Geology topics

Research about Lake Michigan

Source-linked reports with geographic coverage including Lake Michigan.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Assessment of the fish tumors or other deformities beneficial use impairment and associated risks at two Lake Michigan Areas of Concern

The U.S. Great Lakes Areas of Concern (AOCs) have been designated due to significant environmental degradation, with multiple Beneficial Use Impairments (BUIs) requiring remediation before delisting. The “fish tumors or other deformities” BUI remains at the Sheboygan River and the Lower Green Bay and Fox River AOCs, necessitating evaluation in white sucker ( Catostomus commersonii ), a sentinel species. This study documented the prevalence of skin and liver neoplastic and preneoplastic lesions at these AOCs, assessed temporal trends at the Sheboygan River AOC from 2012 to 2021, and investigated potential risk factors influencing liver neoplasm development using histological and molecular approaches. Histopathological analyses revealed that skin neoplasms were present in 15.5% of fish from the Green Bay AOC and 21.5% from the Sheboygan River AOC, while liver neoplasms were detected in 7.0% and 6.0% of fish, respectively. At the Sheboygan River AOC, the prevalence of skin tumors declined from 32.6% in 2012 to 21.5% in 2021, and liver tumor prevalence decreased from 8.3% in 2012 to 6.0% in 2021. Hepatic transcript analyses identified significant expression of genes associated with contaminant exposure, oxidative stress, and immune response, suggesting ongoing exposure to environmental stressors. The presence of white sucker hepatitis B-like virus (WSHBV) in hepatocytes was confirmed, though no direct correlation between viral transcript abundance and neoplastic lesions was found. Findings indicate tumor prevalence has declined over time, however rates remain elevated compared to previous reference site assessments. The study underscores the potential multifactorial nature of carcinogenesis in wild fish populations, involving both chemical and biological stressors.

Lake Michigan↗

USGS2026

Status and trends of pelagic and benthic prey fish populations in Lake Michigan, 2025

Lake Michigan↗

USGS2025

Improved ground-truthing and benthic habitat characterization with machine learning models and 3D photogrammetry

Benthic mapping relies on a range of methods to ground truth remotely sensed data to map physical and biotic features. Traditional methods are labor-intensive and time-consuming with limited scalability. Autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) and remote operated vehicles (ROVs) can collect high volumes of quality data but require automated processing routines and pose other logistic challenges. This paper explores the automated use of multiple machine learning (ML) models to detect and delineate benthic habitat components from structure-from-motion (SfM) orthomosaics. Overlapping AUV photos were processed into high-resolution, seamless orthomosaics for a portion of the Lake Michigan lakebed. ML models were trained to delineate rocks and live mussels and subsequently applied to the SfM orthomosaics. Results demonstrate that a robust pipeline with SfM and ML models is an effective approach to efficiently, accurately, and comprehensively map benthic habitats.

Lake Michigan↗

USGS2025

Stable C and N isotope analyses redefine cisco as pelagic piscivores in Lake Michigan

Lake Michigan’s cisco ( Coregonus artedi ) population is in the midst of an expansion (2011-present) recovering from near extirpation levels observed in the 1970 s. Strong evidence of piscivory derived from observed diet analyses suggests the population may occupy a unique trophic position relative to typical expectations for the species. To verify these observations, cisco and their prey were collected from 2017 to 2020 for stable C and N isotope analyses. Leveraging existing stable isotope datasets for Lake Michigan, the trophic position of cisco was assessed by quantifying the isotopic niche space occupied relative to common salmonine piscivores and prey fish species. Diet mixing models were constructed to estimate the relative importance of potential prey sources to cisco diets. Results suggested that cisco occupied an isotopic niche similar to Pacific salmonines ( Oncorhynchus spp.) and brown trout ( Salmo trutta ) that are mainly piscivorous. Conversely, there was low isotopic niche overlap with prey fish species that are mainly planktivorous. Mixing models suggest greater reliance on pelagic prey sources (including alewife Alosa pseudoharengus and Bythotrephes longimanus ) in cisco diets when compared with observations of stomach contents. Under the present ecological conditions in Lake Michigan, it appears that adult cisco in this population occupy the trophic role of a pelagic piscivore.

