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At least 1,261 records · Page 70Linked to original sources
USGS2026

Evaluation of water quality in the Langford Valley–Irwin Groundwater Subbasin, Fort Irwin National Training Center, California, 1993–2019

The U.S. Army Fort Irwin National Training Center (NTC), 120 miles northeast of Los Angeles in the Mojave Desert of California, obtains its potable water supply from the Bicycle Valley and Langford Valley groundwater basins; Langford Valley groundwater basin is further subdivided into the Langford Well Lake and Irwin groundwater subbasins. The Irwin groundwater subbasin contains younger, unconsolidated deposits that have a saturated thickness of as much as 200 feet (ft) and a lower aquifer within older unconsolidated deposits as thick as 650 ft. Groundwater recharge under predevelopment conditions (before 1941) occurred primarily from infiltration of intermittent streamflow in small washes that cross the Irwin groundwater subbasin. Since that time, groundwater recharge has increased because of growth of the NTC in recent years and as a result of other processes, including (1) infiltration of treated wastewater into the aquifer through ponds near the NTC wastewater treatment facility (WWTF) and (2) infiltration of imported water and treated wastewater used for landscape irrigation at base housing and athletic fields. Water samples were collected from 17 wells and analyzed for field parameters, chemical constituents, and isotope composition in the Irwin groundwater subbasin between 2014 and 2019. These data were supplemented with water-chemistry data collected during 1993–95 and at other times if available. Between 1993–95 and 2015–19, median dissolved solids and nitrate concentrations in water from wells in the Irwin groundwater subbasin increased from 620 to 1,030 milligrams per liter (mg/L) and from 2.8 to 4.5 mg/L as nitrogen, respectively. After 2014, dissolved solids and nitrate concentrations in water from wells near the NTC WWTF decreased as a result of changes in source water quality attributable to reverse osmosis of treated drinking water delivered within the Irwin groundwater subbasin and to increased levels of treatment at the NTC WWTF. Based on delta oxygen-18 and delta deuterium isotope data, increases in dissolved solids concentrations in water from most wells were consistent with evaporation prior to recharge and mobilization of soluble salts from the unsaturated zone. Arsenic and fluoride concentrations in water from wells decreased between 1993–95 and 2015–19 as the basin filled with treated wastewater, but 2015–19 concentrations generally exceeded the California State Water Resources Control Board maximum contaminant levels of 10 micrograms per liter for arsenic and 2 mg/L for fluoride. Most groundwater in the Irwin groundwater subbasin has unadjusted carbon-14 ages ranging from 18,400 to 12,350 years before present. However, water from well 10E3, located along the wash near the subbasin outflow in the southeastern part of the Irwin groundwater subbasin, contained measurable tritium, which is consistent with infiltration of intermittent streamflow and groundwater recharge from the wash after 1952. Chemical and isotopic data indicate that treated wastewater is present in water from most wells in the upper aquifer that underlies the Irwin groundwater subbasin. Wells were not sampled to adequately determine the extent of treated wastewater and changes in water quality within the lower aquifer that underlies the Irwin groundwater subbasin.

California↗
USGS2026

The functional effects of African lions on co-occurring carnivores differ across species pairs and with changes in resource availability and lion abundance

Apex carnivores are known to regulate ecosystem structure and function, including via interactions with syntopic, competitively inferior carnivores. These effects may be dependent on relative carnivore density and resource availability or productivity. We investigated the functional effect of African lions as an apex carnivore on the presence of co-occurring large carnivore species across two adjoining National Parks that contrast in relative densities of carnivores and prey. We employed two-species occupancy models from track data to test statistical interactions between lions and the other syntopic large carnivore species, while accounting for each species’ habitat selection. We further investigated the influence of anthropogenic and natural variables on these co-occurrence dynamics. Our models revealed that the occurrence of each carnivore species was best predicted by access to their own key resources. We also found significant statistical interactions between lions and cheetahs, lions and leopards, and lions and spotted hyenas in resource-rich landscapes. Finally, we found limited support for the competition exclusion hypothesis between most species, with the exception of lion-African wild dog co-occurrence patterns. Species’ co-occurrence dynamics were all influenced by resource availability, with lion-leopard and lion-cheetah co-occurrence decreasing strongly with increasing resource availability. Most species co-occurrence declined with increasing occurrence of lions. The patterns revealed by this study improves predictions of how changes in resource availability and carnivore occurrence could impact carnivore community dynamics and the functional role of apex carnivores.

