Geology topics

Research about Nebraska

Source-linked reports with geographic coverage including Nebraska.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Mapping groundwater recharge potential and an assessment of available hydrogeologic data within five selected focus areas in eastern Nebraska

Groundwater recharge potential was mapped using airborne electromagnetic survey data collected over the previously glaciated part of eastern Nebraska. To evaluate the appropriate resolution at which airborne electromagnetic data should be interpolated (or represented), we compared a 500-meter cell raster and a filled contour shapefile to known geologic features, point estimates of groundwater recharge, and selected water-quality data. The median groundwater recharge rate for the estimates collected in areas mapped as having high groundwater recharge potential were higher compared to the groundwater recharge rate estimates collected in areas mapped as having moderate and low recharge potential. Selected water-quality data were examined to determine the influence of near-surface geology on water quality, groundwater geochemistry, and groundwater age. The strongest statistical correlations were produced when examining specific conductance values measured from wells in areas mapped as high, moderate, and low groundwater recharge potential. Within till-covered areas, statistically significant differences existed in nitrate, dissolved oxygen, manganese, and iron concentrations sampled from wells mapped in high, moderate, and low groundwater recharge potential areas. Boxplots indicate that till-covered areas mapped as low groundwater recharge potential generally have lower concentrations of nitrate and dissolved oxygen, but higher concentrations of manganese and iron. The Eastern Nebraska Water Resources Assessment project sponsors have identified five focus areas as locations facing unique and important groundwater resource management issues. These focus areas are experiencing the emergence of groundwater resource issues that include increased groundwater development, nitrate contamination, and the potential expansion of rural water districts. Hydrogeologic assessments were completed for the Dorchester-Sterling paleovalley aquifer, Dodge County, Knox County, Burt County, and the Fremont-Arlington-Leshara focus areas. Potential future studies to address data gaps were identified and discussed.

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USGS2026

Statewide surficial geologic map of Nebraska underscores Quaternary landscape evolution from the High Plains to the Central Lowland

Surficial geologic mapping in Nebraska has been conducted primarily at the 1:24,000 scale since the mid-1990s, although there have also been limited efforts to map generalized Quaternary and surficial geology within the state and the region. We compiled and evaluated disparate maps (1:24,000–1:1,000,000) and datasets—including geologic, soil and soil parent material, and geomorphic maps as well as LiDAR derivatives—to produce a single 1:500,000 scale surficial geologic map of Nebraska that is the first of its kind. This new map provides a coarse-scale surficial geologic map that will be incorporated into a nationwide U.S. Geological Survey Quaternary geologic map. It also reflects the variation and uniqueness of physical landscapes in the state, where the Great Plains and Central Lowland physiographic provinces meet, further developing a richer interdisciplinary understanding of regional geomorphology in the heart of North America.

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USGS2026

Linking distribution and return-on-investment models to optimize woody management for prairie grouse in Nebraska

Grasslands in Nebraska, USA, face threats from agricultural conversion, urban development, and woody encroachment, all of which negatively affect prairie grouse ( Tympanuchus spp.) populations. To optimize conservation planning, Nebraska wildlife agencies developed probabilistic area-based surveys for greater prairie-chicken ( T. cupido ) and sharp-tailed grouse ( T. phasianellus ) to sample landscapes across a range of environmental conditions. This design improves historical surveys and enables the development of distribution models that quantitatively define habitat associations and support scenario-based conservation planning. Using survey data collected during 2020–2022, we modeled prairie grouse occurrence and abundance as functions of land cover, topography, and climate using Bayesian logistic and zero-inflated negative binomial models with regularized horseshoe priors. We then conducted a maximum potential return-on-investment analysis of woody cover treatments, assuming sustained treatment success, relative to projected impacts of woody encroachment on prairie grouse populations by 2050. Among modeled associations were a positive association with grasslands having low woody cover and a negative association with grasslands having high woody cover. Across the 3-year period, median estimated annual populations were 142,380 for greater prairie-chicken (range of 95% CIs across years = 68,821–277,615) and 64,154 for sharp-tailed grouse (range of 95% CIs across years = 27,550–146,559). Under projected woody encroachment, mean predicted population declines were 10% for greater prairie-chicken (range of 95% CIs = 7–14%) and 6% for sharp-tailed grouse (range of 95% CIs = 5–7%). Areas with high prairie grouse density and low treatment costs in 2021, and high projected woody encroachment and population loss by 2050, offered the greatest return on investment for woody management. Return on investment was greatest in the northwestern Shortgrass Prairie ecoregion (northwestern Nebraska) for sharp-tailed grouse and the eastern Sandhills ecoregion (central Nebraska) for both species. These models underscore the value of evidence-based, quantitative approaches for prioritizing conservation actions on working lands. Scenario-based modeling could be extended to guide other treatments, such as optimizing restoration (e.g., Conservation Reserve Program) or incentivizing grassland persistence in areas with predicted climate resilience.