Lake Michigan↗

USGS2025

Status and trends of pelagic and benthic prey fish populations in Lake Michigan, 2024

Fall bottom trawl (fall BT) and lakewide acoustic (AC) surveys are conducted annually to generate indices of pelagic and benthic prey fish densities in Lake Michigan. The fall BT survey has been conducted each fall since 1973 using 12-m trawls at depths ranging from 9 to 110 m at fixed locations distributed across seven transects; this survey estimates densities of seven prey fish species [i.e., Alewife ( Alosa pseudoharengus ), Bloater ( Coregonus hoyi ), Rainbow Smelt ( Osmerus mordax ), Deepwater Sculpin ( Myoxocephalus thompsonii ), Slimy Sculpin ( Cottus cognatus ), Round Goby ( Neogobius melanostomus ), Ninespine Stickleback ( Pungitius pungitius )] as well as age-0 Yellow Perch ( Perca flavescens ) and large (> 350 mm) Burbot ( Lota lota ). In recent years, wild juvenile (<400 mm) Lake Trout ( Salvelinus namaycush ) have also become more common in the fall bottom trawl. The AC survey has been conducted each late summer/early fall since 2004 (except 2020). The 2024 AC survey consisted of 24 transects [468 km total (291 miles)] covering bottom depths ranging from 16 to 173 m and 38 midwater trawl tows at 4 to 72 m; this survey estimates densities of three prey fish species (i.e., Alewife, Bloater, and Rainbow Smelt). The data generated from these surveys are used to estimate various population parameters that are, in turn, used by state and tribal agencies in managing Lake Michigan fish stocks. In spring of 2024, an additional spring bottom trawl survey (spring BT) was implemented across six of the transects sampled in the fall and sites ranged in depth from 9 to 237 m. The goal of the spring BT, conducted annually since 2021 with differing levels of effort, was to explore seasonal differences in biomass density and distributions of key prey species, most notably Alewife. Total prey fish biomass density from the spring BT was 5.7 kg/ha. For the AC survey, total biomass density of prey fish equaled 10.8 kg/ha, more than double the long-term average (20042023) of 5.1 kg/ha but 4.0 kg/ha lower than the 2023 estimate. For the fall BT, total biomass density of prey fish equaled 2.1 kg/ha, the lowest value since 2020 and 69% lower than the average from 2004-2023 (6.8 kg/ha). The 2024 fall BT biomass density was only 6.3% of the average over the entirety of the time series (1973-2023; 33.1 kg/ha). Over the period both surveys have been conducted (2004-2024), total biomass density has trended downward in the fall BT (despite a high 2022 estimate) and remained relatively stable in the AC survey. Deepwater Sculpin and Bloater were the most common species (by biomass) among prey fishes in the spring BT while the AC survey and fall BT reported co-dominance of Bloater and Alewife. Mean biomass of yearling and older (YAO) Alewife was 1.30 kg/ha in the spring BT, 4.7 kg/ha in the AC survey, and 0.68 kg/ha in the fall BT. Since 2014, annual survey results suggest that the catchability of YAO Alewives for the fall BT is substantially lower than the AC survey. Like previous spring surveys, Alewives were aggregated in deeper habitats, with 93% of biomass collected between 110 and 201 m. Results of the 2024 spring BT align with past spring surveys and do not suggest that spring bottom trawling provides a better index of age-2 and older Alewives than fall bottom trawling, even with adjustments for differences in habitat use. However, the spring BT does appear to index age-1 Alewives more effectively than the fall BT. The 2024 AC survey YAO Alewife biomass density estimate was 77% higher than the average from 2004-2023. The Alewife population of Lake Michigan appears to be composed mostly of young fish and the proportion of age-4 and older Alewives was <1.8% in each of the three surveys. Age-0 Alewife numeric density from the AC survey was 510 fish/ha in 2024, slightly higher than the long-term mean (486 fish/ha). Biomass density of large (≥120 mm) Bloater was 5.2 kg/ha in the AC survey and 0.76 kg/ha in the fall BT, while total Bloater biomass in the spring BT was 1.8 kg/ha - all three estimates were much lower than what was estimated by the fall BT between 1981 and 1998. The density of small (<120 mm) Bloater was 456 fish/ha in the AC survey, the second highest value in the time series and potentially reflective of an above average 2024 year-class. Meanwhile, small Bloater density estimated in the fall BT was only 16 fish/ha. Biomass density of large Rainbow Smelt (≥90 mm) was 0.21 kg/ha in the AC survey and 0.03 kg/ha in the fall BT survey, continuing the trend of low large Rainbow Smelt biomass observed since 2001. Numeric density of small (<90 mm) Rainbow Smelt was 31 fish/ha in the AC survey and 143 fish/ha in the fall BT. All four prey fish species indexed only by the fall BT had below-average biomass densities regardless of trawling season. Deepwater Sculpin biomass density was 0.26 kg/ha, which makes 14 of the past 15 years with biomass <1 kg/ha. Spring BT Deepwater Sculpin biomass density (2.0 kg/ha) was higher than any fall BT estimate since 2006, likely reflective of including bottom trawls at greater depths in the spring than the fall. Slimy Sculpin was estimated to be < 0.04 kg/ha in the spring and fall BT, an order of magnitude lower than the long-term average from the fall BT. Round Goby biomass density estimates were low and similar across seasons (0.43 kg/ha in the spring and 0.10 kg/ha in the fall). Ninespine Stickleback density was 3.9 fish/ha in the fall BT and no fish were collected in the spring BT.

