholds of the enigmatic organisms that produce giant magnetofossils and evidence that magnetofossils may be widely distributed in the geologic record.

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Characterization of the water resources of the Pamunkey River watershed in Virginia—A review of water science, management, and traditional ecological knowledge

In central Virginia, the Pamunkey Indian Tribe and Reservation are facing increasingly complex water resource issues related to quantity and quality. Documentation of surface-water, groundwater, water quality, land subsidence, sea-level rise, and river ecology issues in the Pamunkey River watershed and incorporation of traditional ecological knowledge into these research topics may improve understanding of the water resources broadly. This report summarizes the relevant traditional ecological knowledge and scientific literature to elucidate gaps in the total combined knowledge of a suite of water science topics concerning the Pamunkey River watershed. This suite of water science topics includes some of the issues that the Pamunkey Indian Tribe and Reservation are facing within the watershed: fragmentation of streams and management of streamflow, flooding, degrading water quality, groundwater extraction, relative sea-level rise, rapid changes in ecosystems, loss of ecological and biological diversity, and climate change. Gaps in total combined knowledge are pervasive throughout each of these water resource topics. Identifying these knowledge gaps can help inform future research and management strategies.

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The effects of wastewater reuse on smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) relative abundance in the Shenandoah River Watershed, USA

Municipal and industrial wastewater effluent is an important source of water for lotic systems, especially during periods of low flow. The accumulated wastewater effluent flows—expressed as a percentage of total streamflow (ACCWW%)—contain chemical mixtures that pose a risk to aquatic life; fish may be particularly vulnerable when chronically exposed. Although there has been considerable focus on individual-level effects of exposure to chemical mixtures found in wastewater effluent, scaling up to population-level effects remains a challenging component needed to better understand the potential consequences of exposure in wild populations. This may be particularly important under a changing climate in which wastewater reuse could be essential to maintain river flows. We evaluated the effects of chronic exposure to wastewater effluent, as measured by ACCWW%, on the relative abundance of young-of-year (YOY), juvenile, and adult smallmouth bass ( Micropterus dolomieu ) populations in the Shenandoah River Watershed (USA). We found that increases in ACCWW% in the previous year and during the prespawn period were negatively correlated with the relative abundance of YOY, resulting in an average 41% predicted decrease in abundance (range = 0.5%–94% predicted decrease in abundance). This lagged effect suggests that adult fish reproductive performance may be compromised by chemical exposure during periods of high ACCWW%. No relationships between ACCWW% and juvenile or adult relative abundance were found, suggesting that negative effects of ACCWW% on YOY abundance may be offset due to compensatory mechanisms following higher ACCWW% exposure. Understanding the effects of wastewater effluent exposure at multiple levels of biological organization will help in the development of management strategies aimed at protecting aquatic life. Environ Toxicol Chem 2024;43:1138–1148. © 2024 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of SETAC. This article has been contributed to by U.S. Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.

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What the cliffs near America’s earliest settlements tell us about climate change

Climate change is a big problem for natural habitats, people, and the systems that support society, including roads, water supply, electrical grids, and phone and internet connections. It’s an important theme in politics, economics, and culture. Scientists make computer models to show what the climate might be like in the future, and it looks very different from what we are used to. Scientists can also learn about the future climate by looking at geological records from the past. About 3 million years ago, most of the US east coast was under water. Sediments that collected on the ocean floor show what the ocean environment was like back then. Some of these sediments are now exposed above water as bluffs along the James River near colonial Jamestown in southeastern Virginia, and they hold many clues as to what Earth may look like in the future.

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Small forested watershed weathers effects of climate change better than a nearby urban watershed in Northern Virginia, USA

South Fork Quantico Creek (SFQ; 19.8 square kilometre (km 2 ), forested) and Fourmile Run (4MR; 32.4-km 2 , urban) are small watersheds in northern Virginia, United States. Precipitation and streamflow data for both watersheds were examined from water year (WY) 1952 through 2022. Temporal changes in hydrologic metrics were identified by calculating trends in annual precipitation, annual peak flow, mean daily flow, minimum daily flow, stream flashiness, and the runoff ratio. The impact of climate and urbanization on watershed hydrology was assessed by computing trends on both raw and precipitation-adjusted data. Despite increasing precipitation in both watersheds, increasing monotonic trends in most hydrologic metrics were observed only in 4MR. At 4MR, the long-term trend in annual peak flow was non-linear, thus trends were calculated on separate periods. Annual peak flow increased from WY 1952 through 1968, coinciding with a period of rapid urbanization. During WY 1969 through 1981, annual peak flows decreased, coinciding with construction of a flood channelization project. Trends for both periods were robust to precipitation adjustment. From WY 1982 through 2022, no change in the precipitation-adjusted annual peak flows occurred, suggesting annual peak flows increased due to climate factors during this period. Comparison of area-normalized hydrologic metrics between the two watersheds revealed higher flows in 4MR than SFQ across all flows, not just high flows. Runoff ratio and stream flashiness also were higher in 4MR. Differences in hydrologic metrics between the two watersheds were driven primarily by differences in land use, land cover, and modifications to the water balance related to urbanization. Climate change has altered watershed hydrology at both sites, but extensive urbanization in 4MR has altered the hydrology more than that of SFQ. We conclude that urban watersheds are likely at greater risk of increased flooding than less developed areas as the climate intensifies.

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Strong variation in Brook Trout trends across geology, elevation, and stream size in Shenandoah National Park

Objective Landscape context structures fish abundance and dynamics, and understanding trends in fish abundance across the landscape is often prerequisite for effective conservation. In this study, we evaluated the status and trends of Brook Trout Salvelinus fontinalis in Shenandoah National Park to understand how these are structured across bedrock geology, elevation, and stream size. Methods We used long-term monitoring data from 94 sites in Shenandoah National Park to evaluate trends in Brook Trout abundance over a 27-year period (1996–2022) and assess the importance of local environmental covariates using a hierarchical Bayesian N-mixture model based on depletion sampling. Focal covariates were chosen for their demonstrated importance in structuring fish populations in Shenandoah National Park and elsewhere. Bedrock geology controls sensitivity to acid deposition, watershed area is related to stream habitat features such as complexity and flow variability, and elevation creates gradients in temperature. Result Models revealed significant decreases in adult Brook Trout abundance over time (95% credible intervals < 0) for 31 of 94 sites (33%), and at least three sites exhibited apparent extirpations over the study period. Estimated Brook Trout abundance declined by 50% or more in approximately 70% of streams across the park over the study period. Sites with the warmest water temperatures exhibited the fastest declines in abundance. However, large watersheds on poorly buffered bedrock exhibited significant gains in abundance over time, suggesting some recovery from acid deposition due to improvements in air quality. Conclusion Our analysis revealed large and divergent changes in Brook Trout abundance over recent decades and suggests the importance of local water temperature and acid sensitivity as probable causal mechanisms. These results highlight the importance of considering local factors when evaluating long-term trends in stream fish populations. Results of this study can assist the development of targeted conservation actions within Shenandoah National Park and elsewhere.

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