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Research about Colorado River Basin

Source-linked reports with geographic coverage including Colorado River Basin.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Predicting burn severity for integration with post-fire debris-flow hazard assessment: A case study from the Upper Colorado River Basin, USA

Background: Burn severity significantly increases the likelihood and volume of post-wildfire debris flows. Pre-fire severity predictions can expedite mitigation efforts because precipitation contributing to these hazards often occurs shortly after wildfires, leaving little time for post-fire planning and management. Aim: The aim of this study was to predict burn severity using pre-fire conditions of individual wildfire events and estimate potential post-fire debris flow to unburned areas. Methods: We used random forests to model dNBR from pre-fire weather, fuels, topography, and remotely sensed data. We validated our model predictions against post-fire observations and potential post-fire debris-flow hazard estimates. Key results: Fuels, pre-fire weather, and topography were important predictors of burn severity, although predictor importance varied between fires. Post-fire debris-flow hazard rankings from predicted burn severity (pre-fire) were similar to hazard assessments based on observed burn severity (post-fire). Conclusion: Predicted burn severity can serve as an input to post-fire debris-flow models before wildfires occur, antecedent to standard post-fire burn severity products. Assessing a larger set of fires under disparate conditions and landscapes will be needed to refine predictive models. Implications: Burn severity models based on pre-fire conditions enable the prediction of fire effects and identification of potential hazards to prioritise response and mitigation.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming

Colorado River Basin Actionable and Strategic Integrated Science and Technology Project—Science strategy

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducts a wide variety of science that improves understanding of droughts and their effects on ecosystems and society. This work includes data collection and monitoring of aquatic and terrestrial systems; assessment and analysis of patterns, trends, drivers, and impacts of drought; development and application of predictive models; and delivery of information and decision-making tools to stakeholders. Stakeholders, which include Federal, Tribal, State, and local agencies, nongovernmental organizations, and others, use this information to anticipate, assess, react to, and mitigate drought conditions and impacts. There is no obvious near-term solution to reduce the frequency and severity of droughts or to mitigate drought impacts. Multidecadal drought is a “grand challenge” that benefits from integration of existing technolo­gies, data, knowledge, and models across related and dispa­rate disciplines, facilitated by new science and technology. In response, the USGS initiated a new integrated-science approach in the Colorado River Basin in 2020. The Colorado River Basin was specifically selected because of concerns about future drought and its consequences for the region. This document explains how the Colorado River Basin Actionable and Strategic Integrated Science and Technology (ASIST) project extends and enhances the science supported by USGS Mission Areas and Programs and articulates scientific gaps and stakeholder needs to identify and reduce drought risks. The approach seeks to answer complex Earth science questions developed in partner­ship with stakeholders about severe long-term drought. An inte­grated approach is required to tackle these complex questions, which any single science discipline cannot answer on its own. In addition to increased understanding of drought and drought effects in complex systems, the Colorado River Basin ASIST project was designed to improve efficiencies through rapid location of a broad array of data sources, assembly of model-ready multidisciplinary data, and delivery of actionable science to stakeholders at the speeds and scales needed for deci­sion making. The project team identified the following actions needed for USGS to implement and advance an integrated science approach in the Colorado River Basin: (1) engage with stakeholders to document their needs and iteratively co-produce science and science delivery tools to address these needs, (2) integrate monitoring and observation systems developed by USGS and other agencies that track droughts and their effects, (3) collect and provide analysis-ready data to support integrated applications, (4) integrate data and model connections to predict multiple drought impacts, (5) conduct multidisciplinary coor­dination to improve interpretations, (6) leverage the knowledge base across USGS to enhance decision making, and (7) support the development of new integrated science approaches and technologies that provide analysis and management tools that can be used to adapt to the effects of drought in the Colorado River Basin. Proposals for initial short-term use-case projects were solicited, a subset of which was selected for funding to test implementation of these actions. Additionally, the project organized and convened a series of science and technology collaboration workshops in the USGS focused on challenges that were identified and prioritized by the short-term use-case projects and during the initial stakeholder analysis. These work­shops were designed to bring together diverse perspectives to discuss science and technology challenges, stakeholder needs, capabilities, and knowledge gaps, with the goal of determin­ing how the USGS can address challenges, identify future opportunities for continued engagement between participants, and inform the next steps for the Colorado River Basin ASIST project. Continuing to collaboratively engage with a wide range of stakeholders using an integrated approach will provide a suitable foundation of data and tools to formulate actionable intelligence for predicting droughts and informing adaptation to the effects of long-term drought in a holistic, timely, and effective manner.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico,

