Geology topics

Research about United States

Source-linked reports with geographic coverage including United States.

At least 1,207 records · Page 67Linked to original sources

USGS2025

Multidecadal change in pesticide concentrations relative to human health benchmarks in the Nation’s groundwater

Groundwater-quality trend assessments identify aquifers that are responding to changes in pesticide use and the compounds that may pose a threat to water availability. The U.S. Geological Survey has been monitoring pesticide concentrations in groundwater for 25 principal aquifers across the conterminous United States since 1993. The groundwater well locations represent a range of soils, climate, and landforms. The wells are used to monitor groundwater underlying selected agricultural and urban settings and groundwater used for domestic supply. This study examined changes in relative concentrations, defined here as the percentage of wells with pesticide concentrations exceeding a human health benchmark (HHB). HHBs used in this report are legally enforceable drinking-water standards and nonenforceable drinking water levels. Relative pesticide concentration increases may lead to decreased water availability, as restrictions may be put in place for groundwater used as a drinking-water source. This study focused on concentration changes in 22 pesticides that were included in laboratory analysis from 1993 to 2023. The analysis and interpretation of these pesticide concentrations in groundwater have been separated into approximate decadal intervals (decade 1 (1993–2001), decade 2 (2002–12), and decade 3 (2013–22). For one pesticide, 1,2-dibromo-3-chloropropane (DBCP), concentration data were also collected in decade 4 (2023–onward). Atrazine, deethylatrazine, alachlor, prometon, and simazine were 5 pesticides detected at moderate concentrations (greater than 10 percent of the HHB but less than or equal to the HHB). The percentage of wells that had groundwater pesticide concentrations in the moderate concentration category decreased from 7 percent in decade 1 to 2 percent in decade 3. The agricultural networks had the highest percentages of wells with moderate concentrations, and these percentages decreased from 13 percent in decade 1 to 4 percent in decade 3. Moderate concentrations in the urban networks decreased between decades 1 and 2 from 4 percent to 0 percent. No moderate concentrations occurred in the urban networks in decade 3. The percentage of wells with moderate concentrations in the domestic supply networks (1 percent) was the lowest of all the network types and did not change across the three decades. Moderate atrazine or deethylatrazine concentrations occurred across all three decades in aggregated ecoregions representing similar soils, climate, and landforms in the Semiarid West, Midcontinent, and Northeastern United States. Moderate concentrations of prometon, alachlor, and simazine also occurred in the Midcontinent, Arid West, Northeast, South Atlantic Gulf, and Semiarid West regions, but the moderate concentrations did not persist across all three decades. DBCP was the only pesticide that exceeded its respective HHB, and the exceedances occurred across all four decades. In this report, the DBCP analysis was limited to one well network in the Central Valley, California. Agricultural use of DBCP was suspended in 1977. Forty-five years after being banned, DBCP concentrations were greater than the maximum contaminant level of 2 micrograms per liter (μg/L), but the number of exceedances decreased from 50 percent to 15 percent of the samples between 1993 and 2023. This assessment of decadal groundwater pesticide concentrations provides a characterization of changes in water availability because of pesticide contamination in areas where groundwater is used as a drinking-water source. The results highlight the importance of continued long-term monitoring and assessment of groundwater pesticides to identify locations and specific compounds that may pose a potential risk to human health.

continental United States↗

USGS2025

Future forest conditions under alternative management and hydrological scenarios in the Upper Mississippi River floodplain

Context Floodplain forests are being transformed by multiple pressures, prompting widespread management and restoration efforts. It is uncertain how disturbances, including hydrologic change, and management actions will interact to influence the ecology of these threatened forests. Objectives This study examined the effects of alternative management and hydrologic regimes on forest succession at an Upper Mississippi River floodplain site with a restoration project in planning. Methods We used the spatially explicit forest landscape model, LANDIS-II, to simulate forest succession for 100 years under four hydrogeomorphic management scenarios, three forest management scenarios, and two scenarios of future hydrologic conditions. We evaluated changes in forest biomass and composition over time and assessed the relative importance of management actions and hydrologic change on succession. Results Forest aboveground biomass decreased in all management-hydrology scenarios, especially in the wetter hydrological scenario. Intensified hydrogeomorphic and forest management scenarios reduced the magnitude and extent of biomass declines; however, they were unable to prevent overall declines in biomass or cause large shifts in tree species composition. Silver maple ( Acer saccharinum ) was projected to decrease in biomass, while increases in biomass were projected for several late-successional species including swamp white oak ( Quercus bicolor ). Among the factors influencing variation in biomass, forest management had the largest influence in the first 50 years of our simulations, but hydrological regime became the most important factor by the end of the century. Conclusions Our simulations indicate that management actions could play an important role in the conservation of floodplain forests, but their effectiveness will likely be limited if recent upward trends in flooding conditions in this system continue in the future. Thus, our results highlight both the potential benefits and limitations of management actions in the face of hydrologic change.

Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin↗

USGS2025

Quantifying groundwater response and uncertainty in beaver-influenced mountainous floodplains using machine learning-based model calibration

Beavers ( Castor canadensis ) alter river corridor hydrology by creating ponds and inundating floodplains, and thereby improving surface water storage. However, the impact of inundation on groundwater, particularly in mountainous alluvial floodplains with permeable gravel/cobble layers overlain by a soil layer, remains uncertain. Numerical modeling across various floodplain structures considers topographic and sediment complexity and multidirectional flow, linking inundation to groundwater response. This study develops a model-data integration workflow to address uncertainty in groundwater response to beaver-induced inundations in a mountainous alluvial floodplain in the Upper Colorado River Basin. Uncertain factors include seasonal hydrologic dynamics, hydraulic conductivities, floodplain structures, and meteorological forcings. We employed an ensemble of groundwater models, based on geophysical and hydrologic data, with machine learning-based calibration using a neural density estimator. This allowed us to quantify the vertical flux from the soil layer to the permeable gravel bed, the down-valley underflow within the gravel bed, and their ratios. Results show a significant increase in the vertical flux relative to down-valley underflow, from 2% during dry pond periods to 20% during wet periods, serving as an analogy for conditions without and with beaver ponds. The study highlights the influence of floodplain structure on groundwater storage, water balance, and water quality impacted by beaver ponds. A thick gravel bed layer, with a large down-valley underflow, minimizes the effect of beaver-induced inundation on water quality. We emphasize the need for field-scale measurements of floodplain structure and improved characterization of evapotranspiration changes to reduce uncertainty in groundwater response.

Colorado↗

USGS2025

Unveiling coseismic deformation from differenced legacy aerial photography and modern lidar topography: The 1983 M6.9 Borah Peak earthquake, Idaho, USA

The 1983 M6.9 Borah Peak, Idaho, earthquake is one of the largest historical normal fault earthquakes in the western United States. We quantified meter-scale vertical change along the 35 km-long rupture using topographic differencing of 1966 aerial imagery and 2019 lidar-derived data. The initial differencing results are largely obscured by horizontal and vertical georeferencing errors and flight-line stripes. Our error corrections are designed to be insensitive to the coseismic deformation and reduced error by 50%. We calculated vertical separation and resolved a maximum of 2.02 ± 0.46 m at Doublespring Pass. Our vertical separation measurements are generally consistent with those from prior studies using field data and post-earthquake topographic data. However, the differencing measurements are a few decimeters lower than these prior measurements, indicating that differencing can isolate historical from prehistoric earthquake deformation. Our study demonstrates that revisiting historical earthquakes can provide new insights into the magnitude and patterns of coseismic deformation.

Idaho↗

USGS2025

Host preferences of non-native Acalolepta aesthetica (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) on the Island of Hawai'i

1. Understanding the host preferences of non-native polyphagous insects is a key step in anticipating their impacts. 2. We apply a technique from wildlife ecology, a resource selection function, to quantify the host preferences of Acalolepta aesthetica Olliff (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae: Lamiinae) in its non-native range on the Island of Hawaiʻi. We then visually surveyed its preferred host to map its distributional extent and conducted laboratory no-choice tests to assess risks to common native woody species. 3. The preferred host of A. aesthetica was the state tree, Aleurites moluccanus (L.) Willd., the kukui (or candlenut). Cacao ( Theobroma cacao L.) was the second most preferred host. Infestations were also observed in Citrus species, Artocarpus altilis (Parkinson) Fosberg (ʻulu or breadfruit) and Persea americana Mill. (avocado), but preferences among these taxa were statistically indistinguishable. 4. Acalolepta aesthetica females oviposited on all tested species in no-choice trials, but larvae growing within ʻōhiʻa ( Metrosideros polymorpha Gaudich.) and koa ( Acacia koa A. Gray) died. It therefore poses a low risk to these two tree species, which are foundational to Hawaiian native forests. Acalolepta aesthetica was able to complete its development within ʻōlapa ( Cheirodendron trigynum (Gaudich.) A. Heller), which could be monitored if the distribution of A. aesthetica spreads to native forests. 5. The host species preferred by A. aesthetica are highly valued for agricultural, horticultural and cultural uses. Developing monitoring and management techniques for this cerambycid and employing strong biosecurity could prevent human-mediated spread and limit negative impacts to other Hawaiian Islands, the U.S. mainland, and the world.

