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Research about San Francisco Bay

Source-linked reports with geographic coverage including San Francisco Bay.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2026

Seasonal and decadal changes in winter body condition of four sympatric diving ducks

Winter body condition is an important driver of survival, reproductive output, and overall population health in waterfowl. Diving duck species use distinct habitats, exploit unique resources, and can collectively provide an integrated index of winter habitat quality. The San Francisco Bay (SFB) is the largest estuary on the west coast of North America, serving as critical wintering habitat for diving ducks in the Pacific Flyway. To evaluate the body condition of diving ducks after multiple decades of tidal habitat restoration in SFB, we compared structurally corrected measurements (annual and decadal) of total carcass lipid among canvasback ( Aythya valisineria ), greater scaup ( Aythya marila ), lesser scaup ( Aythya affinis ), and ruddy duck ( Oxyura jamaicensis ). We found greater and lesser scaup gained lipid reserves within the estuary prior to spring migration; however, canvasback and ruddy duck lipid levels declined throughout the winter and into the spring. Lipid loss over the wintering period could indicate a reduction in foraging resource availability, dietary shifts, or metabolic changes. These deficiencies could have negative cross-seasonal implications, as these species must accumulate resources outside of their wintering areas to fuel migration and reproduction. Lipid levels were elevated in lesser scaup collected in 2017-2019 compared to 1998-2000, while we found no decadal differences in lipid levels for canvasback or greater scaup. Our findings suggest tidal restoration in SFB, among other factors, may benefit some diving duck species.

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USGS2026

Revisiting chlorophyll a thresholds for San Francisco Bay: Insights from observations of phytoplankton molecular abundance

Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) are a hazard for coastal environments worldwide; identifying screening thresholds of chlorophyll- a (chl- a) associated with increased risk of HABs is a management priority. Molecular surveillance of coastal phytoplankton and bivalve biotoxins could be used to link chl- a with HAB risk, but requires an understanding of whether the HAB risks increase uniformly as chl-a rises, or whether some taxa are disproportionately favored, and if these relationships vary by season. In this study, we present a novel use of molecular abundance data to investigate the scientific bases for estuarine chl- a thresholds protective against HABs. In San Francisco Bay (SFB), California, the relationship between molecular relative abundance (as measured by 18S metabarcoding) of nine different HAB taxa, absolute quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) abundance, and mussel toxin concentrations of a subset of the taxa were investigated for thresholds as a function of increasing chl- a . Our results show most HAB taxa did not increase in absolute or relative abundance during SFB’s spring bloom interval, when chl- a levels were highest (>10 µg/L) but the assemblage was dominated by non-harmful diatoms. However, several flagellated, mixotrophic taxa did increase above their molecular baseline in fall, and the combined probability of any HAB occurring above baseline was elevated when chl- a reached ∼4.6 µg/L in the fall. This work demonstrates the promise of molecular approaches in disentangling the seasonally complex interplay between stressors and phytoplankton/HAB community responses and has the potential to provide clearer, more cost-effective monitoring and mitigation strategies for managers.

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USGS2025

Assessing environmental drivers and protist community dynamics that shaped the historic August 2022 Heterosigma akashiwo bloom in San Francisco Bay, California

