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Research about Florida

Source-linked reports with geographic coverage including Florida.

At least 181 records · Page 10Linked to original sources
USGS2023

Satellite tracking reveals use of Biscayne National Park by sea turtles tagged in multiple locations

Although historical observations date back to the 1800’s, there is little information on sea turtle occupancy within Biscayne National Park (BNP). The park is located along the Florida reef tract and is dominated by the Gulfstream, which acts as a corridor for many marine animals. Here we used satellite telemetry to determine areas of use in BNP for two species of imperiled sea turtles, loggerhead ( Caretta caretta ) and green ( Chelonia mydas ) turtles. We included data for turtles tagged between 2009–2021 at sites both within park waters and in five locations outside the park boundary; individuals were captured both in the water and on land. We tagged 60 individuals (female, n = "> = 48; male, n = "> = 3; immature, n = "> = 9); loggerheads (n = "> = 33) ranged in size from 66.2 to 109.9 cm CCL (curved carapace length) and green turtles (n = "> = 27) ranged in size from 39.1 to 111.9 cm CCL. We used behavioral switching state-space modeling (SSM) to obtain daily predicted positions for each turtle, classified turtle behavior within the park as either foraging, migration, or both foraging and migration, and summarized high-use areas for each species across all months of the year. Turtles used park waters year-round, with concentrated use of deeper waters during seasonal migrations. Across all 60 turtles, 21 spent their tracking time foraging within BNP boundaries and 30 used the park as part of their migratory pathway; five turtles used the park for both foraging and migration, and the remaining four had SSM points very close to the park. Loggerhead migration occurred from February through November, whereas green turtle migration was concentrated in August. Both turtle species exhibited high overlap (i.e., usage) with seagrass habitat. These findings are relevant as managers consider strategies to minimize anthropogenic impacts to resident and migratory sea turtles using park waters.

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USGS2023

Dietary niche of three omnivorous turtle species in a northern Florida river: Insights from stable isotope analysis

Macrochelys suwanniensis (Suwannee Alligator Snapping Turtle) coexists with 2 other native large omnivorous turtle species ( Chelydra serpentina [Snapping Turtle] and Trachemys scripta scripta [Yellow-bellied Slider]) in a 9-km section of the Santa Fe River in northern Florida. A major shift in dominant submersed aquatic vegetation prompted us to quantify trophic position and niche overlap among these 3 species. Here, we examine carbon and nitrogen isotopic values of these turtles and their potential food resources within the changing riverine system. We provide evidence of low isotopic niche overlap between M. suwanniensis and C. serpentina , whereas T. s. scripta occupied a discrete niche having lower carbon and nitrogen values.

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USGS2023

Quality of thermal refuges influences use by the cold-intolerant Florida manatee

ABSTRACT: Thermal refuges are habitats used by species for behavioral thermoregulation. These habitats can be highly dynamic and are often influenced by fluctuations in local climate. When protected species require thermal refuges, it is necessary to identify stable and high-quality areas by evaluating species use in response to variation in thermal refuge quality. Here, we assessed behavioral thermoregulation in the Florida manatee Trichechus manatus latirostris , a cold-intolerant marine mammal. Using metrics from ectotherm physiology, we evaluated thermal quality of 2 refuge types (passive thermal basins, natural springs) in 2 areas of their distribution. Thermal refuge quality was assessed with respect to the lower critical threshold of the manatee (20°C) and the surrounding ambient temperatures and compared between refuge types. We used GPS locations of manatees to quantify visits to refuges and calculated total visit duration in each refuge by individual manatees. At natural springs, we found a negative correlation between visit duration and ambient temperature during cold weather; visit duration also increased with the temperature differential between the spring and the lower critical thermal threshold. Visit duration at passive thermal basins was negatively correlated with the thermal differential between the refuge and the lower critical thermal threshold. The relationship between thermal refuge quality and time-use metrics sheds light on the potential implications of habitat degradation on animal energetics and behavior. Given these results, focusing on potential key refuges in each system may inform targeted management and habitat restoration efforts to maintain adequate thermal refuge environments for this listed species.