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USGS2026

3D Elevation Program—Nebraska

Using 3D Elevation Program data, a modern illustration of each State's landscape showcases its elevation differences in vivid detail. Each State has been consistently adjusted and colorized according to its highest and lowest elevations, accentuating differences even in States with low relief. To further emphasize landforms, shaded relief has been added on top of the elevation colors.

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USGS2026

Magnitude and frequency of peak and low flows in the Elkhorn River Basin, Nebraska, 1881–2022

Flood-frequency analysis is based on records of annual maximum instantaneous flows observed at long-term streamgages with 10 years or more of operation. Since the last flood-frequency analysis in Nebraska, an additional 30 years of annual peak-flow data have become available, and new flood-frequency analysis techniques have been developed. Moreover, the Elkhorn River Basin in north-central and eastern Nebraska has experienced two of the three highest magnitude floods on record in 2010 and 2019. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Nebraska Department of Transportation, analyzed flow frequency at streamgages in the Elkhorn River Basin in Nebraska. Flow data from the U.S. Geological Survey and the Nebraska Department of Water, Energy, and Environment annual hydrographic reports were utilized to analyze peak flows. The Peak flow FreQuency (PeakFQ) software was used to perform a flood-frequency and nonstationarity analysis on the selected streamgages in the Elkhorn River Basin in Nebraska. Results of the peak-flow nonstationarity analysis indicate that, of the 23 streamgages analyzed for peak-flow frequency, 4 showed trends that were likely increasing for annual peak flows, whereas 3 indicated trends that were somewhat likely to be increasing. For 11 streamgages, the trend was categorized as about as likely as not, meaning there is less than a 70-percent chance of the trend being either upward or downward. Additionally, 2 streamgages exhibited trends that were somewhat likely to be decreasing, and 3 streamgages showed trends that were likely decreasing. Low-flow streamflows and nonstationarity in the Elkhorn River Basin were analyzed for low flow periods representing the 1-day, 7-day, and 30-day flows at 21 streamgages using the Hydrologic Toolbox software. Spatially, the nonstationarity analysis results indicated likely increasing or somewhat increasing trend likelihoods for the 1-day, 7-day, and 30-day low flows for many of the Elkhorn streamgages downstream from the Elkhorn River at Ewing, Nebr., streamgage (U.S. Geological Survey station 06797500) and on eastern tributaries during the period of record.

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USGS2026

Colonization of southern flying squirrels (Glaucomys volans) to urban Nebraska: Range expansion or human assisted translocation?

Southern flying squirrels ( Glaucomys volans; Linnaeus 1758) were first observed in Lincoln, Nebraska, in 2018, 80 km north of their described range. Given that southern flying squirrels are a species of concern within Nebraska, determining the origin of this new population (natural expansion or pet-trade) garnered interest from state biologists. Further, the recent colonization of Lincoln by southern flying squirrels presents a unique opportunity to investigate the genetic implications of a founding event on a small arboreal mammal. The Lincoln population had genetic characteristics suggestive of a single-event colonization with fewer rare alleles and lower genetic diversity than potential source populations and a high genetic variation between populations. Sample size and absence of other geographically close populations in our data set make it difficult to ascertain the origin of the Lincoln population. Based on shared co-ancestry and membership assignment clustering algorithms, the Lincoln population had greater genetic associations with an individual sampled from the native south-eastern Nebraska population relative to other studied locations, suggesting that Lincoln was colonized by a native population.

