Geology topics

Research about San Andreas fault

Source-linked reports with geographic coverage including San Andreas fault.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2023

The Mojave section of the San Andreas fault (California), 1: Shaping the terrace stratigraphy of Littlerock Creek through the competition between rapid strike-slip faulting and lateral stream erosion over the last 40ka.

To determine the post-40 ka slip-rate along the Mojave section of the San Andreas Fault (MSAF) we re-analyze the sedimentary record preserved where Little Rock (LR) Creek flows across the fault. At this location, interaction between the northeast-flowing stream and right-lateral fault has resulted in the abandonment and preservation of 11 strath terraces and one paleo-floodplain in the downstream trailing corner of the river, two of which are also preserved upstream to provide cross-fault matches. A new model of fault-induced river deflection, together with standard terrace riser restoration, yields strike-slip displacements of 1,140 ± 160 m for the older terrace and 360 ± 70 m for the younger one. When combined with new 10 Be dating and reinterpretation of prior measurements the displaced terraces yield right-lateral slip-rates of 27.7 +6.9/−3.5 and 26.8 +3.4/−3.0 mm/yr over the last 23 k.y. and last 40 k.y., where uncertainties are at 95% credible intervals. These new rate determinations are consistent with independent late Holocene estimates, indicating that the long-term rate of strain accumulation along the MSAF is relatively fast and does not vary significantly when averaged over timescales of 15–20 k.y. Using our new model of stream deflection, we find that the fluvial sequence was emplaced in two distinct periods, each characterized by a temporally stable but markedly different deflected river geometry. Each period coincides with a distinct stage of erosive power along LR Creek determined from independent paleoclimate proxies. Importantly, application of the new river-deflection model allows strike-slip displacements to be determined in the absence of upstream piercing points.

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USGS2021

A revised position for the primary strand of the Pleistocene-Holocene San Andreas fault in southern California

The San Andreas fault has the highest calculated time-dependent probability for large-magnitude earthquakes in southern California. However, where the fault is multistranded east of the Los Angeles metropolitan area, it has been uncertain which strand has the fastest slip rate and, therefore, which has the highest probability of a destructive earthquake. Reconstruction of offset Pleistocene-Holocene landforms dated using the uranium-thorium soil carbonate and beryllium-10 surface exposure techniques indicates slip rates of 24.1 ± 3 millimeter per year for the San Andreas fault, with 21.6 ± 2 and 2.5 ± 1 millimeters per year for the Mission Creek and Banning strands, respectively. These data establish the Mission Creek strand as the primary fault bounding the Pacific and North American plates at this latitude and imply that 6 to 9 meters of elastic strain has accumulated along the fault since the most recent surface-rupturing earthquake, highlighting the potential for large earthquakes along this strand.

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USGS2020

San Andreas fault exploration using refraction tomography and S-wave-type and Fϕ-mode guided waves

Surface ruptures from the 18 April 1906 M∼7.9 San Francisco earthquake were distributed over an ∼35 ‐meter‐wide zone at San Andreas Lake on the San Francisco Peninsula in California ( Schussler, 1906 ). Since ∼1906⁠ , the surface ruptures have been largely covered by water, but with water levels at near‐historic low levels in 2008–2011, we observed that the 1906 surface ruptures were no longer visible. As a fault imaging test, we acquired refraction tomography and guided‐wave data across the 1906 surface ruptures in 2011. We found that individual fault traces, as mapped by Schussler (1906) , can be identified on the basis of discrete low‐velocity zones ( ⁠V S and V P⁠ , reduced ∼40% and ∼34%⁠ , respectively) and high‐amplitude guided waves. Guided waves have traditionally been observed as large‐amplitude waveforms over wide (hundreds of meters to kilometers) zones of faulting, but we demonstrate that by evaluating guided waves (including Rayleigh/Love‐ and P / SV ‐types) in terms of peak ground velocity (PGV), individual near‐surface fault traces within a fault zone can be precisely located, even more than 100 yr after the surface ruptures. Such precise exploration can be used to focus paleoseismic trenching efforts and to identify or exclude faulting at specific sites. We evaluated PGV of both S ‐wave‐type and Fϕ ‐mode‐type guided waves and found that both wave types can be used to identify subsurface fault traces. At San Andreas Lake (main fault), S ‐wave‐type guided waves travel up to 18% slower than S body waves, and Fϕ ‐mode guided waves travel ∼60% slower than P body waves but ∼15% faster than S body waves. We found that guided‐wave amplitudes vary with frequency but are up to five times higher than those of body waves, including the S wave. Our data are consistent with the concept that guided waves can be a strong‐shaking hazard during large‐magnitude earthquakes.