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USGS2023

Natives bite back: Depredation and mortality of invasive juvenile Burmese pythons (Python bivittatus) in the Greater Everglades Ecosystem

Burmese pythons (Python bivittatus Kuhl, 1820) are one of the world’s largest snake species, making them a highly successful and biologically damaging invasive predator in the Greater Everglades Ecosystem, Florida, USA. Though we have knowledge of python diet within this system, we understand very little of other interactions with native species. Effects native species have on invasive pythons, especially in the juvenile size class, are of particular interest as the prevalence of mortalities would inform potential population growth and trophic dynamics with native prey species. Native ophiophagous predators in Florida feed on smaller native snake species and it is unknown if they consistently recognize similarly sized juvenile invasive pythons as prey items. Using radiotelemetry, we found at least four native species within Big Cypress National Preserve that were implicated in juvenile python deaths, including three Florida cottonmouths (Agkistrodon conanti Gloyd, 1969), five American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis Daudin, 1802), one hispid cotton rat (Sigmodon hispidus Say and Ord, 1825), and three mesomammals. One mortality was the result of an attempt to subdue a prey item 106% the size of the python, constituting the largest predator:prey size ratio ever reported in this size class. This finding may indicate that phenotypic variation in individual juvenile pythons includes behavior that could be maladaptive within the novel Florida environment. Here we describe some of the first confirmed cases of non-anthropogenic mortality in juvenile Burmese pythons in Florida and present evidence that invasive pythons in this size class are now being incorporated into the diets of native species in its invasive range Burmese pythons (Python bivittatus Kuhl, 1820) are one of the world’s largest snake species, making them a highly successful and biologically damaging invasive predator in the Greater Everglades Ecosystem, Florida, USA. Though we have knowledge of python diet within this system, we understand very little of other interactions with native species. Effects native species have on invasive pythons, especially in the juvenile size class, are of particular interest as the prevalence of mortalities would inform potential population growth and trophic dynamics with native prey species. Native ophiophagous predators in Florida feed on smaller native snake species and it is unknown if they consistently recognize similarly sized juvenile invasive pythons as prey items. Using radiotelemetry, we found at least four native species within Big Cypress National Preserve that were implicated in juvenile python deaths, including three Florida cottonmouths (Agkistrodon conanti Gloyd, 1969), five American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis Daudin, 1802), one hispid cotton rat (Sigmodon hispidus Say and Ord, 1825), and three mesomammals. One mortality was the result of an attempt to subdue a prey item 106% the size of the python, constituting the largest predator:prey size ratio ever reported in this size class. This finding may indicate that phenotypic variation in individual juvenile pythons includes behavior that could be maladaptive within the novel Florida environment. Here we describe some of the first confirmed cases of non-anthropogenic mortality in juvenile Burmese pythons in Florida and present evidence that invasive pythons in this size class are now being incorporated into the diets of native species in its invasive range.

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USGS2023

Evidence of a load-lightening helper effect in Florida Scrub-Jays: Implications for translocation

The Florida Scrub-Jay ( Aphelocoma coerulescens ) is an imperiled cooperatively breeding species endemic to Florida scrub habitats. Translocation of non-reproductive helpers has been proposed as a conservation tool to increase population size and connectivity. However, the potential consequences of helper removal on the source population remain unclear because the benefits provided by helpers are complex and not consistently observed. We used nest monitoring and nest camera data to examine the effects of helpers on provisioning rates, nestling mass, nest survival, and productivity for 111 family groups at Ocala National Forest, which supports the largest remaining population of Florida Scrub-Jays. In groups with helpers, male breeders and helpers provisioned nestlings at higher rates than did female breeders. In contrast, provisioning rate of female breeders was reduced by half in groups with helpers compared to groups without helpers, revealing a load-lightening helper effect in this population. The compensatory benefit of helpers on maternal provisioning rates in this study may have easily been overlooked without the use of nest cameras. Helpers provisioned less and nestling mass was lower in 2019 than 2018. Helpers did not influence nestling mass, nest survival, or nest productivity, suggesting that the effect of helpers on these metrics is either minimal or masked by other environmental factors. Future study is needed to understand how indirect helper benefits may affect female breeder survival and future productivity. In the meantime, the load-lightening effect of helpers on maternal provisioning and its potential effect on the donor population should be acknowledged when evaluating the net benefits of future translocation projects proposing the removal of helpers.