San Francisco Bay, California, typically has chlorophyll a (chl- a ) concentrations below 10 µg L −1 , despite nutrient loadings exceeding those in many estuaries with recurring harmful algal blooms (HABs). However, in August 2022 there was a Heterosigma akashiwo (raphidophyte) bloom with chl- a concentrations exceeding 450 µg L −1 , resulting in widespread hypoxia and fish die-off. We used protist community (18S ribosomal ribonucleic acid gene metabarcoding) and environmental data collected 2–3 times per month from 2015–2023 to assess differences between 2022 and other years, and capture dynamics pre-, during, and post-bloom. The 2022 protist community clustered separately from other years in non-metric multidimensional scaling and hierarchical cluster analyses. A diatom bloom in June generated the highest median June chl- a concentration (15 µg L −1 ) recorded between 1977–2023 and drew down nutrients (nitrogen, silicate), leading to the establishment of a heterotrophic community in July with low dinoflagellate abundance (0.9% of protists versus 5.9% average in other years). The absence of dinoflagellates, potentially including H. akashiwo predators , plus suitable habitat (13–14 daylight hours, temperatures 17–21˚C, nitrate concentrations 17–24 µmol L −1 , neap tides) likely provided opportunity for H. akashiwo to proliferate from 0.03% to 48% of protists between July 20 and August 25. As the bloom collapsed, the genus Gyrodinium (dinoflagellate predator of H. akashiwo ) increased from 3.0% to 52% of protists between August 25 and August 31, likely exerting grazing pressure. Results show that antecedent protist community dynamics play important roles in shaping HABs, and interactions between biotic and abiotic factors govern the development of blooms.

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USGS2025

Contributions of erosion, deposition, and human activities to a change in sand storage in the bed of San Francisco Bay, California, 1980s to 2010s

This study by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) provides estimates of the change in sand storage in bed sediments from the 1980s to 2010s in the San Francisco Bay area, California. The study is part of a larger project called “Research to Understand Impacts of Bay Sand Mining on Sand Transport in San Francisco Bay and the Outer Coast” that has the goal of providing information for the California Coastal Conservancy to inform decision making regarding sand mining activities. Information from this study will contribute to the sand budget for the San Francisco Bay system by accounting for sand made available by erosion of bay sediment and sequestered by deposition in the bay. Sediment budgets for estuaries typically account for change in sediment storage in the bed without discriminating for sediment size. However, the physics of mud and sand erosion, deposition, and transport differ. Sediment budgets that treat mud and sand separately give a more complete understanding of the system, including how human activities related to sediment size, such as sand mining, affect the system. We used bathymetric change analysis in combination with a three-dimensional model to generate estimates of net change in sand storage within the San Francisco Bay floor. We document sediment volume change from a 1980s bathymetric surface to a 2010s bathymetric surface, in combination with information on the sand content of the bed sediment derived from sediment cores and surface samples from six different sediment studies, to estimate the net change in sand volume in the bed of San Francisco Bay. This analysis includes areas heavily affected by human activities (such as sand mining, dredging, and sediment disposal) as well as regions more representative of natural transport processes. Overall, the sediment bed of San Francisco Bay is losing sand. Across the total area surveyed in San Francisco Bay, including areas affected by natural processes, oyster shell beds, and human activities, a net loss of about 17 million cubic meters (Mm 3 ) of sand from the sediment bed occurred from the 1980s to 2010s, at a rate of about 0.8 Mm 3 per year. For the period of this study, sand loss from bed level changes in permitted sand-lease mining areas (about 11 Mm 3 ) accounts for about two-thirds of the total sand loss throughout the study area. It is important to consider potential uncertainty bounds when interpreting these findings. A key part of the report is an assessment of the uncertainties in our estimates of sand volumes. We estimate that variability in modeled sand content values of Bay floor sediments could result in an uncertainty of approximately 25 percent of the net sand volume change. Even larger uncertainty amounts may be associated with uncertainty in the systematic errors in the bathymetric surveys. Further refining estimates of uncertainty in bathymetric change is important in guiding the use of this study. The results presented here can fill a critical gap that may enable the creation of the first comprehensive sand budget of San Francisco Bay.