Hawaii↗

USGS2025

Long-term monitoring of island night lizards on San Nicolas Island

We describe the results of long-term population monitoring of the island night lizard Xantusia riversiana on San Nicolas Island, California, following the species' removal from the U.S. Endangered Species list in 2014. Monitoring activities were carried out from October 2014 through November 2023, but we also incorporate data from earlier work dating back to 1993. Because of habitat loss on the western part of the island, the island night lizard is almost entirely confined to the island's eastern half. The species' distribution remains largely the same since studies in the 1990s, though small increases in distribution were noted at the island's west end. Numbers at most long-term monitoring sites appeared to show a slight decrease associated with a multi-year drought, with numbers returning to previous levels by the end of the monitoring period. Models fit to counts of newly recruited lizards suggested a positive association between winter precipitation and abundance; however, we found a simpler model including constant abundance throughout the study to be more parsimonious. Two monitoring sites showed marked decreases in numbers, with one site declining to zero following infestation of the area by non-native Argentine ants Linepithema humile . The island's vegetation and natural communities continue to gradually recover from a century of overgrazing by sheep and the widespread introduction of aggressive non-native plants. Habitat restoration efforts by U.S. Navy natural resources staff on the island may lead to increasing population numbers and genetic connectivity, but persistent threats remain for the island night lizard on San Nicolas Island.

California↗

USGS2025

Discharge and nutrients interact to determine trophic structure in a wetland: Evidence from a landscape-scale manipulation

Identifying drivers of consumer biomass patterns and community structure is complex for managed freshwater ecosystems that are sensitive to nutrients and drought. In the Florida Everglades, flow restoration is expected to reintroduce discharge across an expansive wetland, yet most research on consumers has focused on water depth and dry disturbances. Low-velocity flow can mediate nutrient availability for basal food resources, but its scaled-up effects on consumer communities remain largely untested. We quantified consumer responses to a landscape-scale flow manipulation that created discharge variability along a 2.5-km path of interconnected shallow sloughs. Over 4 yr, we repeatedly sampled macroinvertebrates, small fishes, and large predatory fishes (standard length > 8 cm) in 26 sloughs—some along a flow path experiencing pulsed water releases and others in two non-flowing reference areas. We tested the effects of antecedent discharge on consumer biomass while accounting for local nutrient concentrations (total phosphorus). Discharge increased biomass across all consumer groups, particularly in oligotrophic sloughs. Conversely, eutrophic sloughs demonstrated stronger top-down effects on small fishes and macroinvertebrates, with discharge primarily benefiting large predatory fishes. Nutrient gradients preferentially increased large fishes and caused macroinvertebrate community shifts favoring herbivorous and possibly predation-resistant taxa. Structural equation modeling similarly indicated bottom-up support from discharge but stronger top-down control in nutrient-rich sloughs. These findings demonstrate that discharge and total phosphorus interactively produce distinct consumer biomass patterns. Flow restoration in oligotrophic Everglades sloughs is hypothesized to enhance aquatic consumer biomass across trophic levels, revealing an ecological benefit to slow-flowing ecosystems not previously recognized.