Lake Michigan↗

USGS2025

Sunburned after a day at the beach? Investigation of ultraviolet radiation tissue damage on larval Lake Whitefish and Alewife across lake Michigan nursery habitats of varying water clarities

No abstract available.

Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin↗

USGS2024

Comparing conventional tagging methods and acoustic telemetry to inform management of Lake Whitefish in Lake Michigan

Objective Studies of fish movement using conventional tags or acoustic telemetry have different benefits and biases that can influence how conclusions are used in a management context. Our objective was to determine whether these two methods provided similar inferences regarding movements and spawning site fidelity of Lake Whitefish Coregonus clupeaformis in Lake Michigan. Additionally, we assessed movement patterns and used telemetry to assess residency time of Lake Whitefish to provide managers with information on which stocks might be exposed to harvest in different regions. Methods Lake Whitefish were tagged during spawning in (1) North and Moonlight bays, (2) Big Bay de Noc, (3) the Menominee River, and (4) the Fox River. Proportions of fish moving between southern Green Bay, northern Green Bay, and Lake Michigan were compared between tag types. Spawning site fidelity was estimated for each tagging site. Seasonal residency indices were calculated using acoustic telemetry detections. Result Estimates differed between the two methods, but overall trends were similar. Fox River fish rarely left southern Green Bay, and fish tagged in North and Moonlight bays rarely entered Green Bay (<10% of individuals). Big Bay de Noc and Menominee River fish moved into other regions more often (>50% of individuals). The residency indices indicated that Big Bay de Noc fish spent most of their time in Lake Michigan while Menominee River fish spent little time in northern Green Bay despite transitioning to the region. Compared to telemetry, conventional tag recoveries underestimated the proportion of individuals moving among regions. Spawning site fidelity estimates (28–100%) varied among tagging groups and between methods. Conclusion Our results suggest that data from conventional tags can inform management at broad geographic scales. However, acoustic telemetry can provide fine-scale information. Information gained from telemetry can be useful in understanding exposure to fishing mortality, which may be valuable for informing management decisions.

Lake Michigan↗

USGS2024

A transferable approach for quantifying benthic fish sizes and densities in annotated underwater images

1. Benthic fishes are a common target of scientific monitoring but are difficult to quantify because of their close association to bottom habitats that are hard to access. Advances in image-acquisition technologies, machine vision, and deep learning have made capturing and quantifying fishes with cameras increasingly feasible. We present a method and open-source software called ‘FishScale’ to estimate benthic fish lengths, numeric abundance, and biomass density in underwater environments assessed with down-looking monocular images. 2. ‘FishScale’ estimates fish abundances and size frequencies from near-nadir monocular images where fish have already been semantically segmented. The software accounts for lens distortion, underwater magnification effects, and fish body curvature to automatically estimate fish lengths and the areas of images where they were captured. Numeric and biomass density are estimated through a deterministic machine vision algorithm that requires a user-provided length-weight relationship for species of interest and calibration images. 3. Results from validation studies show that lengths and weights can be estimated with high accuracy and precision for round goby ( Neogobius melanostomus ) captured in distorted action camera images, and from large-bodied lake trout ( Salvelinus namaycush ) imaged with a machine vision camera. The real-world utility of the approach is demonstrated in a case study estimating round goby abundances and size frequencies along a 10.7-km transect surveyed with an autonomous underwater vehicle in Lake Michigan, USA. 4. Our validation studies demonstrate that the approach estimates benthic and benthopelagic fish lengths and weights with little bias and good accuracy and precision for species with much different body shapes and sizes. The method is applicable to data collected using a variety of nadir imaging approaches with widespread applications to fisheries monitoring and quantification of any species or object for which nadir images and working distances between the camera and feature of interest are available.

Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin↗

USGS2024

Testing food web theory in a large lake: The role of body size in habitat coupling in Lake Michigan

The landscape theory of food web architecture (LTFWA) describes relationships among body size, trophic position, mobility, and energy channels that serve to couple heterogenous habitats, which in turn promotes long-term system stability. However, empirical tests of the LTFWA are rare and support differs among terrestrial, freshwater, and marine systems. Further, it is unclear whether the theory applies in highly altered ecosystems dominated by introduced species such as the Laurentian Great Lakes. Here, we provide an empirical test of the LTFWA by relating body size, trophic position, and the coupling of different energy channels using stable isotope data from species throughout the Lake Michigan food web. We found that body size was positively related to trophic position, but for a given trophic position, organisms predominately supported by pelagic energy had smaller body sizes than organisms predominately supported by nearshore benthic energy. We also found a hump-shaped trophic relationship in the food web where there is a gradual increase in the coupling of pelagic and nearshore energy channels with larger body sizes as well as higher trophic positions. This highlights the important role of body size and connectivity among habitats in structuring food webs. However, important deviations from expectations are suggestive of how species introductions and other anthropogenic impacts can affect food web structure in large lakes. First, native top predators appear to be flexible couplers that may provide food web resilience, whereas introduced top predators may confer less stability when they specialize on a single energy pathway. Second, some smaller bodied prey fish and invertebrates, in addition to mobile predators, coupled energy from pelagic and nearshore energy channels, which suggests that some prey species may also be important integrators of energy pathways in the system. We conclude that patterns predicted by the LTFWA are present in the face of species introductions and other anthropogenic stressors to a degree, but time-series evaluations are needed to fully understand the mechanisms that promote stability.

Lake Michigan↗

USGS2024

Climate-influenced phenology of larval fish transport in a large lake

Elucidating physical transport phenologies in large lakes can aid understanding of larval recruitment dynamics. Here, we integrate a series of climate, hydrodynamic, biogeochemical, and Lagrangian particle dispersion models to: (1) simulate hatch and transport of fish larvae throughout an illustrative large lake, (2) evaluate patterns of historic and potential future climate-induced larval transport, and (3) consider consequences for overlap with suitable temperatures and prey. Simulations demonstrate that relative offshore transport increases seasonally, with shifts toward offshore transport occurring earlier during relatively warm historic and future simulations. Intra- and inter-annual trends in transport were robust to assumed pelagic larval duration and precise location and timing of hatching. Larvae retained nearshore generally encountered more favorable temperatures and zooplankton densities compared to larvae transported offshore. Larval exploitation of nearshore resources under climate change may depend on a concomitant shift to earlier spawning and hatch times in advance of earlier offshore transport.

Lake Michigan↗

USGS2024

Spatial distribution and diet of Lake Michigan juvenile lake trout

Most studies of Lake Michigan lake trout ( Salvelinus namaycush ) have focused on adults, with scant attention to juveniles (<400 mm). We explored the spatial distribution and diet of juvenile lake trout using U.S. Geological Survey September bottom trawl data (2015–2022) and stomach content information opportunistically collected since 2012 by various agencies using multiple gear types. Most juvenile lake trout in the September bottom trawl survey were caught at 37–64 m bottom depths. Length frequency data from the bottom trawl survey identified three size classes likely associated with wild juvenile lake trout age: < 85 mm (∼age-0), 85–170 mm (∼age-1) and > 170 mm (∼age-2+). Largest catches of wild lake trout < 170 mm occurred along a northeastern transect (near Frankfort, Michigan), whereas most > 170 mm were collected along southern transects. Mysis diluviana was the dominant prey for juvenile lake trout < 170 mm, and > 250 mm were primarily piscivorous, while 170–250 mm appeared to be a transitional period of switching from Mysis to fish. Species composition of prey fishes consumed by lake trout varied spatially and we found evidence of seasonal and annual diet variation within Grand Traverse Bay. Diporeia , once an important component of juvenile lake trout diet, appears to no longer be consumed by juvenile lake trout in Lake Michigan to any measurable degree. Continued research on the ecology of juvenile lake trout may provide insight into the effects of a changing ecosystem on juvenile lake trout diet and growth, thereby contributing to the effort to rehabilitate the Lake Michigan lake trout population.

