Geology topics

Research about Manitoba, North Dakota, Saskatchewan

Source-linked reports with geographic coverage including Manitoba, North Dakota, Saskatchewan.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2023

Comprehensive water-quality trend analysis for selected sites and constituents in the International Souris River Basin, Saskatchewan and Manitoba, Canada, and North Dakota, United States, 1970–2020

The Souris River Basin is an international basin in southeast Saskatchewan, north-central North Dakota, and southwest Manitoba. Sustained exceedances of water-quality objectives for total phosphorus, sodium, sulfate, total dissolved solids, and total iron have been reported since the late 1990s at the two binational sites on the Souris River (Souris River near Sherwood, North Dakota [U.S. Geological Survey station 05114000] and Souris River near Westhope, N. Dak. [U.S. Geological Survey station 05124000]). To understand conditions at the binational sites, it is important to understand water-quality changes on a basin-wide scale. Because streamflow is highly variable in the basin and changes in streamflow affect water-quality conditions, it is particularly important to use a trend-analysis method that accounts for changes in streamflow. Trends in water-quality concentrations can be affected by human-induced changes on the landscape or natural changes in land-runoff interactions that are driven by climate patterns and reflected by changes in streamflow (commonly referred to as “hydroclimatic variability”). In the primarily agricultural Souris River Basin, human-induced changes that are likely to affect trends are widespread changes in agricultural management such as fertilizer application, tilling practices, and crop types, as well as dam emplacement and artificial drainage. Around 1970, there was a long-term natural (hydroclimatic) change in the basin in which a significant transition from a dry climate state to a wet climate state resulted in higher streamflow in the basin. To assist the International Souris River Board in assessing current water-quality conditions in the Souris River Basin and exceedances of water-quality objectives at the binational sites, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the International Joint Commission, completed a comprehensive analysis for selected ions, nutrients, and trace metals for many sites in the basin that included descriptive water-quality statistics, trend analysis using a trend method that considers interannual hydroclimatic variability, and an assessment of exceedances of the water-quality objectives for the binational sites. Water-quality and streamflow or reservoir inflow or outflow data were compiled for 34 sites (30 stream sites and four reservoir sites) and 23 constituents with established water-quality objectives from 1970 to 2020 in the Souris River Basin and were used for descriptive statistics and water-quality trend analysis. Median total dissolved solids, sulfate, and sodium concentrations were low in the headwaters of the Souris River and some of the highest median concentrations were measured in the upper basin. At main-stem Souris River sites, all median sodium concentrations were greater than the binational water-quality objective. Median total phosphorus concentrations in the Souris River Basin were highest in the headwaters of the Souris River and all sites had median concentrations greater than the water-quality objective. Median total iron concentrations were highly variable across the basin, and for most main-stem sites, median concentrations were greater than or equal to the water-quality objective. During the recent period (2009–19), the annual flow-averaged concentrations of total dissolved solids and sulfate increased for nearly all stream sites with most sites having mildly significant or significant increases. One-half of the sites had an annual flow-averaged geometric mean concentration greater than the total dissolved solids water-quality objective, and four sites had sulfate increases greater than 100 milligrams per liter. Trends in annual flow-averaged concentrations of sodium and chloride generally were small and nonsignificant. Most sites had concentrations greater than the sodium water-quality objective, whereas all sites had concentrations much less than the chloride water-quality objective. Annual flow-averaged geometric mean concentration of total phosphorus decreased for nearly all sites across the Souris River Basin, but all sites had concentrations greater than the total phosphorus water-quality objective for the entire period. Small and nonsignificant changes in annual flow-averaged geometric mean concentration of total iron were detected at all sites but the binational site at Sherwood, N. Dak., and by 2019 all sites had concentrations greater than the total iron water-quality objective. For the reservoir sites, during 2000–15, mostly significant increases for total dissolved solids, sulfate, and