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USGS2017

Geomorphology, denudation rates, and stream channel profiles reveal patterns of mountain building adjacent to the San Andreas fault in northern California, USA

Relative horizontal motion along strike-slip faults can build mountains when motion is oblique to the trend of the strike-slip boundary. The resulting contraction and uplift pose off-fault seismic hazards, which are often difficult to detect because of the poor vertical resolution of satellite geodesy and difficulty of locating offset datable landforms in active mountain ranges. Sparse geomorphic markers, topographic analyses, and measurement of denudation allow us to map spatiotemporal patterns of uplift along the northern San Andreas fault. Between Jenner and Mendocino, California, emergent marine terraces found southwest of the San Andreas fault record late Pleistocene uplift rates between 0.20 and 0.45 mm yr –1 along much of the coast. However, on the northeast side of the San Andreas fault, a zone of rapid uplift (0.6–1.0 mm yr –1 ) exists adjacent to the San Andreas fault, but rates decay northeastward as the coast becomes more distant from the San Andreas fault. A newly dated 4.5 Ma shallow-marine deposit located at ∼500 m above sea level (masl) adjacent to the San Andreas fault is warped down to just 150 masl 15 km northeast of the San Andreas fault, and it is exposed at just 60–110 masl to the west of the fault. Landscape denudation rates calculated from abundance of cosmogenic radionuclides in fluvial sediment northeast of, and adjacent to, the San Andreas fault are 0.16–0.29 mm yr –1 , but they are only 0.03–0.07 mm yr –1 west of the fault. Basin-average channel steepness and the denudation rates can be used to infer the erosive properties of the underlying bedrock. Calibrated erosion rates can then be estimated across the entire landscape using the spatial distribution of channel steepness with these erosive properties. The lower-elevation areas of this landscape that show high channel steepness (and hence calibrated erosion rate) are distinct from higher-elevation areas with systematically lower channel steepness and denudation rates. These two areas do not appear to be coincident with lithologic contacts. Assuming that changes in rock uplift rates are manifest in channel steepness values as an upstream-propagating kinematic wave that separates high and low channel steepness values, the distance that this transition has migrated vertically provides an estimate of the timing of rock uplift rate increase. This analysis suggests that rock uplift rates along the coast changed from 0.3 to 0.75 mm yr –1 between 450 and 350 ka. This zone of recent, relatively rapid crustal deformation along the plate boundary may be a result of the impingement of relatively strong crust underlying the Gualala block into the thinner, weaker oceanic crust left at the western margin of the North American plate by the westward migration of the subduction zone prior to establishment of the current transform plate boundary. The warped Pliocene marine deposits and the presence of a topographic ridge support the patterns indicated by the channel steepness analyses, and further indicate that the zone of rapid uplift may herald elevated off-fault seismic hazard if this uplift is created by periodic stick-slip motion on contractional structures.