Kruger National Park, Limpopo National Park↗
USGS2026

Performance evaluation and methods comparison of transcriptomic-based approaches for the characterization of wastewater treatment effluent

Wastewater treatment effluents (WWTE) present complex risks to aquatic ecosystems that are difficult to characterize using traditional methods. This study systematically evaluated the consistency and performance of transcriptomic-based approaches over time with repeated sampling and with differing experimental approaches (selection of reference condition, grab vs. composite sampling, deployed vs. laboratory exposed). RNA-seq was performed on larval fathead minnow (FHM) exposed in the laboratory to moderately hard reconstituted water (MRHW) or individual grab samples collected from an upstream site and a WWTE in the morning and afternoon over two successive days, as well as FHM deployed concurrently with grab sampling at the same sites. Composite transcriptional profiles were generated by pooling count data from grab sample exposures. The choice of comparator significantly affected results. The use of the upstream site as the reference consistently yielded fewer differentially expressed genes (DEGs) and minimal overlap compared to DEG sets from the other comparisons. Using MRHW as a comparator, DEG sets showed high consistency across grab samples, with morning samples demonstrating larger, highly consistent gene expression sets (96 % overlap) compared to afternoon samples, revealing clear and consistent within-day expression patterns. With the MHRW comparator, DEG sets from grab sample composites and deployments also overlapped substantially, indicating that transcriptional profiles accurately reflect WWTE composition regardless of exposure method. Comparisons with non-targeted (NTA) and targeted analytical datasets confirmed that gene expression interpretations aligned with effluent composition while highlighting limitations of relying solely on targeted analyte sets for connecting expression to specific chemicals. Though highly dependent on experimental design, these results demonstrate that transcriptomic-based methods provide significant utility for characterizing the bioactivity of complex environmental mixtures, and when paired with NTA datasets, have the potential to deliver a comprehensive assessment of their environmental risk.

Environmental Pollution↗
USGS2026

Ten new insights in climate science 2025

Interdisciplinary understanding is vital for delivering sound climate policy advice. However, navigating the ever-growing and increasingly diverse scholarly literature on climate change is challenging for any individual researcher. This annual synthesis highlights and explains recent advances across a variety of fields of climate change research. This year, the 10 insights focus on: (1) the record-warmth of 2023/2024 and the elevated Earth energy imbalance; (2) acceleration of ocean warming and intensifying marine heatwaves; (3) northern land carbon sinks under strain; (4) reinforcing feedback between biodiversity loss and climate change; (5) accelerated depletion of groundwater; (6) global dengue incidence; (7) global income losses and labour productivity declines; (8) strategic scaling of CDR; (9) integrity challenges in carbon credit markets and emerging responses; and (10) effective policy mixes for emissions reductions. The insights have been written to be accessible to researchers from different fields, serving as entry-points to specific topics, as well as providing an overview of the evolving landscape of climate change research. In the final section, the insights are used to develop overarching policy-relevant messages. This paper provides the basis for a science-policy report that was shared with all Party delegations ahead of COP30 in Belém, Brazil.

Global Sustainability↗
USGS2026

Climate change has increased crop water consumption in Central Asia despite less water-intensive cropping

Climate change and land use change are crucial determinants of crop water consumption, particularly in drylands where water scarcity limits crop production. In Central Asia, the effects of land use and climate changes on crop water consumption remain unknown. We estimated the dynamics of crop water consumption by mapping annual actual evapotranspiration from Landsat imagery from 1987 to 2019 for all irrigated croplands in the Amu Darya Basin, the largest transboundary river in Central Asia. Total crop water consumption increased by 10%, while average consumption per unit area increased by 18%. Climate change was the main driver of the rising crop water consumption; land use changes towards less water-intensive cropping practices offset only 3% of this increase. Our findings underscore that crop production will become increasingly challenging amidst accelerating climatic changes and that changing cropping practices alone will be insufficient to curb the growing water scarcity without a global commitment to reducing emissions.

