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Faults & earthquakes

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At least 91 records · Page 5Linked to original sources

USGS2004

Stress triggering in thrust and subduction earthquakes and stress interaction between the southern San Andreas and nearby thrust and strike-slip faults

We argue that key features of thrust earthquake triggering, inhibition, and clustering can be explained by Coulomb stress changes, which we illustrate by a suite of representative models and by detailed examples. Whereas slip on surface-cutting thrust faults drops the stress in most of the adjacent crust, slip on blind thrust faults increases the stress on some nearby zones, particularly above the source fault. Blind thrusts can thus trigger slip on secondary faults at shallow depth and typically produce broadly distributed aftershocks. Short thrust ruptures are particularly efficient at triggering earthquakes of similar size on adjacent thrust faults. We calculate that during a progressive thrust sequence in central California the 1983 M w = 6.7 Coalinga earthquake brought the subsequent 1983 M w = 6.0 Nuñez and 1985 M w = 6.0 Kettleman Hills ruptures 10 bars and 1 bar closer to Coulomb failure. The idealized stress change calculations also reconcile the distribution of seismicity accompanying large subduction events, in agreement with findings of prior investigations. Subduction zone ruptures are calculated to promote normal faulting events in the outer rise and to promote thrust-faulting events on the periphery of the seismic rupture and its downdip extension. These features are evident in aftershocks of the 1957 M w = 9.1 Aleutian and other large subduction earthquakes. We further examine stress changes on the rupture surface imparted by the 1960 M w = 9.5 and 1995 M w = 8.1 Chile earthquakes, for which detailed slip models are available. Calculated Coulomb stress increases of 2–20 bars correspond closely to sites of aftershocks and postseismic slip, whereas aftershocks are absent where the stress drops by more than 10 bars. We also argue that slip on major strike-slip systems modulates the stress acting on nearby thrust and strike-slip faults. We calculate that the 1857 M w = 7.9 Fort Tejon earthquake on the San Andreas fault and subsequent interseismic slip brought the Coalinga fault ∼1 bar closer to failure but inhibited failure elsewhere on the Coast Ranges thrust faults. The 1857 earthquake also promoted failure on the White Wolf reverse fault by 8 bars, which ruptured in the 1952 M w = 7.3 Kern County shock but inhibited slip on the left-lateral Garlock fault, which has not ruptured since 1857. We thus contend that stress transfer exerts a control on the seismicity of thrust faults across a broad spectrum of spatial and temporal scales.

California↗

USGS2020

Segmentation and supercycles: A catalog of earthquake rupture patterns from the Sumatran Sunda Megathrust and other well-studied faults worldwide

After more than 100 years of earthquake research, earthquake forecasting, which relies on knowledge of past fault rupture patterns, has become the foundation for societal defense against seismic natural disasters. A concept that has come into focus more recently is that rupture segmentation and cyclicity can be complex, and that a characteristic earthquake model is too simple to adequately describe much of fault behavior. Nevertheless, recognizable patterns in earthquake recurrence emerge from long, high resolution, spatially distributed chronologies. Researchers now seek to discover the maximum, minimum, and typical rupture areas; the distribution, variability, and spatial applicability of recurrence intervals; and patterns of earthquake clustering in space and time. The term “supercycle” has been used to describe repeating longer periods of elastic strain accumulation and release that involve multiple fault ruptures. However, this term has become very broadly applied, lumping together several distinct phenomena that likely have disparate underlying causes. We divide earthquake cycle behavior into four major classes that have different implications for seismic hazard and fault mechanics: 1) quasi-periodic similar ruptures, 2) clustered similar ruptures, 3) clustered complementary ruptures/rupture cascades, and 4) superimposed cycles. “Segmentation” is likewise an ambiguous term; we identify “master segments” and “asperities” as defined by barriers to fault rupture. These barriers may be persistent (rarely or never traversed), frequent (occasionally traversed), or ephemeral (changing location from cycle to cycle). We compile a catalog of the historical and paleoseismic evidence that currently exists for each of these types of behavior on major well-studied faults worldwide. Due to the unique level of paleoseismic and paleogeodetic detail provided by the coral microatoll technique, the Sumatran Sunda megathrust provides one of the most complete records over multiple earthquake rupture cycles. Long historical records of earthquakes along the South American and Japanese subduction zones are also vital contributors to our catalog, along with additional data compiled from subduction zones in Cascadia, Alaska, and Middle America, as well as the North Anatolian and Dead Sea strike-slip faults in the Middle East. We find that persistent and frequent barriers, rupture cascades, superimposed cycles, and quasi-periodic similar ruptures are common features of most major faults. Clustered similar ruptures do not appear to be common, but broad overlap zones between neighboring segments do occur. Barrier regions accommodate slip through reduced interseismic coupling, slow slip events, and/or smaller more localized ruptures, and are frequently associated with structural features such as subducting seafloor relief or fault trace discontinuities. This catalog of observations provides a basis for exploring and modeling root causes of rupture segmentation and cycle behavior. We expect that researchers will recognize similar behavior styles on other major faults around the world.