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USGS2016

Earthquake geology and paleoseismology of major strands of the San Andreas fault system

The San Andreas fault system in California is one of the best-studied faults in the world, both in terms of the long-term geologic history and paleoseismic study of past surface ruptures. In this paper, we focus on the Quaternary to historic data that have been collected from the major strands of the San Andreas fault system, both on the San Andreas Fault itself, and the major subparallel strands that comprise the plate boundary, including the Calaveras-Hayward- Rogers Creek-Maacama fault zone and the Concord-Green Valley-Bartlett Springs fault zone in northern California, and the San Jacinto and Elsinore faults in southern California. The majority of the relative motion between the Pacific and North American lithospheric plates is accommodated by these faults, with the San Andreas slipping at about 34 mm/yr in central California, decreasing to about 20 mm/yr in northern California north of its juncture with the Calaveras and Concord faults. The Calaveras-Hayward-Rogers Creek-Maacama fault zone exhibits a slip rate of 10-15 mm/yr, whereas the rate along the Concord-Green Valley-Bartlett Springs fault zone is lower at about 5 mm/yr. In southern California, the San Andreas exhibits a slip rate of about 35 mm/yr along the Mojave section, decreasing to as low as 10-15 mm/yr along its juncture with the San Jacinto fault, and about 20 mm/yr in the Coachella Valley. The San Jacinto and Elsinore fault zones exhibit rates of about 15 and 5 mm/yr, respectively. The average recurrence interval for surface-rupturing earthquakes along individual elements of the San Andreas fault system range from 100-500 years and is consistent with slip rate at those sites: higher slip rates produce more frequent or larger earthquakes. There is also evidence of short-term variations in strain release (slip rate) along various fault sections, as expressed as “flurries” or clusters of earthquakes as well as periods of relatively fewer surface ruptures in these relatively short records. This is reflected by non-periodic coefficients of variation in earthquake recurrence of 0.4 to 0.7 for the various paleoseismic sites.

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USGS2013

Inferring fault rheology from low-frequency earthquakes on the San Andreas

Families of recurring low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs) within nonvolcanic tremor (NVT) on the San Andreas fault in central California show strong sensitivity to shear stress induced by the daily tidal cycle. LFEs occur at all levels of the tidal shear stress and are in phase with the very small, ~400 Pa, stress amplitude. To quantitatively explain the correlation, we use a model from the existing literature that assumes the LFE sources are small, persistent regions that repeatedly fail during shear of a much larger scale, otherwise aseismically creeping fault zone. The LFE source patches see tectonic loading, creep of the surrounding fault which may be modulated by the tidal stress, and direct tidal loading. If the patches are small relative to the surrounding creeping fault then the stressing is dominated by fault creep, and if patch failure occurs at a threshold stress, then the resulting seismicity rate is proportional to the fault creep rate or fault zone strain rate. Using the seismicity rate as a proxy for strain rate and the tidal shear stress, we fit the data with possible fault rheologies that produce creep in laboratory experiments at temperatures of 400 to 600°C appropriate for the LFE source depth. The rheological properties of rock-forming minerals for dislocation creep and dislocation glide are not consistent with the observed fault creep because strong correlation between small stress perturbations and strain rate requires perturbation on the order of the ambient stress. The observed tidal modulation restricts ambient stress to be at most a few kilopascal, much lower than rock strength. A purely rate dependent friction is consistent with the observations only if the product of the friction rate dependence and effective normal stress is ~ 0.5 kPa. Extrapolating the friction rate strengthening dependence of phyllosilicates (talc) to depth would require the effective normal stress to be ~50 kPa, implying pore pressure is lithostatic. If the LFE source is on the order of tens of meters, as required by the model, rate-weakening friction rate dependence (e.g., olivine) at 400 to 600°C requires that the minimum effective pressure at the LFE source is ~ 2.5 MPa.