Amu Darya basin↗
USGS2026

Synthesizing beaver coexistence messaging with the capability, opportunity, and motivation behavior model

In the western United States, conservation practitioners are increasingly working with private landowners to restore habitat for North American beavers ( Castor canadensis ) and to use nonlethal mitigation techniques when beavers damage crops and infrastructure. Effective communication is critical for promoting coexistence, yet on-the-ground conservation messaging seldom links to behavior change theories. We conducted 23 semistructured interviews with practitioners to examine the approaches they used to communicate with private landowners about beaver coexistence in Oregon (USA). Although we did not set out to interview practitioners about their messages targeting capability, opportunity, and motivation (elements of the COM-B model of behavior), we used the COM-B model to synthesize the primary dimensions of practitioners’ complex, real-world communication about human–wildlife coexistence. We found that practitioners used multiple communication channels to listen for and respond to landowners’ capability, opportunity, and motivation. They tailored messages to affirm and enhance knowledge and skills, identify and address site-specific and social contexts, and align beaver impacts with landowner goals. Our findings suggest the COM-B model can go beyond guiding audience analysis and behavioral intervention design to help practitioners tailor real-time communication with landowners about coexistence behavior. The model, based on our use of COM-B to analyze existing communication, could be used to provide practitioners with techniques for making sense of their existing communication efforts, for identifying gaps, and for dynamically tailoring their communication.

Oregon↗
USGS2026

21st-century mangrove expansion along the southeastern United States

Warming winter temperatures are driving range expansion of tropical, cold-sensitive mangroves into temperate ecosystems. Along the Atlantic coast of North America, the mangrove range limit is particularly sensitive to climate variability and historical data demonstrate that the mangrove-salt marsh ecotone on this coast has shifted recurrently during recent centuries. However, a comprehensive understanding of how this mangrove-salt marsh ecotone may shift in the future remains lacking. Here, we combine ensemble forecasting of mangrove distribution for the next century with high-resolution oceanographic dispersal simulations, phenological observations, and historical hurricane data to project future mangrove-salt marsh dynamics at the rapidly changing range limit in northeastern Florida (USA). We show that warming winter temperatures will drive continued poleward expansion of mangroves along North America's Atlantic coast, potentially reaching South Carolina by 2100. With ongoing climate change, suitable mangrove habitat is projected to expand beyond the current range limit, and dispersal simulations suggest successful colonization of these sites from established mangrove populations. Additionally, patterns in hurricane directionality and intensity and field reports of propagule presence reveal that these high-energy events may significantly contribute to future mangrove range expansion by facilitating long-distance, storm-driven propagule dispersal. The encroachment of mangroves in salt marsh-dominated latitudes is expected to substantially modify wetland ecosystem function and structure, emphasizing how the identification of newly colonizable habitat can inform conservation strategies and site-specific decisions on mangrove management.

Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina↗
USGS2026

FluOil—A tool for estimating the transport and deposition of oil-particle aggregates in rivers

The FluOil tool was developed to help with planning and early response for oil spills in rivers where subsurface oil-sediment interactions result in the formation of oil-particle aggregates (OPA). The turbulence and variable velocity associated with water flowing within a natural stream channel creates the conditions needed for an oil slick to break up into small droplets and mix in the water column, collide with sediment or organic detritus, and form OPA. This process is similar to what occurs due to wave action along a shoreline. The FluOil tool estimates how fast OPA travel downstream in rivers as well as when and where they may deposit. The FluOil tool relies on pre-existing channel hydraulic data along with user-specified OPA characteristics of size, settling velocity and critical shear stress to compute OPA transport. It is important to know where OPA are transported and accumulated for understanding potential impacts on drinking water intakes, burial of sensitive habitat beds, potential toxicity to benthic organisms, and prolonged sheening from resuspension and breakup. OPA tend to accumulate with fine-grained (silt and clay) sediment deposits (“mud” or “muck”) in backwater areas, oxbows, side channels, pools, and other slow-moving reaches of rivers during low flows. Deposited OPA can be resuspended during high flows, driving continued environmental impact concerns that may extend beyond typical oil spill response timelines.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2026

Machine learning generated streamflow drought forecasts for the conterminous United States (CONUS): developing and evaluating an operational tool to enhance sub-seasonal to seasonal streamflow drought early warning for gaged locations