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USGS2026

Population dynamics of Northern Pearl Dace Margariscus nachtriebi in anthropogenically altered headwater streams of the Nebraska Sandhills Ecoregion

Empirical evidence of population demographic responses to environmental perturbations is a major knowledge gap for aquatic vertebrate populations. Extensive habitat alteration including channelization of headwater streams influences the habitat template on which small-bodied fish are dependent to carry out distinct life stages and maintain or increase population growth. The objectives of this study were to (1) determine differences in geomorphic characteristics, and instream habitat (i.e., mesohabitat availability, water depth, and macrophyte coverage) in channelized and unchannelized stream sites, and (2) estimate survival of Northern Pearl Dace Margariscus nachtriebi in channelized and unchannelized stream sites. A capture-mark-recapture robust design study was conducted where a total of 1994 Northern Pearl Dace were double tagged and 853 were recaptured over the 374-day field study. Geomorphic characteristics and instream habitat in channelized and unchannelized stream sites differed (Pillai's Trace = 0.950, F (8, 6) = 14.228, p = 0.002). Specifically, mean sinuosity index ( F (1, 13) = 20.723, p = 0.0005) and the percentage of pool mesohabitat ( F (1, 13) = 4.929, p = 0.045) were both reduced in channelized versus unchannelized stream sites. Northern Pearl Dace seasonal survival was lower in channelized sites (Ŝ Spring to Summer = 0.34; SE = 0.06) compared to unchannelized sites (Ŝ Spring to Summer = 0.93; SE = 0.03) during spring to summer. Annual survival differed between channelized sites (Ŝ = 0.001; SE = 0.009) and unchannelized sites (Ŝ = 0.047; SE = 0.024). Channelization in headwater streams influenced population demographic parameters of stream fish. Northern Pearl Dace exhibited reduced survival in channelized sections of headwater streams flowing through the largest intact grassland ecosystem in North America. Mitigating channelization in streams may benefit persistence of native prairie fishes by increasing survival and subsequently aid in the restoration of headwater streams that flow through grassland ecosystems in North America.

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USGS2026

Arsenic and isotope concentrations in the lower Platte River valley of eastern Nebraska, early 1970s to 2023