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USGS2012

The velocity field along the San Andreas Fault in central and southern California

The velocity field within a 100‐km‐broad zone centered on the San Andreas fault between the Mexican border and San Francisco Bay has been inferred from repeated surveys of trilateration networks in the 1973–1989 interval. The velocity field has the appearance of a shear flow that remains parallel to the local strike of the fault even through such major deflections as the big bend of the San Andreas fault in the Transverse Ranges of southern California. Across‐strike profiles of the fault‐parallel component of velocity exhibit the expected sigmoidal shape, whereas across‐strike profiles of the fault‐normal component of velocity are flat and featureless. No significant convergence upon the fault is observed even along the big bend sector of the fault. Simple dislocation models can explain most of the features of the observed velocity field, but those explanations are not unique. About 35 mm/yr of relative plate motion is accounted for within the span of the trilateration networks. Geologic studies indicate that the secular slip rate on the San Andreas fault is about 35 mm/yr. The agreement between these two estimates implies that most of the strain accumulation is elastic and will be recovered in subsequent earthquakes. The relative motion observed across the San Andreas fault (35 mm/yr) plus that observed across the Eastern California shear zone (8 mm/yr) accounts for most (43 mm/yr) of the observed North America‐Pacific relative plate motion (47 mm/yr).

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USGS2012

Short-period strain (0.1–105 s): Near-source strain field for an earthquake (ML 3.2) near San Juan Bautista, California

Measurements of dilational earth strain in the frequency band 25–10 −5 Hz have been made on a deep borehole strainmeter installed near the San Andreas fault. These data are used to determine seismic radiation fields during nuclear explosions, teleseisms, local earthquakes, and ground noise during seismically quiet times. Strains of less than 10 −10 on these instruments can be clearly resolved at short periods (< 10 s) and are recorded with wide dynamic range digital recorders. This permits measurement of the static and dynamic strain variations in the near field of local earthquakes. Noise spectra for earth strain referenced to 1 (strain) 2 /Hz show that strain resolution decreases at about 10 dB per decade of frequency from −150 dB at 10 −4 Hz to −223 dB at 10 Hz. Exact expressions are derived to relate the volumetric strain and displacement field for a homogeneous P wave in a general viscoelastic solid as observed on colocated dilatometers and seismometers. A rare near-field recording of strain and seismic velocity was obtained on May 26, 1984, from an earthquake ( M L 3.2) at a hypocentral distance of 3.2 km near the San Andreas fault at San Juan Bautista, California. While the data indicate no precursory strain release at the 5 × 10 −11 strain level, a coseismic strain release of 1.86 nanostrain was observed. This change in strain is consistent with that calculated from a simple dislocation model of the event. Ground displacement spectra, determined from the downhole strain data and instrument-corrected surface seismic data, suggest that source parameters estimated from surface recordings may be contaminated by amplification effects in near-surface low-velocity materials.

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USGS2011

A reevaluation of the Pallett Creek earthquake chronology based on new AMS radiocarbon dates, San Andreas fault, California

The Pallett Creek paleoseismic record occupies a keystone position in most attempts to develop rupture histories for the southern San Andreas fault. Previous estimates of earthquake ages at Pallett Creek were determined by decay counting radiocarbon methods. That method requires large samples which can lead to unaccounted sources of uncertainty in radiocarbon ages because of the heterogeneous composition of organic layers. In contrast, accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) radiocarbon dates may be obtained from small samples that have known carbon sources and also allow for a more complete sampling of the section. We present 65 new AMS radiocarbon dates that span nine ground‐rupturing earthquakes at Pallett Creek. Overall, the AMS dates are similar to and reveal no dramatic bias in the conventional dates. For many layers, however, individual charcoal samples were younger than the conventional dates, leading to earthquake ages that are overall slightly younger than previously reported. New earthquake ages are determined by Bayesian refinement of the layer ages based on stratigraphic ordering and sedimentological constraints. The new chronology is more regular than previously published records in large part due to new samples constraining the age of event R. The closed interval from event C to 1857 has a mean recurrence of 135 years ( σ = 83.2 years) and a quasiperiodic coefficient of variation (COV) of 0.61. We show that the new dates and resultant earthquake chronology have a stronger effect on COV than the specific membership of this long series and dating precision improvements from sedimentation rates.