Florida↗

USGS2025

Evaluation of juvenile salmon behavior to inform downstream fish passage development at a high head dam

F ish passage development is a priority at Tieton Dam, on the Tieton River in Washington state, because passage options were not included when the dam was constructed nearly 100 years ago. To inform downstream passage design, we conducted a study to evaluate migration and near-dam behavior of juvenile salmon. The primary goal of the study was to determine how fish approached the dam and to identify areas where they congregated. In its current configuration, water is passed through a deep intake located approximately 548 m upstream of the dam, so there was interest in determining if juvenile salmon spent more time near the intake or at the dam. We found that tagged fish primarily entered the dam forebay offshore and arrived at the dam near the spillway on the left bank of the reservoir. Tagged fish had extended residence times in the forebay and moved repeatedly between the intake and the dam. Using thermal profile data, we inferred that juvenile salmon likely occupied the upper 5 m of the water column during May and June before moving to deeper portions of the water column (10–27 m) during July–September when the reservoir became thermally stratified. We found that a small percentage of tagged fish passed the dam when the reservoir was rapidly drawn down during August–October, but additional research may be needed to fully assess entrainment risk through the intake. These findings suggest that downstream fish passage could be developed at Tieton Dam with a high probability of success, given that most fish survived reservoir passage and spent considerable time near the dam where they would be available to discover and utilize new passage routes.

Washington↗

USGS2025

Irrigated agriculture influences selenium levels in an endangered marsh bird

Selenium bioaccumulation in aquatic food webs poses risks to wildlife, particularly in wetlands receiving irrigation runoff. The Salton Sea, California’s largest lake, is primarily sustained by agricultural drainage. This drainage creates wetland habitat along the lakeshore that many bird species depend on, including the federally endangered Yuma Ridgway’s rail ( Rallus obsoletus yumanensis ). However, these marshes may pose an ecological trap – attracting rails despite high selenium exposure. We captured rails during the 2020–2023 breeding seasons and compared rail selenium levels within three types of marshes (fed with irrigation runoff, Colorado River water, or groundwater). We collected blood, breast feathers, and head feathers of rails in all three water sources for selenium comparisons. We tagged adult rails with GPS transmitters to locate nests and foraging locations where we collected eggshells, unhatched eggs, and prey. We assessed selenium exposure by collecting multiple prey species commonly eaten by rails in all three water sources. Selenium concentrations varied among sampling locations. Selenium concentrations in most sample types were predominately influenced by water source and marsh inflow velocity (sometimes in combination with marsh size). Distance to inflow, however, did not influence selenium concentrations in any sample type. Selenium concentrations were highest in agricultural-fed marshes compared to river-fed and spring-fed marshes. Increased marsh inflow velocities resulted in lower selenium concentrations. Given the risk of an ecological trap, our results suggest that supplementing wetlands with Colorado River water could mitigate selenium bioaccumulation in Yuma Ridgway’s rails.

California↗

USGS2025

Diverging fish biodiversity trends in cold and warm rivers and streams

Worldwide, freshwater systems contain more than 18,000 fish species 1,2,3 , which are critical to the functioning of these ecosystems 4 and are vital cultural and economic resources to humans 5,6,7 ; despite this value, fish biodiversity is at risk globally 8,9 . In the USA, leading threats to fish communities in rivers and streams include climate change and invasive fish introductions and game fish stocking by humans 10,11,12,13,14 . Here we harmonized US federal biomonitoring datasets with 389 species spanning 27 years (1993–2019) and 2,992 sites to analyse trends in fish biodiversity. In cold streams (past summer stream temperatures below 15.4 °C), fish abundance and richness declined by 53.4% and 32% over 27 years, respectively, and uniqueness increased. Periodic (large-bodied, late-maturing) fishes increased, and opportunists (small-bodied, short generation time, ‘r-selected’) decreased, possibly due to proliferation of native or introduced game fishes. In warm streams (stream temperatures greater than 23.8 °C), fish abundance and richness increased by 70.5% and 15.6% over 27 years, respectively, and communities homogenized. Small opportunistic fishes replaced large periodic fishes. Intermediate streams (stream temperatures 15.4–23.8 °C), representing the average stream, had minimal changes in fish biodiversity through time. Interactions between warming and introduced fish were associated with increased rates of degradation to local fish biodiversity. Given the magnitude of these changes in a relatively short time span, there is an urgent need to curb degradation of fish biodiversity caused by fish introductions and warming water temperatures.

continental United States↗

USGS2025

Fluid inclusion constraints on the geometry of the magmatic plumbing system beneath Mauna Loa – Part 2: Xenoliths