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USGS2025

Nature-based solutions extend the lifespan of a regional levee system under climate change

Nature-based solutions are receiving increasing attention as a cost-effective climate adaptation strategy. Horizontal levees are nature-based adaptation solutions that include a sloping wetland habitat buffer fronting a levee. They can offer a hybrid solution to reinforce traditional levees in estuarine areas—plants on the horizontal levee can provide wave attenuation benefits as well as habitat benefits, but how the design of horizontal levees influences risk of levee failure remains unquantified. We use a hydrodynamic model, XBeach non-hydrostatic (XB-NH), to assess the stability and sustainability of existing levees and determine how hybrid nature-based climate adaptation measures can reduce the risk of overtopping on levees in San Francisco Bay. We compare overtopping rates in the existing levee system and in a variety of nature-based adaptation scenarios using a range of widths and slopes of horizontal levees to assess how horizontal levees perform in reducing risk of flooding, both with present day conditions and sea level rise. We show that climate change will challenge existing levee flood defenses in San Francisco Bay and increase the risk of overtopping, and that the nature-based solution of horizontal levees can meaningfully reduce risk of overtopping while simultaneously supporting marsh habitat. Flood risk reduction and habitat provision are both maximized with more gradually sloping and wider horizontal levee designs. Results show that the risk of overtopping can be reduced by up to 30% with horizontal levees. This analysis provides insight into horizontal levee design considerations and a methodological approach to adapt levees to prepare for climate change in urban wave-exposed estuaries. We show that horizontal levees can support preparation for the projected impacts of sea level rise (SLR) while simultaneously providing new intertidal wetland habitat.

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USGS2025

Mitigating flood risks in urban estuaries: Tidal dynamics, shoreline hardening, nature-based solutions, and floodgates in San Francisco Bay

Hydrodynamic models are valuable tools for understanding the primary factors influencing daily and peak water levels and for guiding discussions on potential adaptation strategies for managing flood risk in coastal areas. This analysis uses the Delft3D San Francisco Bay-Delta Community Model to simulate water levels and incorporates the effects of a number of adaptation measures in the urban San Francisco Bay estuary, California. In particular, we examine the influence of shoreline hardening, nature-based solutions, and subregional floodgates on regional water levels. The result shows that under present conditions, tidal amplification is responsible for generating a wide distribution of extreme water levels across San Francisco Bay. Tidal amplification is found to decrease under sea level rise, thereby producing a relative damping effect on extremes. A comparison of different shoreline scenarios demonstrates that hard frontal shorelines result in higher tidal amplification, whereas restored (soft) shorelines lower amplification. The current shoreline configuration has both hard and soft characteristics and results in an intermediate tidal response. In some areas, wetland restoration reduces extreme water levels by as much as 20 cm, whereas hard-shoreline addition elevates them by as much as 10 cm for 1.5 m of sea level rise. Furthermore, local floodgates can significantly reduce high water levels without major adverse effects elsewhere in San Francisco Bay. These findings point toward the justification for a range of adaptive measures across political boundaries, weighing hard and soft options in addressing the mounting danger of sea level rise.

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USGS2024

A comparison of eDNA sampling methods in an estuarine environment on presence of longfin smelt (Spirinchus thaleichthys) and fish community composition

The loss of tidal wetlands in the San Francisco Bay estuary have led to declines in native fish presence. Restoration of tidal wetlands in this area has intensified, with a primary goal of increasing the number of native fishes. We compared the presence of longfin smelt in naturally accreted and beneficial dredge reuse wetlands as a measure of successful restoration. We used environmental DNA (eDNA) analyses as our metric for fish presence and fish community composition, employing two different water sampling methods for comparison (standard and high-volume). Longfin smelt were present in multiple sites, but at numbers too low for accurate comparisons across sites. Community composition varied based on the water sampling method, but the presence/absence of longfin smelt was consistent across sampling methods. As this represents a pilot study, further refinement of methodology is necessary, but the use of high-volume water sampling methods is promising.

