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Research about Cascadia Subduction Zone

Source-linked reports with geographic coverage including Cascadia Subduction Zone.

13 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2026

Cascadia Subduction Zone science: Call for the next generation community seismic velocity model

The Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) hosts major seismic and tsunami hazards, yet key questions persist about the relationship between margin structure, fluid distribution, episodic tremor and slip, shallow megathrust behavior, shaking and tsunamigenesis, and the resulting hazard estimates. Addressing these problems requires an empirically grounded, three‐dimensional seismic velocity model to illuminate subsurface structure and properties and to provide a basis for geophysical studies such as earthquake simulations and ground‐motion estimation. In May 2024, the National Science Foundation‐funded Cascadia Region Earthquake Science Center (CRESCENT) community velocity model (CVM) working group, with U.S. Geological Survey and regional partners, convened a workshop to identify priorities for such a model. Participants emphasized the features necessary for addressing key science questions, including implementing findability, accessibility, interoperability, and reusability (FAIR) access, capturing along‐strike and along‐dip structural heterogeneity, resolving shallow offshore–onshore structure, constraining elastic properties and quantifying their uncertainties for numerical wave propagation simulations, their validation benchmarks, and supporting associated accurate earthquake ground‐motion simulations and hazard assessments. This article describes the priorities defined in the workshop, and a description of how, guided by these needs, CRESCENT plans to develop multiple generations of a CVM to advance CSZ science and improve seismic and tsunami hazard modeling across the Pacific Northwest. The CVM will span the CSZ from the surface to ∼100 km depth, offshore and east of the Cascades into Idaho (∼132°–110° W) and the southern and northern tectonic regime transitions (∼36°–52° N) to capture the entire tectonic system as well as its surroundings.

Cascadia Subduction Zone↗
USGS2025

The impact of 3D structure on coseismic coastal land-level change and tsunami generation in the Cascadia Subduction Zone

Estimates of coseismic vertical displacements from past and potential future subduction zone earthquakes provide critical constraints on regional seismic and tsunami hazard. Many studies use elastic homogeneous half-space models to calculate vertical displacements from a specified earthquake slip distribution, neglecting complexities of 3D structure in subduction zone settings. Here, we use 3D ground motion simulations of potential Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquakes to investigate the impact of realistic 3D Earth structure on estimated vertical displacements. We show that offshore uplift increases when including 3D structure due to high fault slip in low-rigidity accretionary wedge sediments and coastal subsidence decreases due to higher rigidity material at depth. These larger offshore uplifts cause increased tsunami maximum wave heights, and coastal subsidence at paleoseismic sites decreases on average by ∼17 cm, or ∼60%, which can have important implications for the amplitude and extent of slip in earthquake scenarios developed based on paleoseismic data constraints.

California, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2025

Three-dimensional seismic velocity model for the Cascadia Subduction Zone with shallow soils and topography, version 1.7

The U.S. Geological Survey’s seismic velocity model for the Cascadia Subduction Zone provides P- and S-wave velocity ( V P and V S , respectively) information from 40.2° to 50.0° N. latitude and −129.0° to −121.0° W. longitude, and is used to support a variety of research topics, including three-dimensional (3D) earthquake simulations and seismic hazard assessment in the Pacific Northwest. This report describes an update to the previous version (v) 1.6 of the 3D seismic velocity model for the Cascadia Subduction Zone. This new model (herein referred to as v1.7) contains more detailed near-surface structure for improved earthquake ground motion modeling. Updated features include the addition of a new shallow soil velocity model in the top few hundred meters and the option of adding user-specified topography. Although v1.6 of the Cascadia seismic velocity model has a minimum V S of 600 meters per second (m/s), the new model (v1.7) has a minimum V S of approximately 40 m/s. Overall, this update will allow for more accurate ground motion estimates from 3D simulations of scenario earthquakes in the Cascadia Subduction Zone region.

