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Research about Michigan

Source-linked reports with geographic coverage including Michigan.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources
USGS2023

Model-based assessment and mapping of total phosphorus enrichment in rivers with sparse reference data

Water nutrient management efforts are frequently coordinated across thousands of water bodies, leading to a need for spatially extensive information to facilitate decision making. Here we explore potential applications of a machine learning model of river low-flow total phosphorus (TP) concentrations to support landscape nutrient management. The model was trained, validated, and then applied for all rivers of Michigan, USA to identify potential drivers of nutrient variation, predict alteration in nutrient concentrations from minimally disturbed conditions, and explore reach specific sensitivity to riparian agricultural change. A boosted regression tree model of low-flow TP concentrations trained on natural and anthropogenic landscape predictors accounted for 53 % of variation in cross-validation data, had good accuracy, little bias, and plausible relationships between predictors and response. Percent riparian agricultural cover accounted for the greatest root mean square error reduction in the modeled response (33.2 %), followed by riparian soil permeability (12.9 %), watershed slope (9.6 %), and percent urban cover (9.6 %). An apparent non-linear relationship between TP concentrations and percent riparian agricultural cover suggested steep positive increases in stream TP concentrations between 10 and 30 % upstream riparian agricultural cover. Predicted minimally disturbed TP concentrations were spatially variable and ranged from 7.0 to 48.5 μg l −1 , with the highest concentrations in watersheds draining low-permeability lake plain soils. Comparison of minimally disturbed predictions to those from the early 2000s suggested that much of northern Michigan existed close to the reference condition, while lower Michigan streams were often substantially enriched. Our predicted values of minimally disturbed condition generally agree with previous studies but offer greater geographic specificity. Expanded application of machine learning modeling with landscape predictor data have great potential to inform large scale strategy development in landscapes with sparse reference data.

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USGS2023

Laboratory and field comparisons of TFM bar formulations used to treat small streams for larval sea lamprey

A solid formulation of the pesticide TFM (4-nitro-3-(trifluoromethyl)-phenol) was developed in the 1980s for application in small tributaries during treatments to control invasive sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus Linnaeus, 1758). Several initial inert ingredients were discontinued and substituted, culminating with an interim formulation that unacceptably softens and rapidly decays in warm conditions. A new TFM bar formulation was developed to resolve poor thermal stability and it was registered with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and Health Canada Pesticide Management Regulatory Agency in 2020. Laboratory studies compared the thermostability and dissolution (i.e., TFM release) of the interim and new formulation of TFM bars that were held at 20 C or 45 C for 24 hours prior to evaluation. Field tests compared the dissolution of the interim and new formulation of TFM bars when applied in three small tributaries in Michigan. Laboratory tests show that the new formulation bars remain usable when held at 45 C for 24 hours; whereas, the interim formulation bars partially liquify and are not usable. Field tests indicate the new formulation bars have superior characteristics including a near consistent release of TFM for 1013 hours when applied in waters with a velocity of < 0.06 m/sec. A near consistent release of TFM was observed for a maximum of about 6 hours in one field application of the interim formulation bars. Water temperature and water velocity influenced both formulations; however, the greatest effects were observed with interim formulation bars where higher initial TFM concentrations were followed by precipitous TFM concentration decreases in tributaries with the highest water temperature or velocity. Field treatment applications will provide data for refining application parameters such as the number of bars required per unit discharge at various water temperatures and the acceptable water velocity range for applications.