Lake Michigan↗

USGS2024

USGS Activities in Support of 2020–2021 Lake Michigan CSMI

No abstract available.

Lake Michigan↗

USGS2024

Status and trends of pelagic and benthic prey fish populations in Lake Michigan, 2023

Fall bottom trawl (fall BT) and lakewide acoustic (AC) surveys are conducted annually to generate indices of pelagic and benthic prey fish densities in Lake Michigan. The fall BT survey has been conducted each fall since 1973 using 12-m trawls at depths ranging from 9 to 110 m at fixed locations distributed across seven transects; this survey estimates densities of seven prey fish species [i.e., Alewife ( Alosa pseudoharengus ), Bloater ( Coregonus hoyi ), Rainbow Smelt ( Osmerus mordax ), Deepwater Sculpin ( Myoxocephalus thompsonii ), Slimy Sculpin ( Cottus cognatus ), Round Goby ( Neogobius melanostomus ), Ninespine Stickleback ( Pungitius pungitius )] as well as age-0 Yellow Perch ( Perca flavescens ) and large (> 350 mm) Burbot ( Lota lota ). The AC survey has been conducted each late summer/early fall since 2004, and the 2023 survey consisted of 20 transects [450 km total (336 miles)] covering bottom depths ranging from 12 to 248 m and 29 midwater trawl tows above bottom depths ranging 16 to 246 m; this survey estimates densities of three prey fish species (i.e., Alewife, Bloater, and Rainbow Smelt). The data generated from these surveys are used to estimate various population parameters that are, in turn, used by state and tribal agencies in managing Lake Michigan fish stocks. A spring bottom trawl survey (spring BT) was implemented across 3 of the transects sampled in the fall and sites ranged in depth from 18 to 164 m. The goal of the spring BT is to explore seasonal differences in biomass density and distributions of key prey species, most notably Alewife. Additionally, we conducted acoustic sampling while bottom trawling to evaluate the vertical distribution of fish relative to the height of the trawl. The abbreviated spring BT survey results indicated that Alewives were primarily offshore with peak biomass density at the 91 m bottom depth. There was no evidence of higher acoustic density above the trawl at depths of 18, 73, 128, and 146 m. At 91 and 164 m, acoustic density above the trawl was >2x that in the trawl path, but sample size at these two depths was low. For the AC survey, total biomass density of prey fish equaled 14.8 kg/ha, 223% higher than the longterm average (2004-2022) of 4.6 kg/ha and 8.8 kg/ha higher than the 2022 estimate. For the fall BT, total biomass density of prey fish equaled 3.6 kg/ha, about 50% lower than the average value from 2004-2022 (6.9 kg/ha). The 2023 fall BT biomass was an order of magnitude lower than the average over the entirety of the time series (1973-2022; 33.7 kg/ha). Bloater was the dominant species (by biomass) among prey fishes in the fall BT, while the AC survey reported dominance of Alewife. Mean biomass of yearling and older (YAO) Alewife was 10.3 kg/ha in the AC survey, and 0.7 kg/ha in the fall BT. Since 2014, catchability of YAO Alewives for the fall BT has been substantially lower than the AC survey. While limited in scope, the results of the 2023 spring BT do not suggest that catchability is substantially higher in the spring than the fall, which aligns with the 2022 survey results. Comparing the AC estimate to previous years, YAO Alewife biomass was 359% higher than the average from 2004-2022. Numeric density of age-0 Alewife from the AC survey was 1,205 fish/ha in 2023, which is the third highest in the time series and well above the long-term mean of 428 fish/ha. Biomass density of large (≥120 mm) Bloater in 2023 was 3.5 kg/ha in the AC survey and 2.1 kg/ha in the fall BT - each at least an order of magnitude lower than what was estimated by the fall BT between 1985 and 1997. Following a record high year in 2021 (1,034 fish/ha), the numeric density of small (<120 mm) Bloater was 142 fish/ha in the AC survey, similar to the long-term mean of 120 fish/ha. Meanwhile, small Bloater density estimated in the fall BT was 2 fish/ha. Biomass density of large Rainbow Smelt (≥90 mm) was <0.05 kg/ha in the AC and fall BT surveys, continuing the trend of low Rainbow Smelt biomass that has been observed since 2001. Numeric density of small (<90 mm) Rainbow Smelt was 119 fish/ha in the AC survey and 7 fish/ha in the fall BT, indicating a weak year-class. All four prey fish species sampled only by the fall BT indicated below average biomass densities. Deepwater Sculpin biomass density was estimated at 0.4 kg/ha, which makes 13 of the past 14 years when biomass was <1 kg/ha. Slimy Sculpin was estimated at 0.02 kg/ha, only 5% of the long-term average. Round Goby was estimated at 0.3 kg/ha, below the average biomass of 0.85 kg/ha since 2008 but similar to intermittent low values observed throughout the dataset. Ninespine Stickleback density was 1 fish/ha. Only 35 small (<100 mm) Yellow Perch were caught, indicating a weak Yellow Perch year-class in 2023.