Mauna Loa volcano erupts crystal-poor material at its summit and more crystal-rich material on its rift zones. Some of the more olivine-rich lava flows contain xenoliths with diverse mineralogy, including cumulate harzburgites with high-Mg# orthopyroxenes and high-Fo olivines (both > 84). Previous experimental work and thermodynamic modelling has proposed that high-Mg# orthopyroxenes only crystallize from Mauna Loa melts at high pressures (> 6 kbar, > 20 km), leading to suggestions that there is a region of sub-Moho magma storage at Mauna Loa in addition to the geophysically imaged magma reservoir at 2–5 km depth below the summit. We use melt and fluid inclusion barometry combined with thermodynamic models to further investigate this suggestion. Fluid inclusion data from harzburgites and dunitic xenoliths yield storage depths remarkably similar to those found in non-xenolithic crystals from lavas and tephras, with a clear peak at ~ 2–3 km (below the summit). Depths from melt inclusions in these xenoliths overlap with fluid inclusion pressures, ruling out the possibility of fluid inclusion re-equilibration during a period of stalling in a shallower reservoir. We examine five different thermodynamic models and find that the minimum pressure of olivine-orthopyroxene co-saturation varies by ~ 4 kbar (~ 12 km). These models also fail to predict that orthopyroxene is stable in ~ 15–80% of compositionally relevant experimental charges which grew orthopyroxene. Overall, this shows that phase stability modelling is an unreliable method of determining magma storage depth at Mauna Loa. We suggest that model discrepancies reflect a lack of experimental constraints on orthopyroxene stability at > 1200 ℃ and 0.01–5 kbar. Based on the presence of large oikocrystic orthopyroxenes completely enclosing rounded olivine chadacrysts, we suggest that these harzburgitic xenoliths formed through the reaction of intruding melts with olivine mush piles within the Mauna Loa edifice at ~ 3 km depth below the summit, with no need for a deeper storage reservoir. The predominance of pre-eruptive shallow storage means that there is more chance of detecting reservoir destabilization with geophysical monitoring techniques compared to a scenario where melts are supplied from sub-Moho reservoirs.

Hawaii↗

USGS2025

A simple predictive model for salt marsh internal deterioration under sea-level rise and sediment deficits: Application to Chesapeake Bay

Salt marshes are dynamic biogeomorphic systems reliant on autochthonous and allochthonous input to maintain their three-dimensional configuration. Sea-level rise, subsidence, and sediment deficits can lead to submergence, open-water expansion, and ultimately loss of the vegetated marsh plain and associated ecosystem services. Widely used management-focused models focus on vegetation zonation in response to sea level but neglect sediment transport processes and geomorphic change. Process-based research models attempt to represent complex physical and biogeomorphic interactions but operate on spatiotemporal scales that are not directly transferable to restoration or management. Here we bridge these two paradigms and present a novel geomorphic model (UBMorph) based on the sediment-based lifespan concept that accounts for sea-level rise and open-water expansion to predict changes in salt marsh area in Chesapeake Bay. Model parameters such as surface accretion rate and elevation-to-areal loss fraction are selected using a separate, fully coupled biogeomorphic model (MarshMorpho2D) and the predicted lifespan is then compared with high marsh coverage from a zonation model (SLAMM). Across all of Chesapeake Bay, UBMorph estimates an overall loss of 404 km 2 (37%) of vegetated marsh area under a dynamic 3–12 mm/y sea-level rise scenario (between 2010 and 2110). We then demonstrate a management-focused application of UBMorph and SLAMM used in tandem, for developing both a marsh condition and restoration model of the Chesapeake Bay portion of Maryland. The restoration model, which includes hydrologic intervention and sediment placement actions, indicates that ~ 400 km 2 of marsh require either no intervention or low effort hydrologic intervention presently, whereas if no action is taken, over 700 km 2 will require high effort intervention by 2070. This synthesis of research models with management-focused decision models demonstrates a tangible advance in bridging the gap between process-based research and restoration needs.