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USGS2023

Comparing empirical sediment transport modeling approaches in Michigan rivers

Excess or limited fluvial sediment transport can contribute to and exacerbate many environmental issues including nutrient loading, aquatic habitat degradation, flooding, channel navigation dredging, dam operation, and stream degradation or aggradation. However, fluvial sediment transport is difficult and expensive to comprehensively characterize because it can vary substantially both temporally and spatially. Having better estimates of fluvial sediment transport is important for understanding and solving these environmental issues when it is not possible to collect fluvial sediment samples. Different modeling approaches can be used to help estimate suspended sediment when sampling data are limited or unavailable. This study compared dimensionless sediment rating curves (DSRCs) developed in Pagosa Springs Colorado, Minnesota, and Michigan to determine if these DSRCs were suitable to make predictions of suspended sediment for Michigan rivers. Approximately 3,000 suspended sediment samples collected in or near Michigan from the mid-1960s through August 2022 were used to develop two DSRC models. The DSRCs developed in Michigan include a pooled DSRC model which uses nonlinear least squares regression, and a mixed-effects DSRC model which uses a mixed-effects modeling approach. In general, there was not a noticeable improvement in the performance of the Michigan mixed-effects DSRC model over the Michigan pooled DSRC model. The two Michigan DSRCs were evaluated against DSRCs developed for Pagosa Springs and Minnesota. The results showed DSRC models developed from Minnesota and Michigan were similar to each other. In contrast, the Pagosa Springs DSRC predicts higher suspended-sediment concentration (SSC) at low flows and increases at a higher rate due to having a greater exponent. The Pagosa Springs DSRC produces higher SSC predictions that do not approximate the observed data well at most of the Michigan sites in the study. The results suggest that the Pagosa Springs DSRC was not suitable to make predictions of suspended sediment for Michigan rivers. The similarity of the DSRC equations developed for Minnesota and Michigan compared to the Pagosa Springs DSRC equation suggest that there may be regional patterns of SSC in the upper Midwest rivers that differ from those in other areas of the country like Pagosa Springs. A regionally applicable model could be developed and strengthened by combining data from additional midwestern states. Since the Michigan DSRCs goodness-of-fit metrics were comparable to the site-specific simple linear regressions (SLRs) and outperformed them in the aggregate goodness-of-fit metrics, the Michigan DSRCs are suitable to make predictions of suspended sediment in Michigan rivers with limited data. However, the availability of the DSRCs from this study should not diminish the value of collecting physical samples and exploring alternative modeling approaches because of the uncertainty associated with using DSRCs. Approximately 3,000 suspended sediment samples collected in or near Michigan from the mid-1960s through August 2022 were used to develop two DSRC models. The DSRCs developed in Michigan include a pooled DSRC model which uses nonlinear least squares regression, and a mixed-effects DSRC model which uses a mixed-effects modeling approach. In general, there was not a noticeable improvement in the performance of the Michigan mixed-effects DSRC model over the Michigan pooled DSRC model. The two Michigan DSRCs were evaluated against DSRCs developed for Pagosa Springs and Minnesota. The results showed DSRC models developed from Minnesota and Michigan were similar to each other. In contrast, the Pagosa Springs DSRC predicts higher suspended-sediment concentration (SSC) at low flows and increases at a higher rate due to having a greater exponent. The Pagosa Springs DSRC produces higher SSC predictions that do not approximate the observed data well at most of the Michigan sites in the study. The results suggest that the Pagosa Springs DSRC was not suitable to make predictions of suspended sediment for Michigan rivers. The similarity of the DSRC equations developed for Minnesota and Michigan compared to the Pagosa Springs DSRC equation suggest that there may be regional patterns of SSC in the upper Midwest rivers that differ from those in other areas of the country like Pagosa Springs. A regionally applicable model could be developed and strengthened by combining data from additional midwestern states. Since the Michigan DSRCs goodness-of-fit metrics were comparable to the site-specific simple linear regressions (SLRs) and outperformed them in the aggregate goodness-of-fit metrics, the Michigan DSRCs are suitable to make predictions of suspended sediment in Michigan rivers with limited data. However, the availability of the DSRCs from this study should not diminish the value of collecting physical samples and exploring alternative modeling approaches because of the uncertainty associated with using DSRCs.

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USGS2023

Repeat bathymetric surveys and model simulation of sedimentation processes near fish spawning placements, Detroit and St. Clair Rivers, Michigan

Nine rock-rubble fish spawning placements, or artificial reef complexes, constructed in the Detroit and St. Clair Rivers between 2004 to 2018 were surveyed periodically with multibeam sonar. These serial bathymetric surveys, conducted in 2015, 2018, 2021, and 2022, identified active sand bedform fields impinging two reef complexes: Fighting Island in the Detroit River and Middle Channel in the St. Clair River delta. The spatial extent over which the bedforms interacted with these reef complexes differed. The Fighting Island reef complex, which was comprised of twelve reef beds oriented across the river channel, experienced partial sedimentation that can be attributed to the streamwise translation and lateral encroachment of a bedform field on several of the eastern reef beds. The Middle Channel reef complex was comprised of nine reef beds also oriented across the river channel. Sedimentation of the Middle Channel reef complex was more comprehensive compared to the Fighting Island reef complex as most of the beds in the Middle Channel reef complex were within a translating bedform field. We simulated the temporal evolution of reef sedimentation at the Middle Channel reef complex using the Wilcock-Kenworthy (WK) two-fraction sediment transport model. In the WK simulation, sand available upstream of the reef migrated into the 36-meter-long gravel reef beds over 10 days of model simulation. The rate of sediment infill predicted by the model was more rapid than the speed of bedform slip face translation measured in the field, approximately 0.3 meters per day. Further, as the supply of sediment from upstream is continuous, once a reef bed fills with sediment it generally remains in place, although some small variations (+/- 0.2 m) in the elevation of the sand overlying the reef beds were observed. Taken together, bathymetric surveys and modeling could be used to identify, monitor, and simulate potential sources of bedload sediment that could impair the longevity of future spawning reef placements. Efforts directed toward enhancement and/or maintenance of reefs impaired by sedimentation could benefit from continued monitoring through periodic high-resolution bathymetric surveys, detailed inspection by diving, and collection of underwater imagery.

