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Zhe Zhu

Publications and source records attributed to Zhe Zhu.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Towards seamless global 30-meter terrestrial monitoring: Evaluating 2022 cloud free coverage of harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2 (HLS) V2.0

Global observations at 30-m ground sampling distance (GSD) are now possible at a cadence of 1-3 days by combining Landsat 8 and 9 with Sentinel-2A and -2B satellites. Previous studies characterizing pixel-level Landsat-class measurement frequency used data from different sources but offered little information on observation availability after rigorous quality screening. This study examined the coverage frequency of HLS V2.0 data for 2022, the first year all four satellites data were available. These data have had quality control filtering and harmonization, and therefore reflect the spatial-temporal distribution of usable observations. On average, HLS data provide observations every 1.6 days at the global scale, and 2.2 days in the data-scarce tropical regions, regardless of cloud cover. The global mean and median cloud-free observations were 69 and 64, respectively. The frequency of good-quality observations varies geographically and seasonally due to changes in satellite swath overlap, cloud frequency, and solar illumination. High latitudes (>~75°N) exhibit the highest number of cloud-free observations between March and September. However, data are unavailable during winter months due to low solar elevation angles and boreal regions have a lower number of clear observations in the summer months. The tropical regions have the lowest number of clear observations. More frequent HLS observations could improve terrestrial monitoring. We mapped the monthly and weekly number of clear observations globally to show where HLS data could support monthly or sub-weekly time series applications.

IEEE Geoscience and Remote Sensing Letters

Need and vision for global medium-resolution Landsat and Sentinel-2 data products

Global changes in climate and land use are threatening natural ecosystems, biodiversity, and the ecosystem services people rely on. This is why it is necessary to track and monitor spatiotemporal change at a level of detail that can inform science, management, and policy development. The current constellation of multiple Landsat and Sentinel-2 satellites collecting imagery at predominantly ≤ "> ≤ 30-m spatial resolution affords an opportunity for the generation of global medium- resolution products every few days. Our goal is to both identify the information needs and provide direction towards the generation of a suite of global, high-level, systematically-generated, medium-resolution products designed for both management and science. Our vision builds on the success of the NASA MODIS/VIIRS product suite, while recognizing the unique strengths of medium-resolution satellite data given their higher spatial resolution and longer time series. We propose a suite of 13 essential products that enable the characterization of the current state and changes in the biosphere, cryosphere, and hydrosphere, and would fill information needs identified by the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites for the Global Climate Observing System and the Global Terrestrial Observing System, by the National Research Council of the US National Academies in the decadal survey, and by others. These products are: land cover, land cover change, burned area, forest loss, vegetation indices, phenology, dynamic habitat indices, albedo, land surface temperature, snow cover, ice extent, surface water extent, and evapotranspiration. Furthermore, we provide a list of desirable products poised for addition to the essential products (e.g., crop type, emissivity, and ice sheet velocity). Lastly, we suggest aspirational products requiring further algorithm development (e.g., forest structure and crop yield). For the identified essential products, algorithms are in place, making it feasible to begin generating products systematically. These products should be accompanied by quality and accuracy assessments undertaken following consensus protocols. Five decades after the first Landsat satellite, and two decades after the MODIS products were first produced, it is time now for readily available, standardized, and consistent high-level products built upon medium-resolution imagery, thereby fulfilling the promise and the vision that inspired the Landsat program since its inception.