Quaternary Science Reviews↗

USGS2017

High-resolution seismic profiling reveals faulting associated with the 1934 Ms 6.6 Hansel Valley earthquake (Utah, USA)

The 1934 Ms 6.6 Hansel Valley, Utah, earthquake produced an 8-km-long by 3-km-wide zone of north-south−trending surface deformation in an extensional basin within the easternmost Basin and Range Province. Less than 0.5 m of purely vertical displacement was measured at the surface, although seismologic data suggest mostly strike-slip faulting at depth. Characterization of the origin and kinematics of faulting in the Hansel Valley earthquake is important to understand how complex fault ruptures accommodate regions of continental extension and transtension. Here, we address three questions: (1) How does the 1934 surface rupture compare with faults in the subsurface? (2) Are the 1934 fault scarps tectonic or secondary features? (3) Did the 1934 earthquake have components of both strike-slip and dip-slip motion? To address these questions, we acquired a 6.6-km-long, high-resolution seismic profile across Hansel Valley, including the 1934 ruptures. We observed numerous east- and west-dipping normal faults that dip 40°−70° and offset late Quaternary strata from within a few tens of meters of the surface down to a depth of ∼1 km. Spatial correspondence between the 1934 surface ruptures and subsurface faults suggests that ruptures associated with the earthquake are of tectonic origin. Our data clearly show complex basin faulting that is most consistent with transtensional tectonics. Although the kinematics of the 1934 earthquake remain underconstrained, we interpret the disagreement between surface (normal) and subsurface (strike-slip) kinematics as due to slip partitioning during fault propagation and to the effect of preexisting structural complexities. We infer that the 1934 earthquake occurred along an ∼3-km wide, off-fault damage zone characterized by distributed deformation along small-displacement faults that may be alternatively activated during different earthquake episodes.

Utah↗

USGS2002

Timing of large earthquakes since A.D. 800 on the Mission Creek strand of the San Andreas fault zone at Thousand Palms Oasis, near Palm Springs, California

Paleoseismic investigations across the Mission Creek strand of the San Andreas fault at Thousand Palms Oasis indicate that four and probably five surface-rupturing earthquakes occurred during the past 1200 years. Calendar age estimates for these earthquakes are based on a chronological model that incorporates radiocarbon dates from 18 in situ burn layers and stratigraphic ordering constraints. These five earthquakes occurred in about A.D. 825 (770–890) (mean, 95% range), A.D. 982 (840–1150), A.D. 1231 (1170–1290), A.D. 1502 (1450–1555), and after a date in the range of A.D. 1520–1680. The most recent surface-rupturing earthquake at Thousand Palms is likely the same as the A.D. 1676 ± 35 event at Indio reported by Sieh and Williams ( 1990 ). Each of the past five earthquakes recorded on the San Andreas fault in the Coachella Valley strongly overlaps in time with an event at the Wrightwood paleoseismic site, about 120 km northwest of Thousand Palms Oasis. Correlation of events between these two sites suggests that at least the southernmost 200 km of the San Andreas fault zone may have ruptured in each earthquake. The average repeat time for surface-rupturing earthquakes on the San Andreas fault in the Coachella Valley is 215 ± 25 years, whereas the elapsed time since the most recent event is 326 ± 35 years. This suggests the southernmost San Andreas fault zone likely is very near failure. The Thousand Palms Oasis site is underlain by a series of six channels cut and filled since about A.D. 800 that cross the fault at high angles. A channel margin about 900 years old is offset right laterally 2.0 ± 0.5 m, indicating a slip rate of 4 ± 2 mm/yr. This slip rate is low relative to geodetic and other geologic slip rate estimates (26 ± 2 mm/yr and about 23–35 mm/yr, respectively) on the southernmost San Andreas fault zone, possibly because (1) the site is located in a small step-over in the fault trace and so the rate is not be representative of the Mission Creek fault, (2) slip is partitioned northward from the San Andreas fault and into the eastern California shear zone, and/or (3) slip is partitioned onto the Banning strand of the San Andreas fault zone.