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USGS2011

Correlation between deep fluids, tremor and creep along the central San Andreas fault

The seismicity pattern along the San Andreas fault near Parkfield and Cholame, California, varies distinctly over a length of only fifty kilometres. Within the brittle crust, the presence of frictionally weak minerals, fault-weakening high fluid pressures and chemical weakening are considered possible causes of an anomalously weak fault northwest of Parkfield. Non-volcanic tremor from lower-crustal and upper-mantle depths is most pronounced about thirty kilometres southeast of Parkfield and is thought to be associated with high pore-fluid pressures at depth. Here we present geophysical evidence of fluids migrating into the creeping section of the San Andreas fault that seem to originate in the region of the uppermost mantle that also stimulates tremor, and evidence that along-strike variations in tremor activity and amplitude are related to strength variations in the lower crust and upper mantle. Interconnected fluids can explain a deep zone of anomalously low electrical resistivity that has been imaged by magnetotelluric data southwest of the Parkfield-Cholame segment. Near Cholame, where fluids seem to be trapped below a high-resistivity cap, tremor concentrates adjacent to the inferred fluids within a mechanically strong zone of high resistivity. By contrast, subvertical zones of low resistivity breach the entire crust near the drill hole of the San Andreas Fault Observatory at Depth, northwest of Parkfield, and imply pathways for deep fluids into the eastern fault block, coincident with a mechanically weak crust and the lower tremor amplitudes in the lower crust. Fluid influx to the fault system is consistent with hypotheses of fault-weakening high fluid pressures in the brittle crust.

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USGS2008

Talc friction in the temperature range 25°–400 °C: relevance for fault-zone weakening

Talc is one of the weakest minerals that is associated with fault zones. Triaxial friction experiments conducted on water-saturated talc gouge at room temperature yield values of the coefficient of friction, μ (shear stress, τ /effective normal stress, σ′ N ) in the range 0.16–0.23, and μ increases with increasing σ′ N . Talc gouge heated to temperatures of 100°–400 °C is consistently weaker than at room temperature, and μ < 0.1 at slow strain rates in some heated experiments. Talc also is characterized by inherently stable, velocity-strengthening behavior (strength increases with increasing shear rate) at all conditions tested. The low strength of talc is a consequence of its layered crystal structure and, in particular, its very weak interlayer bond. Its hydrophobic character may be responsible for the relatively small increase in μ with increasing σ′ N at room temperature compared to other sheet silicates. Talc has a temperature–pressure range of stability that extends from surficial to eclogite-facies conditions, making it of potential significance in a variety of faulting environments. Talc has been identified in exhumed subduction zone thrusts, in fault gouge collected from oceanic transform and detachment faults associated with rift systems, and recently in serpentinite from the central creeping section of the San Andreas fault. Typically, talc crystallized in the active fault zones as a result of the reaction of ultramafic rocks with silica-saturated hydrothermal fluids. This mode of formation of talc is a prime example of a fault-zone weakening process. Because of its velocity-strengthening behavior, talc may play a role in stabilizing slip at depth in subduction zones and in the creeping faults of central and northern California that are associated with ophiolitic rocks.