Remote Sensing of Environment

Tracking mangrove condition changes using dense Landsat time series

Mangroves in tropical and subtropical coasts are subject to episodic disturbances, notably from severe storms, leading to potential widespread vegetation mortality. The ability of vegetation to recover varies, and with disturbances becoming more frequent and severe, it is vital to track and project vegetation responses to support management and policy decisions. Prior studies have largely focused on binary mangrove mapping (i.e., presence or absence), while tracking conditions and condition change have not received sufficient attention. In this paper, we demonstrate a method based on dense time series Landsat images for continuous monitoring of mangrove conditions, where we track three kinds of post-disturbance mangrove conditions, including disturbed (disturbed, with rebound to the previous state within one growing season), recovering (undergoing natural recovery in longer than one growing season), and declining (showing long-term decline after disturbance). The method starts with disturbance detection using the DEtection and Characterization Of the tiDal wEtland change (DECODE) algorithm, an existing dense time series model designed to detect disturbances in tidal wetlands with adaptation to tidal fluctuations. This algorithm is well suited for the detection of tidal wetland disturbances but does not provide satisfactory post-disturbance monitoring results, due to the substantial variability in post-disturbance Landsat observations. To better monitor post-disturbance conditions, a new time series fitting approach, DECODER (DECODE and Recovery), is proposed for the recovery stage. Additionally, for temporal segments divided by disturbance events, we built a random forest classifier with temporal-spectral variables derived from the time series model to characterize mangrove conditions. Employing this approach in Florida's mangroves, we generated condition maps, such as dieback and recovery, with an overall accuracy of approximately 97.96 ± 0.86- [95 % confidence intervals]. Comparing post-hurricane conditions in Florida revealed that the increased frequency and severity of disturbances are challenging mangrove resilience, potentially diminishing their ability to recover and sustain ecosystem functions.

Florida

National Land Cover Database 2019: A comprehensive strategy for creating the 1986-2019 forest disturbance product

The National Land Cover Database (NLCD) 2016 products show that, between 2001 and 2016, nearly half of the land cover change in the conterminous United States (CONUS) involved forested areas. To ensure the quality of NLCD land cover and land cover change products, it is important to accurately detect the location and time of forest disturbance. We designed a comprehensive strategy to integrate a continuous time series forest change detection method and a discrete 2-date forest change detection method to produce the NLCD 1986–2019 forest disturbance product, which shows the most recent forest disturbance date between the years 1986 and 2019 for every 2- to 3-year interval. This method, the Time-Series method Using Normalized Spectral Distance (NSD) index (TSUN), uses NSD to detect multi-date forest land cover changes and was shown to be easily extended to a new date even when new images were processed in a different way than previous date images. The discrete 2-date method uses the Multi-Index Integrated Change Analysis (MIICA) method to detect changes between 2-date images. A method based on confidence and object grouping was designed to combine the multiple MIICA outputs to improve change detection accuracy. Finally, an aggregation scheme was implemented to combine the TSUN output, the integrated MIICA results, and ancillary data to produce the NLCD 2019 forest disturbance 1986–2019 product. The initial accuracy assessments from 1,600 samples over 4 Landsat path/rows show that the producer’s and user’s accuracies of the 2001–2019 forest disturbance map are 76% and 74%, respectively. The final CONUS-wide forest disturbance product is provided at https://www.mrlc.gov/nlcd-2019-science-research-products .

conterminous United States

National Land Cover Database 2019: A new strategy for creating clean leaf-on and leaf-off Landsat composite images

National Land Cover Database (NLCD) 2019 is a new epoch of national land cover products for the conterminous United States. Image quality is fundamental to the quality of any land cover product. Image preprocessing has often taken a considerable proportion of overall time and effort for this kind of national project. An approach to prepare image inputs for NLCD 2019 production was developed to ensure efficiency and quality of operational production. Here, we introduce a new and comprehensive strategy to produce clear Landsat composite images for NLCD 2019 production. First, we developed a new median-value compositing method. Second, we designed parameter settings for selecting images and pixels to generate 4 composite images (leaf-on, leaf-off, primary reference, and complementary reference) for a target year based on the US Landsat Analysis Ready Data surface reflectance dataset. Third, we developed a method, referred to as Detection and Filling with Simulated Image, to detect and replace clouds and cloud shadow pixels to produce the final clean leaf-on and leaf-off image composites. This image compositing and processing strategy was implemented for the entire conterminous United States to produce images for NLCD 2019. Our image results and NLCD 2019 change detection and land cover products, which were released in July 2021, showed this new strategy to be effective and efficient.

ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing

Toward consistent change detection across irregular remote sensing time series observations

The use of remote sensing in time series analysis enables wall-to-wall monitoring of the land surface and is critical for assessing and understanding land cover and land use change and for understanding the Earth system as a whole. However, variability in remote sensing observation frequency through time and across space presents challenges for producing consistent change detection results throughout the available satellite record using approaches such as the Continuous Change Detection and Classification (CCDC) change detection methodology. Here we investigate new modifications to this methodology with the goal of improving accuracy and consistency in results and increasing flexibility for operational usage and future development. The modified method (Band-First Probability, or CCD-BFP) change detection procedure works by calculating a test for each band through time before summarizing between bands. We evaluate the CCD-BFP method compared to an existing implementation of CCDC using a variety of approaches, including a validation dataset of human-interpreted locations, comparison with data from fire events, use of simulated remote sensing data, and qualitative inspection of areas of interest. We find CCD-BFP improves consistency across time and space compared to the existing implementation of CCDC, with more similarity in rates of change across Landsat swath boundaries and before and after the launch of Landsat 7. Also, we find that CCD-BFP detects more of the change events in the validation dataset while reducing the overall number of change detections, indicating that it is able to more accurately capture the most notable land surface change events.

Remote Sensing of Environment

Evaluation of Landsat image compositing algorithms

We proposed a new image compositing algorithm (MAX-RNB) based on the maximum ratio of Near Infrared (NIR) to Blue band (RNB), and evaluated it together with nine other compositing algorithms: MAX-NDVI (maximum Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), MED-NIR (median NIR band), WELD (conterminous United States Web-Enabled Landsat Data), BAP (Best Available Pixel), PAC (Phenology Adaptive Composite), WPS (Weighted Parametric Scoring), MEDOID (medoid measurement), COSSIM (cosine similarity), and NLCD (National Land Cover Database). Each algorithm was applied to time series of Landsat observations collected within two separate years at six locations around the world, to produce monthly (July 1 ± 15 days), seasonal (July 1 ± 45 days), and annual (July 1 ± 180 days) composite images free of cloud, cloud shadow, and snow/ice. By comparing the composite images to reference Landsat images acquired in the growing season (closest to July 1 within ±15 days) for each year, we evaluated the performance of the algorithms in preserving the spectral and spatial fidelity (hereafter referred to as spectral and spatial evaluation, respectively), as well as land cover classification and land change detection (hereafter referred to as application evaluation). The results demonstrated that no single algorithm outperformed all other algorithms in all the evaluations, but that performance depended on compositing intervals and cloud cover. For monthly composites, the MAX-RNB algorithm generally produced the best results in the spectral and application evaluations. For seasonal composites, the NLCD algorithm produced the best results in the spectral and application evaluations. For annual composites, the PAC algorithm produced the best results in the spectral evaluation and change detection, whereas BAP produced the best results in land cover classification. The BAP algorithm also produced the best results in the spatial evaluation for all the compositing periods. This study provides a comprehensive guidance for selecting the most appropriate image compositing algorithm for different Landsat-based applications.

Remote Sensing of Environment

The 50-year Landsat collection 2 archive

The Landsat global consolidated data archive now exceeds 50 years. In recognition of the need for consistently processed data across the Landsat satellite series, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) initiated collection-based processing of the entire archive that was processed as Collection 1 in 2016. In preparation for the data from the now successfully launched Landsat 9, the USGS reprocessed the Landsat archive as Collection 2 in 2020. This paper describes the rationale for, and the contents and advancements provided by Collection 2, and highlights the differences between the Collection 1 and Collection 2 products. Notably, the Collection 2 products have improved geolocation and, for the first time, the USGS provides a global inventory of Level 2 surface reflectance and surface temperature products. Also for the first time, the USGS used a commercial cloud computing architecture to efficiently process the archive and enable direct cloud access of the Landsat products. The paper concludes with discussion of likely improvements expected in Collection 3 in preparation for the Landsat Next mission that is planned for launch in the early 2030s.