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USGS2024

Evaluation and refinement of chlorophyll-a algorithms for high-biomass blooms in San Francisco Bay (USA)

A massive bloom of the raphidophyte Heterosigma akashiwo occurred in summer 2022 in San Francisco Bay, causing widespread ecological impacts including events of low dissolved oxygen and mass fish kills. The rapidly evolving bloom required equally rapid management response, leading to the use of near-real-time image analysis of chlorophyll from the Ocean and Land Colour Instrument (OLCI) aboard Sentinel-3. Standard algorithms failed to adequately capture the bloom, signifying a need to refine a two-band algorithm developed for coastal and inland waters that relates the red-edge part of the remote sensing reflectance spectrum to chlorophyll. While the bloom was the initial motivation for optimizing this algorithm, an extensive dataset of in-water validation measurements from both bloom and non-bloom periods was used to evaluate performance over a range of concentrations and community composition. The modified red-edge algorithm with a simplified atmospheric correction scheme outperformed existing standard products across diverse conditions, and given the modest computational requirements, was found suitable for operational use and near-real-time product generation. The final version of the algorithm successfully minimizes error for non-bloom periods when chlorophyll a is typically <30 mg m −3 , while also capturing bloom periods of >100 mg m −3 chlorophyll a .

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USGS2024

Upper crustal seismic velocity structure of the Hayward fault zone, San Francisco Bay, California, USA: Results from the 2016 East Bay Seismic Experiment (EBSI-16)

We developed Vp, Vs, Vp / Vs ratio, and Poisson’s ratio models of the uppermost crust (<4 km depth) from the eastern San Francisco (SF) Bay (California, USA) to near the Calaveras fault along a 15-km-long, linear profile. Upper crustal velocities are highly variable beneath, west, and well east of the Hayward fault. We observe eight notable features, from west to east: (1) Near San Francisco Bay, there is an ~2-km-wide structure with high Vp / Vs ratios (up to 5) and Poisson’s ratios (up to 0.48) extending from the surface to the base of our model, which we suggest the structure is a near-vertical fault that lies along a straight-line projection between the Silver Creek fault to the south and the Point Richmond fault to the north. The structure may be part of an ~90-km-long fault along the eastern SF Bay. (2) The western East Bay Plain, the lower lying area between the bay and the hills, includes up to 800 m of low-velocity sediments ( Vp ~1600–3000 m/s, Vs ~500 m/s to ~1000 m/s), underlain by higher velocity basement rocks ( Vp ~3000–5800 m/s; Vs ~1000–1500 m/s). (3) Between ~1 km and 3 km east of the Bay shoreline, sediments thin in a series of steps (likely faults) toward the Hayward fault. (4) Between ~3 km west and ~1 km east of the Hayward fault (at the East Chabot fault) at depths greater than 1 km, basement Vp (up to 6000 m/s) and Vs (up to 2800 m/s) are high, and Vp / Vs ratios (<2) and Poisson’s ratios (<0.3) are low, suggesting crystalline rocks. Furthermore, a near-vertical zone of low Vp / Vs ratios and Poisson’s ratios is between near-surface traces of the Hayward and East Chabot faults, likely corresponding to the San Leandro Gabbro of Ponce et al. (2003) . (5) Eastward of the East Chabot fault in the upper 1.5 km, basement Vp (~3000 m/s to ~4200 m/s) and Vs (~1200–2000 m/s) are lower than those west of the fault. (6) In the eastern Hayward/Oakland Hills, there are zones of laterally varying, high- and low-velocity ( Vp ~2500–3000 m/s) Jurassic–Cretaceous and Tertiary sediments in the shallow subsurface that likely extend much deeper than imaged. (7) Seismic energy that propagates westward from sources east of the Hayward fault (HF) appear weaker than energy that propagates eastward from sources west of the HF, suggesting that the HF acts as a partial barrier to shallow seismic energy propagation into the more populated eastern SF Bay area. (8) Unlike many fault zones, it appears that the active trace of the Hayward fault (in our study area) is not cored by a prominent, low-velocity zone relative to rocks to the east and west of the active trace. However, the active trace does mark a prominent change from relatively higher velocities to the west and lower velocities to the east.