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USGS2007

Talc-bearing serpentinite and the creeping section of the San Andreas fault

The section of the San Andreas fault located between Cholame Valley and San Juan Bautista in central California creeps at a rate as high as 28 mm yr -1 (ref. 1 ), and it is also the segment that yields the best evidence for being a weak fault embedded in a strong crust 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 . Serpentinized ultramafic rocks have been associated with creeping faults in central and northern California 6 , 7 , 8 , and serpentinite is commonly invoked as the cause of the creep and the low strength of this section of the San Andreas fault. However, the frictional strengths of serpentine minerals are too high to satisfy the limitations on fault strength, and these minerals also have the potential for unstable slip under some conditions 9 , 10 . Here we report the discovery of talc in cuttings of serpentinite collected from the probable active trace of the San Andreas fault that was intersected during drilling of the San Andreas Fault Observatory at Depth (SAFOD) main hole in 2005. We infer that the talc is forming as a result of the reaction of serpentine minerals with silica-saturated hydrothermal fluids that migrate up the fault zone, and the talc commonly occurs in sheared serpentinite. This discovery is significant, as the frictional strength of talc at elevated temperatures is sufficiently low to meet the constraints on the shear strength of the fault, and its inherently stable sliding behaviour is consistent with fault creep 11 . Talc may therefore provide the connection between serpentinite and creep in the San Andreas fault, if shear at depth can become localized along a talc-rich principal-slip surface within serpentinite entrained in the fault zone.

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USGS2002

Paleoseismic event dating and the conditional probability of large earthquakes on the southern San Andreas fault, California

We introduce a quantitative approach to paleoearthquake dating and apply it to paleoseismic data from the Wrightwood and Pallett Creek sites on the southern San Andreas fault. We illustrate how stratigraphic ordering, sedimentological, and historical data can be used quantitatively in the process of estimating earthquake ages. Calibrated radiocarbon age distributions are used directly from layer dating through recurrence intervals and recurrence probability estimation. The method does not eliminate subjective judgements in event dating, but it does provide a means of systematically and objectively approaching the dating process. Date distributions for the most recent 14 events at Wrightwood are based on sample and contextual evidence in Fumal et al. (2002) and site context and slip history in Weldon et al. (2002). Pallett Creek event and dating descriptions are from published sources. For the five most recent events at Wrightwood, our results are consistent with previously published estimates, with generally comparable or narrower uncertainties. For Pallett Creek, our earthquake date estimates generally overlap with previous results but typically have broader uncertainties. Some event date estimates are very sensitive to details of data interpretation. The historical earthquake in 1857 ruptured the ground at both sites but is not constrained by radiocarbon data. Radiocarbon ages, peat accumulation rates, and historical constraints at Pallett Creek for event X yield a date estimate in the earliest 1800s and preclude a date in the late 1600s. This event is almost certainly the historical 1812 earthquake, as previously concluded by Sieh et al. (1989). This earthquake also produced ground deformation at Wrightwood. All events at Pallett Creek, except for event T, about A.D. 1360, and possibly event I, about A.D. 960, have corresponding events at Wrightwood with some overlap in age ranges. Event T falls during a period of low sedimentation at Wrightwood when conditions were not favorable for recording earthquake evidence. Previously proposed correlations of Pallett Creek X with Wrightwood W3 in the 1690s and Pallett Creek event V with W5 around 1480 (Fumal et al., 1993) appear unlikely after our dating reevaluation. Apparent internal inconsistencies among event, layer, and dating relationships around events R and V identify them as candidates for further investigation at the site. Conditional probabilities of earthquake recurrence were estimated using Poisson, lognormal, and empirical models. The presence of 12 or 13 events at Wrightwood during the same interval that 10 events are reported at Pallett Creek is reflected in mean recurrence intervals of 105 and 135 years, respectively. Average Poisson model 30-year conditional probabilities are about 20% at Pallett Creek and 25% at Wrightwood. The lognormal model conditional probabilities are somewhat higher, about 25% for Pallett Creek and 34% for Wrightwood. Lognormal variance ??ln estimates of 0.76 and 0.70, respectively, imply only weak time predictability. Conditional probabilities of 29% and 46%, respectively, were estimated for an empirical distribution derived from the data alone. Conditional probability uncertainties are dominated by the brevity of the event series; dating uncertainty contributes only secondarily. Wrightwood and Pallett Creek event chronologies both suggest variations in recurrence interval with time, hinting that some form of recurrence rate modulation may be at work, but formal testing shows that neither series is more ordered than might be produced by a Poisson process.