Science of Remote Sensing

Medium spatial resolution mapping of global land cover and land cover change across multiple decades from Landsat

Land cover maps are essential for characterizing the biophysical properties of the Earth’s land areas. Because land cover information synthesizes a rich array of information related to both the ecological condition of land areas and their exploitation by humans, they are widely used for basic and applied research that requires information related to land surface properties (e.g., terrestrial carbon models, water balance models, weather, and climate models) and are core inputs to models and analyses used by natural resource scientists and land managers. As the Earth’s global population has grown over the last several decades rates of land cover change have increased dramatically, with enormous impacts on ecosystem services (e.g., biodiversity, water supply, carbon sequestration, etc.). Hence, accurate information related to land cover is essential for both managing natural resources and for understanding society’s ecological, biophysical, and resource management footprint. To address the need for high-quality land cover information we are using the global record of Landsat observations to compile annual maps of global land cover from 2001 to 2020 at 30 m spatial resolution. To create these maps we use features derived from time series of Landsat imagery in combination with ancillary geospatial data and a large database of training sites to classify land cover at annual time step. The algorithm that we apply uses temporal segmentation to identify periods with stable land cover that are separated by breakpoints in the time series. Here we provide an overview of the methods and data sets we are using to create global maps of land cover. We describe the algorithms used to create these maps and the core land cover data sets that we are creating through this effort, and we summarize our approach to accuracy assessment. We also present a synthesis of early results and discuss the strengths and weaknesses of our early map products and the challenges that we have encountered in creating global land cover data sets from Landsat. Initial accuracy assessment for North America shows good overall accuracy (77.0 ± 2.0% correctly classified) and 79.8% agreement with the European Space Agency (ESA) WorldCover product. The land cover mapping results we report provide the foundation for robust, repeatable, and accurate mapping of global land cover and land cover change across multiple decades at 30 m spatial resolution from Landsat.

Frontiers in Remote Sensing

Tree regrowth duration map from LCMAP collection 1.0 land cover products in the conterminous United States, 1985–2017

Forest covers about one-third of the land area of the conterminous United States (CONUS) and plays an important role in offsetting carbon emissions and supporting local economies. Growing interest in forests as relatively cost-effective nature-based climate solutions, particularly restoration and reforestation activities, has increased the demand for information on forest regrowth and recovery following natural and anthropogenic disturbances (e.g., fire, harvest, or thinning). However, a wall-to-wall mapping of the CONUS tree regrowth duration at an annual time interval and 30-m resolution is still challenging. In this study, we utilized the annual land cover products to develop a dataset to quantify forest regrowth duration for CONUS over 1985–2017. The land cover data used to derive the tree regrowth duration map is from the primary land cover product in the U.S. Geological Survey’s Land Change Monitoring, Assessment, and Projection (LCMAP) collection. The LCMAP product used all available Landsat images to detect disturbances over forest and classify Grass/Shrub to Tree Cover transitions on an annual basis. The average regrowth duration was then calculated for each pixel. The regrowth duration map was validated using human interpreted annual reference data that were collected independently. The validation results show one-year of underestimation and 6-year standard deviation of error between the reference data and regrowth duration map. In southeastern CONUS, where major tree regrowth activities have been observed, our map showed higher accuracy with less than one-year bias and 3.6 years standard deviation of error. Forest in the southeast took around 5 years to recover, which was faster than other regions of CONUS. Many pixels had multiple disturbances during the 33-year study period in the region. The spatial pattern of the tree regrowth indicated intense harvesting activities in this region. The Pacific Northwest coast region was the second main area of tree regrowth, but this region often took multiple decades to recover. Given increasing interest in forests as nature-based climate solutions, the tree regrowth duration map can be used to assess reforestation activities as well as forest recovery following natural disturbance and harvesting.