sodium were detected, whereas changes in total phosphorus and total iron were mixed. During the historical period (1976–2019), large and consistent increases in total dissolved solids and sulfate have occurred since the late 1980s, with the largest increases and the most sites with mildly significant or significant increases generally occurring during the middle period (1988–2005). Large and significant or mildly significant increases in sodium concentrations occurred at eight of 10 sites in the middle period (1988–2005), and by the late period (2005–19) changes were small and nonsignificant. Similar to other basins in the region, such as the Red River of the North and Heart River, large and overall consistent increases since the late 1980s in total dissolved solids and sulfate in the Souris River Basin suggest that long-term natural (hydroclimatic) processes are large contributors to increases in the concentration of salts in streams and reservoirs associated with the onset of wetter conditions. The concurrent increases in sulfate and sodium concentrations at all sites during the middle period (1988–2005) suggest that sodium-sulfate evaporite dissolution may be a factor contributing to increases. Total phosphorus concentrations oscillated between increasing and decreasing during the historical period, with concentrations increasing during the first trend period (1976–88) and decreasing in the fourth trend period (2009–19) to the lowest flow-averaged geometric mean concentration by 2019 for most sites. During the historical period, changes in total iron concentrations were mostly nonsignificant and generally small, and variability in total iron concentrations likely affected the ability to detect statistically significant changes in concentration. The probability of exceeding the water-quality objective for total dissolved solids, sulfate, and sodium increased between 1976 and 2019 for the binational sites, especially for sulfate, which more than doubled for Souris River near Sherwood, N. Dak. and increased more than seven times for Souris River near Westhope, N. Dak. Total phosphorus and total iron concentrations for the binational sites were likely to exceed the water-quality objective for most of the year, but seasonal patterns of total phosphorus and total iron concentrations were different between the sites, suggesting that different factors may affect concentrations at different times of the year. For sodium, total phosphorus, and total iron, exceedance of the water-quality objective most of the time is not unexpected given that the flow-averaged geometric mean concentration for these three constituents for most sites across the basin are greater than the water-quality objective for most of the period. If natural processes are affecting total dissolved solids and sulfate concentrations, concentrations would be expected to vary with time, and as a result, extended periods of concentrations greater or less than the water-quality objective are likely to occur depending upon climatic conditions. A better understanding of the state of water quality across the Souris River Basin is beneficial to understanding and interpreting water-quality conditions at the two Souris River binational sites. The most consistent spatial and temporal change observed for this study was large and consistent increases in sulfate and total dissolved solids among tributary and main-stem sites since the late 1980s. For sulfate and total dissolved solids, wetter climatic conditions combined with naturally occurring and abundant sources of sulfate likely contributed to sustained exceedances of water-quality objectives in recent decades, and extended periods of concentrations greater than or less than the water-quality objective are likely to occur depending on climatic conditions. For sodium, total iron, and total phosphorus, sustained exceedances of the current water-quality objective likely will continue because most sites across the basin had flow-averaged geometric mean concentrations greater than the water-quality objective; and during the 43-year period of analysis, regardless of climatic conditions, exceedances were consistently greater than the water-quality objective. Further investigation into the factors causing increasing sulfate concentrations and a better understanding of reservoir dynamics would enhance the understanding of changes in water-quality conditions in the Souris River Basin. The basin-wide approach of this report provided an improved understanding of water-quality conditions in the Souris River Basin, and results can be used to inform the current water-quality objectives, inform potential changes to water management in the basin, and serve as a starting point for tracking future progress. Gaps in understanding of water-quality conditions can be closed through continued monitoring and further investigation into causes behind changes in water-quality conditions identified in this report.