California↗

USGS2022

Shallow faulting and folding in the epicentral area of the 1886 Charleston, South Carolina, earthquake

The moment magnitude ( ⁠ M w "> M w �w ⁠ ) ∼7 earthquake that struck Charleston, South Carolina, on 31 August 1886 is the largest historical earthquake in the United States east of the Appalachian Mountains. The fault(s) that ruptured during this earthquake has never been conclusively identified, and conflicting fault models have been proposed. Here we interpret reprocessed seismic reflection profiles, reprocessed legacy aeromagnetic data, and newly collected ground penetrating radar (GPR) profiles to delineate faults deforming the Cretaceous and younger Atlantic Coastal Plain (ACP) strata in the epicentral area of the 1886 earthquake. The data show evidence for faults folding or vertically displacing ACP strata, including apparent displacements of near‐surface strata (upper ∼20 m). Aeromagnetic data show several northeast (NE)‐trending lineaments, two of which correlate with faults and folds with vertical displacements as great as 55 m on the seismic reflection and radar profiles. ACP strata show only minor thickness changes across these structures, indicating that much of the displacement postdates the shallowest well‐imaged ACP strata of Eocene age. Faults imaged on the seismic reflection profiles appear on GPR profiles to displace the erosional surface at the top of the upper Eocene to Oligocene Cooper Group, including where railroad tracks were bent during the 1886 earthquake. Some faults coincide with changes in river trends, bifurcations of river channels, and unusual river meanders that could be related to recent fault motion. In contrast to our interpreted NE fault trends, earthquake locations and some focal mechanisms in the modern seismic zone have been interpreted as defining a nearly north‐striking, west‐dipping zone of aftershocks from the 1886 earthquake. The relationship between the modern seismicity and the faults we image is therefore enigmatic. However, multiple faults in the area clearly have been active since the Eocene and deform strata in the upper 20 m, providing potential targets for field‐based geologic investigations.

South Carolina↗

USGS2013

Geometry and earthquake potential of the shoreline fault, central California

The Shoreline fault is a vertical strike‐slip fault running along the coastline near San Luis Obispo, California. Much is unknown about the Shoreline fault, including its slip rate and the details of its geometry. Here, I study the geometry of the Shoreline fault at seismogenic depth, as well as the adjacent section of the offshore Hosgri fault, using seismicity relocations and earthquake focal mechanisms. The Optimal Anisotropic Dynamic Clustering (OADC) algorithm (Ouillon et al., 2008) is used to objectively identify the simplest planar fault geometry that fits all of the earthquakes to within their location uncertainty. The OADC results show that the Shoreline fault is a single continuous structure that connects to the Hosgri fault. Discontinuities smaller than about 1 km may be undetected, but would be too small to be barriers to earthquake rupture. The Hosgri fault dips steeply to the east, while the Shoreline fault is essentially vertical, so the Hosgri fault dips towards and under the Shoreline fault as the two faults approach their intersection. The focal mechanisms generally agree with pure right‐lateral strike‐slip on the OADC planes, but suggest a non‐planar Hosgri fault or another structure underlying the northern Shoreline fault. The Shoreline fault most likely transfers strike‐slip motion between the Hosgri fault and other faults of the Pacific–North America plate boundary system to the east. A hypothetical earthquake rupturing the entire known length of the Shoreline fault would have a moment magnitude of 6.4–6.8. A hypothetical earthquake rupturing the Shoreline fault and the section of the Hosgri fault north of the Hosgri–Shoreline junction would have a moment magnitude of 7.2–7.5.