The City of Lincoln, Nebraska, has been monitoring concentrations of arsenic in their source water and evaluating their options for treatment and removal since at least 2002. In 2022, the City of Lincoln, Nebr., with funding assistance from the Nebraska Water Sustainability Fund, began cooperating with the U.S. Geological Survey to examine arsenic concentrations in surface water and groundwater in the lower Platte River valley and the area around City of Lincoln Water System (LWS) well field. Arsenic data collected from the Platte River since 1974 were examined using the “weighted regression on time, discharge, and season” model, which compared the streamflow (also referred to as “discharge”), time of year, and season to estimate concentrations of arsenic. Annual mean arsenic concentrations modeled for more than 49 years at the Platte River at Louisville, Nebr., U.S. Geological Survey streamgage (station 06805500), indicated a significant increasing trend. Arsenic concentrations in the Platte River were seasonal, with the highest concentrations being observed during mid- to late summer. When seasonal patterns and streamflow were combined with arsenic concentrations in the Platte River during low streamflow conditions, groundwater contributions, which can have higher arsenic concentrations, make up a larger portion of the streamflow. Arsenic samples were collected from upstream rivers in 2022 and 2023 and were paired to analyze the arsenic contributions at the U.S. Geological Survey streamgage on the Platte River near Ashland, Nebr. (station 06801000), near the City of Lincoln well field. The arsenic concentrations from the streamgage on the Platte River near Ashland, Nebr., location, were higher than the U.S. Geological Survey streamgage on the Elkhorn River at Waterloo, Nebr. (station 06800500), and significantly lower than at the U.S. Geological Survey streamgage on the Platte River near Leshara, Nebr.(station 06796500), indicating that the Platte River usually contributes a higher concentration of arsenic than does the Elkhorn River as they join near Ashland, Nebr. During 1991–2023, six groundwater monitoring wells were analyzed to identify trends in arsenic concentrations. Two of the six wells had a positive trend during the 33-year period. One monitoring well did not reveal a long-term trend during this period but showed a trend during 2019–23, correlating to a period when the island in the middle of the Platte River was connected to the east bank of the river when manganese reducing conditions were present and groundwater levels were declining in the well. Across all wells the oxidation and reduction (redox) condition during the time of sampling was assessed. Mixed anoxic and (or) oxic redox condition was the most common redox process and the highest sampled arsenic concentrations in monitoring wells were observed in anoxic conditions driven by manganese reduction. Groundwater arsenic concentrations had seasonal variation around the City of Lincoln well field, with higher arsenic concentrations tending to be further south in comparison to samples collected further north. Isotope samples were collected and analyzed in surface water and groundwater around the LWS well field. The samples indicate that the proportion of surface water present in the LWS production wells can be higher in the spring and lower in the summer. With higher arsenic concentrations observed in the stream water during the summer period, the LWS source water can be affected by these elevated arsenic concentrations even though the proportion of surface water is lower.

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USGS2026

Extrinsic factors similarly affect nest survival of a threatened shorebird in natural and human-created habitats

Knowledge of factors that influence nest survival can inform effective conservation management for imperiled avian species. Habitat availability and quality are common priorities of conservation efforts, and climate and interspecific associations can also affect survival rates. In the lower Platte River system of eastern Nebraska, USA, Piping Plovers ( Charadrius melodus , hereafter plovers) nest on river sandbars and different types of human-created off-river sites (i.e., sand and gravel mines, housing developments, and transitional sites) that are unique within the Northern Great Plains breeding population. However, off-river habitat may not be suitable for plover nesting long-term because of reduced habitat availability on both river sandbars and off-river sites. We evaluated plover nest survival at off-river and sandbar sites using data from 2008 to 2023 (n = 285). In addition, we examined the effects of extreme temperatures, proximity to conspecific and Interior Least Tern ( Sternula antillarum athalassos , hereafter tern) nests, and temporal factors on nest survival. Plover nest survival did not differ between off-river sites and sandbars or amongst different off-river site types. Daily nest survival was 0.9818 (95% CI = 0.9729–0.9878) from 2008 to 2013 (unexclosed; n = 87) and 0.9950 (0.9918–0.9970) from 2014 to 2023 (exclosed; n = 198). Nest survival increased with the proportion of above average temperature days, increased with proximity to neighboring tern nests, and decreased with later nest initiation dates. Therefore, prioritizing early season nests, recognizing the benefits terns provide to plover nest survival, and monitoring the effect of climatic trends may aid future conservation efforts. Finally, as nest survival at off-river sites is comparable to sandbars, the predicted decline of habitat provided at off-river sites may reduce the overall breeding productivity and abundance of plovers in the lower Platte River system with ramifications to broader population viability.

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USGS2025

Adult and hatch-year survival and fidelity of Piping Plovers Charadrius melodus in the lower Platte River system, Nebraska, USA

