Geology topics

Research about California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah

Source-linked reports with geographic coverage including California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Invasion resistance varies by fuel break type in sagebrush ecosystems

Background Wildfire is an increasingly important driver of changes within sagebrush (Artemisia spp. L.) ecosystems of the western USA, often resulting in increased spread of exotic annual grasses, such as cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum L.), and subsequent losses of native vegetation and wildlife habitat. Fuel breaks— areas of land treated to reduce or redistribute fuel loads — are widely implemented to help prevent the spread of wildfires and provide areas to facilitate firefighting efforts. However, localized installation and maintenance of fuel breaks directly reduce or remove vegetation and may propagate the spread of exotic annual grasses into fuel break boundaries and surrounding areas, inadvertently weakening ecological resilience to disturbance. To investigate if exotic annual grass cover was associated with mowed or green strip fuel breaks across the sagebrush biome, we combined multiple data sources and methodologies. We used targeted field surveys and land-management agency monitoring data within a space-for-time substitution framework coupled with a progressive-change before-after control-impact (PC BACI) study design using historical remotely sensed vegetation cover data which allowed us to account for potential confounding effects of roads on annual grass cover. Results Models using both field collected and remotely sensed vegetation indices estimated increases in exotic annual grass cover over time following mowed fuel break installation, and higher exotic annual grass cover closer to mowed fuel breaks. These increases in exotic annual grass occurred within, at 500 m and at 1000 m from mowed fuel breaks. However, we found variable patterns of exotic annual grass after green strip fuel break installation depending on the data source. No increase in exotic annual grass were indicated by either analysis at distances greater than 500 m from green strip fuel breaks. However, our and field data analyses disagreed on the direction of the association of exotic annual grass cover and green strip fuel breaks. Conclusions Although fuel breaks are an important tool in managing wildland fire, our analysis underscores the importance of planting fire-resistant vegetation, rather than mowing alone, to reduce invasion by annual grasses within and around fuel breaks in sagebrush ecosystems. In addition, site characteristics that hinder the proliferation of exotic annual grasses could be evaluated when installing fuel breaks to minimize unintended effects of exotic annual grass on surrounding sagebrush habitat.

California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah↗

USGS2025

Enhanced geothermal systems electric-resource assessment for the Great Basin, southwestern United States

The U.S. Geological Survey recently (2025) completed a provisional assessment of the geothermal-electric resources associated with high-temperature, low-permeability rock formations of the Great Basin, Southwestern United States. If sufficient technological advances to commercialize enhanced geothermal systems occur, then a current best provisional estimate for electric-power generation capacity of 135 gigawatts electric are available from the upper 6 kilometers of the Earth’s crust. This estimate is a potential substantial increase of the installed geothermal electricity-generating capacity from <1 to 10 percent of current total U.S. power production capacity.

California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah↗

USGS2025

Favorability mapping for hydrothermal power resource assessments of the Great Basin, USA

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is updating the 2008 assessment of conventional hydrothermal resources for the Great Basin in the western United States. As part of this work, the workflow for hydrothermal resource favorability maps is being modified to integrate modern data-driven machine learning (ML) methods. Improvements include: [1] using new and refined evidence layers (features); [2] using an order of magnitude more training sites (labeled examples); [3] utilizing simple but non-linear supervised ML algorithms; [4] representing positive training sites (wells with measured heat flow) with their ordinal value proportional to the magnitude of convective upflow (i.e., low, high, or very high convective signals instead of past strategies using positive-negative labels); [5] supplementing training sites with additional sites with low convective signals to represent diverse under-sampled areas where hydrothermal systems are unlikely to exist; [6] comparing with competing approaches; and [7] utilizing Monte Carlo cross-validation to estimate and evaluate prediction uncertainty. For the new favorability map, over half of the power-producing systems (i.e., 15 of 28) are predicted in the 99th percentile of most favorable locations (i.e., the highest 1 % of favorability, corresponding to 1 % of the map area), exceeding the performance of past models that have explicitly used power plants as training sites. Previous favorability maps predicted approximately half of the power-producing hydrothermal systems above the 80th percentile (i.e., 20 % of the map area). For the new favorability map, 93 % of power-producing systems (i.e., 26 of 28) are above the 80th percentile. The power-producing systems for which the new model does not perform well are either comparatively small, low-temperature systems or systems also not predicted well by prior modeling approaches, suggesting that these few systems are unusual when compared with most power-producing systems. Focusing research on these known, seemingly different systems may yield new insights and subsequent discovery of new prospects.

California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah↗

USGS2024

Managing to survive despite the weather: Seeding decisions affecting simulated dryland restoration outcomes

Limited favorable weather windows for post-germination early seedling survival are associated with low restoration success in drylands. We examined whether post-fire seeding decisions could alter early seedling emergence and restoration success across western North American sagebrush ecosystems with a simulation approach. Seedling emergence estimates were based on germination of a specified percentile of sown seeds followed by favorable conditions for seedling development. We asked how three categories of seeding decisions affected emergence: post-fire seeding year, seasonal seeding delay (via seed coating technologies or later seeding timing), or native perennial grass seed source (via differing germination behavior). We also tested potential effects of mean annual precipitation on seeding decision outcomes (interactive effect) and included topographic microclimate and site (random effect) in models. Emergence was highest when the best seed source (of 10) was seeded in the best post-fire year (of 5). High emergence also resulted from seeding in the best post-fire year with an average seed source or seeding with the best source in the first post-fire year. Emergence was higher overall with higher mean precipitation. Seeding decision outcomes were sensitive to annual mean precipitation, with greater differences observed due to decisions at lower precipitation levels. While sensitive to assumptions related to seedling development and germination speed, these results suggest that restoration approaches linked to germination behavior and weather variability could improve restoration success rates in variable drylands like sagebrush ecosystems.

California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah↗

USGS2023

Assessing large landscape patterns of potential fire connectivity using circuit methods

Context Minimizing negative impacts of wildfire is a major societal objective in fire-prone landscapes. Models of fire connectivity can aid in understanding and managing wildfires by analyzing potential fire spread and conductance patterns. We define ‘fire connectivity’ as the landscape’s capacity to facilitate fire transmission from one point on the landscape to another. Objectives Our objective was to develop an approach for modeling fire connectivity patterns representing potential fire spread and relative flow across a broad landscape extent, particularly in the management-relevant context of fuel breaks. Methods We applied an omnidirectional circuit theory algorithm to model fire connectivity in the Great Basin of the western United States. We used predicted rates of fire spread to approximate conductance and calculated current densities to identify connections among areas with high spread rates. We compared existing and planned fuel breaks with fire connectivity patterns. Results Fire connectivity and relative flow outputs were characterized by spatial heterogeneity in the landscape’s capacity to transmit fire. We found that existing fuel break networks were denser in areas with relatively diffuse and impeded flow patterns, rather than in locations with channelized flow. Conclusions This approach could be paired with traditional fire behavior and risk analyses to better understand wildfire spread as well as direct strategic placement of individual fuel breaks within larger networks to constrain fire spread. Thus, our findings may offer local- to landscape-level support for management actions that aim to disrupt fire spread and mitigate the costs of fire on the landscape.

California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah↗

USGS2022

Piñon and juniper tree removal increases available soil water, driving understory response in a sage-steppe ecosystem

Over the past century, piñon and juniper trees have encroached into sagebrush steppe lands of the interior United States, and managers have for many years removed trees to stimulate the favored understory. While consistent understory response to tree removal in these semiarid lands suggests that trees outcompete other plants for water, no studies have linked increased soil water to understory response after tree removal. We tested the hypothesis that tree removal at six sagebrush steppe sites increased soil water, leading to increased understory plant cover. Using a structural equation model, we found that before tree removal, trees suppressed shrubs (standardized coefficient [SC] = −0.87), perennial deep-rooted (SC = −0.50) and shallow-rooted bunchgrasses (SC = −0.36), but had no influence on cheatgrass. The model explained between 2% (cheatgrass) and 40% (shrubs) of pretreatment cover variation. Measurement of the same plots six years post-treatment showed that most cover variation was due directly to plant growth, with standardized coefficients between 0.51 (perennial shallow-rooted grasses) and 0.72 (cheatgrass). Competition between cheatgrass and perennial deep-rooted grasses was evident, with perennials having twice the influence on cheatgrass than vice-versa (SC = −0.24 vs. −0.11). Spring soil water (wet-degree days) increased significantly after tree removal, measured as cumulative over 6 years (SC = 0.30), and in the early Spring of year six (SC = 0.16). Treatment-induced increase of cumulative Spring wet degree-days explained variation in shrub cover at year 6 (SC = 0.12) and the increase of early Spring wet degree-days at year 6 led to increases in perennial deep-rooted grasses (SC = 0.24) and cheatgrass (SC = 0.23). We detected no influence of Spring wet degree-days on perennial shallow-rooted grasses. The post-treatment model explained between 34% (shallow-rooted perennial grasses) and 69% (deep-rooted perennial grasses) of variation in understory cover. Most variation was explained by re-measurement of the same populations, followed by treatment effects mediated through increased soil water availability, soil factors, and direct effects of the treatment itself. In conclusion, our model is consistent with the a priori hypothesis that additional wet degree-days due to tree removal is a significant mechanism behind observed increases in understory cover.

California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah↗

USGS2022

Potential cheatgrass abundance within lightly invaded areas of the Great Basin

Context Anticipating where an invasive species could become abundant can help guide prevention and control efforts aimed at reducing invasion impacts. Information on potential abundance can be combined with information on the current status of an invasion to guide management towards currently uninvaded locations where the threat of invasion is high. Objectives We aimed to support management by developing predictive maps of potential cover for cheatgrass ( Bromus tectorum ), a problematic invader that can transform plant communities. We integrated our predictions of potential abundance with mapped estimates of current cover to quantify invasion potential within lightly invaded areas. Methods We used quantile regression to model cheatgrass abundance as a function of climate, weather, and disturbance, treating outputs as low to high invasion scenarios. We developed a species-specific set of covariates and validated model performance using spatially and temporally independent data. Results Potential cheatgrass abundance was higher in areas that had burned, at low elevations, and when fall germination conditions were more favorable. Our results highlight the extensive areas across the Great Basin where cheatgrass abundance could increase to levels that can alter fire behavior and cause other ecological impacts. Conclusions We predict potential cheatgrass abundance to quantify relative invasion risk. Our model results provide high and low scenarios of cheatgrass abundance to guide resource allocation and planning efforts across shrubland ecosystems of the Great Basin that remain relatively uninvaded. Combining information on an invasive species’ current and potential abundance can yield spatial predictions to guide resource allocation and management action.

California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah↗

USGS2022

Reestablishing a foundational species: limitations on post-wildfire sagebrush seedling establishment

Improving post-wildfire restoration of foundational plant species is crucial for conserving imperiled ecosystems. We sought to better understand the initial establishment of sagebrush ( Artemisia sp.), a foundational shrubland species over a vast area of western North America, in the first 1–2 years post-wildfire, a critical time period for population recovery. Field data from 460 sagebrush populations sampled across the Great Basin revealed several patterns. Sagebrush seedlings were uncommon in the first 1–2 years after fire, with none detected in 69% of plots, largely because most fires occurred in areas of low resistance to invasive species and resilience to disturbance (hereafter, R&R). Post-fire aerial seeding of sagebrush dramatically increased seedling occupancy, especially in low R&R areas, which exhibited a 3.4-fold increase in occupancy over similar unseeded locations. However, occupancy models and repeat surveys suggested exceptionally high mortality, as occupancy rates declined by as much as 50% between the first and second years after fire. We found the prevalence of “fertile island” microsites (patches beneath fire-consumed sagebrush) to be the best predictor of seedling occupancy, followed by aerial seeding status, native perennial grass cover, and years since fire. In populations where no sagebrush seeding occurred, seedlings were most likely to occur in locations with a combination of high fertile island microsite cover and close proximity to a remnant sagebrush plant. These important attributes were only present in 13% of post-fire locations, making them rare across the Great Basin. Finally, in the absence of fertile islands and remnant plants, seedling establishment was not observed in any unseeded areas, and rarely in seeded locations. Thus, local extirpation of sagebrush could have important, long-term implications for sagebrush reestablishment following future fires if there are no mature individuals to leave behind fertile islands or serve as remnant individuals. These findings highlight the importance of landscape legacy effects and could help guide where and how big sagebrush restoration is conducted in the future.

California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah↗

USGS2021

Intraspecific variation in incubation behaviors along a latitudinal gradient is driven by nest microclimate and selection on neonate quality

The strategies by which animals allocate reproductive effort across their lifetimes vary, and the causes of variation in those strategies are actively debated. In birds, most research has focused heavily on variation in clutch size and fecundity, but incubation behaviour and other functionally related traits have received less attention. Variation in incubation period duration is notable because time-dependent sources of clutch mortality should impose strong directional selection to minimize the incubation period. However, life-history theory predicts multiple mechanisms by which inter- and intraspecific variation in incubation behaviours may be adaptive. We conducted one of the first studies of intraspecific latitudinal variation in avian incubation behaviours across a large portion of a single species’ range. We placed motion-activated nest cameras inside burrowing owl nests at five study sites to quantify variation in daily nest attentiveness, cumulative nest attendance and incubation period duration. We tested predictions of two alterative hypotheses that have been proposed to explain variation in incubation periods: the parental risk tolerance hypothesis and the neonate quality hypothesis . Daily nest attentiveness, cumulative nest attendance and incubation period duration in burrowing owls were all positively correlated with latitude. Burrowing owls reduced their daily nest attentiveness at low latitudes and on days when the average nest temperature was within the range that is optimal for embryo development. Further, longer incubation periods were most strongly associated with greater cumulative nest attendance instead of reduced daily nest attentiveness. These results support predictions of the neonate quality hypothesis: longer incubation periods result from stronger selection on neonate quality rather than selection to reduce reproductive effort in response to low extrinsic mortality risk. However, some owls facultatively reduced their daily nest attentiveness, and this result supports the general hypothesis that incubation decisions reflect a trade-off between reproduction and self-maintenance, and that the optimal solution to that trade-off varies systematically in response to latitudinal gradients in adult mortality.

California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah↗

USGS2021

Are drought indices and climate data good indicators of ecologically relevant soil moisture dynamics in drylands?

Droughts are disproportionately impacting global dryland regions where ecosystem health and function are tightly coupled to moisture availability. Drought severity is commonly estimated using algorithms such as the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI), which can estimate climatic water balance impacts at various hydrologic scales by varying computational length. However, the performance of these metrics as indicators of soil moisture dynamics at ecologically relevant scales, across soil depths, and in consideration of broader scale ecohydrological processes, requires more attention. In this study, we tested components of climatic water balance, including SPEI and SPEI computation lengths, to recreate multi-decadal and periodic soil-moisture patterns across soil profiles at 866 sites in the western United States. Modeling results show that SPEI calculated over the prior 12-months was the most predictive computation length and could recreate changes in moisture availability within the soil profile over longer periods of time and for annual recharge of deeper soil moisture stores. SPEI was slightly less successful with recreating spring surface-soil moisture availability, which is key to dryland ecosystems dominated by winter precipitation. Meteorological drought indices like SPEI are intended to be convenient and generalized indicators of meteorological water deficit. However, the inconsistent ability of SPEI to recreate ecologically relevant patterns of soil moisture at regional scales suggests that process-based models, and the larger data requirements they involve, remain an important tool for dryland ecohydrology

California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah↗

USGS2021

Free-roaming horses disrupt greater sage-grouse lekking activity in the Great Basin

Greater Sage-Grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus; hereafter, sage-grouse) and free-roaming horses ( Equus caballus ) co-occur within large portions of sagebrush ecosystems within the Great Basin of western North America. In recent decades, sage-grouse populations have declined substantially while concomitant free-roaming horse populations have increased drastically. Although multiple studies have reported free-roaming horses adversely impacting native ungulate species, direct interactions between free-roaming horses and sage-grouse have not been documented previously. We compiled sage-grouse lek count data and associated ungulate observations during spring of 2010 and 2013–2018. We used Bayesian multinomial logistic models to examine the response of breeding male sage-grouse to the presence of native (i.e. mule deer, pronghorn) and non-native (i.e. cattle, free-roaming horses) ungulates on active sage-grouse leks (traditional breeding grounds). We found sage-grouse were approximately five times more likely to be present on active leks concurrent with native ungulates compared to non-native ungulates. Of the four different ungulate species, sage-grouse were least likely to be at active leks when free-roaming horses were present. Our results indicate that free-roaming horse presence at lek sites negatively influences sage-grouse lekking activity. Because sage-grouse population growth is sensitive to breeding success, disruption of leks by free-roaming horses could reduce breeding opportunities and limit breeding areas within sage-grouse habitat.

California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah↗

USGS2021

SMaRT: A science-based tiered framework for common ravens

Large-scale increases and expansion of common raven ( Corvus corax ; raven) populations are occurring across much of North America, leading to increased negative consequences for livestock and agriculture, human health and safety, and sensitive species conservation. We describe a science-based adaptive management framework that incorporates recent quantitative analyses and mapping products for addressing areas with elevated raven numbers and minimizing potential adverse impacts to sensitive species, agricultural damage, and human safety. The framework comprises 5 steps: (1) desktop analysis; (2) field assessments; (3) comparison of raven density estimates to an ecological threshold (in terms of either density or density plus distance to nearest active or previous nest); (4) prescribing management options using a 3-tiered process (i.e., habitat improvements, subsidy reductions, and direct actions using StallPOPd.V4 software); and (5) post-management monitoring. The framework is integrated within the Science-based Management of Ravens Tool (SMaRT), a web-based application outfitted with a user-friendly interface that guides managers through each step to develop a fully customized adaptive plan for raven management. In the SMaRT interface, users can: (1) interact with pre-loaded maps of raven occurrence and density and define their own areas of interest within the Great Basin to delineate proposed survey or treatment sites; (2) enter site-level density estimates from distance sampling methods or perform estimation of raven densities using the rapid assessment protocol that we provide; (3) compare site-level density estimates to an identified ecological threshold; and (4) produce a list of potential management options for their consideration. The SMaRT supports decision-making by operationalizing scientific products for raven management and facilitates realization of diverse management goals including sensitive species conservation, protection of livestock and agriculture, safeguarding human health, and addressing raven overabundance and expansion. We illustrate the use of the framework through SMaRT using an example of greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) conservation efforts within the Great Basin, USA.

California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah↗

USGS2021

Evaluating common raven take for greater sage-grouse in Oregon’s Baker County Priority Conservation Area and Great Basin Region

The common raven ( Corvus corax ; raven) is a nest predator of species of conservation concern, such as the greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ). Reducing raven abundance by take requires authorization under the Migratory Bird Treaty Act. To support U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s take decisions (e.g., those that authorize killing a specified proportion or number of individuals annually in a defined area), including the most recent one for Oregon’s Baker County Priority Area for Conservation (PAC), we modeled raven population dynamics under hypothetical scenarios with take rates ranging from below to above the maximum sustained yield (MSY; i.e., tr msy = 0.01-0.60). We fit a Bayesian state-space logistic model to estimate abundance based on the Breeding Bird Survey route-level count data for the PAC during 1997-2019 and Great Basin Region (GBR) during 1968-2019. We predicted abundance for 2019-2030 and evaluated potential take levels (PTL) for the PAC and GBR. Abundance averaged 682 (SE = 93) for the PAC during 1997-2019 and 333,027 (SE = 20,504) for the GBR during 1968-2019. With take rates between 0.41 and 0.60, predicted abundance averaged 308 (SD = 405) for the PAC and 142,258 (SD = 53,474) for the GBR during 2019-2030. With management factor F = 0.75-2 for takes ranging from below to above the MSY, the PTL 50 th percentiles were 150-401 yr -1 for the PAC and 60,457-161,219 yr -1 for the GBR. Our modeling framework is flexible and can be part of a comprehensive management strategy for ravens in the western United States.

California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah↗

USGS2020

Postfire growth of seeded and planted big sagebrush - Strategic designs for restoring Greater Sage-grouse nesting habitat

Wildfires change plant community structure and impact wildlife habitat and population dynamics. Recent wildfire‐induced losses of big sagebrush ( Artemisia tridentata ) in North American shrublands are outpacing natural recovery and leading to substantial losses in habitat for sagebrush‐obligate species such as Greater Sage‐grouse. Managers are considering restoration strategies that include planting container‐grown sagebrush to improve establishment within areas using more conventional seeding methods. Although it is thought that planting sagebrush provides initial structural advantages over seeding, empirical comparisons of sagebrush growth are lacking between individuals established post‐fire using both methods. Using a Bayesian hierarchical approach, we evaluated sagebrush height and canopy area growth rates for plants established in 26 seeded and 20 planted locations within the Great Basin. We then related recovery rates to previously published nesting habitat requirements for sage‐grouse. Under average weather conditions, planted or seeded sagebrush will require 3 or 4 years, respectively, and a relatively high density (≥ 2 plants/m 2 ) to achieve the minimum recommended canopy cover for sage‐grouse (15 %). Sagebrush grown in warmer and drier conditions met this cover goal months earlier. Although planted sagebrush reached heights to meet sage‐grouse nesting requirements (30 cm) one year earlier than seeded plants, seeded individuals were ~19 cm taller with 410 cm 2 more canopy area than planted sagebrush after 8 years. However, big sagebrush establishment from seed is unreliable. Strategically planting small, high density patches of container‐grown sagebrush in historic sage‐grouse nesting habitat combined with lower density seedings in larger surrounding areas may accelerate sage‐grouse habitat restoration.

California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah↗

USGS2020

Broad-scale impacts of an invasive native predator on a sensitive native prey species within the shifting avian community of the North American Great Basin

Human enterprise has modified ecosystem processes through direct and indirect alteration of native predators’ distribution and abundance. For example, human activities subsidize food, water, and shelter availability to generalist predators whose subsequent increased abundance impacts lower trophic-level prey species. The common raven (Corvus corax; hereafter, raven) is an avian predator, native to the northern hemisphere, that can become invasive when subsidized. Raven populations are increasing at unprecedented rates in many regions globally. Information regarding scale of impact and potential ecological thresholds is needed to guide conservation actions aimed at reducing adverse effects on sensitive prey. We conducted a multi-part analysis to investigate broad-scale variation in raven densities and impacts on nesting greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus), an indicator species for sagebrush ecosystems in western North America. We estimated raven densities using 16,000 point surveys over 10 years within the Great Basin, USA, and examined associations with anthropogenic and environmental covariates. Average density was 0.54 ravens km-2 (95% CI: 0.42–0.70), with higher densities at lower relative elevations comprising increased agriculture and development. We then used a reduced dataset to estimate the effect of raven density on sage-grouse nest survival (nests = 737). We identified negative impacts to nesting sage-grouse, especially where raven density exceeded ~ 0.40 km-2, a potential ecological threshold. We mapped regions where elevated raven densities were predicted to depress sage-grouse population growth in the absence of compensatory demographic responses from other sage-grouse life-history stages, and found ~ 64% of sage-grouse breeding areas were adversely impacted by high raven density.

California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah↗

USGS2020

Regional patterns in hydrologic response, a new three-component metric for hydrograph analysis and implications for ecohydrology, Northwest Volcanic Aquifer Study Area, USA

Study Region Oregon, California, Idaho, Nevada and Utah Study Focus Spatial patterns of hydrologic response were examined for the Northwest Volcanic Aquifer Study Area (NVASA). The utility of established hydrograph-separation methods for assessing hydrologic response in permeable volcanic terranes was assessed and a new three-component metric for hydrograph analysis was developed. The new metric, which partitions streamflow into subcomponents defined by the timescales of hydrologic response (e.g., fast-runoff, intermediate-interflow and slow-baseflow), was used to gain a fundamental understanding of the regional hydrology, investigate sub-regional differences, influencing factors, and ecohydrological implications. New Hydrological Insights The combined effects of NVASA’s physiography, climate and geology create a strongly coupled surface-groundwater system that produces copious baseflow and limited quantities of runoff and interflow. Patterns of hydrologic response are influenced by the type and rate of precipitation and permeability of the underlying geology. Under variable precipitation conditions the hydrologic response of volcanic terranes with similar permeability and subsurface-storage capacity can be significantly different. From a water management and ecohydrology perspective, understanding regional patterns of hydrologic response and sub-regional differences is fundamental. Results indicate that minimum-flow methods provide the most conservative estimate of baseflow and may be the most robust for filtering out snowmelt bias in baseflow estimates. Baseflow contributes ∼75% of the perennial streamflow across the NVASA and represents a critical component of the regional water supply that provides critical cold-water habitat.

California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah↗

USGS2020

Holocene paleoclimate change in the western US: The importance of chronology in discerning patterns and drivers

Sediment in lakes and meadows forms a powerful archive that can be used to reconstruct environmental change through time. Reconstructions of lake level, of chemical, biological, and hydrological conditions, and of surrounding vegetation provide detailed information about past climate conditions, both locally and regionally. Indeed, most of our current knowledge of centennial- to millennial-scale climate variability in the arid western United States, where information about past hydroclimate is particularly important, comes from such sediment-based reconstructions. The pressing need for robust, precise predictions of future conditions is a significant motivation for paleoclimate science, and current research questions frequently require Holocene reconstructions to be resolved at sub-centennial timescales. Increasingly, regional syntheses seek to identify synoptic-scale patterns similar to those defined from modern observations (seasonal, interannual, multi-decadal, etc.) or to compare with the output of climate model simulations. However, the age control on existing records, especially those more than about 20 years old, is often sufficient only for millennial-scale interpretation. Here we assess the age control for 84 published and unpublished records from lakes and meadows in the Great Basin, California, and desert southwest, and use Bayesian modeling to evaluate the 95% uncertainty ranges for the 42 best-dated records. In the Late Holocene, about half of the 42 records have <400-year mean uncertainty ranges; however, high-precision age control is especially critical for young records, used to develop an accurate understanding of a proxy’s response to known climate variations. In the Middle Holocene, records vary from 400 to >800-year mean uncertainty and records of the Early Holocene have 600- to >1400-year mean uncertainty ranges. We find that the largest control on modeled uncertainties is dating density, with at least 2 dates/kyr being optimal and suggest obtaining “range-finder” dates at the onset of a study to better predict the total number of dates needed for an adequate age model. Such a density avoids a commonly observed phenomenon of significant peaks in uncertainty arising in gaps between age control points. Analysis of the uncertainties associated with proxy shifts reveal that more than half are >400 years. Although such large uncertainties currently prevent sub-centennial interpretations in most cases, increased dating density, strategic use of limited funds (including budgeting for a 2 date/kyr minimum at the proposal stage), construction of age-depth models with Bayesian methods, and critical evaluation of chronological uncertainty will shed light on past climate variability at finer timescales, enhancing our understanding of global and regional drivers of western U.S. climate.

California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah↗

USGS2019

Monitoring protocol development and assessment for narrowly endemic toads in Nevada, 2018

Several species and subspecies of toads are endemic to small spring systems in the Great Basin, and their restricted ranges and habitat extent make them vulnerable to environmental perturbations. Very little is known about several of these toad populations, so a group of stakeholders including the U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Bureau of Land Management, Nevada Department of Wildlife, the U.S. Navy, U.S. Forest Service, and Oregon State University met to discuss information needs on these populations and to develop a monitoring protocol that would detect population changes over time. In cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the U.S. Geological Survey implemented the proposed survey protocol, a multi-state occupancy design, for three sites: Dixie Valley, Railroad Valley, and Hot Creek, to evaluate its ease of implementation and effectiveness. We found that the multi-state occupancy protocol worked well in the Dixie Valley and, with some refinement, would likely work well in the Railroad Valley. We suggest that capture-mark-recapture of adults might be a more effective approach at Hot Creek. For most life stages of most populations, detection probabilities were positively related to survey duration up to 20 minutes, and the best time of day to conduct surveys varied by life stage and population. We make population-specific suggestions for the number of surveys and their timing and duration. Annual surveys using the suggested survey protocols will likely allow estimation of trends in the proportion of area of each population existing in different population states (occupied, occupied with evidence of reproduction, and unoccupied) and in most cases can be readily implemented with minimal training or handling of toads.

California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah↗