British Columbia, California, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2025

Implications of physics-based M9 ground motions on liquefaction-induced damage in the Cascadia Subduction Zone: Looking forward and backward

Given the likelihood of future M9 Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) earthquakes, various estimates of the resulting, regional ground motions have been made, including a suite of 30 physics-based simulations that reflect key modeling uncertainties. However, because the last CSZ interface rupture occurred in 1700 CE, the shaking expected in such an event is especially uncertain, as are the impacts to the built and living environments. Like other coseismic impacts, soil liquefaction poses a significant threat and must be considered by any scenario study used to inform planning and response, or to focus mitigation resources. Liquefaction is also notable for its potential to “ground truth” ground-motion estimates, given that its presence or absence in the geologic record can provide constraint on the intensities of shaking in past events. It is thus an important phenomenon looking both forward and backward. Accordingly, using recent physics-based simulations, this study (1) predicts liquefaction in M9 CSZ ruptures at 400 locations in Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia (BC) using an array of cone-penetration-test based models and (2) uses paleoliquefaction evidence at ten sites spanning from Southern Oregon to Vancouver, BC to constrain possible ground-motion intensities experienced in the 1700 CE earthquake. The forward predictions indicate that liquefaction in M9 events could be pervasive in the region and affect numerous population hubs, with the potential for damage across hundreds of square kilometers. The backward analyses suggest that 1700 CE ground-motion intensities may have been less than expected from M9 simulations in some northern portions of the CSZ (e.g. Seattle), given the paucity of 1700 CE liquefaction evidence in these areas. Ultimately, further discovery and analysis of CSZ paleoliquefaction, or lack thereof, will confirm or modify this possibility and the conclusions drawn herein.

Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2025

Strong shaking from past Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquakes encoded in coastal landforms

Strong earthquakes along subduction zones are often devastating events, but sparse records along some tectonic margins limit our understanding of seismic hazards. Constraining shaking intensities is critical, especially in subduction zones with infrequent but large-magnitude earthquakes like the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ), where the lack of recorded ground motions has led to uncertainty in the severity and potential impacts of future earthquakes. Here we fill this observational gap with a novel inventory of quantitative estimates of past shaking intensities from geotechnical modeling of coastal landforms. One hundred fifty-four deep-seated landslides and 65 fragile geologic features constrain minimum and maximum peak ground accelerations, respectively. These estimates are broadly consistent with model predictions of M9 ruptures, suggesting strong shaking of 0.4–0.8 g during past CSZ earthquakes. Local discrepancies between our geologic shaking constraints and earthquake simulations may inform past rupture behavior, leading to better predictions of shaking intensity for future earthquakes.

California, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2024

Late-Quaternary surface displacements on accretionary wedge splay faults in the Cascadia Subduction Zone: Implications for megathrust rupture

Because splay faults branch at a steep dip angle from the plate-boundary décollement in an accretionary wedge, their coseismic displacement can potentially result in larger tsunamis with distinct characteristics compared to megathrust-only fault ruptures, posing an enhanced hazard to coastal communities. Elsewhere, there is evidence of coseismic slip on splay faults during many of the largest subduction zone earthquakes, but our understanding of potentially active splay faults and their hazards at the Cascadia subduction zone remains limited. To identify the most recently active splay faults at Cascadia, we conduct stratigraphic and structural interpretations of near-surface deformation in the outer accretionary wedge for the ~400 km along-strike length of the landward vergence zone. We analyze recently acquired high-frequency sparker seismic data and crustal-scale multi-channel seismic data to examine the record of deformation in shallow slope basins and the upper ~1 km of the surrounding accreted sediments and to investigate linkages to deeper décollement structure. We present a new fault map for widest, most completely locked portion of Cascadia from 45 to 48°N latitude, which documents the distribution of faults that show clear evidence of recent late Quaternary activity. We find widespread evidence for active splay faulting up to 30 km landward of the deformation front, in what we define as the active domain, and diminished fault activity landward outside of this zone. The abundance of surface-deforming splay faults in the active outer wedge domain suggests Cascadia megathrust events may commonly host distributed shallow rupture on multiple splay faults located within 30 km of the deformation front.