Forecasts of streamflow drought, when streamflow declines below typical levels, are notably less available than for floods or meteorological drought, despite widespread impacts. We apply machine learning (ML) models to forecast streamflow drought 1–13 weeks ahead at 3,219 streamgages across the conterminous United States. We applied two ML methods (Long short-term memory neural networks; Light Gradient-Boosting Machine) and two benchmark models (persistence; Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) to predict weekly streamflow percentiles with independent models for each forecast horizon. ML models outperformed benchmarks in predicting continuous streamflow percentiles below 30%. ML models generally performed worse than persistence models for discrete classification (moderate, severe, extreme) but exceeded the benchmark models for drought onset/termination. Performance was better for less intense droughts and shorter horizons, with predictive power for 1–4 weeks for severe droughts (10% threshold). This work highlights challenges and opportunities to advance hydrological drought forecasting and supports a new experimental forecasting tool.

conterminous United States↗
USGS2026

Integrating climate data and river modeling to reveal Chinook salmon habitat conditions in subarctic river basins

Climatic extremes can impact the productivity of aquatic species, affecting ecosystems and fishery-dependent communities. Advances in climate products, such as gridded datasets and downscaled projections, may be useful for quantifying freshwater habitat conditions and predicting climate change effects on fish. However, limited guidance exists for selecting climate products to develop indicators of freshwater habitat conditions that influence fish population dynamics. Here, we develop an approach for identifying streamflow and stream temperature models to address this need. We evaluated skill in predicted versus observed streamflow and stream temperature, with predictions depending on different models and gridded climate data as inputs. The best performing models were used in a case study exploring habitat conditions influencing Chinook salmon in the Yukon and Kuskokwim River basins, two remote high-latitude watersheds with few in situ habitat observations and recent salmon declines. Three modeled streamflow datasets had variable performance (median Nash–Sutcliffe efficiencies from 0.39 to 0.70). Three gridded temperature products differed in their ability to explain variation in weekly stream temperatures (median r 2 from 0.42 to 0.76). We selected a single gridded air temperature dataset to compare two novel predictive stream temperature models, both of which had good accuracy (root mean squared error [RMSE] of 1.19 and 0.95°C). Stream temperature indicators calculated from modeled daily data, maximum temperatures during adult migration and cumulative temperatures during juvenile rearing, had high spatial correlation across tributaries within the Yukon and Kuskokwim River basins and showed significant warming over the past 40 years. Streamflow indicators calculated from modeled daily data, maximum flow during spawning and median flow during rearing, had few trends and were largely uncorrelated within the Yukon River basin and moderately correlated within the Kuskokwim River basin. Overall, we found that generic measures of model performance varied considerably, and it was important to consider the models best suited to our case study. For both streamflow and stream temperature, multiple high-performing models allowed estimation of ecologically relevant conditions affecting Chinook salmon. The approach we used to estimate local-scale habitat conditions has value to identify synchronous conditions that may influence multiple salmon populations under a changing subarctic climate.

Alaska↗
USGS2026

Assessing future hydrologic extremes using an integrated hydrology and river operations model in the Russian River watershed

Study region The Russian River watershed, situated in coastal, northern California, experiences hydrologic extremes, including periodic droughts and flooding. Water managers are working to maintain sustainable water supplies and environmental flows, while mitigating flood risks. Study focus This paper introduces an integrated hydrology and river operations model for the Russian River watershed. This model is distinct from models in previous studies because it represents surface-groundwater interactions and uses climate forcings to estimate dynamic water use demands that are superimposed onto both reservoir operations and water supply constraints. The model was used to examine three historical (1990–2015) and eight future (2016–2099) water use and climate change scenarios. New hydrological insights for the region The direct connection between streams and aquifers facilitated both annual aquifer replenishment by high winter streamflows and streamflow depletion by groundwater wells (19 % of pumped groundwater in alluvial aquifers from stream leakage) during critical low flow periods. Simulated streamflow changes included 59 % longer and 54 % more severe streamflow droughts, 26 % lower seasonal low streamflows, and up to 125 % higher peak streamflows, averaged over future climate and water use scenarios, suggesting increased future flood and water availability risks. Results showed the importance of reservoir operations for mitigating the impacts of increased hydroclimatic volatility, despite a decrease in reservoir reliability at Lake Mendocino, suggesting that reservoir management may be used to decrease future risks.