U.S. Geological Survey Colorado River Basin Actionable and Strategic Integrated Science and Technology (ASIST)—Information Management Technology Plan

Introduction More than 840 publications, 575 data releases, and 330 project web pages from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) pertain to the Colorado River Basin. Limited interconnections between Colorado River Basin publications, data, and web pages restrict the ability to synthesize and interpret scientific resources. Currently, these pieces are spread across multiple isolated locations, internal systems, data repositories, and local offices. The increasing size, complexity, and diversity of Colorado River Basin data creates additional need for integration. These different data types—including discrete, continuous, aerial, remote sensing, geophysical, geospatial, and other types in varied formats—are collected over numerous time and space scales and require data-intensive science and technology to integrate. Information management technology (IMT) resources are enterprise capabilities that the USGS workforce can leverage at multiple scales with consistent interoperable solutions to better facilitate integrated science. The USGS 21st Century Science Strategy directs the USGS to establish enterprise IMT capabilities that support integrated work through interoperable software and database solutions at multiple scales. This Information Management Technology Plan identifies nine steps to leverage new and existing technologies, data, models, and scientific knowledge to support integrated science projects conducted across the Colorado River Basin. These steps are transferable to integrated-science studies in other locations.

Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, Wyomi

Addressing stakeholder science needs for integrated drought science in the Colorado River Basin

Stakeholders need scientific data, analysis, and predictions of how drought the will impact the Colorado River Basin in a format that is continuously updated, intuitive, and easily accessible. The Colorado River Basin Actionable and Strategic Integrated Science and Technology Pilot Project was formed to demonstrate the effectiveness of addressing complex problems through stakeholder involvement and use of 21st century technology to deliver integrated science. By identifying stakeholders and their science needs, the project team is better able to prioritize integrated science and design science delivery systems to support better adaptation and management measures for the long-term drought occurring in this basin. The project team is conducting outreach and coordination with stakeholders to meet the current and future science and technology needs in the basin and fulfill the USGS vision of integrated drought science throughout the Basin. As the USGS works to streamline the approach for sharing integrated drought science in the Colorado River Basin, the project is looking for input, involvement, and collaboration to ensure the science provided works for stakeholders.

Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, Wyomi

Assessing vegetation recovery from energy development using a dynamic reference approach

Ecologically relevant references are useful for evaluating ecosystem recovery, but references that are temporally static may be less useful when environmental conditions and disturbances are spatially and temporally heterogeneous. This challenge is particularly acute for ecosystems dominated by sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.), where communities may require decades to recover from disturbance. We demonstrated application of a dynamic reference approach to studying sagebrush recovery using three decades of sagebrush cover estimates from remote sensing (1985–2018). We modelled recovery on former oil and gas well pads ( n = 1200) across southwestern Wyoming, USA, relative to paired references identified by the Disturbance Automated Reference Toolset. We also used quantile regression to account for unmodelled heterogeneity in recovery, and projected recovery from similar disturbance across the landscape. Responses to weather and site-level factors often differed among quantiles, and sagebrush recovery on former well pads increased more when paired reference sites had greater sagebrush cover. Little (<5%) of the landscape was projected to recover within 100 years for low to mid quantiles, and recovery often occurred at higher elevations with cool and moist annual conditions. Conversely, 48%–78% of the landscape recovered quickly (within 25 years) for high quantiles of sagebrush cover. Our study demonstrates advantages of using dynamic reference sites when studying vegetation recovery, as well as how additional inferences obtained from quantile regression can inform management.

Wyoming

Rocky Mountain Region Science Exchange 2020—EarthMAP and the Colorado River Basin

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Rocky Mountain Region (RMR) hosted USGS scientists, managers, program coordinators, and leadership team members for a virtual Science Exchange during September 15–17, 2020. The Science Exchange had 216 registered participants and included 48 talks over the 3-day period. Invited speakers presented information about the novel USGS Earth Monitoring, Analysis, and Prediction (EarthMAP) concept. Scientists in the RMR and other regions showcased their research and participated in discussions related to the EarthMAP concept and EarthMAP applications. In addition, the Colorado River Basin Pilot Project, the first formal EarthMAP pilot project, was unveiled during the Science Exchange. Many of the products designed during the RMR Science Exchange were done so with the EarthMAP – Colorado River Basin Pilot Project in mind. This report summarizes the organization and objectives of the Science Exchange, highlights key points from session presentations, panel discussions, and breakout sessions, and, most importantly, discusses momentum generated for the EarthMAP – Colorado River Basin Pilot Project.