California↗

USGS1994

Large mid-Holocene and late Pleistocene earthquakes on the Oquirrh fault zone, Utah

The Oquirrh fault zone is a range-front normal fault that bounds the east side of Tooele Valley and it has long been recognized as a potential source for large earthquakes that pose a significant hazard to population centers along the Wasatch Front in central Utah. Scarps of the Oquirrh fault zone offset the Provo shoreline of Lake Bonneville and previous studies of scarp morphology suggested that the most recent surface-faulting earthquake occurred between 9000 and 13,500 years ago. Based on a potential rupture length of 12 to 21 km from previous mapping, moment magnitude ( M w ) estimates for this event range from 6.3 to 6.6 In contrast, our results from detailed mapping and trench excavations at two sites indicate that the most-recent event actually occurred between 4300 and 6900 yr B.P. (4800 and 7900 cal B.P.) and net vertical displacements were 2.2 to 2.7 m, much larger than expected considering estimated rupture lengths for this event. Empirical relations between magnitude and displacement yield M w 7.0 to 7.2. A few, short discontinuous fault scarps as far south as Stockton, Utah have been identified in a recent mapping investigation and our results suggest that they may be part of the Oquirrh fault zone, increasing the total fault length to 32 km. These results emphasize the importance of integrating stratigraphic and geomorphic information in fault investigations for earthquake hazard evaluations. At both the Big Canyon and Pole Canyon sites, trenches exposed faulted Lake Bonneville sediments and thick wedges of fault-scarp derived colluvium associated with the most-recent event. Bulk sediment samples from a faulted debris-flow deposit at the Big Canyon site yield radiocarbon ages of 7650 ± 90 yr B.P. and 6840 ± 100 yr B.P. (all lab errors are ±1 α ). A bulk sediment sample from unfaulted fluvial deposits that bury the fault scarp yield a radiocarbon age estimate of 4340 ± 60 yr B.P. Stratigraphic evidence for a pre-Bonneville lake cycle penultimate earthquake was exposed at the Pole Canyon site, and although displacement is not well constrained, the penultimate event colluvial wedge is comparable in size to the most-recent event wedges. Charcoal from a marsh deposit, which overlies the penultimate event colluvium and was deposited during the Bonneville lake cycle transgression, yields an AMS radiocarbon age of 20,370 ± 120 yr B.P. Multiple charcoal fragments from fluvial deposits faulted during the penultimate event yield an AMS radiocarbon age of 26,200 ± 200 yr B.P. Indirect stratigraphic evidence for an antepenultimate event was also exposed at Pole Canyon. Charcoal from fluvial sediments overlying the eroded free-face for this event yields an AMS age of 33,950 ± 1160 yr B.P., providing a minimum limiting age on the antepenultimate event. Ages for the past two events on the Oquirrh fault zone yield a recurrence interval of 13,300 to 22,100 radiocarbon years and estimated slip rates of 0.1 to 0.2 mm/yr. Temporal clustering of earthquakes on the nearby Wasatch fault zone in the late Holocene does not appear to have influenced activity on the Oquirrh fault zone. However, consistent with findings on the Wasatch fault zone and with some other Quaternary faults within the Bonneville basin, we found evidence for higher rates of activity during interpluvial periods than during the Bonneville lake cycle. If a causal relation between rates of strain release along faults and changes in loads imposed by the lake does exist, it may have implications for fault dips and mechanics. However, our data are only complete for one deep-lake cycle (the past 32,000 radiocarbon years), and whether this pattern persisted during the previous Cutler Dam and Little Valley deep-lake cycles is unknown.