California↗
USGS2026

Season and antecedent conditions impact concentration-discharge relationships for dissolved organic carbon and alkalinity in southeast Alaskan watershed

Fluvial export of dissolved carbon plays an important role in watershed-scale biogeochemistry. Predicted changes in climate are expected to impact watershed hydrologic regimes, and in turn, the sources and export of dissolved carbon from watersheds. Here, we utilize high resolution measurements of discharge and dissolved carbon concentration to examine how concentration-discharge (CQ) relationships vary seasonally and during high flow events over the main runoff season (May–October) in a temperate forested watershed in Southeast Alaska. Concentration-discharge relationships for dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and alkalinity demonstrated strong seasonal patterns, with more linear relationships in May and June versus other months. Changing power law model slopes ( b values; the exponent in a power law regression between runoff and carbon yields) indicated potentially shifting watershed sources (biogenic vs. geologic) and contrasting dominant flowpaths (shallow vs. deeper groundwater) for DOC and alkalinity over the sampling period. During the largest storm event of the study, DOC and alkalinity b values shifted from an overall pattern of transport (mean b = 1.58 values >1.0 indicate transport limitation) and source limitation (mean b = 0.48, values <1.0 indicate source limitation) to chemostatic (DOC, b = 0.99; alkalinity, b = 1.019). In June through August, patterns in hysteresis index suggest that CQ relationships were altered when storms followed in close succession to each other. Together, these findings indicate that seasonal and antecedent flow conditions play a role in dissolved carbon export from forested watersheds. Understanding these dynamics, particularly during winter months, will become increasingly important as changes to hydroclimate impact riverine carbon export.

Alaska↗
USGS2026

Tectonic implications of transitional melting regimes from petrological, geochronological, and compositional characterization of the ophiolitic Seventymile terrane, Alaska, USA

New geochemical, U-Pb geochronology, and Sr-Nd-Hf isotope data provide evidence for the tectonic evolution of the Seventymile terrane in interior Alaska, USA. Ultramafic and mafic rocks of the Seventymile terrane are thought to represent components of a dismembered ophiolite and provide unique constraints on regional terrane evolution and accretion. The Seventymile ophiolite represents fragments of the Devonian to Permian Slide Mountain Ocean (SMO) that separated allochthonous and parautochthonous continental fragments of western North America. It now occurs as multiple thrust sheets containing Permian mafic and ultramafic rocks overlying and/or possibly imbricated with amphibolite-facies supracrustal rocks of allochthonous Yukon-Tanana terrane and parautochthonous North America. Seventymile klippen contain variably serpentinized peridotite, primarily harzburgite, low-grade meta-mafic rocks, and minor oceanic sedimentary rocks (argillite, chert, limestone, and metasandstone). Mafic rocks include gabbro to diabase, typically as dikes, veinlets, or rare massive stocks intruding peridotite. Mafic rocks also include greenstones of the Seventymile assemblage in klippen structurally underlying, and in shear zone contact with, ultramafic klippen. New trace element and radiogenic isotope data from mafic magmatic rocks associated with the Seventymile ultramafic bodies show evidence for a weakly subduction-modified mantle source, like the mantle source of normal mid-ocean-ridge basalt (N-MORB) or back-arc basin basalt (BABB). Seventymile assemblage greenstones are more heterogeneous. They range from N-MORB to enriched mid-ocean-ridge basalt (E-MORB) and ocean-island basalt (OIB), with a subset of samples indicative of continental arc affinity. These geochemistry results indicate that distinct tectonic environments are represented by at least two, and possibly three, lithological and structural units comprising the Seventymile terrane. Hf-Nd isotope systematics are consistent with a depleted MORB mantle (DMM)−like component that overlaps with Pacific MORB. Primary zircon is rare, but new in situ U-Pb data for gabbro and greenstone indicate ca. 274−272 Ma peak zircon and titanite crystallization. Scattered younger zircons define a ca. 255 Ma zircon peak and correspond to secondary crystallization associated with baddeleyite reaction of high-Si fluids during low-grade metamorphism. If Seventymile suites are contemporaneous, obduction associated with the closure of the SMO resulted in the stacking of ophiolitic packages representing distinct tectonomagmatic settings across the transition from pericontinental, to epicontinental, to distal ocean back-arc. Intrusions hosted in klippe of ultramafic rocks, plus the least subduction-modified greenstones underlying them, geologically and compositionally resemble Slide Mountain rocks of the Campbell Range formation in eastern Yukon and may provide a new piercing point across the Tintina fault.