Maryland, Virginia↗

USGS2025

Breeder turnover creates allelic variation in groups of gray wolves

Genetic diversity is an important driver affecting the health of wildlife populations. In cooperatively breeding species, human impacts and breeder turnover can affect genetic diversity in groups. We generally do not have strong inferences about how the genetic composition of a group changes through time as individuals are lost (e.g., die, emigrate) or adopted (e.g., immigrate). I wanted to know how breeder turnover, group size, and harvest affected the fluctuation of unique alleles in groups of gray wolves ( Canis lupus ) in Idaho, USA, during 2008–2020. Turnover of breeding males was strongly associated with allelic change in groups. Turnover of breeding females also had a strong association with allelic change in groups, but was not the most supported model. Harvest was strongly correlated with breeding female turnover but not breeding male turnover. Outside of breeding female turnover, harvest generally had little effect on allelic change in groups. Groups rarely adopted new individuals unless there was a breeding vacancy. I show that over time groups gain and lose alleles in roughly equal proportions, but there are episodic changes to alleles in groups as a function of breeding male turnover. These findings have implications for how we define and evaluate group persistence and breeder lineages in cooperative breeders. Such definitions have important implications for studying the evolution and maintenance of cooperative breeding. It may be beneficial to define characteristics and vital rates of groups based, at least in part, on their underlying genetics when such information can be obtained.

Idaho↗

USGS2025

Accounting for seasonal patterns in bird availability prevents biased population trend estimates with advancing spring phenology

Advancing spring phenology has been observed around the world, including changes in the timing of breeding of birds. When singing rates are tied to breeding stage, the rate at which birds are available for detection by surveyors can also show seasonal patterns that may shift with spring phenology. As the timing of peak bird availability changes over years, monitoring programs that do not account for changing availability could incorrectly conclude that there is a change in population size. We used a 20-yr point-count dataset to test for relationships between bird availability and spring vegetation phenology for 27 species in boreal Alaska. Nine of 22 migratory species showed a significant effect of day of spring (DOS) on availability, usually with availability declining over the survey window (late spring and early summer). In contrast, 3 of 5 resident species showed availability increasing over the survey window. We then conducted a simulation study to evaluate how changing spring phenology could affect estimates of population trend under a static survey window. We found that including DOS in the model as a covariate of availability prevented bias in the trend estimates and did not reduce precision. However, when the model ignored the effect of DOS on availability, population trend estimates were often significantly biased when spring phenology was advancing. Our study adds to previous evidence that bird availability is often related to spring phenology, and demonstrates that failing to account for seasonal changes in availability could result in the spurious estimation of a population trend when spring phenology changes over time. In some cases, the bias could be large enough to change species status assessments under IUCN Red List Criteria. Monitoring programs for birds and other taxa with seasonally varying availability could avoid bias by simply measuring and modeling the relationship between DOS and availability.

Alaska↗

USGS2025

Integrated species distribution model using historical data shows decline in a common semi-aquatic mammal

Effective conservation requires an understanding of drivers of a species' distribution as well as long-term changes in their distribution. In recent decades, advances in data collection and analysis have allowed researchers to integrate a wide range of information to model species distributions, particularly by allowing presence-only data and detection-nondetection data to be formally combined in integrated species distribution models (ISDMs). However, these models are rarely used to investigate long-term trends, which are important in evaluating a species' status. Here, we use historical presence-only data of river otters ( Lontra canadensis ; 366 latrine locations from 1999 to 2007 and 105 locations of road-killed individuals recorded from 1999 to 2020) and 919 detection-nondetection surveys from 230 sites between 2021 and 2023 to understand the current distribution of river otters in Rhode Island, USA, as well as the changes in river otter distribution over the past two decades. We found that river otters were strongly associated with key habitat features such as streams and water, positively associated with urban areas, and tolerant of some contaminants, such as lead. Furthermore, despite uncertainties in historical river otter occurrence, we found clear supporting evidence that river otter intensity of use had declined from 1999 to 2023. This decline occurred despite being protected from harvest and in contrast to range expansions in other parts of the northeastern USA throughout the second half of the 20th century. Our results suggest the utility of this approach to detect declines in species for which historical data are available and a need for better understanding the cause of river otter declines. Where monitoring consists of opportunistically collected data, species conservation could benefit by continuing to collect these data as well as introducing designed surveys, as this would allow better integration of data types, improving trend estimation and reducing the amount of (typically more expensive) designed surveys needed.