British Columbia, California, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2022

Volcano, earthquake, and tsunami hazards of the Cascadia Subduction Zone

Subduction zones produce some of Earth’s most devastating geological events. Recent eruptions of Mount St. Helens and great earthquakes and tsunamis in Japan and Sumatra provide stark examples of the destructive power of subduction-related hazards. In the Cascadia subduction zone, large earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions have occurred in the past and geologic records imply that these events will occur in the future. As the population and infrastructure increase in the region, resilience to these natural hazards requires a detailed scientific understanding of the geologic forces and processes involved, combined with a society motivated to mitigate risks.

California, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2020

Ensemble ShakeMaps for magnitude 9 earthquakes on the Cascadia Subduction Zone

We develop ensemble ShakeMaps for various magnitude 9 ( ⁠ M "> M M 9) earthquakes on the Cascadia megathrust. Ground‐shaking estimates are based on 30 M "> M M 9 Cascadia earthquake scenarios, which were selected using a logic‐tree approach that varied the hypocenter location, down‐dip rupture limit, slip distribution, and location of strong‐motion‐generating subevents. In a previous work, Frankel et al. (2018) used a hybrid approach (i.e., 3D deterministic simulations for frequencies &lt; 1 &#x2009;&#x2009; Hz "> < 1 Hz <1 Hz and stochastic synthetics for frequencies &gt; 1 &#x2009;&#x2009; Hz "> > 1 Hz >1 Hz ⁠ ) and uniform site amplification factors to create broadband seismograms from this set of 30 earthquake scenarios. Here, we expand on this work by computing site‐specific amplification factors for the Pacific Northwest and applying these factors to the ground‐motion estimates derived from Frankel et al. (2018) . In addition, we use empirical ground‐motion models (GMMs) to expand the ground‐shaking estimates beyond the original model extent of Frankel et al. (2018) to cover all of Washington State, Oregon, northern California, and southern British Columbia to facilitate the use of these ensemble ShakeMaps in region‐wide risk assessments and scenario planning exercises. Using this updated set of 30 M "> M M 9 Cascadia earthquake scenarios, we present ensemble ShakeMaps for the median, 2nd, 16th, 84th, and 98th percentile ground‐motion intensity measures. Whereas traditional scenario ShakeMaps are based on a single hypothetical earthquake rupture, our ensemble ShakeMaps take advantage of a logic‐tree approach to estimating ground motions from multiple earthquake rupture scenarios. In addition, 3D earthquake simulations capture important features such as strong ground‐motion amplification in the Pacific Northwest’s sedimentary basins, which are not well represented in the empirical GMMs that compose traditional scenario ShakeMaps. Overall, our results highlight the importance of strong‐motion‐generating subevents for coastal sites, as well as the amplification of long‐period ground shaking in deep sedimentary basins, compared with previous scenario ShakeMaps for Cascadia.

California, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2017

P- and S-wave velocity models incorporating the Cascadia subduction zone for 3D earthquake ground motion simulations, Version 1.6—Update for Open-File Report 2007–1348

In support of earthquake hazard studies and ground motion simulations in the Pacific Northwest, three-dimensional P- and S-wave velocity ( V P and V S , respectively) models incorporating the Cascadia subduction zone were previously developed for the region encompassed from about 40.2°N. to 50°N. latitude, and from about 122°W. to 129°W. longitude. This report describes updates to the Cascadia velocity property volumes of model version 1.3 (V1.3), herein called model version 1.6 (V1.6). As in model V1.3, the updated V1.6 model volume includes depths from 0 kilometers (mean sea level) to 60 kilometers, and it is intended to be a reference for researchers who have used, or are planning to use, this model in their Earth science investigations. To this end, it is intended that the V P and V S property volumes of model V1.6 will be considered a template for a community velocity model of the Cascadia region as additional results become available. With the recent and ongoing development of the National Crustal Model, we envision any future versions of this model will be directly integrated with that effort.

