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Research about Prairie Potholes Region

Source-linked reports with geographic coverage including Prairie Potholes Region.

9 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2022

Climate and land use driven ecosystem homogenization in the Prairie Pothole Region

The homogenization of freshwater ecosystems and their biological communities has emerged as a prevalent and concerning phenomenon because of the loss of ecosystem multifunctionality. The millions of prairie-pothole wetlands scattered across the Prairie Pothole Region (hereafter PPR) provide critical ecosystem functions at local, regional, and continental scales. However, an estimated loss of 50% of historical wetlands and the widespread conversion of grasslands to cropland make the PPR a heavily modified landscape. Therefore, it is essential to understand the current and potential future stressors affecting prairie-pothole wetland ecosystems in order to conserve and restore their functions. Here, we describe a conceptual model that illustrates how (a) historical wetland losses, (b) anthropogenic landscape modifications, and (c) climate change interact and have altered the variability among remaining depressional wetland ecosystems (i.e., ecosystem homogenization) in the PPR. We reviewed the existing literature to provide examples of wetland ecosystem homogenization, provide implications for wetland management, and identify informational gaps that require further study. We found evidence for spatial, hydrological, chemical, and biological homogenization of prairie-pothole wetlands. Our findings indicate that the maintenance of wetland ecosystem multifunctionality is dependent on the preservation and restoration of heterogenous wetland complexes, especially the restoration of small wetland basins.

Alberta, Iowa, Manitoba, Minnesota, Montana, North↗
USGS2022

Reassessing perennial cover as a driver of duck nest survival in the Prairie Pothole Region

Conservation plans designed to sustain North American duck populations prominently feature a key hypothesis stating that the amount of the landscape in perennial cover surrounding upland duck nests positively influences nest survival rates. Recent conflicting research testing this hypothesis creates ambiguity regarding which management actions to pursue and where to prioritize conservation delivery. We compared existing models and new formulations of existing models explaining spatiotemporal variation in nest survival using independent data documenting the fate of >20,000 duck nests within the Drift Prairie, Missouri Coteau, and Prairie Coteau physiographic regions of the United States Prairie Pothole Region during 2002–2018. Our results suggest an inconsistent relationship between perennial cover and survival of upland duck nests, which depended upon physiographic region and current and time-lagged landscape and environmental conditions. The magnitude and direction of how perennial cover correlated with daily nest survival depended on its dominance as a landcover type. A positive relationship existed when perennial cover was a minor component of landcover in all physiographic regions (<30% of a 10.4-km 2 area) and, in the Drift Prairie and Prairie Coteau, when perennial cover was the dominant landcover type (>60%). A constant or negative relationship was predicted at locations of about 30–60% perennial cover. Additionally, environmental conditions (i.e., density of wetlands and estimated gross primary productivity in the previous year) moderated or enhanced the effect of perennial cover on nest survival, depending on physiographic region. Our finding of inconsistency in the relationship between perennial cover and nest survival contradicts the conservation premise that nest survival universally increases linearly when uplands are converted to perennial cover. Promoting policies and management actions designed to increase perennial cover can be expected to be situationally but not consistently associated with higher survival of upland duck nests.

Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota↗
USGS2022

Prairie wetlands as sources or sinks of nitrous oxide: Effects of land use and hydrology

National and global greenhouse gas (GHG) budgets are continually being refined as data become available. Primary sources of the potent GHG nitrous oxide (N 2 O) include agricultural soil management and burning of fossil fuels, but comprehensive N 2 O budgets also incorporate less prominent factors such as wetlands. Freshwater wetland GHG flux estimates, however, have high uncertainty, and wetlands have been identified as both sources and sinks. Here, we analyzed a regional database of >26,000 N 2 O chamber flux measurements sampled across >150 wetlands from the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) in the Great Plains of North America. Our goal was to identify important land use and hydrologic drivers of N 2 O flux to help reduce uncertainty in N 2 O models, and to incorporate these drivers into an upscaled estimate of wetland N 2 O emissions from the U.S. portion of the PPR. Within individual wetlands, exposed soils with no standing water, such as along wetland edges, were hotspots that accounted for greater than 90% of wetland N 2 O emissions. In contrast wet (i.e., ponded) areas had minimal or negative N 2 O flux. N 2 O flux from wetlands nested within croplands (16.3–17.3 μg N 2 O m −2 hr −1 ) was, in some instances, nearly double that from wetlands within grasslands (9.2–14.4 μg N 2 O m −2 h −1 ). We estimated that seasonal N 2 O flux from PPR wetlands equated to roughly 0.2% (1.04 Tg CO 2 equivalents) of the U.S. N 2 O budget (c. 2019). Overall, even though PPR wetlands are a small net source of N 2 O to the atmosphere, their emissions are negligible relative to agricultural soil management. Policy and management to restore wetland hydrology and surrounding uplands from cropland to grasslands can reduce landscape N 2 O fluxes. Future activities focused on wetland N 2 O flux would benefit from inclusion of adjacent land use and hydrologic factors, as well as from incorporation of temporally dynamic ponded wetland areas.