Geomorphology↗

USGS2021

A geology and geodesy based model of dynamic earthquake rupture on the Rodgers Creek‐Hayward‐Calaveras Fault System, California

The Hayward fault in California's San Francisco Bay area produces large earthquakes, with the last occurring in 1868. We examine how physics‐based dynamic rupture modeling can be used to numerically simulate large earthquakes on not only the Hayward fault, but also its connected companions to the north and south, the Rodgers Creek and Calaveras faults. Equipped with a wealth of images of this fault system, including those of its 3D geology and 3D geometry, in addition to inferences about its interseismic creep‐rate pattern and rock‐friction behavior, we use a finite‐element computer code to perform 3D dynamic earthquake rupture simulations. We find that the rock properties affect the locations and amount of slip produced in our simulated large earthquakes. Crucial factors that control rupture behavior in our modeling are the earthquake nucleation locations, the fault geometry, and the data that reveal where the fault system is creeping or locked. Our findings suggest that large Rodgers Creek‐Hayward‐Calaveras‐Northern Calaveras (RC‐H‐C‐NC) fault‐system earthquakes may result from dynamic rupture that starts in a locked part of the fault system, but is then stopped by the creeping parts, leading to high‐magnitude‐6 earthquakes; or, from dynamic rupture that starts in a locked part of the fault system, then cascades through some of the creeping parts, leading to magnitude‐7 earthquakes.

California↗

USGS2019

A combinatorial approach to determine earthquake magnitude distributions on a variable slip-rate fault

Combinatorial methods are used to determine the spatial distribution of earthquake magnitudes on a fault whose slip rate varies along strike. Input to the problem is a finite sample of earthquake magnitudes that span 5 kyr drawn from a truncated Pareto distribution. The primary constraints to the problem are maximum and minimum values around the target slip-rate function indicating where feasible solutions can occur. Two methods are used to determine the spatial distribution of earthquakes: integer programming and the greedy-sequential algorithm. For the integer-programming method, the binary decision vector includes all possible locations along the fault where each earthquake can occur. Once a set of solutions that satisfy the constraints is found, the cumulative slip misfit on the fault is globally minimized relative to the target slip-rate function. The greedy algorithm sequentially places earthquakes to locally optimize slip accumulation. As a case study, we calculate how earthquakes are distributed along the megathrust of the Nankai subduction zone, in which the slip rate varies significantly along strike. For both methods, the spatial distribution of magnitudes depends on slip rate, except for the largest magnitude earthquakes that span multiple sections of the fault. The greedy-sequential algorithm, previously applied to this fault (Parsons et al., 2012), tends to produce smoother spatial distributions and fewer lower magnitude earthquakes in the low slip-rate section of the fault compared to the integer-programming method. Differences in results from the two methods relate to how much emphasis is placed on minimizing the misfit to the target slip rate (integer programming) compared to finding a solution within the slip-rate constraints (greedy sequential). Specifics of the spatial distribution of magnitudes also depend on the shape of the target slip-rate function: i.e. stepped at the section boundaries versus a smooth function. This study isolates the effects of slip-rate variation along a single fault in determining the spatial distribution of earthquake magnitudes, helping to better interpret results from more complex, interconnected fault systems.

Geophysical Journal International↗

USGS2009

Data files for ground-motion simulations of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake and scenario earthquakes on the Northern San Andreas Fault

This data set contains results from ground-motion simulations of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, seven hypothetical earthquakes on the northern San Andreas Fault, and the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake. The bulk of the data consists of synthetic velocity time-histories. Peak ground velocity on a 1/60th degree grid and geodetic displacements from the simulations are also included. Details of the ground-motion simulations and analysis of the results are discussed in Aagaard and others (2008a,b).

Data Series↗

USGS2007

Field and laboratory data From an earthquake history study of scarps of the Lake Creek-Boundary Creek fault between the Elwha River and Siebert Creek, Clallam County, Washington