Oregon, Vancouver, Washington↗
USGS2014

Slip rate and tremor genesis in Cascadia

At many plate boundaries, conditions in the transition zone between seismogenic and stable slip produce slow earthquakes. In the Cascadia subduction zone, these events are consistently observed as slow, aseismic slip on the plate interface accompanied by persistent tectonic tremor. However, not all slow slip at other plate boundaries coincides spatially and temporally with tremor, leaving the physics of tremor genesis poorly understood. Here we analyze seismic, geodetic, and strainmeter data in Cascadia to observe for the first time a large, tremor-generating slow earthquake change from tremor-genic to silent and back again. The tremor falls silent at reduced slip speeds when the migrating slip front pauses as it loads the stronger adjacent fault segment to failure. The finding suggests that rheology and slip-speed-regulated stressing rate control tremor genesis, and the same section of fault can slip both with and without detectable tremor, limiting tremor's use as a proxy for slip.

British Columbia, California, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2014

Tsunami impact to Washington and northern Oregon from segment ruptures on the southern Cascadia subduction zone

This paper explores the size and arrival of tsunamis in Oregon and Washington from the most likely partial ruptures of the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) in order to determine (1) how quickly tsunami height declines away from sources, (2) evacuation time before significant inundation, and (3) extent of felt shaking that would trigger evacuation. According to interpretations of offshore turbidite deposits, the most frequent partial ruptures are of the southern CSZ. Combined recurrence of ruptures extending ~490 km from Cape Mendocino, California, to Waldport, Oregon (segment C) and ~320 km from Cape Mendocino to Cape Blanco, Oregon (segment D), is ~530 years. This recurrence is similar to frequency of full-margin ruptures on the CSZ inferred from paleoseismic data and to frequency of the largest distant tsunami sources threatening Washington and Oregon, ~M w 9.2 earthquakes from the Gulf of Alaska. Simulated segment C and D ruptures produce relatively low-amplitude tsunamis north of source areas, even for extreme (20 m) peak slip on segment C. More than ~70 km north of segments C and D, the first tsunami arrival at the 10-m water depth has an amplitude of <1.9 m. The largest waves are trapped edge waves with amplitude ≤4.2 m that arrive ≥2 h after the earthquake. MM V–VI shaking could trigger evacuation of educated populaces as far north as Newport, Oregon for segment D events and Grays Harbor, Washington for segment C events. The NOAA and local warning systems will be the only warning at greater distances from sources.

Oregon;Washington↗
USGS2002

The Cascadia Subduction Zone and related subduction systems: Seismic structure, intraslab earthquakes and processes, and earthquake hazards

The following report is the principal product of an international workshop titled “Intraslab Earthquakes in the Cascadia Subduction System: Science and Hazards” and was sponsored by the U.S. Geological Survey, the Geological Survey of Canada and the University of Victoria. This meeting was held at the University of Victoria’s Dunsmuir Lodge, Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada on September 18–21, 2000 and brought 46 participants from the U.S., Canada, Latin America and Japan. This gathering was organized to bring together active research investigators in the science of subduction and intraslab earthquake hazards. Special emphasis was given to “warm-slab” subduction systems, i.e., those systems involving young oceanic lithosphere subducting at moderate to slow rates, such as the Cascadia system in the U.S. and Canada, and the Nankai system in Japan. All the speakers and poster presenters provided abstracts of their presentations that were a made available in an abstract volume at the workshop. Most of the authors subsequently provided full articles or extended abstracts for this volume on the topics that they discussed at the workshop. Where updated versions were not provided, the original workshop abstracts have been included. By organizing this workshop and assembling this volume, our aim is to provide a global perspective on the science of warm-slab subduction, to thereby advance our understanding of internal slab processes and to use this understanding to improve appraisals of the hazards associated with large intraslab earthquakes in the Cascadia system. These events have been the most frequent and damaging earthquakes in western Washington State over the last century. As if to underscore this fact, just six months after this workshop was held, the magnitude 6.8 Nisqually earthquake occurred on February 28th, 2001 at a depth of about 55 km in the Juan de Fuca slab beneath the southern Puget Sound region of western Washington. The Governor’s Office of the State of Washington estimated damage at more than US$2 billion, making it among the costliest earthquakes in U.S. history.

California, Oregon, Washington↗