Iowa, Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, South Dako↗
USGS2022

The impact of future climate on wetland habitat in a critical migratory waterfowl corridor of the Prairie Pothole Region

Depressional wetlands are extremely sensitive to changes in temperature and precipitation, so understanding how wetland inundation dynamics respond to changes in climate is essential for describing potential effects on wildlife breeding habitat. Millions of depressional basins make up the largest wetland complex in North America known as the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR). The wetland ecosystems that have formed in these basins provide important migratory-bird breeding habitat. The southeast portion of the U.S. PPR in Minnesota and Iowa has faced some of the greatest challenges in wetland conservation. Many existing prairie-pothole wetlands are small (<1 ha) and shallow (<2 m) and are typically not inundated with surface water year-round. Our goal with this project is to increase the efficacy of mapping tools used by management agencies to predict future changes in water levels in the PPR. We accomplish this goal by improving the link between existing data (about wetland water characteristics) and existing tools (mapping products). Our results successfully validated (2009-2021) the current mapping tool (a wetland hydrology model) used by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) to manage 22 wetlands in Minnesota. We were able to hindcast wetland water levels to 1984 and assess the accuracy of a satellite-derived surface water product and forecast water levels through 2099 using a suite of modeled climate data. This newly refined link between monitoring data and remote sensing tools will increase understanding and prediction for other wetlands beyond our study sites and through the Minnesota and Iowa portions of the PPR. Through conference presentations, publications, and development of an interactive climate change dashboard we are now working with managers to determine how we can help incorporate these predicted changes to waterfowl breeding habitat into their future management, acquisition, and restoration strategy.

Alberta, Iowa, Manitoba, Minnesota, Montana, Nebra↗
USGS2021

Patch utilization and flower visitations by wild bees in a honey bee-dominated, grassland landscape

Understanding habitat needs and patch utilization of wild and managed bees has been identified as a national research priority in the United States. We used occupancy models to investigate patterns of bee use across 1030 transects spanning a gradient of floral resource abundance and richness and distance from apiaries in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the United States. Estimates of transect use by honey bees were nearly 1.0 during our 3.5-month sampling period, suggesting honey bees were nearly ubiquitous across transects. Wild bees more frequently used transects with higher flower richness and more abundant flowers; however, the effect size of the native flower abundance covariate ( = 3.90 ± 0.65 [1SE]) was four times greater than the non-native flower covariate ( = 0.99 ± 0.17). We found some evidence that wild bee use was lower at transects near commercial apiaries, but the effect size was imprecise ( = 1.4 ± 0.81). Honey bees were more frequently detected during sampling events with more non-native flowers and higher species richness but showed an uncertain relationship with native flower abundance. Of the 4039 honey bee and flower interactions, 85% occurred on non-native flowers, while only 43% of the 738 wild bee observations occurred on non-native flowers. Our study suggests wild bees and honey bees routinely use the same resource patches in the PPR but often visit different flowering plants. The greatest potential for resource overlap between honey bees and wild bees appears to be for non-native flowers in the PPR. Our results are valuable to natural resource managers tasked with supporting habitat for managed and wild pollinators in agroecosystems.

Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota↗
USGS2021

Limited shifts in the distribution of migratory bird breeding habitat density in response to future changes in climate

Grasslands, and the depressional wetlands that exist throughout them, are endangered ecosystems that face both climate and land-use change pressures. Tens of millions of dollars are invested annually to manage the existing fragments of these ecosystems to serve as critical breeding habitat for migratory birds. The North American Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is a region that contains millions of depressional wetlands that produce between 50 and 80% of the continent’s waterfowl population and. Previous modeling efforts suggested that climate change would result in a shift of suitable waterfowl breeding habitat from the central to the southeast portion of the PPR, an area where over half of the wetlands have been drained. The implications of these projections suggest a massive investment in wetland restoration in the southeastern PPR would be needed to sustain waterfowl populations at harvestable levels. We revisited these modeled results indicating how future climate may impact the distribution of waterfowl-breeding habitat using up-to-date climate model projections and a newly developed model for simulating prairie-pothole wetland hydrology. We also presented changes to the number of “May ponds,” a metric used by U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to estimate waterfowl breeding populations and establish harvest regulations. Based on the output of 32 climate models and 2 emission scenarios, we found no evidence that the distribution of May ponds would shift in the future. However, our results projected a 17% decrease to 5% increase in May-pond numbers when comparing the most recent climate period (1989–2018) to the end of the 21st century (2070–2099). When combined, our results suggest areas in the PPR that that currently support the highest densities of intact wetland basins, and thus support the largest numbers of breeding-duck pairs, will likely also be the places most critical to maintaining continental waterfowl populations in an uncertain future.