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USGS2022

Continuous water-quality and suspended-sediment transport monitoring in San Francisco Bay, California, water years 2020–21

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has continuously monitored real-time water quality and suspended-sediment transport in San Francisco Bay (the Bay) since 1989 as part of a multi-agency effort (see “Acknowledgments” section) to address estuary management, water supply, and ecological concerns. The San Francisco Bay area is home to millions of people and biologically diverse marine and terrestrial flora and fauna. Freshwater mixes with saltwater in the Bay and is subject to riverine influences (floods, droughts, managed reservoir releases, and freshwater diversions) and marine influences (tides, waves, and effects of saltwater). Water temperature, salinity, suspended-sediment concentration (SSC), and turbidity, are used by State and Federal resources managers and are monitored at eight key locations throughout the Bay (fig. 1). Water temperature and salinity affect the density of water, which controls gravity-driven circulation patterns and stratification in the water column. Salinity indicates the relative mixing of fresh and ocean waters in the Bay and is derived from specific conductance measurements. Turbidity is a measure of light scattered from suspended particles in the water that is used to estimate suspended-sediment concentration. Suspended-sediment concentrations also are directly measured through depth-integrated water sampling. Suspended sediment affects Bay water quality in multiple ways. Suspended sediment affects phytoplankton growth by attenuating sunlight in the water column. Suspended sediment deposition on tidal marshes and intertidal mudflats helps to restore and sustain these habitats as sea level rises. Settling of suspended sediment in ports and shipping channels creates the need for more dredging. In addition, suspended sediment often carries adsorbed contaminants as it is transported in the water column, which affects the distributions and concentrations of adsorbed contaminants in the environment. Excessive concentrations of sediment-adsorbed contaminants in deposits on the bottom of the Bay can affect ecosystem health. External factors, such as tidal currents, waves, and wind can also affect water quality in the Bay. Tidal currents in the Bay change direction four times daily, and wind direction and intensity typically fluctuate on a daily cycle. Consequently, salinity, water temperature, and suspended-sediment concentration differ spatially and temporally throughout the Bay. Therefore, high-frequency measurements at multiple locations are needed to monitor these changes. Data collected at eight stations throughout the Bay are transmitted in near real-time using cellular telemetry and posted to the USGS National Water Information System (NWIS; https://waterdata.usgs.gov/usa/nwis ). The purposes of this fact sheet are to (1) provide information about the USGS San Francisco Bay water-quality monitoring network; (2) highlight various applications in which these data can be used; and (3) provide internet links to access the resulting continuous water-quality data collected by the USGS.

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USGS2022

Reference values and comparison of blood chemistry and plasma protein values between gold standard analyzers and four point-of-care devices in free-ranging canvasbacks (Aythya valisineria)

Accurate, timely, and cost-effective blood chemistry analysis is an essential tool for directing emergency treatment, monitoring the health status of captive and free-ranging individuals and flocks, and improving the efficacy of conservation actions. Blood samples were obtained from 52 canvasbacks ( Aythya valisineria ) that were captured on San Francisco Bay, California, during December 2017 as part of a long-term study. Reference values and clinical agreement were determined for blood chemistry and plasma protein parameters among four commonly used point-of-care devices (VetScan ® VS2, i-STAT ® , AlphaTRAK ® 2 glucometer, refractometer) and two gold standard laboratory analyzers (Roche cobas ® c501, Helena SPIFE 3000 system). Canvasback reference values were generally within expected ranges for Anatidae species with the exception of higher upper limits for sodium and chloride. Creatine kinase and aspartate transaminase values exceeded a published threshold for diagnosis of capture myopathy even though study birds were captured using low-stress techniques and successfully released. With the exception of higher alkaline phosphatase in hatch-year canvasbacks, no age or sex differences were observed for any analyte in this population that was captured during a nonbreeding period. Analysis of analyzer agreement found raw VetScan aspartate transaminase, calcium, glucose, and uric acid values; corrected VetScan albumin, potassium, sodium, and total protein values; raw i-STAT glucose and potassium values; and corrected i-STAT sodium and chloride values were clinically interchangeable with Roche cobas values. Raw VetScan and i-STAT glucose values were also interchangeable. However, none of the Roche or point-of-care analyzer plasma protein values were in clinical agreement with gold standard electrophoresis values. The findings of this study highlight the need for analyzer- or technique-specific reference values and provide biologists and veterinarians quantitative reference values using currently available analyzers to better assess and respond to the health of individuals and populations.