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USGS2023

Coastal acidification trends and controls in a subtropical estuary, Tampa Bay, Florida USA

Many coastal estuaries have experienced declines in pH over the past few decades due to coastal acidification. However, mean monthly water column pH values (collected during daylight hours) have increased in Tampa Bay, Florida over recent decades concurrent with seagrass recovery. We measured changes in carbonate system and water quality variables in Tampa Bay and the near-coastal Gulf of Mexico environment to quantify diurnal to seasonal trends, drivers, and controls of carbonate chemistry; identify exposure periods to low pH conditions; and to examine the potential for seagrasses to buffer acidification in Tampa Bay. Autonomous sensor packages deployed in Tampa Bay and the Gulf of Mexico from December 2017 to June 2020 recorded hourly measurements of seawater temperature, salinity, pressure, pH T (total scale), carbon dioxide (pCO 2 ), dissolved oxygen (DO), and photosynthetically active radiation. Results indicated strong temperature and biological influence on DO, pH T , and pCO 2 in Tampa Bay during the dry season, and only weak to moderate correlation of these variables with temperature and salinity during the wet season. Strong influence from biological processes during the wet season was coincident with spring-to-summer periods of maximum seagrass growth rates. Gulf of Mexico results indicated higher pH T and DO, and lower pCO 2 than in Tampa Bay, with similar but attenuated seasonal variation. Results suggest potential benefits from seagrass photosynthesis increasing pH T , DO, and decreasing pCO 2 in Tampa Bay, and delivery of high pH T , low pCO 2 Gulf of Mexico water to Tampa Bay during flood tides. Approximately 30% of pH T and pCO 2 data records collected in Tampa Bay were below pH T 7.900 and above pCO 2 of 600 μ atm, primarily during the wet season, indicating potential for dissolution of carbonate sediments that may also help buffer acidification conditions in Tampa.

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USGS2023

Mangrove habitat persistence and carbon vulnerability associated with increased nutrient loading and sea-level rise at Ding Darling National Wildlife Refuge (Sanibel Island, Florida, USA)

J.N. “Ding” Darling National Wildlife Refuge (DDNWR) is located on Sanibel Island along the southwestern coast of Florida, USA. Sanibel Island is heavily developed, but DDNWR provides protection for a large mangrove area that supports biodiversity and recreational opportunity. However, nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) eutrophication attributed to agriculture discharge along the Caloosahatchee River has affected the area’s aquatic habitat with algal blooms and may be causing untimely degradation of Sanibel’s mangrove forests. We launched a series of studies to understand how additional nutrient loading to the levels expected in the future might affect DDNWR’s mangrove resource. We experimentally fertilized selected mangrove forest areas with N fertilizer (+N; NH4) and P fertilizer (+P; P 2 O 5 ) for three years, and monitored soil surface elevation change, soil and pneumatophore CO 2 fluxes from respiration, mangrove tree sap flow from two species ( Avicennia germinans , Rhizophora mangle ), and individual tree and stand water use, from which we developed carbon (C) budgets for +N and +P vs. control simulations as applied to DDNWR’s 1112 ha mangrove area. Many of the measured response variables provided hints of subtle changes in response to +P rather than +N, which were compounded when scaled. From this, we found that additional P loading is expected to stimulate CO 2 uptake via net ecosystem exchange of C, likely pressing the system beyond metabolic capacity and leading to a projected 41% increase in lateral C export to the estuary. Additional lateral C export is concomitant to a reduction in vertical soil surface elevation with +P. Furthermore, an inability of DDNWR’s mangroves to bury additional P and a release of P-bound ions to lateral export may exacerbate estuarine eutrophication. We also modelled the effect of sea-level rise influences on DDNWR’s mangroves through 2100 using a soil cohort model (WARMER-Mangroves) and found that the mangroves may be resilient to current rates of sea-level rise into the future but may also be susceptible to moderate accelerations. Greater eutrophication could create additional vulnerabilities to mangrove submergence, especially to basin mangroves where P concentrations are high and already reducing soil surface elevations in some mangroves. Our results suggest that amelioration of current P concentrations and avoidance of additional P loading to Sanibel Island’s mangroves are management options to consider.