Rhode Island↗

USGS2025

Supporting dryland restoration success with applied ecological forecasting of seeding outcomes

Introduction Ecological restoration is increasingly used to sustain biodiversity and ecosystem services. In drylands of the western United States (US), post-disturbance restoration often involves seeding treatments to promote the recovery of native plant communities. Spatial and temporal variability in environmental conditions influences plant establishment and contributes to low restoration success in certain locations and years. Objectives Here, we discuss how forecasts for plant establishment can be developed and delivered to help land managers anticipate the impacts of near-term (months to years) environmental conditions on restoration. Methods We developed an ecological forecast system that predicts the outcome of restoration seeding by integrating weather forecasts, an ecosystem water balance model, and plant establishment models. Results In this article, we focus on a conceptual approach to developing, delivering, and applying ecological forecasts for restoration. We illustrate the potential of this approach by adapting existing ecological models to build an initial version of a decision support tool that delivers a species-specific ecological forecast for big sagebrush ( Artemisia tridentata ) establishment. Integrating ecological forecasts into plans for restoration seeding presents opportunities to anticipate and account for environmental variability. Conclusions Finally, we discuss how connecting research, forecast delivery, and management can maximize the impact of ecological forecasts on restoration success.

Idaho, Nevada↗

USGS2025

Flood-Inundation Maps of the Current and Jacks Fork Rivers including the Ozark National Scenic Riverways, Southeast Missouri, 2023

Digital flood-inundation maps for a 131.8-mile reach of the Current River and a 44.6-mile reach of the Jacks Fork River, in southeast Missouri, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Ozark Foothills Regional Planning Commission and the South Central Ozark Council of Governments. The maps also encompass the 134 miles of the Current and Jacks Fork Rivers within the Ozark National Scenic Riverways, which is the first national park area to protect a river system. The flood-inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Program website at https://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/ , depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (hereafter referred to as “stages”) at eight reference USGS streamgages—five on the Current River (USGS station numbers 07064440, 07064533, 07066510, 07067000, and 07068000) and three on the Jacks Fork River (USGS station numbers 07065200, 07065495, and 07066000). Near-real-time stages at these streamgages may be obtained from the USGS National Water Information System at https://doi.org/10.5066/F7P55KJN or the National Weather Service National Water Prediction Service at http://water.noaa.gov/ , which also forecasts flood hydrographs at four of these sites (USGS station numbers 07067000, 07068000, 07065495, and 07066000). Flood profiles were computed for seven of the eight map reaches by means of two-dimensional hydraulic models and the remaining reach by a one-dimensional hydraulic model. The models were calibrated by using stage-streamflow relations or streamflow measurements at the USGS streamgages and from high-flow stage measurements from water-level loggers distributed throughout the reaches. The hydraulic models were used to compute water-surface profiles for flood stages at 1-foot intervals referenced to the streamgage datums. The profile stages ranged from the National Weather Service “action stage” or near bankfull, to a stage exceeding the highest recorded water level at each streamgage. The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a digital elevation model (derived from light detection and ranging data having a nonvegetated vertical accuracy of a maximum 10-centimeter root mean square error) to delineate the area flooded at each water level and the associated water depths. The availability of these maps, along with information regarding current stage from the USGS streamgage and forecasted high-flow stages from the National Weather Service, will provide emergency management personnel, resource managers, and residents with information that is critical for flood-response activities such as evacuations and road closures, as well as for postflood recovery efforts.

Missouri↗

USGS2025

Flood-inundation maps for Río de la Plata in and near Comerío, Puerto Rico, 2025

Digital flood-inundation maps for a 3.1-mile reach of Río de la Plata in and near Comerío, Puerto Rico, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Water-surface profiles were computed for the stream reach by using a one-dimensional steady-state step-backwater model. The model was calibrated to the current (2025) stage-streamflow relation (rating curve 11.0) for the USGS streamgage 50043800, Río de la Plata at Comerío, Puerto Rico. The resulting hydraulic model was then used to compute 16 water-surface profiles for water levels (flood stages) ranging from 10.00 to 40.00 feet at the streamgage and ranging from “action stage” to above “major flood stage” as reported by the National Weather Service. The 40.00-foot stage was selected because it exceeds the peak stage of 34.86 ft recorded during Hurricane Maria at the USGS streamgage 50043800, Río de Plata at Comerío, Puerto Rico. The simulated water-surface profiles were then used in combination with a digital elevation model derived from light detection and ranging data to map the inundated areas associated with each flood profile. The flood-inundation maps and the supporting hydraulic model produced by this study can be used by emergency managers and local officials to assess flood mitigation strategies and to define flood hazard areas to help protect life and property, to coordinate flood response activities such as evacuations and road closures, and to aid post-flood recovery efforts.

Comerio↗