Fault scarps recently discovered on Airborne Laser Swath Mapping (ALSM; also known as LiDAR) imagery show Holocene movement on the Lake Creek–Boundary Creek fault on the north flank of the Olympic Mountains of northwestern Washington State. Such recent movement suggests the fault is a potential source of large earthquakes. As part of the effort to assess seismic hazard in the Puget Sound region, we map scarps on ALSM imagery and show primary field and laboratory data from backhoe trenches across scarps that are being used to develop a latest Pleistocene and Holocene history of large earthquakes on the fault. Although some scarp segments 0.5–2 km long along the fault are remarkably straight and distinct on shaded ASLM imagery, most scarps displace the ground surface <1 m, and, therefore, are difficult to locate in dense brush and forest. We are confident of a surface-faulting or folding origin and a latest Pleistocene to Holocene age only for scarps between Lake Aldwell and the easternmost fork of Siebert Creek, a distance of 22 km. Stratigraphy in five trenches at four sites help determine the history of surface-deforming earthquakes since glacier recession and alluvial deposition 11–17 ka. Although the trend and plunge of indicators of fault slip were measured only in the weathered basalt exposed in one trench, upward-splaying fault patterns and inconsistent displacement of successive beds along faults in three of the five trenches suggest significant lateral as well as vertical slip during the surface-faulting or folding earthquakes that produced the scarps. Radiocarbon ages on fragments of wood charcoal from two wedges of scarp-derived colluvium in a graben-fault trench suggest two surface-faulting earthquakes between 2,000 and 700 years ago. The three youngest of nine radiocarbon ages on charcoal fragments from probable scarp-derived colluvum in a fold-scarp trench 1.2 km to the west suggest a possible earlier surface-faulting earthquake less than 5,000 years ago.

Washington↗

USGS2012

Paleoseismology along the 1980 surface rupture of the Irpinia Fault: Implications for earthquake recurrence in the southern Apennines, Italy

The Irpinia fault was the source of the M s 6.9 1980 Irpinia earthquake and produced the first unequivocal historical surface faulting in Italy. Trenching of the 1980 fault scarp at Piano di Pecore, a flat intermontane basin about 5 km south of the 1980 instrumental epicenter, provides the first data on earthquake recurrence intervals, slip per event, and slip rate on a major normal fault in the Southern Apennines fault zone. The trenches exposed evidence of four pre-1980 paleoearthquakes that occurred during the past 8600 years. A best estimate average recurrence interval is 2150 years, although the time interval between individual events varies by as much as a factor of 2. Each paleo earthquake is similar to the 1980 surface rupture in amount of slip and style of deformation, which suggests that the 1980 event is characteristic for the Irpinia fault. Slip per event values average 61 cm. The net vertical displacement of 2.12–2.36 m since 8600 cal year B.P. observed in the trenches gives a vertical slip rate of 0.25–0.35 mm/yr, a dip slip rate of 0.29–0.40 mm/yr, and an extension rate of 0.14–0.20 mm/yr. Although fault behavior data are only available for the Irpinia fault they provide a starting point for evaluating earthquake recurrence and rates of deformation in southern Apennines. They suggest that (1) fault specific earthquake recurrence intervals based on the historical seismic record overestimates the occurrence of large magnitude ( M 7) earthquakes and (2) the Holocene rate of extension across the Apennines is ≤1 mm/yr. The 1980 earthquake and the paleoseismologic observations show that repeated and localized surface faulting occurs in southern Apennines and leaves subtle but distinct geomorphic evidence that can be detected with detailed and careful investigation.

Apennine Mountains↗

USGS2023

Evidence of Seattle Fault earthquakes from patterns of deep-seated landslides

Earthquake‐induced landslides can record information about the seismic shaking that generated them. In this study, we present new mapping, Light Detection and Ranging‐derived roughness dating, and analysis of over 1000 deep‐seated landslides from the Puget Lowlands of Washington, U.S.A., to probe the landscape for past Seattle fault earthquake information. With this new landslide inventory, we observe spatial and temporal evidence of landsliding related to the last major earthquake on the Seattle fault ∼1100 yr before present. We find spatial clusters of landslides that correlate with ground motions from recent 3D kinematic models of Seattle fault earthquakes. We also find temporal patterns in the landslide inventory that suggest earthquake‐driven increases in landsliding. We compare the spatial and temporal landslide data with scenario‐based ground motion models and find stronger evidence of the last major Seattle fault earthquake from this combined analysis than from spatial or temporal patterns alone. We also compare the landslide inventory with ground motions from different Seattle fault earthquake scenarios to determine the ground motion distributions that are most consistent with the landslide record. We find that earthquake scenarios that best match the clustering of ∼1100‐year‐old landslides produce the strongest shaking within a band that stretches from west to east across central Seattle as well as along the bluffs bordering the broader Puget Sound. Finally, we identify other landslide clusters (at 4.6–4.2 ka, 4.0–3.8 ka, 2.8–2.6 ka, and 2.2–2.0 ka) in the inventory which let us infer potential ground motions that may correspond to older Seattle fault earthquakes. Our method, which combines hindcasting of the surface response to the last major Seattle fault earthquake, using a roughness‐aged landslide inventory with forecasts of modeled ground shaking from 3D seismic scenarios, showcases a powerful new approach to gleaning paleoseismic information from landscapes.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2003