Knowledge of vital rates informs the conservation and management of threatened and endangered species. In the northern Great Plains, USA, the federally threatened Piping Plover Charadrius melodus uses a variety of nesting habitats including natural river sandbars and human-created sites in the lower Platte River system, Nebraska. In this area, off-river sandpit sites (i.e., active sand and gravel mines, transition sites, and lakeshore housing developments) are not managed to prioritize nesting and are often considered inferior habitat to sandbars. However, most Piping Plovers in the lower Platte River system nest off river, especially in years when sandbar habitat is limited. As the quantity of habitat provided at off-river sites is predicted to decline, evaluating vital rates among different off-river nesting habitats will inform future conservation efforts. We estimated annual survival and fidelity of adult (n = 165) and hatch-year (n = 671) Piping Plovers from 2008 to 2018 and within-season weekly survival of breeding adults (n = 271) from 2011 to 2024. Annual adult survival was 0.771 (95% CI = 0.733–0.804) and hatch-year survival was 0.394 (0.335–0.456). Fidelity to the study area was 0.737 (0.634–0.819) for adults and 0.261 (0.192–0.345) for hatch-years. Within-season apparent weekly survival was higher for Piping Plovers at lakeshore housing developments (0.946 [85% CI = 0.917–0.965]) than sand and gravel mines (0.909 [0.874–0.935]) and transition sites (0.881 [0.834–0.928]). Annual survival of adult and hatch-year birds were comparable to other studies and regions within the Northern Great Plains population, indicating no negative consequence of off-river nesting to survival. Considering that off-river habitats are important for the persistence of Piping Plovers in the lower Platte River system, continued monitoring of survival could help managers evaluate recovery implications under uncertain future habitat availability in the region.

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USGS2025

Too hot for comfort: Elevated temperatures influence gene expression and exceed thermal tolerance of bigmouth shiners, Ericymba dorsalis

Environmental and associated ecosystem change may affect the persistence of fish species based on their ability to adapt to changing conditions, including decreasing flows and rising water temperatures. Exceeding the thermal tolerances of stream fish will likely result in a loss of ability to maintain metabolic processes. We evaluated the critical thermal maximum (CTmax) of bigmouth shiner ( Ericymba dorsalis ) and analysed the expression of heat shock protein 70 messenger RNA (mRNA) (HSP70) to quantify a thermal stress response over a gradient of temperatures (25°C–31°C). E. dorsalis HSP70 mRNA expression was upregulated in response to temperatures >25°C, indicating a stress response. This study supports the existence of a thermal stress threshold for E. dorsalis . The frequency at which this threshold is exceeded may increase under forecasted future climate scenarios for Nebraska.

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USGS2025

Valuing recreational fishing using creel survey statistics

Recreation demand analysis has relied on mail and internet surveys to collect information on individual recreators. However, conducting these surveys is costly and time-consuming. Alternative sources that report aggregate visitation may go unused due to a lack of information about trip starting points. We set up and solve a system of equations that predict reservoir visits and the home locations of recreational anglers. Using mode-level effort statistics from Nebraska creel surveys, we separate the effects of travel cost and site attributes between bank and boat anglers, which allows us to measure heterogenous values for public reservoir access.

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USGS2025

Ecological scenarios: Embracing ecological uncertainty in an era of global change

Scenarios, or plausible characterizations of the future, can help natural resource stewards plan and act under uncertainty. Current methods for developing scenarios for climate change adaptation planning are often focused on exploring uncertainties in future climate, but new approaches are needed to better represent uncertainties in ecological responses. Scenarios that characterize how ecological changes may unfold in response to climate and describe divergent and surprising ecological outcomes can help natural resource stewards recognize signs of nascent ecological transformation and identify opportunities to intervene. Here, we offer principles and approaches for more fully integrating ecological uncertainties into the development of future scenarios. We provide examples of how specific qualitative and quantitative methods can be used to explore variation in ecological responses to a given climate future. We further highlight opportunities for ecological researchers to generate actionable projections that capture uncertainty in both climatic and ecological change in meaningful and manageable ways to support climate change adaptation decision making.