Manitoba, North Dakota, Saskatchewan↗

USGS2021

Characterization of historical and stochastically generated climate and streamflow conditions in the Souris River Basin, United States and Canada

The Souris River Basin is a 61,000-square-kilometer basin in the Provinces of Saskatchewan and Manitoba in Canada and the State of North Dakota in the United States. Greater than average snowpack during the winter of 2010–11, along with record-setting rains in May and June 2011, resulted in historically unprecedented flooding in the Souris River Basin. The severity of the 2011 flood led the United States and Canada to request a review of the operating plan for any improvements of reservoir operations and flood control measures in the basin, and the Souris River Basin Task Force was formed. The International Souris River Study Board was then formed in 2017 to carry out the recommendations of the Souris River Basin Task Force laid out in a plan of study. To support the International Souris River Study Board, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the North Dakota State Water Commission and the International Joint Commission, used the previously developed unregulated and regulated streamflow models and data for stochastic streamflow in the Souris River Basin to characterize climate and streamflow and support selection of streamflow traces based on their characterization. Components of the original stochastic hydrology models and their outputs were used in this phase of the study to (1) characterize historical and stochastic climate and streamflow for the Souris River Basin, (2) disaggregate monthly stochastic streamflow spatially and temporally to meet the needs of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Hydrologic Engineering Center, Reservoir System Simulation model for the Souris River Basin, and (3) discuss selection of disaggregated streamflow traces (simulations) using the characteristics of climate and streamflow. A trace is a time series of a stochastic variable such as streamflow, potential evapotranspiration, or precipitation. To characterize climate conditions, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (PET), and moisture deficit for the Souris River Basin and individual points at Rafferty, Grant Devine, and Lake Darling Reservoirs were determined annually and seasonally. The annual basin (November 1–October 31) precipitation for the 50-percent nonexceedance probability is 452 millimeters (mm). Spring (March–May) is the wettest season, followed by summer (June–August), fall (September–November), and winter (December–February). Annual moisture deficit was largest at Lake Darling Reservoir, followed by Rafferty Reservoir, and then Grant Devine Reservoir. Annual maximum monthly mean streamflow was determined for the Souris River below Rafferty Reservoir, Saskatchewan (Canadian streamgage 05NB036); Long Creek near Noonan (above Boundary Reservoir), North Dakota (USGS streamgage 05113600); Moose Mountain Creek near Oxbow, Saskatchewan (Canadian streamgage 05ND004); the Souris River near Sherwood, N. Dak. (USGS streamgage 05114000); the Des Lacs River at Foxholm, N. Dak. (USGS streamgage 05116500); and the Souris River above Minot, N. Dak. (USGS streamgage 05117500). When the seasonal maximum monthly mean streamflows are evaluated in contrast to annual maximum monthly mean streamflows separated by their seasonal occurrence, summer months of annual maximum monthly mean streamflows have a higher 50-percent exceedance probability of streamflow compared to annual maximum monthly mean streamflows that occur in spring, seasonal maximum monthly mean streamflows that occur in spring, and seasonal maximum monthly mean streamflows that occur in summer. When annual maximum monthly mean streamflows in summer are compared to annual maximum monthly mean streamflows in spring, they are consistently higher in streamflow but occur in less than 4.2 percent of years. Evaluation of whether the annual maximum monthly mean streamflows that occur in summer can be described as a separate population from annual maximum monthly mean streamflows that occur in spring was outside the scope of this study, and the summer and spring annual maximum monthly mean streamflows were not tested for statistical differences in mean or variance. Further investigation of seasonal weather patterns that induce flooding could lead to a better understanding of the seasonal differences in flooding. Long-term hydrologic drought was characterized by evaluating multiyear mean streamflow. Shorter averaging periods have greater streamflow variability than longer periods and hence have a wider range of values. As the averaging period is extended to a longer period, the variability of mean streamflow decreases, and the more extreme streamflow volumes seen in shorter averaging periods cannot be sustained. Stochastic streamflow time series were disaggregated spatially and temporally for use in a HEC–ResSim model. The combination of monthly and daily stochastic streamflow data was used to select traces with qualities that could be used to test alternatives focused on water supply, summer flooding, and apportionment.

Manitoba, North Dakota, Saskatchewan↗

USGS2016

Tree-ring-based estimates of long-term seasonal precipitation in the Souris River Region of Saskatchewan, North Dakota and Manitoba

Historically unprecedented flooding occurred in the Souris River Basin of Saskatchewan, North Dakota and Manitoba in 2011, during a longer term period of wet conditions in the basin. In order to develop a model of future flows, there is a need to evaluate effects of past multidecadal climate variability and/or possible climate change on precipitation. In this study, tree-ring chronologies and historical precipitation data in a four-degree buffer around the Souris River Basin were analyzed to develop regression models that can be used for predicting long-term variations of precipitation. To focus on longer term variability, 12-year moving average precipitation was modeled in five subregions (determined through cluster analysis of measures of precipitation) of the study area over three seasons (November–February, March–June and July–October). The models used multiresolution decomposition (an additive decomposition based on powers of two using a discrete wavelet transform) of tree-ring chronologies from Canada and the US and seasonal 12-year moving average precipitation based on Adjusted and Homogenized Canadian Climate Data and US Historical Climatology Network data. Results show that precipitation varies on long-term (multidecadal) time scales of 16, 32 and 64 years. Past extended pluvial and drought events, which can vary greatly with season and subregion, were highlighted by the models. Results suggest that the recent wet period may be a part of natural variability on a very long time scale.