Association of earthquakes and faults in the San Francisco Bay area using Bayesian inference

Bayesian inference provides a method to use seismic intensity data or instrumental locations, together with geologic and seismologic data, to make quantitative estimates of the probabilities that specific past earthquakes are associated with specific faults. Probability density functions are constructed for the location of each earthquake, and these are combined with prior probabilities through Bayes' theorem to estimate the probability that an earthquake is associated with a specific fault. Results using this method are presented here for large, preinstrumental, historical earthquakes and for recent earthquakes with instrumental locations in the San Francisco Bay region. The probabilities for individual earthquakes can be summed to construct a probabilistic frequency–magnitude relationship for a fault segment. Other applications of the technique include the estimation of the probability of background earthquakes, that is, earthquakes not associated with known or considered faults, and the estimation of the fraction of the total seismic moment associated with earthquakes less than the characteristic magnitude. Results for the San Francisco Bay region suggest that potentially damaging earthquakes with magnitudes less than the characteristic magnitudes should be expected. Comparisons of earthquake locations and the surface traces of active faults as determined from geologic data show significant disparities, indicating that a complete understanding of the relationship between earthquakes and faults remains elusive.

California↗

USGS2018

Determining on-fault earthquake magnitude distributions from integer programming

Earthquake magnitude distributions among faults within a fault system are determined from regional seismicity and fault slip rates using binary integer programming. A synthetic earthquake catalog (i.e., list of randomly sampled magnitudes) that spans millennia is first formed, assuming that regional seismicity follows a Gutenberg-Richter relation. Each earthquake in the synthetic catalog can occur on any fault and at any location. The objective is to minimize misfits in the target slip rate for each fault, where slip for each earthquake is scaled from its magnitude. The decision vector consists of binary variables indicating which locations are optimal among all possibilities. Uncertainty estimates in fault slip rates provide explicit upper and lower bounding constraints to the problem. An implicit constraint is that an earthquake can only be located on a fault if it is long enough to contain that earthquake. A general mixed-integer programming solver, consisting of a number of different algorithms, is used to determine the optimal decision vector. A case study is presented for the State of California, where a 4 kyr synthetic earthquake catalog is created and faults with slip ≥3 mm/yr are considered, resulting in >10 6 variables. The optimal magnitude distributions for each of the faults in the system span a rich diversity of shapes, ranging from characteristic to power-law distributions.

Computers & Geosciences↗

USGS2014

Holocene earthquakes and right-lateral slip on the left-lateral Darrington-Devils Mountain fault zone, northern Puget Sound, Washington