Lake Michigan↗

USGS2024

Understanding and forecasting potential recruitment of Lake Michigan fishes by modeling growth and survival of larval stages with coupled climate, biophysical, and bioenergetics models

Individual adult fish can produce huge numbers of small offspring, but most die in the first weeks of life. Environmental changes that lead to even small changes in early life survival can have a disproportionate impact on the number of fish that survive and ultimately support fisheries. Lake Michigan supports valuable recreational and commercial fisheries that can fluctuate with how well fish survive in early life. Statistical models have revealed linkages between survival and climate characteristics, such as water temperature, but the exact mechanisms remain unclear and how future climate will affect the survival of young fish is highly uncertain. We integrated a series of models to investigate how climate variability may explain historical variation in the survival of young alewife and yellow perch, two fish populations that support key fisheries either directly or indirectly, while also projecting their future survival in the mid-21st century under different scenarios informed by consultation with fishery managers. Our model results revealed how spring and summer water temperatures in Lake Michigan can affect the environment in which young alewife and yellow perch grow and survive. Specifically, in years when lake warming is rapid, young fish are more likely to be transported from their natal, productive, nearshore environments to cooler and less productive offshore environments, unless adults also spawn earlier in these warm years. Furthermore, model predictions of prey abundance for young fish in the mid-21st century indicate less favorable conditions for growth and survival compared to predictions based solely on warming temperatures. With completion of the final products in the coming year, including predicted growth and survival of young fish under different future scenarios, fishery managers will have more information to share with stakeholders regarding how expectations may need to be modified regarding alewife and yellow perch productivity.

Lake Michigan↗

USGS2023

Estimates of adult Lake Trout mortality from coded wire tags in a population with developing natural reproduction in southern Lake Michigan

Objective Overfishing and Sea Lamprey Petromyzon marinus predation led to extirpation of Lake Trout Salvelinus namaycush from Lake Michigan in the 1950s. Large populations of hatchery‐reared fish were developed by the 1970s, but natural reproduction was limited until the early 2000s when it began to increase in the southern main basin. Hypothesizing that the relatively low mortality of spawning‐aged fish contributed to this reproductive success, we estimated the total annual mortality rate for this population. Methods We used catch curves to estimate the total instantaneous mortality rate Z using coded wire tags, which provided definitive ages. We made separate estimates from fish collected in three on‐going surveys: a spring gill‐net survey, a fall gill‐net spawning survey, and a sport fishery survey. Result Our estimates of Z ± SE were 0.297 ± 0.019, 0.239 ± 0.009, and 0.205 ± 0.007 for the spring, spawning, and sport fishery surveys, respectively. We suggest that the mean Z ± SE of all survey estimates of 0.247 ± 0.027 would be a reasonable estimate for this population, which equates to a total annual mortality of 22 ± 3%. This estimate is in the low range of rates reported for the species and is in the same range as other populations in the Great Lakes with well‐established natural reproduction. Conclusion We concluded that these low total mortality rates contributed to the reproductive success in southern Lake Michigan through increasing spawning stock density and age structure and that previous estimates of another important population parameter, the instantaneous natural mortality rate M , were too high. Estimates of M ranged from 0.210 to 0.240 and were based on the Pauly equation, a growth‐ and temperature‐based estimator. We suggest maximum‐age‐based estimators of M are more appropriate for Lake Trout. Several alternative maximum‐age‐based estimators produced estimates for M of 0.132–0.058, all of which are more compatible with our estimate of Z .

Lake Michigan↗

USGS2023

Dispersive currents explain patterns of population connectivity in an ecologically and economically important fish

How to identify the drivers of population connectivity remains a fundamental question in ecology and evolution. Answering this question can be challenging in aquatic environments where dynamic lake and ocean currents coupled with high levels of dispersal and gene flow can decrease the utility of modern population genetic tools. To address this challenge, we used RAD-Seq to genotype 959 yellow perch ( Perca flavescens ), a species with an ~40-day pelagic larval duration (PLD), collected from 20 sites circumscribing Lake Michigan. We also developed a novel, integrative approach that couples detailed biophysical models with eco-genetic agent-based models to generate “predictive” values of genetic differentiation. By comparing predictive and empirical values of genetic differentiation, we estimated the relative contributions for known drivers of population connectivity (e.g., currents, behavior, PLD). For the main basin populations (i.e., the largest contiguous portion of the lake), we found that high gene flow led to low overall levels of genetic differentiation among populations ( F ST = 0.003). By far the best predictors of genetic differentiation were connectivity matrices that were derived from periods of time when there were strong and highly dispersive currents. Thus, these highly dispersive currents are driving the patterns of population connectivity in the main basin. We also found that populations from the northern and southern main basin are slightly divergent from one another, while those from Green Bay and the main basin are highly divergent ( F ST = 0.11). By integrating biophysical and eco-genetic models with genome-wide data, we illustrate that the drivers of population connectivity can be identified in high gene flow systems.

Lake Michigan↗

USGS2023

Can hydrological models benefit from using global soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and runoff products as calibration targets?

Hydrological models are usually calibrated to in-situ streamflow observations with reasonably long and uninterrupted records. This is challenging for poorly gage or ungaged basins where such information is not available. Even for gaged basins, the single-objective calibration to gaged streamflow cannot guarantee reliable forecasts because, as has been documented elsewhere, the inverse problem is mathematically ill-posed. Therefore, the inclusion of other observations, and the reproduction of other hydrological variables beyond streamflow, become critical components of accurate hydrological forecasting. In this study, six single- and multi-objective model calibration schemes based on different combinations of gaged streamflow, global-scale gridded soil moisture, actual evapotranspiration (ET), and runoff products are used for the calibration of a process-based hydrological model for 20 catchments located within the Lake Michigan watershed, of the Laurentian Great Lakes. Results show that the addition of gridded soil moisture to gaged streamflow in model calibration improves the ET simulation performance for most of the catchments, leading to the overall best-performing models. The monthly streamflow simulation performance for the experiments using gridded runoff products to inform the model is outperformed by those using the gaged streamflow, but the discrepancy is mitigated with increasing catchment scale. A new visualization method that effectively synthesizes model performance for the simulations of streamflow, soil moisture, and ET was also proposed. Based on the method, it is revealed that the streamflow simulation performance is relatively weak for baseflow-dominated catchments; overall, the 20 catchment models simulate streamflow and ET better than soil moisture.

Lake Michigan↗

USGS2023

Status and trends of pelagic and benthic prey fish populations in Lake Michigan, 2022