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USGS1991

Seismic quiescence at Parkfield due to detachment faulting

On the San Andreas fault near Parkfield, California, rates of seismicity 1,2 and geodetic line shortening 3,4 have been lower since 1986 than before. Wyss et al . 1,3 interpret the rate decreases as precursors to an imminent moderate earthquake (magnitude M = 5.5−6) and estimate the earthquake time to be March 1991 ± 1 yr. The earthquake was previously predicted to occur in 1988 ± 5 yr based on five of six similar earthquakes which occurred at intervals ∼ 22 yr, the last one in 1966 5 . Here I present a model that attributes the rate changes to the initiation of slip on a subhorizontal detachment fault under the pending rupture area. In this model, the slip starts late in the seismic cycle, and diminishes the loading rate on the nearby San Andreas, thus acting as a buffer.

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USGS1990

Ground motion

No abstract available.

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USGS1989

On the use of volumetric strain meters to infer additional characteristics of short-period seismic radiation

Volumetric strain meters (Sacks-Evertson design) are installed at 15 sites along the San Andreas fault system, to monitor long-term strain changes for earthquake prediction. Deployment of portable broadband, high-resolution digital recorders (GEOS) at several of the sites extends the detection band for volumetric strain to periods shorter than 5 × 10 −2 sec and permits the simultaneous observation of seismic radiation fields using conventional short-period pendulum seismometers. Simultaneous observations establish that the strain detection bandwidth extends from periods greater than 10 7 seconds to periods near 5 × 10 −2 sec with a dynamic range exceeding 140 dB. Measurements of earth-strain noise for the period band, 10 7 to 10 −2 sec, show that ground noise, not instrument noise, currently limits the measurement of strain over a bandwidth of more than eight orders of magnitude in period. Comparison of the short-period portion of earth-strain, noise spectra (20 to 5 × 10 −2 sec) with average spectra determined from pendulum seismometers, suggest that observed noise is predominantly dilatational energy. Recordings of local and regional earthquakes indicate that dilatometers respond to P energy but not direct shear energy and that straingrams can be used to resolve superimposed reflected P and S waves for inference of wave characteristics not permitted by either sensor alone. Simultaneous measurements of incident P - and S -wave amplitudes are used to introduce a technique for single-station estimates of wave field inhomogeneity, free-surface reflection coefficients and local material P velocity. Estimates of these parameters derived for the North Palm Springs earthquake ( M w 5.9) respectively for an incident P wave of 29° are −85°, 1.71, 2.9 km/sec, and for an incident S wave of 17° are 79°, 0.85, 2.9 km/sec. The empirical estimates of reflection coefficients are consistent with model estimates derived using an anelastic half-space model with incident inhomogeneous wave fields.

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USGS1989

Taking the pulse of the San Andreas Fault

The ninth of January, 1989, was the 32nd anniversary of the great southern California earthquake of 1857. the latest research shows that, on average, at least part of the section of the San Andreas fault that broke then should break again this year. But the same research suggests that the fault's average behavior could be misleading. A newly refined dating of the past 10 San Andreas ruptures adjacent to Los Angeles reveals a previously unrecognized clustering of large earthquakes in bunches of two or three. If this pattern were to hold, Los Angeles would wait at least another 80 years for another jolt from there. But the San Andreas is not that easy to get around.

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USGS1988

The role of the Federal government in the Parkfield earthquake prediction experiment

Earthquake prediction research in the United States us carried out under the aegis of the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act of 1977. One of the objectives of the act is "the implementation in all areas of high or moderate seismic risk, of a system (including personnel and procedures) for predicting damaging earthquakes and for identifying, evaluating, and accurately characterizing seismic hazards." Among the four Federal agencies working under the 1977 act, the U.S Geological Survey (USGS) is responsible for earthquake prediction research and technological implementation. The USGS has adopted a goal that is stated quite simply; predict the time, place, and magnitude of damaging earthquakes. The Parkfield earthquake prediction experiment represents the msot concentrated and visible effor to date to test progress toward this goal.

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