Colorado River Basin

Hydropeaking intensity and dam proximity limit aquatic invertebrate diversity in the Colorado River Basin

River biodiversity is threatened globally by hydropower dams, and there is a need to understand how dam management favors certain species while filtering out others. We examined aquatic invertebrate communities within the tailwaters 0–24 km downstream of seven large hydropower dams in the Colorado River Basin of the western United States. We quantified aquatic invertebrate dominance, richness, abundance, and biomass at multiple locations within individual tailwaters and across the basin and identified biological community responses associated with dam operations and distance from dam. We found that each tailwater was dominated by 3–7 invertebrate taxa, accounting for 95% of total abundance. Half of these dominant taxa were non-insect, non-flying species and thus were unavailable to terrestrial consumers. Consistent with previous studies, aquatic insects and sensitive taxa were negatively associated with hydropeaking intensity (magnitude of daily flow fluctuations associated with hydropower generation), which limits the composition and potentially the quality of the invertebrate food base. While total invertebrate abundance and biomass did not change with increasing distance downstream from dams, insect and sensitive taxa richness, abundance, and biomass all increased, suggesting that impacts of hydropeaking are most acute immediately downstream of dams. Our results demonstrate that tailwaters experiencing hydropeaking support high abundances of aquatic invertebrate, but the diversity of these communities is low.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico,

Regional ensemble modeling reduces uncertainty for digital soil mapping

Recent country and continental-scale digital soil mapping efforts have used a single model to predict soil properties across large regions. However, different ecophysiographic regions within large-extent areas are likely to have different soil-landscape relationships so models built specifically for these regions may more accurately capture these relationships relative to a ‘global’ model. We ask the question: Is a single ‘global’ model sufficient or are regionally-specific models useful for accurate digital soil mapping? We test this question by modeling soil depth classes across the 432,000 km 2 upper Colorado River Basin in the Western USA using a single global model, multiple ecophysiographic models, and ensembles of the ecophysiographic models. Effective soil depth class observations ( n = 12,194) were derived from multiple soil databases. Fifty-seven environmental covariates were derived from a 30 m digital elevation model, climate data, satellite imagery, and aeroradiometric data. Three independent land classifications were used to stratify the area. Two expert-derived land classifications, USDA Major Land Resource Areas (MLRA) and US-EPA Level III ecoregions, divided the study area into multiple ecophysiographic regions based on vegetation and broad-scale physiographic differences. The third land classification divided the study area into broad landforms. Soil depth observations were split into separate training ( n = 10,470) and validation ( n = 1,724) datasets. First, a ‘global’ random forest model was used to model soil depth classes using all training observations and covariates. ‘Global’ denotes a model built with all training data across the extent of the area, not a model at world extent. Second, the land classifications were used to subset the observations into ecophysiographic sub-datasets and random forest models were refit for each region. Models fit by ecophysiographic region are referred to as regional models. Thirdly, predictions from each regional model were fused into regional-ensemble models. Accuracy, Brier scores, and Shannon’s entropy were used to compare model accuracy and uncertainty. Regional ecophysiographic models were also compared to models built for geographic areas that were defined solely to be approximately equal in area. Training dataset density and the imbalance ratio were investigated to determine if data characteristics influenced regional accuracy/uncertainty metrics. Accuracy for the global model using the validation set was 62.8%. Regional model accuracies ranged between 56.1% and 75.0%. We found: 1) useful inter-regional differences in global model accuracy were revealed when the global model was validated by region, 2) no consistent relationship between training observation density and accuracy/uncertainty metrics, 3) no meaningful differences in accuracy and uncertainty metrics between physiographic and geographic regions, 4) ensembles of regionally-specific models were approximately as accurate as global models, and 5) both region-specific models and ensembles of regional models were less uncertain than the global model. Overall, we recommend the use of soil depth class predictions made from MLRA regional ensemble models because this prediction had higher accuracy than the ecoregion ensemble model prediction, but lower uncertainty than both the global model and the landform ensemble model predictions. We answer our question: Ensembles of regionally-specific models are approximately as accurate as global models, but result in less uncertainty.

Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, Wyomi

Spatial population structure of a widespread aquatic insect in the Colorado River Basin: Evidence for a Hydropsyche oslari species complex

Structural connectivity and dispersal ability are important constraints on functional connectivity among populations. For aquatic organisms that disperse among stream corridors, the regional structure of a river network can, thus, define the boundaries of gene flow. In this study, we used mitochondrial DNA (mtCO1 barcoding gene) to examine the genetic diversity and population structure of a caddisfly with strong dispersal capabilities, Hydropsyche oslari (Trichoptera:Hydropsychidae), in the topologically-diverse Colorado River Basin. We expected to find less genetic differentiation among populations of H . oslari within the Upper Basin, which has a dense dendritic network of perennial tributaries that allow for greater potential dispersal and gene flow, than among populations within the arid and sparse river network of the Lower Basin. We also expected to find genetic differentiation among H. oslari in the Upper and Lower Basins because contemporary populations are geographically distant from each other and have been separated by a >300-km-long reservoir (Lake Powell) for ½ a century. Consistent with these predictions, we found that populations of H . oslari within the Upper Basin had more shared haplotypes and less nucleotide diversity (π = 0.001–0.008) than H . oslari within the Lower Basin ( F ST = 0.01, π = 0.014–0.028). However, populations were genetically more structured in the Upper Basin ( F ST = 0.47) than in the Lower Basin ( F ST = 0.01). We also found that populations in the Upper and Lower Basin are entirely genetically differentiated ( S nn = 1), suggesting that these 2 populations were isolated thousands of years before the 1963 closure of Glen Canyon Dam and subsequent filling of Lake Powell. The most similar haplotypes among the 2 basins represent a 5.4% difference, which indicates the presence of a species complex within H. oslari .

Colorado River Basin

Incorporating social-ecological considerations into basin-wide responses to climate change in the Colorado River Basin

During the last 50 years, construction of dams in the western United States declined. This is partly because of increasing recognition of diverse and unintended social-ecological consequences of dams. Today, resource managers are recognizing the wide array of tradeoffs and are including a more diverse group of stakeholders in decision making for individual dams. Yet decisions at the regional scale maintain a focus on a limited number of resources and objectives, leading to inefficient and inequitable outcomes. Social-ecological changes compounded by climate change challenge this management paradigm. Increasing water demands for humans and the environment and renewed interest in hydropower present opportunities for operations that include climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies while considering tradeoffs and equitable responses at the regional scale.

Colorado River Basin

Changing environmental gradients over forty years alter ecomorphological variation in Guadalupe Bass Micropterus treculii throughout a river basin

Understanding the degree of intraspecific variation within and among populations is a key aspect of predicting the capacity of a species to respond to anthropogenic disturbances. However, intraspecific variation is usually assessed at either limited temporal, but broad spatial scales or vice versa, which can make assessing changes in response to long-term disturbances challenging. We evaluated the relationship between the longitudinal gradient of changing flow regimes and land use/land cover patterns since 1980 and morphological variation of Guadalupe Bass Micropterus treculii throughout the Colorado River Basin of central Texas. The Colorado River Basin in Texas has experienced major alterations to the hydrologic regime due to changing land- and water-use patterns. Historical collections of Guadalupe Bass prior to rapid human-induced change present the unique opportunity to study the response of populations to varying environmental conditions through space and time. Morphological differentiation of Guadalupe Bass associated with temporal changes in flow regimes and land use/land cover patterns suggests that they are exhibiting intraspecific trait variability, with contemporary individuals showing increased body depth, in response to environmental alteration through time (specifically related to an increase in herbaceous land cover, maximum flows, and the number of low pulses and high pulses). Additionally, individuals from tributaries with increased hydrologic alteration associated with urbanization or agricultural withdrawals tended to have a greater distance between the anal and caudal fin. These results reveal trait variation that may help to buffer populations under conditions of increased urbanization and sprawl, human population growth, and climate risk, all of which impose novel selective pressures, especially on endemic species like Guadalupe Bass. Our results contribute an understanding of the adaptability and capacity of an endemic population to respond to expected future changes based on demographic or climatic projection.