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USGS2021

The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Societal Consequences

The HayWired earthquake scenario, led by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), anticipates the impacts of a hypothetical moment magnitude 7.0 earthquake on the Hayward Fault. The fault runs along the east side of California’s San Francisco Bay and is among the most active and dangerous in the United States, passing through a densely urbanized and interconnected region. A scientifically realistic scenario is one way to learn from a large earthquake before one occurs in the bay region. The USGS and its partners in the HayWired Coalition are working to energize residents and businesses to engage in new and ongoing efforts to prepare the region for such a future earthquake.

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USGS2021

Incorporation of uncertainty to improve projections of tidal wetland elevation and carbon accumulation with sea-level rise

Understanding the rates and patterns of tidal wetland elevation changes relative to sea-level is essential for understanding the extent of potential wetland loss over the coming years. Using an enhanced and more flexible modeling framework of an ecosystem model (WARMER-2), we explored sea-level rise (SLR) impacts on wetland elevations and carbon sequestration rates through 2100 by considering plant community transitions, salinity effects on productivity, and changes in sediment availability. We incorporated local experimental results for plant productivity relative to inundation and salinity into a species transition model, as well as site-level estimates of organic matter decomposition. The revised modeling framework includes an improved calibration scheme that more accurately reconstructs soil profiles and incorporates parameter uncertainty through Monte Carlo simulations. Using WARMER-2, we evaluated elevation change in three tidal wetlands in the San Francisco Bay Estuary, CA, USA along an estuarine tidal and salinity gradient with varying scenarios of SLR, salinization, and changes in sediment availability. We also tested the sensitivity of marsh elevation and carbon accumulation rates to different plant productivity functions. Wetland elevation at all three sites was sensitive to changes in sediment availability, but sites with greater initial elevations or space for upland transgression persisted longer under higher SLR rates than sites at lower elevations. Using a multi-species wetland vegetation transition model for organic matter contribution to accretion, WARMER-2 projected increased elevations relative to sea levels (resilience) and higher rates of carbon accumulation when compared with projections assuming no future change in vegetation with SLR. A threshold analysis revealed that all three wetland sites were likely to eventually transition to an unvegetated state with SLR rates above 7 mm/yr. Our results show the utility in incorporating additional estuary-specific parameters to bolster confidence in model projections. The new WARMER-2 modeling framework is widely applicable to other tidal wetland ecosystems and can assist in teasing apart important drivers of wetland elevation change under SLR.

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USGS2021

Continuous water-quality and suspended-sediment transport monitoring in the San Francisco Bay, California, water years 2018–19

Water-Quality in San Francisco Bay The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) monitors water quality and suspended-sediment transport in the San Francisco Bay (Bay) as part of a multi-agency effort to address estuary management, water supply, and ecological concerns. The San Francisco Bay area is home to millions of people, and the Bay teems with marine and terrestrial flora and fauna. Freshwater mixes with saltwater in the Bay and is subject to riverine influences (floods, droughts, managed reservoir releases, and freshwater diversions) and marine influences (tides, waves, and effects of saltwater). To understand this environment, the USGS, along with its cooperators (see “Acknowledgments” section), has been monitoring the Bay’s waters continuously since 1988.