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USGS2023

FishPass baseline assessment of fish community assemblage and migratory patterns in in the Boardman River, Traverse City, Michigan, USA

This report on baseline assessment of fish community assemblage and migratory patterns of fishes in the lower Boardman River (LBR; Traverse City, MI (USA)) is one of four assessment projects conceived circa 2017 after the Boardman (Ottaway) River was selected by the Great Lakes Fishery Commission (GLFC) and collaborating agencies as the future site of the Selective Bi-directional Fish Passage (FishPass) project. This report describes the results from fisheries community sampling from 2017-2021 and the concurrent bio-telemetry project aimed at understanding phenological changes in the fish community and movement and space-use of a variety of large-bodied fishes in the LBR against which selective fish passage treatments will be developed and evaluated. Fish migration in riverine environments is a growing area of concern as mounting anthropogenic influences, particularly fragmentation from dams and barriers, constitute a major threat to global river species diversity. Specifically, In the Laurentian Great Lakes basin, more than 250,000 dams, weirs, culverts, and other significant obstructions prevent the movement of species both between the Great Lakes and rivers, and within rivers. Barriers impede the movement of fishes between areas critical to the completion of their lifecycle, affecting both population and ecosystem viability. However, a conundrum arises in that the same barriers can also prevent the upstream invasion of non-native or undesirable species (most notably the sea lamprey Petromyzon marinus in the Great Lakes),prevent the transfer of contaminants and diseases, halt deleterious genes, provide recreational opportunities, or generate power. As a result, fish passage solutions with the capability of selectively passing desirable taxa while restricting the dispersal of undesirable taxa (selective connectivity) are sought to solve this connectivity conundrum. FishPass is a multi-agency initiative planned to replace the Union Street Dam on the Boardman River in Traverse City,MI (USA), aimed at developing and implementing automatic or semiautomatic selective bi-directional fish guidance, sorting, and passage techniques and technologies. Pivotal to both the successful development of selective connectivity and assessment of its effects is a more complete understanding of the Boardman River’s fishery. Specifically, understanding the species and size composition of the fish community, fish movement phenology and the associated abiotic conditions. Fish community sampling confirmed the presence of 28 unique species in the LBR (Boardman River reach below Union Street Dam). Passive Integrated Transponder (PIT) tag telemetry increased the resolution of phenological shifts in the fish community that could not have been captured from periodic fish sampling. This data demonstrates large variation within species and overlap between species presence. However, discrete periods of presence were identified across most species when considering the central tendencies in the distribution of their presence. Rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss were found to be omni-present in the river while brown trout Salmo trutta and smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu also persisted throughout a majority of the year; all of which will require continually sorting at FishPass. PIT tag telemetry also provided the important understanding that individuals (3-64%) of all species return to the LBR across multiple years. Radio telemetry (RT) proved useful in refining the entry and exit timing and in evaluating the proportion of individuals that encountered the current Union Street Dam and Kid’s Creek (the only tributary confluence below the Union Street Dam) across six species (common white sucker Catostomus commersonii, rainbow trout, smallmouth bass, walleye Sander vitreus, brown trout, and common carp Cyprinus carpio). The RT results show that these species are present in FishPass Research Publication: baseline assessment of fish community assemblage and migratory pattern in the Boardman River, Traverse City, Michigan, USA November 2023 7 between April and August. Our analysis also demonstrated that not all fish that entered the river proceeded to the Union Street Dam, but those that did, did so prior to being detected encountering Kid’s Creek. Common white sucker and rainbow trout were the only species to be detected encountering Kid’s Creek. Collectively, the results of this study provide a baseline understanding of the seasonal fish diversity and relative abundance of fishes in the LBR, and a basic description of observed movement patterns of a subset of species in the context of seasonal phenology, entry and exit behavior within the LBR, and the propensity at which telemetered individuals encounter the Union Street dam and/or Kid’s Creek.