Texas

Comparison of U.S. Geological Survey and Bureau of Reclamation water-use reporting in the Colorado River Basin

The use of water in the United States is arguably one of the most important factors determining water availability at any specific place and time. Numerous local, State, and Federal entities develop, compile, and report water-use data, which can lead to confusing or conflicting information. This report was authored jointly by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) to compare and contrast the two agencies’ water-use information programs in the Colorado River Basin. The report also describes the legal drivers for each program, clarifies confusing terminology, compares the methods used, and contrasts the information reported by each agency. This detailed comparison demonstrates that these two Federal agencies have different missions, different programmatic drivers, and different user communities, all of which lead to different approaches to water-use data collection, analysis, and reporting. This report highlights those differences and explains why the USGS and Reclamation programs exist and how the data serve different user communities. Even though the two water-use programs are different by design and purpose, the program comparison presented in this report has identified opportunities for closer coordination and sharing of information between the USGS and Reclamation, as well as program components where agency collaboration can improve water-use estimate methodologies. This comparison effort emphasizes that it is incumbent upon each agency to clearly define the meaning of the terms used and the appropriate application of the reported information to avoid confusion or the accidental misuse of the information. An additional benefit of this comparison effort is the formation of a joint USGS/Reclamation water-use team that will continue to investigate opportunities to expand and coordinate future water-use data compilation and reporting.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming

Estimates of water use and trends in the Colorado River Basin, Southwestern United States, 1985–2010