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USGS2025

Flood-inundation maps for 14.8 miles of Little and Big Papillion Creeks in Omaha, Nebraska, 2023

Digital flood-inundation map libraries for two reaches that constitute 14.8 miles of Little and Big Papillion Creeks in Omaha, Nebraska, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Papio-Missouri River Natural Resource District. The flood-inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Program website at https://www.usgs.gov/mission-areas/water-resources/science/flood-inundation-mapping-fim-program , depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at Little Papillion Creek at Irvington, Nebr. (USGS station 06610750), Little Papillion Creek at Ak-Sar-Ben at Omaha, Nebr. (USGS station 06610765), and Big Papillion Creek at Q Street at Omaha, Nebr. (USGS station 06610770) streamgages. Near-real-time stages at these streamgages may be obtained from the USGS National Water Information System database at https://doi.org/10.5066/F7P55KJN or from the National Weather Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at https://water.weather.gov/ahps/ . Flood profiles were computed for two different reaches that constitute 14.8 miles of stream length in the study area by using hydraulic models. The models were calibrated by adjusting roughness coefficients to best represent the current (2022) stage-streamflow relation at the streamgages within the study reach. The hydraulic models were then used to compute water-surface profiles at 1-foot stage intervals for selected stage ranges to represent various flooding scenarios at the streamgages in each reach. The simulated water-surface profiles then were combined with a digital elevation model using a geographic information system, which had a 10-foot grid spacing to delineate the flooding extents and water depths for each stage. The availability of these flood-inundation maps, along with information regarding current stage from the USGS streamgages, can provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities and post flood recovery efforts.

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USGS2025

High-intensity fire supports restoration of grassland species richness and community composition following woody encroachment

Woody encroachment has driven drastic declines in grassland biodiversity and productivity. In the U.S. Great Plains, high-intensity prescribed fire is increasingly being used to shift encroaching redcedar woodlands to a grassland state. High-intensity fire treatments drive redcedar mortality and increase herbaceous biomass. However, it is unclear how grassland community composition recovers following stand-consuming fire. We contrast herbaceous community composition, basal cover, and species richness in woodlands treated with stand-consuming high-intensity fire to reference grassland and woodland sites to examine whether high-intensity fires facilitate restoration of grassland communities. To determine the long-term outcomes of high-intensity fire treatments, we use a space-for-time substitute to measure changes to herbaceous community and species richness over a time-since-fire gradient of 17 years. We found that herbaceous cover and species richness increased substantially in woodlands treated with stand-consuming high-intensity fire compared to unburned woodlands, and that these values were similar to those observed in both burned and unburned grasslands. Herbaceous community composition in woodlands treated with high-intensity fire also shifted towards grasslands, though some legacies of woodland communities persisted. Time-since-fire generally did not have a large influence on total herbaceous cover or species richness through time, though grass cover decreased in woodlands treated with high-intensity fire a decade post-treatment. Our findings suggest that a single high-intensity fire can support the restoration of herbaceous plant species richness and cover, and shift community composition to a grassland regime, though additional low-intensity fire treatments may be necessary to erode legacies from the encroached state.

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USGS2025

Tapwater-contaminant mixtures and risk in a biofuel-facility impacted private-well community

We assessed private-well drinking water (DW) at the point of use ( i.e. , tapwater, TW) within a rural Nebraska community around a state-closed biofuel facility, which used pesticide-treated corn seed as feedstock for ethanol production. Organic (485), inorganic (34), and microbial (13) analytes were assessed at 15 locations in June 2022, to evaluate the relative contribution of facility-consistent pesticides (seed-treatment fungicides and insecticides) to overall TW-contaminant exposures and predicted human-health risks. Thirty-three organics (12 pesticides) and 28 inorganics were detected, the former including the fungicide sedaxane, insecticide chlorantraniliprole, and multiple neonicotinoid insecticides/degradates, all consistent with seed treatment and respective biofuel-facility waste. Assessment of pesticides only at extant point-of-use (POU) treatment taps at three sites demonstrated complete elimination of all TW-pesticide detections. Based on detection of maximum pesticide concentrations in a home located downstream along a creek capturing facility runoff, pesticides only were assessed in January 2023 again at this home and at three adjacent locations, confirming results at the former and documenting decreasing TW-pesticide concentrations, including neonicotinoids, with increasing distance from the creek. Human-health DW benchmarks are not available for many detected pesticides, including the detected fungicide and insecticides, but precautionary screening levels were exceeded frequently due to multiple inorganics. The results indicate that exposures to multiple (median: 4.5; range: 1–7) co-occurring TW contaminants of potential human-health concern are common, warranting consideration of point-of-entry or POU treatment(s) throughout the community to reduce or eliminate unrecognized exposures to TW contaminants, including facility-associated pesticides in down-gradient locations. More broadly, results emphasize the importance of continued characterization of private-TW exposures, employing a environmentally informative analytical scope, to identify and mitigate risks of unrecognized exposures in private-well-dependent rural communities.