Manitoba, North Dakota, Saskatchewan↗

USGS2016

Stochastic model for simulating Souris River Basin precipitation, evapotranspiration, and natural streamflow

The Souris River Basin is a 61,000-square-kilometer basin in the Provinces of Saskatchewan and Manitoba and the State of North Dakota. In May and June of 2011, record-setting rains were seen in the headwater areas of the basin. Emergency spillways of major reservoirs were discharging at full or nearly full capacity, and extensive flooding was seen in numerous downstream communities. To determine the probability of future extreme floods and droughts, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the North Dakota State Water Commission, developed a stochastic model for simulating Souris River Basin precipitation, evapotranspiration, and natural (unregulated) streamflow. Simulations from the model can be used in future studies to simulate regulated streamflow, design levees, and other structures; and to complete economic cost/benefit analyses. Long-term climatic variability was analyzed using tree-ring chronologies to hindcast precipitation to the early 1700s and compare recent wet and dry conditions to earlier extreme conditions. The extended precipitation record was consistent with findings from the Devils Lake and Red River of the North Basins (southeast of the Souris River Basin), supporting the idea that regional climatic patterns for many centuries have consisted of alternating wet and dry climate states. A stochastic climate simulation model for precipitation, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration for the Souris River Basin was developed using recorded meteorological data and extended precipitation records provided through tree-ring analysis. A significant climate transition was seen around1970, with 1912–69 representing a dry climate state and 1970–2011 representing a wet climate state. Although there were some distinct subpatterns within the basin, the predominant differences between the two states were higher spring through early fall precipitation and higher spring potential evapotranspiration for the wet compared to the dry state. A water-balance model was developed for simulating monthly natural (unregulated) mean streamflow based on precipitation, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration at select streamflow-gaging stations. The model was calibrated using streamflow data from the U.S. Geological Survey and Environment Canada, along with natural (unregulated) streamflow data from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Correlation coefficients between simulated and natural (unregulated) flows generally were high (greater than 0.8), and the seasonal means and standard deviations of the simulated flows closely matched the means and standard deviations of the natural (unregulated) flows. After calibrating the model for a monthly time step, monthly streamflow for each subbasin was disaggregated into three values per month, or an approximately 10-day time step, and a separate routing model was developed for simulating 10-day streamflow for downstream gages. The stochastic climate simulation model for precipitation, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration was combined with the water-balance model to simulate potential future sequences of 10-day mean streamflow for each of the streamflow-gaging station locations. Flood risk, as determined by equilibrium flow-frequency distributions for the dry (1912–69) and wet (1970–2011) climate states, was considerably higher for the wet state compared to the dry state. Future flood risk will remain high until the wet climate state ends, and for several years after that, because there may be a long lag-time between the return of drier conditions and the onset of a lower soil-moisture storage equilibrium.

Manitoba, North Dakota, Saskatchewan↗

USGS2014

Hydrogeochemistry of prairie pothole region wetlands: Role of long-term critical zone processes

This study addresses the geologic and hydrogeochemical processes operating at a range of scales within the prairie pothole region (PPR). The PPR is a 750,000 km 2 portion of north central North America that hosts millions of small wetlands known to be critical habitat for waterfowl and other wildlife. At a local scale, we characterized the geochemical evolution of the 92-ha Cottonwood Lake study area (CWLSA), located in North Dakota, USA. Critical zone processes are the long-term determinant of wetland water and groundwater geochemistry via the interaction of oxygenated groundwater with pyrite in the underlying glacial till. Pyrite oxidation produced a brown, iron oxide-bearing surface layer locally over 13 m thick and an estimated minimum of 1.3 × 10 10 g sulfate (SO 4 2 − ) at CWLSA. We show that the majority of this SO 4 2− now resides in solid-phase gypsum (CaSO 4 •2H 2 O) and gypsum-saturated groundwater. Results from the CWLSA were scaled up to a 9700 km 2 area surrounding CWLSA using ~ 1800 drill logs and literature data on wetland water chemistry for 178 wetlands within this larger area. The oxidized brown zone depth and wetland water compositional trends are very similar to the CWLSA. Additionally, surface water data from 176 southern Canadian pothole wetlands that conform to the same wetland water geochemical trends as those recorded in the CWLSA further corroborate that SO 4 2 − accumulation driven by pyrite oxidation is a nearly ubiquitous process in the prairie pothole region and distinguishes PPR wetlands from other wetlands worldwide that have a similar overall hydrology.

Manitoba, North Dakota, Saskatchewan↗