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USGS2021

If you give a clam an estuary: The story of potamocorbula

When you look at San Francisco Bay, what animals do you see? You may see lots of fish swimming around and birds flying above. What you DON’T see is Potamocorbula, a little clam that has had a big impact. Many years ago, ships accidentally brought Potamocorbula into the Bay. Pretty soon, Potamocorbula spread out all over in large numbers! Clams pump water over their gills and eat small particles of food, like phytoplankton, that pass through with the water. Potamocorbula can pump water much faster than other clams that live in the Bay, and they can eat more than their share of phytoplankton. Sometimes Potamocorbula eats phytoplankton faster than phytoplankton can grow! What problems does that cause for other animals, like birds and fish, that also need phytoplankton? Does Potamocorbula’s invasion only have negative impacts? In this article, we dive to the bottom of the Bay to find some answers. Book series publishing the chapter: https://kids.frontiersin.org/collection/13528/where-the-river-meets-the-ocean-stories-from-san-francisco-estuary

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USGS2021

Assessment of a claimed ultra-low frequency electromagnetic (ULFEM) earthquake precursor

The rate of occurrence of anomalous ultra-low frequency electromagnetic (ULFEM) pulses has been claimed to have increased days to weeks prior to the M5.4 2007 and M4.0 2010 Alum Rock earthquakes. We re-examine the previously reported ultra-low frequency (ULF: 0.01–10 Hz) magnetic data recorded at a QuakeFinder site located 9 km from the earthquake hypocentre, and compare to data from a nearby Stanford-USGS site located 42 km from the hypocentre, to analyse the characteristics of the pulses and assess their origin. Using pulse definitions and pulse-counting algorithms analogous to those previously reported, we corroborate the increase in pulse counts before the 2007 Alum Rock earthquake at the QuakeFinder station, but we note that the number of pulses depends on chosen temporal and amplitude detection thresholds. These thresholds are arbitrary because we lack a clear physical model or basis for their selection. We do not see the same increase in pulse counts before the 2010 Alum Rock earthquake at the QuakeFinder or Stanford-USGS stations. In addition, the majority of pulses in the QuakeFinder data and Stanford-USGS data do not match temporally, indicating the pulses lack a common origin and are not from lightning or solar-driven ionospheric/magnetospheric disturbances. Our assessment of the temporal distribution of pulse counts shows pulse counts increase during peak human activity hours, suggesting these pulses result from local cultural noise and are not tectonic in origin. The many unknowns about the character and even existence of precursory earthquake pulses means that standard numerical and statistical tests cannot easily be applied. Yet here we show that exhaustive investigation of many different aspects of ULFEM signals can be used to properly characterize their origin.

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USGS2021

Drivers of extreme water levels in a large, urban, high-energy coastal estuary – A case study of the San Francisco Bay

Reliable and long-term hindcast data of water levels are essential in quantifying return period and values of extreme water levels. In order to inform design decisions on a local flood control district level, process-based numerical modeling has proven an essential tool to provide the needed temporal and spatial coverage for different extreme value analysis methods. To determine the importance of different physical processes to the extreme water levels we developed a process-based numerical model (Delft3D Flexible Mesh) and applied it to simulate a large, urban, high-energy coastal estuary (the San Francisco Bay). The unstructured grid with 1D/2DH model elements, allows for efficient model simulations and therefore it was possible to simulate over 70 years between 1950 and 2019. Results show significant skill in reproducing observations for the entire modeled time period with an average root-mean-square error of 8.0 cm. A process-based modeling approach allows for the explicit in- and exclusion of different physical processes to quantify their importance to the extremes. For the 100-year still water level (SWL), tide (70%) and non-tidal residual (NTR) (25%) explain the majority of the simulated high water levels in the Bay relative to Mean Higher High Water (MHHW). However, closer to the Delta, local fluvial inflow increases in importance. For longer return periods, the importance of tide decreases and the importance of remote NTRs and fluvial inflow increases.

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