Geology topics

Zhengxi Tan

Publications and source records attributed to Zhengxi Tan.

12 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2017

Simulating the effects of management practices on cropland soil organic carbon changes in the Temperate Prairies Ecoregion of the United States from 1980 to 2012

Understanding the effects of management practices on soil organic carbon (SOC) is important for designing effective policies to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions in agriculture. In the Midwest United States, management practices in the croplands have been improved to increase crop production and reduce SOC loss since the 1980s. Many studies of SOC dynamics in croplands have been performed to understand the effects of management, but the results are still not conclusive. This study quantified SOC dynamics in the Midwest croplands from 1980 to 2012 with the General Ensemble Biogeochemical Modelling System (GEMS) and available management data. Our results showed that the total SOC in the croplands decreased from 1190 Tg C in 1980 to 1107 TgC in 1995, and then increased to 1176 TgC in 2012. Continuous cropping and intensive tillage may have driven SOC loss in the early period. The increase of crop production and adoption of conservation tillage increased the total SOC so that the decrease in the total SOC stock after 32 years was only 1%. The small change in average SOC did not reflect the large spatial variations of SOC change in the region. Major SOC losses occurred in the north and south of the region, where SOC baseline values were high and cropland production was low. The SOC gains took place in the central part of the region where SOC baseline values were moderate and cropland production was higher than the other areas. We simulated multiple land-use land-cover (LULC) change scenarios and analyzed the results. The analysis showed that among all the LULC changes, agricultural technology that increased cropland production had the greatest impact on SOC changes, followed by the tillage practices, changes in crop species, and the conversions of cropland to other land use. Information on management practice induced spatial variation in SOC can be useful for policy makers and farm managers to develop long-term management strategies for increasing SOC sequestration in different areas.

Ecological Modelling↗

USGS2016

Estimating carbon sequestration in the piedmont ecoregion of the United States from 1971 to 2010

Background: Human activities have diverse and profound impacts on ecosystem carbon cycles. The Piedmont ecoregion in the eastern United States has undergone significant land use and land cover change in the past few decades. The purpose of this study was to use newly available land use and land cover change data to quantify carbon changes within the ecoregion. Land use and land cover change data (60-m spatial resolution) derived from sequential remotely sensed Landsat imagery were used to generate 960-m resolution land cover change maps for the Piedmont ecoregion. These maps were used in the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) to simulate ecosystem carbon stock and flux changes from 1971 to 2010. Results: Results show that land use change, especially urbanization and forest harvest had significant impacts on carbon sources and sinks. From 1971 to 2010, forest ecosystems sequestered 0.25 Mg C ha−1 yr−1, while agricultural ecosystems sequestered 0.03 Mg C ha−1 yr−1. The total ecosystem C stock increased from 2271 Tg C in 1971 to 2402 Tg C in 2010, with an annual average increase of 3.3 Tg C yr−1. Conclusions: Terrestrial lands in the Piedmont ecoregion were estimated to be weak net carbon sink during the study period. The major factors contributing to the carbon sink were forest growth and afforestation; the major factors contributing to terrestrial emissions were human induced land cover change, especially urbanization and forest harvest. An additional amount of carbon continues to be stored in harvested wood products. If this pool were included the carbon sink would be stronger. Keywords: Land-use change, Carbon change, Piedmont ecoregion, IBIS model

Carbon Balance and Management↗

USGS2015

Ecosystem carbon stocks and sequestration potential of federal lands across the conterminous United States