Alaska, British Columbia↗
USGS2026

Magnitude conversion relations create substantial differences in seismic hazard models

Earthquake catalogs are essential data inputs for seismic hazard modeling. Because earthquake magnitudes are reported in a variety of types (e.g., local magnitudes and moment magnitudes), magnitude conversion relationships must be used to convert the different magnitude types present in a catalog to a uniform magnitude type to avoid biases in the hazard computation. However, these conversion relationships are often uncertain and have been shown to sometimes perform poorly. Here, we investigate the sensitivity of the gridded seismicity component of the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) to the catalog conversion equations in the Eastern United States. In the 2023 NSHM, magnitudes of various types were converted to moment magnitudes using equations developed by the Central and Eastern United States Seismic Source Characterization for Nuclear Facilities (CEUS‐SSCn), based on least‐squares (LS) regressions made using data from a catalog containing events up through 2008. We recompute these equations using events in the Advanced National Seismic System Comprehensive Earthquake Catalog with multiple magnitudes from 2000 to 2023. Although we prefer the use of orthogonal regressions for our datasets, LS regressions produce broadly similar results, with both approaches exhibiting large deviations from the CEUS‐SSCn conversions, especially at smaller magnitudes. We compare the spatial distribution of annual rates using three different models: (1) the 2023 NSHM conversions, (2) our updated conversions, and (3) no conversions. We find that the choice of conversions leads to substantial differences in the rate forecasts, which can greatly impact the seismic hazard model, particularly in regions with low‐seismicity rates such as the Eastern United States, where the hazard is dominated by gridded seismicity rather than a fault model.

Seismological Research Letters↗
USGS2026

Is satellite-derived bathymetry vertical accuracy dependent on satellite mission and processing method?

This research focusses on three satellite-derived bathymetry methods and optical satellite instruments: (1) a stereo photogrammetry bathymetry module (SaTSeaD) developed for the NASA Ames stereo pipeline open-source software (version 3.6.0) using stereo WorldView data; (2) physics-based radiative transfer equations (PBSDB) using Landsat data; and (3) a modified composite band-ratio method for Sentinel-2 (SatBathy) with an initial simplified calibration, followed by a more rigorous linear regression against in situ bathymetry data. All methods were tested in three different areas with different geological and environmental conditions, Cabo Rojo, Puerto Rico; Key West, Florida; and Cocos Lagoon and Achang Flat Reef Preserve, Guam. It is demonstrated that all satellite derived bathymetry (SDB) methods have increased accuracy when the results are aligned with higher-accuracy ICESat-2 ATL24 track bathymetry data using the iterative closest point (ICP). SDB vertical accuracy depends more on location characteristics than the method or optical satellite instrument used. All error metrics considered (mean absolute error, median absolute deviation, and root mean square error) can be less than 5% of the maximum bathymetry depth penetration for at least one method, although not necessarily for the same method for all sites. The SDB error distribution tends to be bimodal irrespective of method, satellite instrument, alignment, site, or maximum bathymetry depth, leading to the potential ineffectiveness of traditional error metrics, such as the root mean square error. However, our analysis demonstrates that performing detrending where possible can achieve an error distribution as close to normality as possible for which error metrics are more diagnostic.

Florida↗
USGS2026

Designing biosurveillance using target analysis for a cryptic invasive species, the brown treesnake (Boiga irregularis)