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USGS2023

2021–2022 Statewide Abundance Estimates for the Florida Manatee

Knowing the population size of Florida manatees ( Trichechus manatus latirostris ) is critical for conservation and management of this threatened species. Martin et al. (2015) and Hostetler et al. (2018) applied statistical models that incorporated multiple data sources to estimate the statewide abundance of manatees from aerial surveys f lown in 2011–2012 and 2015–2016. We conducted additional aerial surveys in 2021–2022 and applied similar models to provide an updated abundance estimate. This report serves as an update to Hostetler et al. (2018), with most of the text and methodology adapted from the previous report, and provides updated population estimates based on the newly available data. We estimate that the number of manatees in Florida in 2021–2022 was 9,790 (95% Bayesian credible interval 8,350–11,730), of which 4,630 (3,960–5,420) were on the west coast of Florida and 5,160 (3,940–6,980) were on the east coast. These estimates and the associated uncertainty, in addition to being of immediate value to wildlife managers, are essential new data for incorporation into integrated population models and population viability analyses. We also provide context for interpreting the new estimates and perspectives for future modeling improvements.

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USGS2022

New larger benthic foraminifera from the subsurface Lower to Middle Eocene Oldsmar Formation of southeastern Florida (USA)

We describe two larger benthic foraminiferal taxa collected from wells drilled in the subsurface Eocene rocks of southeastern Florida that are new to peninsular Florida and the Caribbean region. Saudia floridana n.sp. is characteristic of a foraminiferal assemblage, along with Helicostegina gyralis , wide forms of the Cushmania americana group, and Gunteria floridana , in an upper part of the Oldsmar Formation. Globogypsinoides browardensis n.gen. n.sp. occurs in a second foraminiferal assemblage, along with Borelis cf. floridanus , Coskinolina cf. yucatanensis , and as-yet undescribed large rotaliids, in a middle part of the Oldsmar Formation. The foraminiferal assemblage of the middle Oldsmar unit is ascribed an Ypresian age and the assemblage of the upper Oldsmar unit a Lutetian age. These two assemblages indicate inner shelf water depths of 40 m or less on the Florida Platform during the Early to Middle Eocene deposition of the middle to upper part of the Oldsmar Formation.

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USGS2022

Soil elevation change in mangrove forests and marshes of the greater Everglades: A regional synthesis of surface elevation table-marker horizon (SET-MH) data

Coastal wetlands adapt to rising seas via feedbacks that build soil elevation, which lead to wetland stability. However, accelerated rates of sea-level rise can exceed soil elevation gain, leading to wetland instability and loss. Thus, there is a pressing need to better understand regional and landscape variability in rates of wetland soil elevation change. Here, we conducted a regional synthesis of surface elevation change data from mangrove forests and coastal marshes in the iconic Greater Everglades region of south Florida (USA). We integrated data from 51 sites in which a total of 122 surface elevation table-marker horizon (SET-MH) stations were installed. Several of these sites have been periodically monitored since the 1990s and are among the oldest SET-MH datasets in the world. Rates of surface elevation change ranged from −9.8 to 15.2 mm year −1 , indicating some wetlands are keeping pace with sea-level rise while others are at risk of submergence and conversion to open water. Vertical accretion rates ranged from 0.6 to 12.9 mm year −1 , and subsurface change rates ranged from −13.5 to 8.6 mm year −1 . Rates of surface elevation change were positively related to subsurface change but not vertical accretion. There were no significant relationships between rates of surface elevation change and elevation (NAVD 88) or rates of sea-level rise. Site-specific examples indicate that hurricanes, plant productivity, hydrologic exchange, and proximity to sediment and nutrient inputs are critical but confounding drivers of surface elevation change dynamics in the Greater Everglades region. Collectively, our results reinforce the value of long-term SET-MH data that incorporate spatial variability for advancing understanding of surface elevation change dynamics in coastal wetlands.

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USGS2022

Climate-modulated range expansion of reef-building coral communities off southeast Florida during the late Holocene

The Holocene reefs off southeast Florida provide unique insights into the biogeographical and ecological response of western Atlantic coral reefs to past climate change that can be used to evaluate future climate impacts. However, previous studies have focused on millennial-scale change during the stable mid-Holocene, making it difficult to make inferences about the impact of shorter-term variability that is relevant to modern climate warming. Using uranium-series dating of newly discovered subfossil coral rubble deposits, we establish a new high-resolution record of coral community development off southeast Florida during a period of variable climate in the late Holocene. Our results indicate that coral communities dominated by reef-building Acropora palmata and Orbicella spp. persisted in the nearshore environments off southeast Florida ~75 km north of their primary historical ranges between ~3500 and 1800 years before present. This timing coincides with regional warming at the northern extent of the Atlantic Warm Pool, suggesting a likely link between regional oceanographic climate and the expansion of cold-sensitive reef-building coral communities to the high-latitude reefs off southeast Florida. These findings not only extend the record of coral-reef development in southeast Florida into the late Holocene, but they also have important implications for future range expansions of reef-building coral communities in response to modern climate change.

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USGS2022

Divergent Serpentoviruses in free-ranging invasive pythons and native colubrids in southern Florida, United States

Burmese python ( Python bivittatus ) is an invasive snake that has significantly affected ecosystems in southern Florida, United States. Aside from direct predation and competition, invasive species can also introduce nonnative pathogens that can adversely affect native species. The subfamily Serpentovirinae (order Nidovirales ) is composed of positive-sense RNA viruses primarily found in reptiles. Some serpentoviruses, such as shingleback nidovirus, are associated with mortalities in wild populations, while others, including ball python nidovirus and green tree python nidovirus can be a major cause of disease and mortality in captive animals. To determine if serpentoviruses were present in invasive Burmese pythons in southern Florida, oral swabs were collected from both free-ranging and long-term captive snakes. Swabs were screened for the presence of serpentovirus by reverse transcription PCR and sequenced. A total serpentovirus prevalence of 27.8% was detected in 318 python samples. Of the initial swabs from 172 free-ranging pythons, 42 (24.4%) were positive for multiple divergent viral sequences comprising four clades across the sampling range. Both sex and snout-vent length were statistically significant factors in virus prevalence, with larger male snakes having the highest prevalence. Sampling location was statistically significant in circulating virus sequence. Mild clinical signs and lesions consistent with serpentovirus infection were observed in a subset of sampled pythons. Testing of native snakes (n = 219, 18 species) in part of the python range found no evidence of python virus spillover; however, five individual native snakes (2.3%) representing three species were PCR positive for unique, divergent serpentoviruses. Calculated pairwise uncorrected distance analysis indicated the newly discovered virus sequences likely represent three novel genera in the subfamily Serpentovirinae. This study is the first to characterize serpentovirus in wild free-ranging pythons or in any free-ranging North America reptile. Though the risk these viruses pose to the invasive and native species is unknown, the potential for spillover to native herpetofauna warrants further investigation.

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USGS2022

Verification of irrigated agricultural land acreage in 55 counties in Florida, 2013–21