Federal lands across the conterminous United States (CONUS) account for 23.5% of the CONUS terrestrial area but have received no systematic studies on their ecosystem carbon (C) dynamics and contribution to the national C budgets. The methodology for US Congress-mandated national biological C sequestration potential assessment was used to evaluate ecosystem C dynamics in CONUS federal lands at present and in the future under three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios (IPCC SRES) A1B, A2, and B1. The total ecosystem C stock was estimated as 11,613 Tg C in 2005 and projected to be 13,965 Tg C in 2050, an average increase of 19.4% from the baseline. The projected annual C sequestration rate (in kilograms of carbon per hectare per year) from 2006 to 2050 would be sinks of 620 and 228 for forests and grasslands, respectively, and C sources of 13 for shrublands. The federal lands’ contribution to the national ecosystem C budget could decrease from 23.3% in 2005 to 20.8% in 2050. The C sequestration potential in the future depends not only on the footprint of individual ecosystems but also on each federal agency’s land use and management. The results presented here update our current knowledge about the baseline ecosystem C stock and sequestration potential of federal lands, which would be useful for federal agencies to decide management practices to achieve the national greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation goal.

PNAS↗

USGS2015

Quantitative attribution of major driving forces on soil organic carbon dynamics

Soil organic carbon (SOC) storage plays a major role in the global carbon cycle and is affected by many factors including land use/management changes (e.g., biofuel production-oriented changes). However, the contributions of various factors to SOC changes are not well understood and quantified. This study was designed to investigate the impacts of changing farming practices, initial SOC levels, and biological enhancement of grain production on SOC dynamics and to attribute the relative contributions of major driving forces (CO 2 enrichment and farming practices) using a fractional factorial modeling design. The case study at a crop site in Iowa in the United States demonstrated that the traditional corn-soybean (CS) rotation could still accumulate SOC over this century (from 4.2 to 6.8 kg C/m 2 ) under the current condition; whereas the continuous-corn (CC) system might have a higher SOC sequestration potential than CS. In either case, however, residue removal could reduce the sink potential substantially. Long-term simulation results also suggested that the equilibrium SOC level may vary greatly (∼5.7 to ∼11 kg C/m 2 ) depending on cropping systems and management practices, and projected growth enhancement could make the magnitudes higher (∼7.8 to ∼13 kg C/m 2 ). Importantly, the factorial design analysis indicated that residue management had the most significant impact (contributing 49.4%) on SOC changes, followed by CO 2 Enrichment (37%), Tillage (6.2%), the combination of CO 2 Enrichment-Residue removal (5.8%), and Fertilization (1.6%). In brief, this study is valuable for understanding the major forces driving SOC dynamics of agroecosystems and informative for decision-makers when seeking the enhancement of SOC sequestration potential and sustainability of biofuel production, especially in the Corn Belt region of the United States.

Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems↗

USGS2015

Corn Belt soil carbon and macronutrient budgets with projected sustainable stover harvest

Corn ( Zea mays L.) stover has been identified as a prime feedstock for biofuel production in the U.S. Corn Belt because of its perceived abundance and availability, but long-term stover harvest effects on regional nutrient budgets have not been evaluated. We defined the minimum stover requirement (MSR) to maintain current soil organic carbon levels and then estimated current and future soil carbon (C), nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and potassium (K) budgets for various stover harvest scenarios. Analyses for 2006 through 2010 across the entire Corn Belt indicated that currently, 28 Tg or 1.6 Mg ha −1 of stover could be sustainably harvested from 17.95 million hectares (Mha) with N, P, and K removal of 113, 26, and 47 kg ha −1 , respectively, and C removal for that period was estimated to be 4.55 Mg C ha −1 . Assuming continued yield increases and a planted area of 26.74 Mha in 2050, 77.4 Tg stover (or 2.4 Mg ha −1 ) could be sustainably harvested with N, P, and K removal of 177, 37, and 72 kg ha −1 , respectively, along with C removal of &sim;6.57 Mg C ha −1 . Although there would be significant variation across the region, harvesting only the excess over the MSR under current fertilization rates would result in a small depletion of soil N (−5 ± 27 kg ha −1 ) and K (−20 ± 31 kg ha −1 ) and a moderate surplus of P (36 ± 18 kg ha −1 ). Our 2050 projections based on continuing to keep the MSR, but having higher yields indicate that soil N and K deficits would become larger, thus emphasize the importance of balancing soil nutrient supply with crop residue removal.

Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Miss↗

USGS2015

Soil nutrient budgets following projected corn stover harvest for biofuel production in the conterminous United States

Increasing demand for food and biofuel feedstocks may substantially affect soil nutrient budgets, especially in the United States where there is great potential for corn ( Zea mays L) stover as a biofuel feedstock. This study was designed to evaluate impacts of projected stover harvest scenarios on budgets of soil nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and potassium (K) currently and in the future across the conterminous United States. The required and removed N, P, and K amounts under each scenario were estimated on the basis of both their average contents in grain and stover and from an empirical model. Our analyses indicate a small depletion of soil N (−4 ± 35 kg ha −1 ) and K (−6 ± 36 kg ha −1 ) and a moderate surplus of P (37 ± 21 kg ha −1 ) currently on the national average, but with a noticeable variation from state to state. After harvesting both grain and projected stover, the deficits of soil N, P, and K were estimated at 114–127, 26–27, and 36–53 kg ha −1 yr −1 , respectively, in 2006–2010; 131–173, 29–32, and 41–96 kg ha −1 yr −1 , respectively, in 2020; and 161–207, 35–39, and 51–111 kg ha −1 yr −1 , respectively, in 2050. This study indicates that the harvestable stover amount derived from the minimum stover requirement for maintaining soil organic carbon level scenarios under current fertilization rates can be sustainable for soil nutrient supply and corn production at present, but the deficit of P and K at the national scale would become larger in the future.

GCB Bioenergy↗

USGS2014

Comparing cropland net primary production estimates from inventory, a satellite-based model, and a process-based model in the Midwest of the United States

Accurately quantifying the spatial and temporal variability of net primary production (NPP) for croplands is essential to understand regional cropland carbon dynamics. We compared three NPP estimates for croplands in the Midwestern United States: inventory-based estimates using crop yield data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS); estimates from the satellite-based Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) NPP product; and estimates from the General Ensemble biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS) process-based model. The three methods estimated mean NPP in the range of 469–687 g C m −2 yr −1 and total NPP in the range of 318–490 Tg C yr −1 for croplands in the Midwest in 2007 and 2008. The NPP estimates from crop yield data and the GEMS model showed the mean NPP for croplands was over 650 g C m −2 yr −1 while the MODIS NPP product estimated the mean NPP was less than 500 g C m −2 yr −1 . MODIS NPP also showed very different spatial variability of the cropland NPP from the other two methods. We found these differences were mainly caused by the difference in the land cover data and the crop specific information used in the methods. Our study demonstrated that the detailed mapping of the temporal and spatial change of crop species is critical for estimating the spatial and temporal variability of cropland NPP. We suggest that high resolution land cover data with species–specific crop information should be used in satellite-based and process-based models to improve carbon estimates for croplands.

Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minneso↗

USGS2012

MODIS-informed greenness responsesto daytime land surface temperaturefluctuations and wildfire disturbancesin the Alaskan Yukon River Basin

Pronounced climate warming and increased wildfire disturbances are known to modify forest composition and control the evolution of the boreal ecosystem over the Yukon River Basin (YRB) in interior Alaska. In this study, we evaluate the post-fire green-up rate using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) derived from 250 m 7 day eMODIS (an alternative and application-ready type of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data) acquired between 2000 and 2009. Our analyses indicate measureable effects on NDVI values from vegetation type, burn severity, post-fire time, and climatic variables. The NDVI observations from both fire scars and unburned areas across the Alaskan YRB showed a tendency of an earlier start to the growing season (GS); the annual variations in NDVI were significantly correlated to daytime land surface temperature (LST) fluctuations; and the rate of post-fire green-up depended mainly on burn severity and the time of post-fire succession. The higher average NDVI values for the study period in the fire scars than in the unburned areas between 1950 and 2000 suggest that wildfires enhance post-fire greenness due to an increase in post-fire evergreen and deciduous species components