The Colorado River Basin (CRB) drains 246,000 square miles and includes parts of California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming, and all of Arizona (Basin States). This report contains water-use estimates by category of use for drainage basins (Hydrologic Unit Code 8; HUC‑8) within the CRB from 1985 to 2010, at 5-year intervals. Estimates for public supply, domestic, commercial, industrial, irrigation, livestock, mining, aquaculture, hydroelectric and thermoelectric power, and wastewater returns are tabulated as (1) water withdrawals from groundwater or surface‑water sources of fresh or saline quality, (2) water delivered for domestic use, (3) wastewater returns and instream use (hydroelectric), and (4) consumptive use, or water that is consumed (USGS definition) and not available for immediate reuse. Water transported outside of the CRB (interbasin transfers) is not included as part of withdrawals and are not accounted for in any category of use within the CRB. Total withdrawals in the CRB (excluding interbasin transfers) averaged about 17 million acre-feet (maf) from 1985 to 2010, peaked at about 17.76 maf in 2000, and reached their lowest levels of 16.43 maf in 1990. Interbasin transfers to serve mostly public-supply and irrigation needs outside of the CRB are reported for 2000, 2005, and 2010 only, and averaged 5.40 maf. More surface water was used in the CRB than groundwater, averaging about 78 percent of total withdrawals, and its use increased less than 2 percent from 1985 to 2010, while groundwater withdrawals decreased about 12 percent. From 1985 to 2010, surface water averaged 98 percent of withdrawals in the upper CRB, and about 59 percent in the lower CRB. Nearly all withdrawals were freshwater, but some saline groundwater was used for mining and self-supplied industrial. Interbasin transfers have a large effect on flows in the Colorado River and are listed in this report separately with no explanation of how the water is used outside of the CRB. There are 34 interbasin transfers that conveyed an estimated 5.83, 5.20, and 5.18 maf out of the CRB in 2000, 2005, and 2010, respectively. The largest interbasin transfers are in the lower CRB and convey surface water (Colorado River water) to southern California; these accounted for 80 to 84 percent of total interbasin transfers in the CRB from 2000 to 2010. Intrabasin transfers are conveyances of surface water that cross drainage basin or State boundaries in the CRB, but the water does not leave the CRB. There are many intrabasin transfers in the CRB, but this report lists 11 that are mostly in the State of Colorado. The largest is the Central Arizona Project (CAP), through which more than 1.00 maf of water was provided to irrigate nearly 1 million acres in Maricopa, Pinal, and Pima Counties, as well as provide municipal water for Phoenix and Tucson, Arizona, during 2000, 2005, and 2010. In 2010, interbasin and intrabasin transfers accounted for 24 and 11 percent of the total water withdrawals in CRB, respectively, with the larger volumes being conveyed out of the lower CRB. Total population in the CRB increased from 4.56 to 9.44 million people from 1985 to 2010. Most of those people were in the lower CRB, with 86 percent of the total in 1985, and 90 percent of the total in 2010. Total public-supply withdrawals in the CRB provided most people with their potable water, and averaged about 1.63 maf from 1985 to 2010, ranging from about 1.07 maf in 1985 to about 2.10 maf in 2010, when it peaked. Most of public-supply withdrawals occurred in the lower CRB, ranging from 87 to 91 percent of total public-supply withdrawals in the CRB over the 25 years. Total domestic use, comprised of public-supply deliveries and self-supply domestic withdrawals, increased more than 90 percent from 1985 to 2010, from about 0.80 maf to about 1.54 maf. Domestic daily per-capita use rates in the CRB ranged from about 144 (1985) to about 121 (2000) gallons (gal) per ‑ capita between 1985 and 2010. When comparing domestic daily per-capita rates for the upper and lower CRB, people in the lower CRB, on average, used less water for domestic purposes at 128 gal per-capita daily (1985–2010), while those in the upper CRB for the same time period averaged 133 gal per-capita daily. The trend in daily per-capita use rates for the entire CRB fluctuated between the reporting years, but decreased overall, indicating that more people used less water in 2010 than in 1985, likely due to improved infrastructure, conservation, and improvements to water using appliances in homes and businesses. Irrigation accounted for most total withdrawals in the CRB, excluding instream use for hydroelectric power and interbasin transfers, averaging 85 percent from 1985 to 2010. Far more surface water than groundwater was used for irrigation in both the upper and lower CRB, but in the upper CRB, it accounted for an average of more than 98 percent of the total withdrawals (1985–2010), whereas in the lower CRB, surface-water withdrawals for irrigation averaged 61 percent of total withdrawals. On average, the upper CRB accounted for 56 percent of total irrigated acres, and the irrigation systems in the upper CRB trended towards more efficient sprinkler systems from 1985 to 2010. Long-term drought in the CRB substantially decreased the amount of streamflow available for irrigation. Increases in micro-irrigation acres, which can have efficiencies that exceed 90 percent and require 20–50 percent less water than sprinkler systems, likely contributed to reduced withdrawals in the lower CRB. For thermoelectric power, total withdrawals, including the use of reclaimed wastewater, were greater in the upper CRB from 1985 through 2005. In 2010, the lower CRB exceeded the upper by only 11,000 acre-feet. On average, thermoelectric consumptive use accounted for about 80 percent of the total withdrawals; however, consumptive-use data in the upper CRB was incomplete. Surface water was the primary source in the upper CRB and groundwater was the primary source in the lower CRB. In the CRB overall, water withdrawals for thermoelectric generation has decreased since 2000, except for groundwater withdrawals in the lower CRB. Power generation at thermoelectric plants was greater in the upper CRB from 1985 to 2000, and after 2005 the difference in power generation was small; however, the upper CRB continued to have more power generation. In both the upper and lower CRB, power generation increased from 1985 to 2005.

Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, Wyomi

Enhanced and updated spatially referenced statistical assessment of dissolved-solids load sources and transport in streams of the Upper Colorado River Basin