In 2012, the Florida Legislature mandated that the Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services (FDACS), Office of Agricultural Water Policy, promote an agricultural water-conservation program that would include a cost-share program and best management practices and that would aid the five water management districts in the development of consistent agricultural water-supply planning, assisting the districts in projecting future agricultural water needs and promoting consistency in water-use estimates among the districts. Beginning in 2013, the FDACS created a series of agriculture and irrigated land-use maps for all Florida counties for the purpose of estimating current and forecasting future water demands. These maps, produced and updated periodically by The Balmoral Group, were based on baseline data from 2010 and have been updated with a combination of satellite images and land-use data from water management districts in subsequent years (2013–21) to help create a statewide database of irrigated agricultural lands. The purpose of this multiyear cooperative study between the U.S. Geological Survey and the FDACS is to provide (1) a detailed geospatial database of verified irrigated field locations with selected attributes as ArcGIS shapefiles and (2) aggregated acreage totals by crop type for all or parts of 55 of the 67 counties within Florida. Ten of the remaining 12 counties were fully mapped by the St. John’s River Water Management District in 2015; the other 2 counties were not mapped because they contained very little irrigated agricultural land. Irrigated agricultural fields identified on The Balmoral Group baseline maps for each of the 55 counties were either physically observed by U.S. Geological Survey or were verified through water management district’s consumptive water-use permit database. A select group of counties were chosen to be field verified each year, concluding with a total of 55 counties in Florida field verified between October 2013 and August 2021. The results provided from this multiyear study can help increase the accuracy of irrigation water-use estimates for counties in Florida.

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USGS2022

Size distribution and reproductive phenology of the invasive Burmese python (Python molurus bivittatus) in the Greater Everglades Ecosystem, Florida, USA

The design of successful invasive species control programs is often hindered by the absence of basic demographic data on the targeted population. Establishment of invasive Burmese pythons ( Python molurus bivittatus ) in the Greater Everglades Ecosystem, Florida USA has led to local precipitous declines (> 90%) of mesomammal populations and is also a major threat to native populations of reptiles and birds. Efforts to control this species are ongoing but are hampered by the lack of access to and information on the expected biological patterns of pythons in southern Florida. We present data from more than 4,000 wild Burmese pythons that were removed in southern Florida over 26 years (1995–2021), the most robust dataset representing this invasive population to date. We used these data to characterize Burmese python size distribution, size at maturity, clutch size, and seasonal demographic and reproductive trends. We broadened the previously described size ranges by sex and, based on our newly defined size-stage classes, showed that males are smaller than females at sexual maturity, confirmed a positive correlation between maternal body size and potential clutch size, and developed predictive equations to facilitate demographic predictions. We also refined the annual breeding season (approx.100 days December into March), oviposition timing (May), and hatchling emergence and dispersal period (July through October) using correlations of capture morphometrics with observations of seasonal gonadal recrudescence (resurgence) and regression. Determination of reproductive output and timing can inform population models and help managers arrest population growth by targeting key aspects of python life history. These results define characteristics of the species in Florida and provide an enhanced understanding of the ecology and reproductive biology of Burmese pythons in their invasive Everglades range.

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USGS2022

Assessing per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) in sediments and fishes in a large, urbanized estuary and the potential human health implications

The primary source of chronic exposures to per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) in humans is through the ingestion of contaminated foods and drinking water, with fish and other seafood being a major contributor. Nevertheless, there is scant literature on the dietary exposure to PFASs for the general United States (U.S.) population. The Tampa Bay (Florida, USA) region has the highest population density in the State and communities and their attendant support services are arrayed in an urban to semi-rural continuum from the head of the Bay to the ocean mouth. Tampa Bay supports productive recreational and commercial fisheries, providing a diverse community of species. A variety of potential PFAS sources surround Tampa Bay including airports, industry, wastewater treatment plants, fire-fighting training areas and military installations. The objective of this study is to quantify PFASs in sediment and fishes collected from Tampa Bay to further estimate human health risks from dietary exposures. Sediment ( n = 17) and fish (24 species, n = 140) were collected throughout Tampa Bay in 2020 and 2021 and analyzed for 25 PFAS compounds. Concentrations of PFASs in sediments and edible tissues of fish ranged from 36.8 to 2,990 ng kg -1 (dry weight) and 307 to 33,600 ng kg -1 (wet weight), respectively. Generally, levels were highest in Old Tampa Bay and decreased south towards the Gulf of Mexico. Profiles in both matrices were generally dominated by perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS) with variations by location. Estimated human health risks from the consumption of contaminated fish collected in Tampa Bay exceeded concentration thresholds for minimum risk levels (MRLs) and tolerable weekly intake (TWIs) values for adults and youths. Additionally, concentrations of PFOS in edible fish tissues of several recreationally important species collected in Tampa Bay exceeded consumption guideline levels established by several governmental agencies. In the current context, the elevated levels of PFAS in Tampa Bay and the exceedances of available thresholds for potential human health risks are a cause for concern and justify a more intensive examination especially for more heavily utilized species, particularly those used in subsistence-level fishing, which, as elsewhere may be significantly under documented.