Sources of seismic hazard in the Puget Sound region of northwestern Washington include deep earthquakes associated with the Cascadia subduction zone, and shallow earthquakes associated with some of the numerous crustal (upper-plate) faults that crisscross the region. Our paleoseismic investigations on one of the more prominent crustal faults, the Darrington–Devils Mountain fault zone, included trenching of fault scarps developed on latest Pleistocene glacial sediments and analysis of cores from an adjacent wetland near Lake Creek, 14 km southeast of Mount Vernon, Washington. Trench excavations revealed evidence of a single earthquake, radiocarbon dated to ca. 2 ka, but extensive burrowing and root mixing of sediments within 50–100 cm of the ground surface may have destroyed evidence of other earthquakes. Cores in a small wetland adjacent to our trench site provided stratigraphic evidence (formation of a laterally extensive, prograding wedge of hillslope colluvium) of an earthquake ca. 2 ka, which we interpret to be the same earthquake documented in the trenches. A similar colluvial wedge lower in the wetland section provides possible evidence for a second earthquake dated to ca. 8 ka. Three-dimensional trenching techniques revealed evidence for 2.2 ± 1.1 m of right-lateral offset of a glacial outwash channel margin, and 45–70 cm of north-side-up vertical separation across the fault zone. These offsets indicate a net slip vector of 2.3 ± 1.1 m, plunging 14° west on a 286°-striking, 90°-dipping fault plane. The dominant right-lateral sense of slip is supported by the presence of numerous Riedel R shears preserved in two of our trenches, and probable right-lateral offset of a distinctive bedrock fault zone in a third trench. Holocene north-side-up, right-lateral oblique slip is opposite the south-side-up, left-lateral oblique sense of slip inferred from geologic mapping of Eocene and older rocks along the fault zone. The cause of this slip reversal is unknown but may be related to clockwise rotation of the Darrington–Devils Mountain fault zone into a position more favorable to right-lateral slip in the modern N-S compressional stress field.

Washington↗

USGS2014

Pulverization provides a mechanism for the nucleation of earthquakes at low stress on strong faults

An earthquake occurs when rock that has been deformed under stress rebounds elastically along a fault plane ( Gilbert, 1884 ; Reid, 1911 ), radiating seismic waves through the surrounding earth. Rupture along the entire fault surface does not spontaneously occur at the same time, however. Rather the rupture starts in one tiny area, the rupture nucleation zone, and spreads sequentially along the fault. Like a row of dominoes, one bit of rebounding fault triggers the next. This triggering is understood to occur because of the large dynamic stresses at the tip of an active seismic rupture. The importance of these crack tip stresses is a central question in earthquake physics. The crack tip stresses are minimally important, for example, in the time predictable earthquake model ( Shimazaki and Nakata, 1980 ), which holds that prior to rupture stresses are comparable to fault strength in many locations on the future rupture plane, with bits of variation. The stress/strength ratio is highest at some point, which is where the earthquake nucleates. This model does not require any special conditions or processes at the nucleation site; the whole fault is essentially ready for rupture at the same time. The fault tip stresses ensure that the rupture occurs as a single rapid earthquake, but the fact that fault tip stresses are high is not particularly relevant since the stress at most points does not need to be raised by much. Under this model it should technically be possible to forecast earthquakes based on the stress-renewaql concept, or estimates of when the fault as a whole will reach the critical stress level, a practice used in official hazard mapping ( Field, 2008 ). This model also indicates that physical precursors may be present and detectable, since stresses are unusually high over a significant area before a large earthquake.

Frontiers in Earth Science↗

USGS2017

Ground-rupturing earthquakes on the northern Big Bend of the San Andreas Fault, California, 800 A.D. to Present

Paleoseismic data on the timing of ground-rupturing earthquakes constrain the recurrence behavior of active faults and can provide insight on the rupture history of a fault if earthquakes dated at neighboring sites overlap in age and are considered correlative. This study presents the evidence and ages for 11 earthquakes that occurred along the Big Bend section of the southern San Andreas Fault at the Frazier Mountain paleoseismic site. The most recent earthquake to rupture the site was the M w 7.7–7.9 Fort Tejon earthquake of 1857. We use over 30 trench excavations to document the structural and sedimentological evolution of a small pull-apart basin that has been repeatedly faulted and folded by ground-rupturing earthquakes. A sedimentation rate of 0.4 cm/yr and abundant organic material for radiocarbon dating contribute to a record that is considered complete since 800 A.D. and includes 10 paleoearthquakes. Earthquakes have ruptured this location on average every ~100 years over the last 1200 years, but individual intervals range from ~22 to 186 years. The coefficient of variation of the length of time between earthquakes (0.7) indicates quasiperiodic behavior, similar to other sites along the southern San Andreas Fault. Comparison with the earthquake chronology at neighboring sites along the fault indicates that only one other 1857-size earthquake could have occurred since 1350 A.D., and since 800 A.D., the Big Bend and Mojave sections have ruptured together at most 50% of the time in M w ≥ 7.3 earthquakes.

California↗