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USGS2023

Geophysical mapping of the Great Lakes Tectonic Zone and surrounding Precambrian geology in the central Upper Peninsula, Michigan

The Great Lakes Tectonic Zone (GLTZ) forms the boundary between the Wawa-Abitibi subprovince (north side) and Minnesota River Valley subprovince (south side) within the Archean Superior Province. The GLTZ is concealed for all of its 1100 km length, except south of Marquette in the central Upper Peninsula of Michigan (Sims, 1991; Sims and Day, 1993). Near KI Sawyer, it is exposed as a NW-striking, 2.3 km wide mylonite zone along a strike length of about 11 km, with a mylonitic foliation that dips steeply to the SW (Sims, 1993). The location extent of the GLTZ is unknown to the east where it is concealed beneath Paleozoic sedimentary rocks. We use legacy aeromagnetic data (Daniels et al., 2009) in combination with modern aeromagnetic data (Drenth and Brown, 2020) and ground gravity data to geophysically characterize the GLTZ and map its eastward extent under cover and map additional nearby covered Precambrian tectonic elements.

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USGS2022

Analysis of groundwater and surface water in areas of isoxaflutole application, Tuscola and Kalamazoo Counties, Michigan

The herbicide 5-cyclopropyl-4-(2-methylsulfonyl-4-trifluoromethylbenzoyl) isoxazole, also known as isoxaflutole (IXF), was conditionally approved for use on corn in Michigan in 2015. The fate of IXF and its degradates in different environmental settings and the processes by which these compounds move to groundwater or to surface-water bodies have been previously studied, but little information about possible persistence and buildup of this herbicide and its degradates in Michigan’s groundwater and surface water is available. Therefore, from 2015 to 2020, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Michigan Department of Agriculture and Rural Development, studied IXF and two of its degradates in two locations where IXF was applied. IXF and its degradates were rarely detected in shallow groundwater downgradient from IXF applications. In contrast, one or more of the three target IXF compounds were detected in 40 percent of surface-water samples. The degradates 1-(2-methylsulfonyl-4-trifluoromethylphenyl)-2-cyano-3-cyclopropyl propan-1-dione), also known as diketonitrile isoxaflutole (DKN), and 2-methylsulfonyl-4-(trifluoromethyl) benzoic acid (BAA), the benzoic acid analogue of IXF, were detected more frequently than the parent compound. At surface-water sites, DKN and BAA reached maximum concentrations within about the first 5 weeks after IXF application after rainfall-runoff events. Concentrations subsequent to post-application maxima decreased through time approximately following first-order, exponential loss kinetics. Carryover of DKN and BAA, from an application year to the following spring, occurred at several surface-water sites, and springtime concentrations were typically 1–5 percent of maximum, post-application concentrations. Virtually no detections were recorded later in the growing season during non-application years. Results indicate rapid loss of IXF and very few detections of the parent compound from the study areas. The degradates DKN and BAA were more frequently detected in surface runoff up to about 1 year after IXF application, but no evidence of longer-term accumulation was found.

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USGS2022

Field application of carbon dioxide as a behavioral control method for invasive red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii) in southeastern Michigan water retention ponds

This study evaluated carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) injected into water as a possible behavioral stimulant to enhance capture and removal of invasive red swamp crayfish (RSC, Procambarus clarkii [Girard, 1852]) from a retention pond in southeastern Michigan. Objectives of this study were (1) to determine if target CO 2 concentrations were attainable within the infested pond and (2) to determine if CO 2 treatment was effective to push RSC either towards shorelines or onto dry land, where they could be collected and removed. Carbon dioxide was applied directly into one treatment pond (about [~]2,500 cubic meters) in Novi, Michigan. Two nearby ponds in Livonia, Mich., were used as untreated control ponds. Crayfish removal efficiency was evaluated in all ponds using baited traps and shoreline surveys. Results showed that the CO 2 treatment pond reached its target concentration of greater than (>) 200 milligrams per liter (mg/L) of CO 2 , a benchmark determined from previous laboratory studies, approximately 11 hours after injection started, and maintained concentrations between 200 and 351 mg/L of CO 2 for about 2.5 days. During treatment, some emergent crayfish were observed near influent culverts around the pond, which possibly brought about a behavioral response. However, the number of individuals and crayfish observations were minimal and infrequent. Crayfish continued to be removed throughout CO 2 treatment with baited traps and perimeter surveys, but differences in catch rates between the treatment and control ponds were not apparent and confounded by a temporal decline in catch rates across all ponds. Overall, this study demonstrated that open-water treatment applications with CO 2 are possible, but its effectiveness to enhance RSC removal was unclear because of the limited crayfish observations.