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USGS2022

Development of projected depth-duration frequency curves (2050–89) for south Florida

Planning stormwater projects requires estimates of current and future extreme precipitation depths for events with specified return periods and durations. In this study, precipitation data from four downscaled climate datasets are used to determine changes in precipitation depth-duration-frequency curves from the period 1966–2005 to the period 2050–89 primarily on the basis of Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. The four downscaled climate datasets are (1) the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) dataset, (2) the Localized Constructed Analogs (LOCA) dataset, (3) the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) dataset, and (4) the Jupiter Intelligence Weather Research and Forecasting Model (JupiterWRF) dataset. Change factors—multiplicative changes in expected extreme precipitation magnitude from current to future period—were computed for grid cells from the downscaled climate datasets containing National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Atlas 14 stations in central and south Florida. Change factors for specific durations and return periods may be used to scale the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Atlas 14 historical depth-duration-frequency values to the period 2050–89 on the basis of changes in extreme precipitation derived from downscaled climate datasets. Model culling was implemented to select downscaled climate models that best captured observed historical patterns of precipitation extremes in central and south Florida. Overall, a large variation in change factors across downscaled climate datasets was found, with change factors generally greater than one and increasing with return period. In general, median change factors were higher for the south-central Florida climate region (1.05–1.55 depending on downscaled climate dataset, duration, and return period) than for the south Florida climate region (1–1.4 depending on downscaled climate dataset, duration, and return period) when considering best performing models for both areas, indicating a projected overall increase in future extreme precipitation events.

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USGS2022

Environmental DNA metabarcoding read numbers and their variability predict species abundance, but weakly in non-dominant species

Metabarcoding of environmental DNA (eDNA) provides more comprehensive, efficient, and non-invasive sampling of biological communities than conventional methods. However, limitations of metabarcoding include taxon-specific biases in amplification and sequencing that distort assessments of community composition. Further, hyper-abundant species may disproportionately affect community composition assessments and impair the detection of rare species (i.e., “species masking”). In this study, we examine methodological approaches to improve eDNA metabarcoding assessments of community structure using fish community diversity in a pond in south Florida using MiFish primers modified to improve cichlid detection. Mitochondrial 12S eDNA amplicon sequencing via Illumina NovaSeq was analyzed using the DADA2 model-based exact sequence inference. The fish species and abundances in the system were recorded during piscicide treatment and subsequent native species restocking. Our results demonstrate that (1) ultra-high-throughput sequencing on the newer NovaSeq patterned flow cell provided reliable detection of very rare taxa—with detections of a single individual. (2) Read numbers were significantly correlated to the total surface area of the fish population, and numerical abundance to a lesser degree; however, dominant taxa largely drove those correlations, and simulations showed that biases in the most abundant taxa will have disproportionate effects on the strength of the correlation. (3) The read number coefficient of variation for each species across spatially separated replicate samples may provide less biased abundance estimates compared with estimates based on average read counts. Finally, (4) exact sequence inference detected multiple haplotypes and population genetic diversity within a species. Our results demonstrate the real-world metabarcoding capacity to reveal community structure and reliably detect rare species and unique haplotypes and shows that read numbers can, to a limited degree, be used to infer the size of fish populations. Careful examination of detection biases among dominant taxa and spatial variation among samples are required for rigorous eDNA-based estimates of community structure. Our results demonstrate the capacity of NovaSeq metabarcoding to reveal freshwater fish community structure and reliably detect rare species and unique haplotypes. Metabarcoding read numbers were significantly correlated to the total surface area of the fish species' populations, allowing for conditional inferences of population sizes. However, dominant taxa largely drove those correlations, and simulations indicated that biases toward the most abundant taxa will have disproportionate effects on the strength of the correlation.

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