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USGS2025

Effects of nest exclosure on nest and adult survival of piping plover (Charadrius melodus) in the lower Platte River System, Nebraska

Conservation of imperiled species often includes management strategies intended to improve specific vital rates. However, some management practices can have unforeseen consequences that negate the intended benefit. For example, nest exclosures are often used for ground-nesting avian species to reduce nest predation but may increase depredation of adults. Tradeoffs between nest survival and adult mortality of nest exclosures likely depend on local predator community dynamics. Therefore, investigations are most informative when assessed in specific settings. Piping Plovers ( Charadrius melodus , hereafter plovers) in the lower Platte River system, Nebraska, nest at off-river sandpit sites, which provide an additional study system and habitat to assess the context-dependent effects of nest exclosures. The Tern and Plover Conservation Partnership monitors plovers at off-river sites by monitoring nests, installing nest exclosures, and banding and resighting. Effects of nest exclosures were tested on both nest survival, from 340 plover nests from 2008–2024, and weekly within-season apparent survival, from 71 breeding adults from 2011–2024. There was weak evidence that nest exclosures marginally improved nest survival but no evidence of an effect for within-season survival of breeding adults. Daily nest survival was slightly higher for exclosed nests (0.99, [85% CI = 0.98–0.99]) than unexclosed nests (0.98, [0.98–0.99]). Within-season apparent weekly survival for breeding plovers was 0.90 (95% CI = 0.83–0.93); cumulative survival over the breeding period was 0.51 (0.33–0.69). Nest exclosures may be used to increase nest survival at off-river sites with minimal threat to adult survival unless considerable concerns arise.

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USGS2025

Ecosystems

The Fifth National Climate Assessment updates the evidence regarding how climate change influences ecosystems, biological diversity, and the implications for changes to critical ecosystem services—as noted in the key messages above (McElwee et al., 2023). Large-scale transformational changes to ecosystems are occurring, including—but not limited to—land-use conversion, hydrological alteration, and fire regimes. Implications of such transformational change include ecosystem capacity to maintain biological diversity and ecosystem services, impacting recreational opportunities (e.g., hunting and fishing, birding, ecotourism) and agriculture production (McElwee et al., 2023). A central tenet of the Fifth National Climate Assessment regarding ecosystems was the shifts to alternative states and how the Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) framework may guide the adaptive management of ecosystems moving forward (Lynch et al., 2022). Nebraska is in the northern Great Plains, where extremes in climate and resulting ecosystem processes are experienced (Knapp et al., 2023). Pressures on ecosystems to provide essential services, including healthy soil and water to benefit humans and animals, will inevitably impact economic development, urban and rural communities, and fish and wildlife populations as climate change continues (Knapp et al., 2023). All ecosystems will be impacted in Nebraska, but aquatic systems—wetlands, aquifers, lakes, streams, and rivers—may be most impacted, given the scarcity of water as human demand (i.e., agriculture and a growing population) persists and increases (Bathke et al., 2014). Major knowledge gaps remain regarding how fish and wildlife populations will persist in changing environments. Past changes, including large-scale land conversion, water delivery systems, and water storage (construction of reservoirs), suggest that some species can adapt to novel environments and shift distributions. However, many more species may be maladapted to the expected changes in climate. Species may be unable to move to suitable habitats, and biological constraints under rapidly changing conditions may impede adaptation— resulting in extirpation and potential extinction. Further, changing conditions open multiple pathways for invasive species and novel diseases, impacting native fish populations, wildlife populations, and human health.

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