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USGS2022

The Grand Caddis hatch of JASM 2022: Trichoptera natural history observations at the Joint Aquatic Sciences Meeting in Grand Rapids, Michigan (USA)

In a stroke of good luck for aquatic scientists and insect enthusiasts, the May 2022 Joint Aquatic Sciences Meeting (JASM) in Grand Rapids, Michigan coincided with a spectacular hatch of hydropsychid caddisflies. To estimate density, we enumerated caddisflies on 12 polarized window panels on the western face of the DeVos Place, which faced the Grand River. We found an average of 57.8 caddisflies per 2.0 × 2.3 m window panel (density of 12.6 caddisflies m −2 ). We observed American robins, swallows, sparrows, and jumping spiders preying and scavenging during the hatch. We also describe here our observations of a novel precopulatory behavior in the species Hydropsyche morosa , which we describe as a “head-to-tail” position. We discuss our natural history observations and share thoughts on how conferences can be a springboard for networking and collaborative science, natural history-focused or otherwise.

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USGS2022

A computer-aided approach for adapting stage-discharge ratings and characterizing uncertainties of streamflow data with discrete measurements

Relations between stage (water level) and discharge of streamflow through a natural channel are the result of time-varying processes, which are commonly described by time-varying stage-discharge ratings. Hydrographers with the U.S. Geological Survey successfully maintain the accuracy of streamflow data by manually applying time-tested approaches to adapt ratings to temporal changes in hydraulic conditions. The difficulty with the manual approach is that it is a subjective, time-consuming process that requires considerable skill and experience to implement. In addition, manual adjustments of ratings make quantification of resulting streamflow data uncertainties problematic. A computer-aided adaptive stage-discharge estimation approach is proposed to track sequential changes in the relation between stage and discharge at continuous-record streamgages. In this report, adaptations are based strictly on discrete measurement data that are then used to compute the magnitudes and uncertainties of streamflow. The approach entails the parameterization of a cubic regression spline (CRS) for the stage-discharge relation based on an existing rating or on a set of discrete measurements. A state-space model is then parameterized to track temporal changes in stage-discharge relations beginning with the initial CRS parameterization using discrete measurements. Finally, Kalman estimation is used with the state-space model to estimate the magnitude and uncertainty of flows. In a case study using data from streamgage U.S. Geological Survey 04122500 Marquette River at Scottville, Michigan, a five-parameter CRS model was estimated from data in an existing stage-discharge rating to provide an initial CRS parameter set for a state-space model. The initial CRS parameters were updated sequentially in a state-space model based on periodic discrete measurements of stage and discharge that spanned a 30-year period for this analysis. Additional analysis is needed to determine the timing of rapidly varying shifts more precisely in stage-discharge relations than the relatively infrequent discrete measurements currently enabled. Unit streamflow estimates based on flow in a local streamgaging network may provide a basis for adapting a stage-discharge rating at unit time intervals by augmenting discrete measurement data within the state-space model.

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USGS2022

Test of a screw-style fish lift for introducing migratory fish into a selective fish passage device

Barriers are an effective mechanism for managing invasive species like sea lamprey in the Lau-rentian Great Lakes, but are detrimental because they limit the migration of desirable, native species. Fish passage technologies that selectively pass desirable species while blocking unde-sirable species are needed. Optical sorting tools combined with newly developed computer learning algorithms could be used to identify invasive species from high resolution imagery and potentially isolate them from an assortment of Great Lakes fishes. Many existing barriers lack fishways and optical sorting may require fish to be dewatered for image capture. The Archimedes screw, a device originating from 234 BC, offers the potential to continuously lift fish and water over low-head barriers or into an optical sorting device. To test the efficacy of an Archimedes screw fish lift to capture and pass Great Lakes fishes, we built a field-scale prototype and installed it at the Cheboygan Dam, Michigan USA in 2021. The fish lift safely transported 704 fish (688 of which were suckers) in 11 days. Passage of suckers through the fish lift increased with water temperature and attraction flow. There were no observed injuries in transported fish or mortalities in a subset of suckers held post-transport.