Biosurveillance is especially important for invasive species that are difficult to control or remove once established. Target analysis, or the strategic evaluation of factors that affect or improve detection of organisms, is one approach to improve biosurveillance over time. Due to their ecologically and economically devastating effects, brown treesnakes ( Boiga irregularis ), an invasive snake in the United States territory of Guam, have a dedicated biosecurity program to prevent their spread. Guam has been occupied by brown treesnakes since the 1940s, and they are distributed throughout the island. The neighboring Saipan Island, otherwise known as Saipan, participates in biosecurity programs designed to prevent their establishment. We evaluated biosurveillance protocols within rapid response and detection exercises for brown treesnakes. Our goal was to identify, account for, and reduce potential error when inferring absence from lack of detection using data collected in Guam and Saipan. We evaluated 1) whether brown treesnake detection probability was density dependent; 2) whether using terrestrial environmental DNA ( eDNA ) sampling detected snakes in occupied areas; 3) the likelihood brown treesnakes would have been detected in Saipan, given sampling effort during a biosurveillance exercise, and whether lizards could be used as a proxy on snake-free islands for estimating factors that affect detection; 4) the effect of transect design on pacing and subsequently pacing on lizard counts; and 5) the importance of observer training in surveying for cryptic reptiles and completing broad versus targeted bioinventories. We found that brown treesnake detection probability was density dependent when using visual surveys and declined with abundance in Guam, supporting that greater effort was required to have high confidence that lack of detection supported absence in areas with low snake densities. The terrestrial eDNA sampling protocol we developed was effective at detecting snakes in occupied locations in Guam and may be a complementary tool. However, further validation of eDNA protocols would still be required for early detection application. We also found that among trained observers, the ability to detect lizards was positively predictive of the number of snakes they detected at the standard snake densities in Guam. Thus, lizard detection appeared to be a reasonable proxy for evaluating visual search protocols for snakes on snake-free islands. Overall, creating easy pace-setting relationships between time and distance (i.e., 10 m per min), with flagging that clearly marked location on a transect, greatly reduced variability in search pace across survey nights. Observers that were continuously trained to maintain brown treesnake search profiles detected twice as many, on average, cryptic reptiles compared to individuals who had never received training, which was not true for the non-reptiles (birds and small mammals). Additionally, conducting broad bioinventories with many target species reduced detection of the target species, and this was increasingly true as years since the observer completed training for the target species increased. We thus found that designing biosurveillance exercises to evaluate search protocols can help improve or refine survey methods to reduce noise in the data, and accounting for that can improve the estimated confidence that failure to detect an invasive species infers absence.

NeoBiota↗
USGS2026

Toxicity of 6PPD alternatives to salmonid cell lines

Stormwater runoff in urban areas introduces numerous anthropogenic chemicals into surrounding aquatic environments. One such chemical is 6PPD ( N -(1,3-Dimethylbutyl)- N ’-phenyl- p- phenylenediamine), the primary antidegradant responsible for protecting tire rubber from ozone-induced degradation and cracking. When exposed to ozone on the road surface 6PPD is transformed into the toxic transformation product 6PPD-quinone (6PPDQ). This compound is highly lethal to coho salmon ( O ncorhynchus kisutch ), and 24 hour 50% lethal concentrations (LC 50 ; 41-95 ng/L) are frequently detected in urban streams during stormwater runoff events 1-5 . The highest stream concentrations of 6PPDQ and most extensive coho salmon mortality occur in high-traffic urban areas, where tire wear particles accumulate due to the frequent braking and acceleration of cars 6 . In the Seattle area, some coho salmon-bearing streams can lose over 90% of returning females prior to spawning due to 6PPDQ-containing runoff 7 . Prespawn loss of this magnitude could result in the extinction of some urban spawning populations 8 . Importantly, the lethal effects of 6PPDQ have been observed in several other salmonid species, indicating that its impact may threaten fish health for urban aquatic environments globally 9-11 . The ubiquity of 6PPD in automobile tires, high toxicity of the transformation product 6PPDQ, and prevalence of 6PPD and 6PPDQ in environmental matrices has spurred investigations into alternative rubber antiozonants to replace 6PPD that retain tire performance while reducing ecological harm. A technical memorandum provided to the legislature by the Washington State Department of Ecology summarized a list of potential 6PPD alternatives requiring further study, including several structurally similar p-phenylenediamines (PPDs) 12 . However, the structural similarity of other PPDs to 6PPD and their known production of quinone transformation products 13 raises concerns that they may elicit similar toxic effects as 6PPDQ. Currently, investigations into the toxicity of proposed PPD alternatives or their ozonated transformation products in coho salmon are limited, representing a significant data gap in evaluating whether they offer improved environmental safety over 6PPD. This project investigated the toxicity of proposed alternative rubber antiozonants in vitro using immortalized cell lines derived from three salmonid species with known differences in sensitivity to 6PPDQ (coho salmon, Chinook salmon ( O. tshawytscha ), rainbow trout ( O. mykiss )) 1 . These immortalized cell lines replicate toxic responses observed in in vivo studies, while enabling higher-throughput testing and reducing the need for animal use and other resource-intensive procedures. The antiozonants and their transformation products selected for testing were chosen based on multiple criteria, including their inclusion in the Ecology technical memorandum, structural substitutions (e.g., branched/cyclic alkyl vs aryl substitutions), commercial availability, and input from the Washington State Department of Ecology and other industry experts.

Report↗