Prairie Potholes Region↗
USGS2019

The relative importance of wetland area versus habitat heterogeneity for promoting species richness and abundance of wetland birds in the Prairie Pothole Region, USA

Recent work has suggested that a tradeoff exists between habitat area and habitat heterogeneity, with a moderate amount of heterogeneity supporting greatest species richness. Support for this unimodal relationship has been mixed and has differed among habitats and taxa. We examined the relationship between habitat heterogeneity and species richness after accounting for habitat area in glacially formed wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region in the United States at both local and landscape scales. We tested for area–habitat heterogeneity tradeoffs in wetland bird species richness, the richness of groups of similar species, and in species’ abundances. We then identified the habitat relationships for individual species and the relative importance of wetland area vs. habitat heterogeneity and other wetland characteristics. We found that habitat area was the primary driver of species richness and abundance. Additional variation in richness and abundance could be explained by habitat heterogeneity or other wetland and landscape characteristics. Overall avian species richness responded unimodally to habitat heterogeneity, suggesting an area–heterogeneity tradeoff. Group richness and abundance metrics showed either unimodal or linear relationships with habitat heterogeneity. Habitat heterogeneity indices at local and landscape scales were important for some, but not all, species and avian groups. Both abundance of individual species and species richness of most avian groups were higher on publicly owned wetlands than on privately owned wetlands, on restored wetlands than natural wetlands, and on permanent wetlands than on wetlands of other classes. However, we found that all wetlands examined, regardless of ownership, restoration status, and wetland class, supported wetland-obligate birds. Thus, protection of all wetland types contributes to species conservation. Our results support conventional wisdom that protection of large wetlands is a priority but also indicate that maintaining habitat heterogeneity will enhance biodiversity and support higher populations of individual species.

North Dakota, South Dakota↗
USGS2019

Climate-driven state shifts in the Prairie Pothole Region: Assessing future impacts relevant to the management of wetland habitats critical to waterfowl

Embedded within the North American Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) are millions of small, depressional wetlands that annually support 50–80% of the continent’s waterfowl production. We recently assembled evidence that demonstrates a change towards a wetter climate that is driving a shift in the state of the region’s wetland ecosystems. This ecological state-shift has been primarily the result of a sustained wet climate that has influenced timing and magnitude of surface-water inputs to wetlands, connections to groundwater, and inputs of dissolved salts. As climate influences continue to change in the PPR, it is important to understand the potential of these changes to impact wetland habitats important for waterfowl production. Previous model simulations of prairie-pothole wetlands under future climate scenarios projected decreases in the ability of wetlands to facilitate waterfowl production throughout the majority of what is currently the most productive portion of the region. Results from these modeling efforts also suggested that suitable waterfowl breeding-habitat would be limited mostly to the southeastern portion of the PPR, a portion of the region in which most depressional wetlands (> 90%) have been drained. Thus, if these modeled outcomes materialize, a significant restoration effort would be needed in the southeastern PPR to support waterfowl production. However, the models used in earlier efforts were developed from a small number of wetlands using data from a relatively dry period and did not allow for changing mechanisms influencing surface-water, groundwater and dissolved salt inputs to prairie-pothole wetlands. The primary objective of our research is to improve our understanding of future climate change on impacts to wetland ecosystems and breeding waterfowl habitat in the PPR. We used a newly developed Pothole Hydrology Linked Systems Simulator (PHyLiSS) model to estimate wetland ecosystem responses to 32 distinct climate models under 2 different emissions scenarios. Unlike previous wetland hydrology models, the PHyLiSS model allows for shifting hydrological and geochemical mechanisms influencing wetland ecosystems. We modeled one average-sized seasonal wetland basin at 18 different geographic locations (hereafter “sites”) across the PPR with 3 sites represented for each of 6 ecoregions coincident to early research. We applied the PHyLiSS model using historical daily precipitation and temperature data from 1982–2015 and developed linear models relative to ponded water depth in the simulated wetlands and the observed regional WBPHS May Pond count number for 16 of the 18 sites. Based on the output of 32 climate models and 2 emission scenarios we found a projected change in May pond numbers from -23% to +.02% when comparing the most recent climate period (1989–2018) to the end of the 21 st century (2070–2099). We also found no evidence that the distribution of May ponds will shift in the future. These results suggest that management and conservation strategies for wetlands in the PPR should continue to focus on areas where high densities of intact wetland basins support large numbers of breeding duck pairs.

Alberta, Iowa, Manitoba, Minnesota, Montana, North↗