Approximately 6.4 million tons of dissolved solids are discharged from the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) to the Lower Colorado River Basin each year. This results in substantial economic damages, and tens of millions of dollars are spent annually on salinity control projects designed to reduce salinity loads in surface waters of the UCRB. Dissolved solids in surface water and groundwater have been studied extensively over the past century, and these studies have contributed to a conceptual understanding of sources and transport of dissolved solids. This conceptual understanding was incorporated into a Spatially Referenced Regressions on Watershed Attributes (SPARROW) model to examine sources and transport of dissolved solids in the UCRB. The results of this model were published in 2009. The present report documents the methods and data used to develop an updated dissolved-solids SPARROW model for the UCRB, and incorporates data defining current basin attributes not available in the previous model, including delineation of irrigated lands by irrigation type (sprinkler or flood irrigation), and calibration data from additional monitoring sites. Dissolved-solids loads estimated for 312 monitoring sites were used to calibrate the SPARROW model, which predicted loads for each of 10,789 stream reaches in the UCRB. The calibrated model provided a good fit to the calibration data as evidenced by R 2 and yield R 2 values of 0.96 and 0.73, respectively, and a root-mean-square error of 0.47. The model included seven geologic sources that have estimated dissolved-solids yields ranging from approximately 1 to 45 tons per square mile (tons/mi 2 ). Yields generated from irrigated agricultural lands are substantially greater than those from geologic sources, with sprinkler irrigated lands generating an average of approximately 150 tons/mi 2 and flood irrigated lands generating between 770 and 2,300 tons/mi 2 depending on underlying lithology. The coefficients estimated for six landscape transport characteristics that influence the delivery of dissolved solids from sources to streams, are consistent with the process understanding of dissolved-solids loading to streams in the UCRB. Dissolved-solids loads and the proportion of those loads among sources in the entire UCRB as well as in major tributaries in the basin are reported, as are loads generated from irrigated lands, rangelands, Bureau of Land Management (BLM) lands, and grazing allotments on BLM lands. Model-predicted loads also are compared with load estimates from 1957 and 1991 at selected locations in three divisions of the UCRB. At the basin scale, the model estimates that 32 percent of the dissolved-solids loads are from irrigated agricultural land sources that compose less than 2 percent of the land area in the UCRB. This estimate is less than previously reported estimates of 40 to 45 percent of basin-scale dissolved-solids loads from irrigated agricultural land sources. This discrepancy could be a result of the implementation of salinity control projects in the basin. Notably, results indicate that the conversion of flood irrigated agricultural lands to sprinkler irrigated agricultural lands is a likely process contributing to the temporal decrease in dissolved-solids loads from irrigated lands.

Colorado River Basin

Environmental niche models for riverine desert fishes and their similarity according to phylogeny and functionality

Environmental filtering and competitive exclusion are hypotheses frequently invoked in explaining species' environmental niches (i.e., geographic distributions). A key assumption in both hypotheses is that the functional niche (i.e., species traits) governs the environmental niche, but few studies have rigorously evaluated this assumption. Furthermore, phylogeny could be associated with these hypotheses if it is predictive of functional niche similarity via phylogenetic signal or convergent evolution, or of environmental niche similarity through phylogenetic attraction or repulsion. The objectives of this study were to investigate relationships between environmental niches, functional niches, and phylogenies of fishes of the Upper (UCRB) and Lower (LCRB) Colorado River Basins of southwestern North America. We predicted that functionally similar species would have similar environmental niches (i.e., environmental filtering) and that closely related species would be functionally similar (i.e., phylogenetic signal) and possess similar environmental niches (i.e., phylogenetic attraction). Environmental niches were quantified using environmental niche modeling, and functional similarity was determined using functional trait data. Nonnatives in the UCRB provided the only support for environmental filtering, which resulted from several warmwater nonnatives having dam number as a common predictor of their distributions, whereas several cool- and coldwater nonnatives shared mean annual air temperature as an important distributional predictor. Phylogenetic signal was supported for both natives and nonnatives in both basins. Lastly, phylogenetic attraction was only supported for native fishes in the LCRB and for nonnative fishes in the UCRB. Our results indicated that functional similarity was heavily influenced by evolutionary history, but that phylogenetic relationships and functional traits may not always predict the environmental distribution of species. However, the similarity of environmental niches among warmwater centrarchids, ictalurids, fundulids, and poeciliids in the UCRB indicated that dam removals could influence the distribution of these nonnatives simultaneously, thus providing greater conservation benefits. However, this same management strategy would have more limited effects on nonnative salmonids, catostomids, and percids with colder temperature preferences, thus necessitating other management strategies to control these species.