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USGS2022

Remote sensing application for landslide detection, monitoring along eastern Lake Michigan (Miami Park, MI)

We assessed the nature and spatial and temporal patterns of deformation over the Miami Park bluffs on the eastern margin of Lake Michigan and investigated the factors controlling its observed deformation. Our approach involved the following steps: (1) extracting bluff deformation rates (velocities along the line of sight of the satellite) using a stack of Sentinel-1A radar imagery in ascending acquisition geometry acquired between 2017 and 2021 and applying the Intermittent Small Baseline Subset (ISBAS) InSAR time series analysis method; (2) generating high-resolution (5 cm) elevation models and orthophotos from temporal unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) surveys acquired in 2017, 2019, and 2021; and (3) comparing the temporal variations in mass wasting events to other relevant datasets including the ISBAS-based bluff deformation time series, lake level (LL) variations, and local glacial stratigraphy. We identified areas witnessing high line-of-sight (LOS) deformation rates (up to −21 mm/year) along the bluff from the ISBAS analysis and seasonal deformation patterns associated with freeze-thaw cycles, suggesting a causal effect. The acceleration of slope failures detected from field and UAV acquisitions correlated with high LLs and intensified onshore wave energy in 2020. The adopted methodology successfully predicts landslides caused by freezes and thaws of the slope face by identifying prolonged slow deformation preceding slope failures, but it does not predict the catastrophic landslides preceded by short-lived LOS deformation related to LL rise.

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USGS2022

Extent of sedge-grass meadow in a Lake Michigan drowned river mouth wetland dictated by topography and lake level

Water-level fluctuations are critical in maintaining diversity of plant communities in Great Lakes wetlands. Sedge-grass meadows are especially sensitive to such fluctuations. We conducted vegetation sampling in a sedge-grass dominated Lake Michigan drowned river mouth wetland in 1995, 2002, and 2010 following high lake levels in 1986 and 1997. We also conducted photointerpretation studies in 16 years dating back to 1965 to include responses to high lake levels in 1952 and 1974. Topographic data were collected to assess their influence on areal extent of sedge-grass meadow. Dominant species in short emergent and submersed/floating plant communities changed with water availability from 1995 to extreme low lake levels in 2002 and 2010. Sedge-grass meadow was dominated by Calamagrostis canadensis and Carex stricta in all years sampled, but Importance Values differed among years partly due to sampling in newly exposed areas. Photointerpretation studies showed a significant relation between percent of wetland in sedge-grass meadow and summer lake level, as well as the number of years since an extreme high lake level. From the topographic map created, we calculated the cumulative area above each 0.2-m contour to determine the percent of wetland dewatered in select years following extreme high lake levels. When compared with percent sedge-grass meadow in those years, relative changes in both predicted land surface and sedge-grass meadow demonstrated that accuracy of lake level as a predictor of area of sedge-grass meadow is dependent on topography. Our results regarding relations of plant-community response to hydrology are applicable to other Great Lakes wetlands.

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USGS2022

Pedigree analysis and estimates of effective breeding size characterize sea lamprey reproductive biology

The sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) is an invasive species in the Great Lakes and the focus of a large control and assessment program. Current assessment methods provide information on the census size of spawning adult sea lamprey in a small number of streams, but information characterizing reproductive success of spawning adults is rarely available. We used RAD-capture sequencing to genotype single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) loci for ~1600 sea lamprey larvae collected from three streams in northern Michigan (Black Mallard, Pigeon, and Ocqueoc Rivers). Larval genotypes were used to reconstruct family pedigrees, which were combined with Gaussian mixture analyses to identify larval age classes for estimation of spawning population size. Two complementary estimates of effective breeding size ( N b ), as well as the extrapolated minimum number of spawners ( N s ), were also generated for each cohort. Reconstructed pedigrees highlighted inaccuracies of cohort assignments from traditionally used mixture analyses. However, combining genotype-based pedigree information with length-at-age assignment of cohort membership greatly improved cohort identification accuracy. Population estimates across all three streams sampled in this study indicate a small number of successfully spawning adults when barriers were in operation, implying that barriers limited adult spawning numbers but were not completely effective at blocking access to spawning habitats. Thus, the large numbers of larvae present in sampled systems were a poor indicator of spawning adult abundance. Overall, pedigree-based N b and N s estimates provide a promising and rapid assessment tool for sea lamprey and other species.

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USGS2022

FluOil: A novel tool for modeling the transport of oil-particle aggregates in inland waterways

Spilled oil in inland waterways can aggregate with mineral and organic particles to form oil-particle aggregates (OPAs). OPAs can be transported in suspension or deposited to the bed. Modeling the fate and transport of OPAs can provide useful information for making mitigation decisions. A novel open-source tool, FluOil, is developed to predict where OPAs may deposit and when they arrive in affected river/lake reaches by implementing the random walk particle tracking algorithm to represent the advection, diffusion, deposition, and resuspension of OPAs. The usability of FluOil is demonstrated with the 2010 Kalamazoo River oil spill case study. An unsteady hydrodynamic model simulates the river hydraulics and provides hydraulic data for use in FluOil. Settling velocity and critical shear stress for resuspension are the most important OPA properties concerning the transport and deposition of OPAs. Settling velocity determines the vertical distribution of OPAs and, thus, the travel speed, whereas critical shear stress determines where and when OPAs are deposited and resuspended.

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USGS2022

A landscape approach for identifying potential reestablishment sites for extirpated stream fishes: an example with Arctic grayling (Thymallus arcticus) in Michigan

Habitat degradation combined with climate change increases the threat of extinction for stream fishes. In response to these threats, efforts to reestablish species within formerly occupied streams or translocation to suitable areas may be effective conservation strategies. In the absence of historic species presence data, identifying locations where suitable habitat exists across many fluvial habitats may limit the effectiveness of reestablishments. We present an approach that ranks habitat for stream fish reestablishment over large areas using best available information. Using the locally extirpated Arctic grayling ( Thymallus arcticus ) in Michigan, USA as an example, we integrate information on species preferences and relationships between species with similar habitat requirements and landscape predictors of habitat to rank stream suitability. We find that unfragmented streams throughout the historical range of Arctic grayling and areas previously unoccupied by the species are potential locations for conservation action. However, we note that projected increases in summer water temperatures may reduce the amount of thermally suitable habitat in some top-ranked locations by up to 30%. Given its inherent flexibility in data requirements, our landscape-level approach may be a valuable tool that supports planning for species reestablishment.

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USGS2022

Identifying and characterizing juvenile lake sturgeon (Acipenser fulvescens, Rafinesque, 1817) occupancy hot spots within the St. Clair-Detroit River System

Over the past two decades, extensive monitoring has been conducted in the St. Clair – Detroit River System to describe spatial and temporal patterns of lake sturgeon ( Acipenser fulvescens ). To characterize spatial patterns in juvenile lake sturgeon (<1000 mm TL) based on survey collections, ‘hot spots’ were identified through optimized hot spot analysis (HSA). This HSA was then interpolated by inverse distance weighted analysis to determine extent of identified ‘hot spots’ and ‘cold spots’. Additionally, habitat variables (i.e., water depth, water velocity, and dominant substrate type) were investigated using a single season occupancy model to determine their influence on juvenile lake sturgeon occupancy probability. In total, 1203 juvenile lake sturgeon were captured across 4197 surveys. Three unique ‘hot spots’ were identified; western Lake Erie, Fighting Island in the Detroit River, and the North Channel in the St. Clair River. Interpolated ‘hot spots’ encompassed 73.1 km² in western Lake Erie, 4.7 km² near Fighting Island, and 6.6 km² in the North Channel. Detection probabilities within ‘hot spots’ ranged from 8.8%–43.4%. No habitat variables significantly predicted juvenile lake sturgeon occupancy. Juvenile lake sturgeon were captured in western Lake Erie where the water depth was >5.1 m and odds of occupancy increased with increased water velocity. Juvenile lake sturgeon in the Detroit and St. Clair River ‘hot spots’ were captured at sites with mean benthic water velocities ranging from 0.20–0.60 m/s and where water depth was >7.3 m. Irrespective of waterbody, 69% of all juveniles were detected over dominant sand and gravel substrates. These results provide valuable insight about juvenile habitat use that can help managers formulate effective conservation and restoration strategies supporting the continued recovery of Great Lakes lake sturgeon.

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