Alaska↗

USGS2012

Estimations of evapotranspiration and water balance with uncertainty over the Yukon River Basin

In this study, the revised Remote Sensing-Penman Monteith model (RS-PM) was used to scale up evapotranspiration (ET) over the entire Yukon River Basin (YRB) from three eddy covariance (EC) towers covering major vegetation types. We determined model parameters and uncertainty using a Bayesian-based method in the three EC sites. The 95 % confidence interval for the aggregate ecosystem ET ranged from 233 to 396 mm yr −1 with an average of 319 mm yr −1 . The mean difference between precipitation and evapotranspiration ( W ) was 171 mm yr −1 with a 95 % confidence interval of 94–257 mm yr −1 . The YRB region showed a slight increasing trend in annual precipitation for the 1982–2009 time period, while ET showed a significant increasing trend of 6.6 mm decade −1 . As a whole, annual W showed a drying trend over YRB region.

Alaska↗

USGS2012

The General Ensemble Biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS) and its applications to agricultural systems in the United States: Chapter 18

The General Ensemble Biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS) was es in individual models, it uses multiple site-scale biogeochemical models to perform model simulations. Second, it adopts Monte Carlo ensemble simulations of each simulation unit (one site/pixel or group of sites/pixels with similar biophysical conditions) to incorporate uncertainties and variability (as measured by variances and covariance) of input variables into model simulations. In this chapter, we illustrate the applications of GEMS at the site and regional scales with an emphasis on incorporating agricultural practices. Challenges in modeling soil carbon dynamics and greenhouse emissions are also discussed.

Book chapter↗

USGS2012

Current and potential sustainable corn stover feedstock for biofuel production in the United States

Increased demand for corn ( Zea mays L.) stover as a feedstock for cellulosic ethanol raises concerns about agricultural sustainability. Excessive corn stover harvesting could have long-term impacts on soil quality. We estimated current and future stover production and evaluated the potential harvestable stover amount (HSA) that could be used for biofuel feedstock in the United States by defining the minimum stover requirement (MSR) associated with the current soil organic carbon (SOC) content, tillage practices, and crop rotation systems. Here we show that the magnitude of the current HSA is limited (31 Tg y −1 , dry matter) due to the high MSR for maintaining the current SOC content levels of soils that have a high carbon content. An alternative definition of MSR for soils with a moderate level of SOC content could significantly elevate the annual HSA to 68.7 Tg, or even to 132.2 Tg if the amount of currently applied manure is counted to partially offset the MSR. In the future, a greater potential for stover feedstock could come from an increase in stover yield, areal harvest index, and/or the total planted area. These results suggest that further field experiments on MSR should be designed to identify differences in MSR magnitude between maintaining SOC content and preventing soil erosion, and to understand the role of current SOC content level in determining MSR from soils with a wide range of carbon contents and climatic conditions.

Biomass and Bioenergy↗

USGS2009

Modeling to evaluate the response of savanna-derived cropland to warming–drying stress and nitrogen fertilizers

Many savannas in West Africa have been converted to croplands and are among the world’s regions most vulnerable to climate change due to deteriorating soil quality. We focused on the savanna-derived cropland in northern Ghana to simulate its sensitivity to projected climate change and nitrogen fertilization scenarios. Here we show that progressive warming–drying stress over the twenty-first century will enhance soil carbon emissions from all kinds of lands of which the natural ecosystems will be more vulnerable to variation in climate variables, particularly in annual precipitation. The carbon emissions from all croplands, however, could be mitigated by applying nitrogen fertilizer at 30–60 kg N ha − 1 year − 1 . The uncertainties of soil organic carbon budgets and crop yields depend mainly on the nitrogen fertilization rate during the first 40 years and then are dominated by climate drying stress. The replenishment of soil nutrients, especially of nitrogen through fertilization, could be one of the priority options for policy makers and farm managers as they evaluate mitigation and adaptation strategies of cropping systems and management practices to sustain agriculture and ensure food security under a changing climate.

Climatic Change↗