Fall bottom trawl (fall BT) and lakewide acoustic (AC) surveys are conducted annually to generate indices of pelagic and benthic prey fish densities in Lake Michigan. The fall BT survey has been conducted each fall since 1973 using 12-m trawls at depths ranging from 9 to 110 m at fixed locations distributed across seven transects; this survey estimates densities of seven prey fish species [i.e., Alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus), Bloater ( Coregonus hoyi ), Rainbow Smelt ( Osmerus mordax ), Deepwater Sculpin ( Myoxocephalus thompsonii ), Slimy Sculpin ( Cottus cognatus ), Round Goby ( Neogobius melanostomus ), Ninespine Stickleback ( Pungitius pungitius )] as well as age-0 Yellow Perch ( Perca flavescens ) and large (> 350 mm) Burbot ( Lota lota ). The AC survey has been conducted each late summer/early fall since 2004, and the 2022 survey consisted of 26 transects [570 km total (354 miles)] covering bottom depths ranging from 5 to 255 m and 37 midwater trawl tows above bottom depths ranging 5 to 232 m; this survey estimates densities of three prey fish species (i.e., Alewife, Bloater, and Rainbow Smelt). The data generated from these surveys are used to estimate various population parameters that are, in turn, used by state and tribal agencies in managing Lake Michigan fish stocks. In spring of 2022, an additional spring bottom trawl survey (spring BT) was implemented across six of the transects sampled in the fall and sites ranged in depth from 9 to 236 m. The goal of the spring BT was to explore seasonal differences in biomass density and distributions of key prey species, mostly notably Alewife. Total prey fish biomass density from the spring BT was 2.1 kg/ha. For the AC survey, total biomass density of prey fish equaled 6.2 kg/ha, 37% higher than the long-term average (2004-2021) of 4.5 kg/ha and 0.43 kg/ha higher than the 2021 estimate. For the fall BT, total biomass density of prey fish equaled 8.7 kg/ha, the highest value since 2013 and 21% higher than average value from 20042021 (6.8 kg/ha). The 2022 fall BT biomass density was still well below the average over the entirety of the time series (1973-2021; 34.3 kg/ha). Over the period both surveys have been conducted (2004-2021), total biomass density has trended downward in the fall BT (despite a high 2022 estimate) and remained relatively stable in the AC survey. Bloater was the dominant species (by biomass) among prey fishes in both the spring and fall BT, while the AC survey reported co-dominance of Bloater and Alewife. Mean biomass of yearling and older (YAO) Alewife was 0.38 kg/ha in the spring BT, 3.0 kg/ha in the AC survey, and 0.10 in the fall BT. Alewife were aggregated in deepwater habitats in the spring of 2022 (> 110 m). Since 2014, catchability of YAO Alewives for the fall BT has been substantially lower than the AC survey. Results of the 2022 spring BT do not suggest that catchability is substantially higher in the spring than the fall. Comparing the acoustic estimate to previous years, YAO Alewife biomass was 40% higher than the average from 2004-2021. An age-7 fish was recorded for the first time since 2009. Despite the rare catches of older fish, the Alewife age distribution still appears truncated, with age-1 fish as the most represented age class in all three surveys. Numeric density of age-0 Alewife from the AC survey was 7 fish/ha in 2022, which is the third lowest in the time series and well below the longterm mean of 452 fish/ha. Biomass density of large (≥120 mm) Bloater was 2.7 kg/ha in the AC survey and 4.4 kg/ha in the fall BT - each at least an order of magnitude lower than what was estimated by the fall BT between 1981 and 1998. Following a record high year in 2021 (1,037 fish/ha), the numeric density of small (<120 mm) Bloater was only 15 fish/ha in the AC survey. Meanwhile, small Bloater density estimated in the fall BT was 261 fish/ha, the highest value since 1990 and likely partially reflective of a large 2021 year-class. Biomass density of large Rainbow Smelt (≥90 mm) was 0.29 kg/ha in the AC survey and 0.12 kg/ha in the fall BT survey, continuing the trend of low Rainbow Smelt biomass that has been observed since 2001. Numeric density of small (<90 mm) Rainbow Smelt was 21 fish/ha in the AC survey and 2.7 fish/ha in the fall BT, indicating a weak year-class. All four prey fish species sampled only by the fall BT indicated below average biomass densities. Deepwater Sculpin biomass density was estimated at 0.41 kg/ha, which makes 12 of the past 13 years when biomass was <1 kg/ha. Slimy Sculpin was estimated at 0.10 kg/ha, the highest estimate since 2016 but still only 25% of the long-term average. Round Goby was estimated at 1.3 kg/ha, above the average biomass of 0.82 kg/ha since 2008 but similar to intermittent high values observed throughout the dataset. Ninespine Stickleback density was 1.5 fish/ha. Burbot biomass remained near record low levels, and no age-0 Yellow Perch were caught, indicating a weak Yellow Perch year-class in 2022.

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