Colorado River Basin

Groundwater response to the 2014 pulse flow in the Colorado River Delta

During the March-May 2014 Colorado River Delta pulse flow, approximately 102 × 10 6 m 3 (82,000 acre-feet) of water was released into the channel at Morelos Dam, with additional releases further downstream. The majority of pulse flow water infiltrated and recharged the regional aquifer. Using groundwater-level and microgravity data we mapped the spatial and temporal distribution of changes in aquifer storage associated with pulse flow. Surface-water losses to infiltration were greatest around the Southerly International Boundary, where a lowered groundwater level owing to nearby pumping created increased storage potential as compared to other areas with shallower groundwater. Groundwater levels were elevated for several months after the pulse flow but had largely returned to pre-pulse levels by fall 2014. Elevated groundwater levels in the limitrophe (border) reach extended about 2 km to the east around the midway point between the Northerly and Southerly International Boundaries, and about 4 km to the east at the southern end. In the southern part of the delta, although total streamflow in the channel was less due to upstream infiltration, augmented deliveries through irrigation canals and possible irrigation return flows created sustained increases in groundwater levels during summer 2014. Results show that elevated groundwater levels and increases in groundwater storage were relatively short lived (confined to calendar year 2014), and that depressed water levels associated with groundwater pumping around San Luis, Arizona and San Luis Rio Colorado, Sonora cause large, unavoidable infiltration losses of in-channel water to groundwater in the vicinity.

Colorado River Basin

The importance of base flow in sustaining surface water flow in the Upper Colorado River Basin

The Colorado River has been identified as the most overallocated river in the world. Considering predicted future imbalances between water supply and demand and the growing recognition that base flow (a proxy for groundwater discharge to streams) is critical for sustaining flow in streams and rivers, there is a need to develop methods to better quantify present-day base flow across large regions. We adapted and applied the spatially referenced regression on watershed attributes (SPARROW) water quality model to assess the spatial distribution of base flow, the fraction of streamflow supported by base flow, and estimates of and potential processes contributing to the amount of base flow that is lost during in-stream transport in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB). On average, 56% of the streamflow in the UCRB originated as base flow, and precipitation was identified as the dominant driver of spatial variability in base flow at the scale of the UCRB, with the majority of base flow discharge to streams occurring in upper elevation watersheds. The model estimates an average of 1.8 &times; 10 10 m 3 /yr of base flow in the UCRB; greater than 80% of which is lost during in-stream transport to the Lower Colorado River Basin via processes including evapotranspiration and water diversion for irrigation. Our results indicate that surface waters in the Colorado River Basin are dependent on base flow, and that management approaches that consider groundwater and surface water as a joint resource will be needed to effectively manage current and future water resources in the Basin.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming

Evaluating Landsat 8 evapotranspiration for water use mapping in the Colorado River Basin

Evapotranspiration (ET) mapping at the Landsat spatial resolution (100 m) is essential to fully understand water use and water availability at the field scale. Water use estimates in the Colorado River Basin (CRB), which has diverse ecosystems and complex hydro-climatic regions, will be helpful to water planners and managers. Availability of Landsat 8 images, starting in 2013, provides the opportunity to map ET in the CRB to assess spatial distribution and patterns of water use. The Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop) model was used with 528 Landsat 8 images to create seamless monthly and annual ET estimates at the inherent 100 m thermal band resolution. Annual ET values were summarized by land use/land cover classes. Croplands were the largest consumer of &ldquo;blue&rdquo; water while shrublands consumed the most &ldquo;green&rdquo; water. Validation using eddy covariance (EC) flux towers and water balance approaches showed good accuracy levels with R 2 ranging from 0.74 to 0.95 and the Nash&ndash;Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient ranging from 0.66 to 0.91. The root mean square error (and percent bias) ranged from 0.48 mm (13%) to 0.60 mm (22%) for daily (days of satellite overpass) ET and from 7.75 mm (2%) to 13.04 mm (35%) for monthly ET. The spatial and temporal distribution of ET indicates the utility of Landsat 8 for providing important information about ET dynamics across the landscape. Annual crop water use was estimated for five selected irrigation districts in the Lower CRB where annual ET per district ranged between 681 mm to 772 mm. Annual ET by crop type over the Maricopa Stanfield irrigation district ranged from a low of 384 mm for durum wheat to a high of 990 mm for alfalfa fields. A rainfall analysis over the five districts suggested that, on average, 69% of the annual ET was met by irrigation. Although the enhanced cloud-masking capability of Landsat 8 based on the cirrus band and utilization of the Fmask algorithm improved the removal of contaminated pixels, the ability to reliably estimate ET over clouded areas remains an important challenge. Overall, the performance of Landsat 8 based ET compared to available EC datasets and water balance estimates for a complex basin such as the CRB demonstrates the potential of using Landsat 8 for annual water use estimation at a national scale. Future efforts will focus on (a) use of consistent methodology across years, (b) integration of multiple sensors to maximize images used, and (c) employing cloud-computing platforms for large scale processing capabilities.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico,