Geology topics

Research about Calaveras Fault

Source-linked reports with geographic coverage including Calaveras Fault.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2012

Fault healing inferred from time dependent variations in source properties of repeating earthquakes

We analyze two sets of repeating earthquakes on the Calaveras fault to estimate in-situ rates of fault strengthening (healing). Earthquake recurrence intervals t r range from 3 to 803 days. Variations in relative moment and duration are combined to study changes in stress drop, rupture dimension, rupture velocity, and particle velocity as a function of t r . Healing rates and source variations are compared with predictions of laboratory-derived friction laws. Two interpretations of event duration τ are used: one in which τ is given by the ratio of slip to particle velocity and one in which it scales as rupture dimension divided by rupture velocity. Our data indicate that faults strengthen during the interseismic period. We infer that source dimension decreases with t r due to aseismic creep within the region surrounding the repeating events. Stress drop increases 1–3MPa per decade increase in t r , which represents an increase of a factor of 2–3 relative to events with t r between 10 and 100 days. This rate of fault healing is consistent with extrapolations of laboratory measurements of healing rates if fault strength is high, on order of 60MPa, and stress drop is roughly 10% of this value.

California↗

USGS2007

Forecast experiment: do temporal and spatial b value variations along the Calaveras fault portend M ≥ 4.0 earthquakes?

The power law distribution of earthquake magnitudes and frequencies is a fundamental scaling relationship used for forecasting. However, can its slope (b value) be used on individual faults as a stress indicator? Some have concluded that b values drop just before large shocks. Others suggested that temporally stable low b value zones identify future large-earthquake locations. This study assesses the frequency of b value anomalies portending M ≥ 4.0 shocks versus how often they do not. I investigated M ≥ 4.0 Calaveras fault earthquakes because there have been 25 over the 37-year duration of the instrumental catalog on the most active southern half of the fault. With that relatively large sample, I conducted retrospective time and space earthquake forecasts. I calculated temporal b value changes in 5-km-radius cylindrical volumes of crust that were significant at 90% confidence, but these changes were poor forecasters of M ≥ 4.0 earthquakes. M ≥ 4.0 events were as likely to happen at times of high b values as they were at low ones. However, I could not rule out a hypothesis that spatial b value anomalies portend M ≥ 4.0 events; of 20 M ≥ 4 shocks that could be studied, 6 to 8 (depending on calculation method) occurred where b values were significantly less than the spatial mean, 1 to 2 happened above the mean, and 10 to 13 occurred within 90% confidence intervals of the mean and were thus inconclusive. Thus spatial b value variation might be a useful forecast tool, but resolution is poor, even on seismically active faults.

California↗

USGS2002

High-resolution image of Calaveras Fault seismicity

By measuring relative earthquake arrival times using waveform cross correlation and locating earthquakes using the double difference technique, we are able to reduce hypocentral errors by 1 to 2 orders of magnitude over routine locations for nearly 8000 events along a 35-km section of the Calaveras Fault. This represents ∼92% of all seismicity since 1984 and includes the rupture zone of the M 6.2 1984 Morgan Hill, California, earthquake. The relocated seismicity forms highly organized structures that were previously obscured by location errors. There are abundant repeating earthquake sequences as well as linear clusters of earthquakes. Large voids in seismicity appear with dimensions of kilometers that have been aseismic over the 30-year time interval, suggesting that these portions of the fault are either locked or creeping. The area of greatest slip in the Morgan Hill main shock coincides with the most prominent of these voids, suggesting that this part of the fault may be locked between large earthquakes. We find that the Calaveras Fault at depth is extremely thin, with an average upper bound on fault zone width of 75 m. Given the location error, however, this width is not resolvably different from zero. The relocations reveal active secondary faults, which we use to solve for the stress field in the immediate vicinity of the Calaveras Fault. We find that the maximum compressive stress is at a high angle, only 13° from the fault normal, supporting previous interpretations that this fault is weak.

California↗