Conterminous United States

Conterminous United States land-cover change (1985-2016): New insights from annual time series

Sample-based estimates augmented by complete coverage land-cover maps were used to estimate area and describe patterns of annual land-cover change across the conterminous United States (CONUS) between 1985 and 2016. Most of the CONUS land cover remained stable in terms of net class change over this time, but a substantial gross change dynamic was captured by the annual and cumulative time intervals. The dominant types of changes can be grouped into natural resource cycles, increases in urbanization, and surface-water dynamics. The annual estimates over the 30-year time series showed a reduction in the rate of urban expansion after 2006, new growth in cropland after 2007, but a net overall decline in cropland since 1985, and two eras of net tree cover loss, the first one early in the time series and the second starting in 2012. Our study provides a holistic assessment of the CONUS land-cover conversion (class) change and can serve as a new benchmark for future research.

Land

Implementation of the CCDC algorithm to produce the LCMAP Collection 1.0 annual land surface change product

The increasing availability of high-quality remote sensing data and advanced technologies have spurred land cover mapping to characterize land change from local to global scales. However, most land change datasets either span multiple decades at a local scale or cover limited time over a larger geographic extent. Here, we present a new land cover and land surface change dataset created by the Land Change Monitoring, Assessment, and Projection (LCMAP) program over the conterminous United States (CONUS). The LCMAP land cover change dataset consists of annual land cover and land cover change products over the period 1985-2017 at 30-meter resolution using Landsat and other ancillary data via the Continuous Change Detection and Classification (CCDC) algorithm. In this paper, we describe our novel approach to implement the CCDC algorithm to produce the LCMAP product suite composed of five land cover and five land surface change related products. The LCMAP land cover products were validated using a collection of ~ 25,000 reference samples collected independently across CONUS. The overall agreement for all years of the LCMAP primary land cover product reached 82.5%. The LCMAP products are produced through the LCMAP Information Warehouse and Data Store (IW+DS) and Shared Mesos Cluster systems that can process, store, and deliver all datasets for public access. To our knowledge, this is the first set of published 30m annual land cover and land cover change datasets that span from the 1980s to the present for the United States. The LCMAP product suite provides useful information for land resource management and facilitates studies to improve the understanding of terrestrial ecosystems and the complex dynamics of the Earth system. The LCMAP system could be implemented to produce global land change products in the future.

Earth System Science Data

A novel regression method for harmonic analysis of time series

Harmonic analysis of time series is an important technique in remote sensing to reveal seasonal land surface dynamics. However, frequency selection in the harmonic analysis is often difficult because high-frequency components are useful for delineating seasonal dynamics but sensitive to noise and gaps in time series. On the other hand, it is challenging to obtain temporally continuous satellite data with high quality because of atmospheric contamination. We developed a novel regression method named Harmonic Adaptive Penalty Operator (HAPO) for harmonic analysis of unevenly distributed time series. We introduced a new penalty function to minimize unexpected fluctuations in the model, which can substantially reduce the overfitting issue of regression in time series with temporal gaps. Specifically, the new penalty function minimizes the length of the model curve and the value range difference between the model and the time series observations. We compared HAPO with three widely used regression methods (OLS: Ordinary Least Squares; LASSO: Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator; and Ridge) in different scenarios using Landsat time series data across the United States. First, we evaluated methods using the Landsat surface reflectance time series within a single year. HAPO showed low and consistent monthly Root Mean Square Deviation (RMSD) values, in which most of the time RMSD of predicted reflectance were less than 0.04. More importantly, HAPO showed consistent and less bias given varying density and irregularity of time series. Second, we evaluated methods using multi-year time series. HAPO was a better predictor of relatively short time series (< 4 years) with steady low RMSD values. When a longer time series ( 4 years) was used, all four methods showed similar RMSD values, but HAPO outperformed the other methods if there were temporal gaps. Therefore, for places with large seasonal observation gaps or for time series that are relatively short (less than 4 years), HAPO can provide more consistent and accurate results in harmonic analysis of time series.

ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing

Detection and characterization of coastal tidal wetland change in the northeastern US using Landsat time series

Coastal tidal wetlands are highly altered ecosystems exposed to substantial risk due to widespread and frequent land-use change coupled with sea-level rise, leading to disrupted hydrologic and ecologic functions and ultimately, significant reduction in climate resiliency. Knowing where and when the changes have occurred, and the nature of those changes, is important for coastal communities and natural resource management . Large-scale mapping of coastal tidal wetland changes is extremely difficult due to their inherent dynamic nature. To bridge this gap, we developed an automated algorithm for DEtection and Characterization of cOastal tiDal wEtlands change (DECODE) using dense Landsat time series. DECODE consists of three elements, including spectral break detection, land cover classification and change characterization. DECODE assembles all available Landsat observations and introduces a water level regressor for each pixel to flag the spectral breaks and estimate harmonic time-series models for the divided temporal segments. Each temporal segment is classified (e.g., vegetated wetlands, open water, and others – including unvegetated areas and uplands) based on the phenological characteristics and the synthetic surface reflectance values calculated from the harmonic model coefficients, as well as a generic rule-based classification system. This harmonic model-based approach has the advantage of not needing the acquisition of satellite images at optimal conditions (i.e., low tide status) to avoid underestimating coastal vegetation caused by the tidal fluctuation. At the same time, DECODE can also characterize different kinds of changes including land cover change and condition change (i.e., land cover modification without conversion). We used DECODE to track status of coastal tidal wetlands in the northeastern United States from 1986 to 2020. The overall accuracy of land cover classification and change detection is approximately 95.8% and 99.8%, respectively. The vegetated wetlands and open water were mapped with user's accuracy of 94.6% and 99.0%, and producer's accuracy of 98.1% and 93.5%, respectively. The cover change and condition change were mapped with user's accuracy of 68.0% and 80.0%, and producer's accuracy of 80.5% and 97.1%, respectively. Approximately 3283 km 2 of the coastal landscape within our study area in the northeastern United States changed at least once (12% of the study area), and condition changes were the dominant change type (84.3%). Vegetated coastal tidal wetland decreased consistently (~2.6 km 2 per year) in the past 35 years, largely due to conversion to open water in the context of sea-level rise.

Remote Sensing of Environment

Fifty years of Landsat science and impacts

Since 1972, the Landsat program has been continually monitoring the Earth, to now provide 50 years of digital, multispectral, medium spatial resolution observations. Over this time, Landsat data were crucial for many scientific and technical advances. Prior to the Landsat program, detailed, synoptic depictions of the Earth's surface were rare, and the ability to acquire and work with large datasets was limited. The early years of the Landsat program delivered a series of technological breakthroughs, pioneering new methods, and demonstrating the ability and capacity of digital satellite imagery, creating a template for other global Earth observation missions and programs. Innovations driven by the Landsat program have paved the way for subsequent science, application, and policy support activities. The economic and scientific value of the knowledge gained through the Landsat program has been long recognized, and despite periods of funding uncertainty, has resulted in the program's 50 years of continuity, as well as substantive and ongoing improvements to payload and mission performance. Free and open access to Landsat data, enacted in 2008, was unprecedented for medium spatial resolution Earth observation data and substantially increased usage and led to a proliferation of science and application opportunities. Here, we highlight key developments over the past 50 years of the Landsat program that have influenced and changed our scientific understanding of the Earth system. Major scientific and programmatic impacts have been realized in the areas of agricultural crop mapping and water use, climate change drivers and impacts, ecosystems and land cover monitoring, and mapping the changing human footprint. The introduction of Landsat collection processing, coupled with the free and open data policy, facilitated a transition in Landsat data usage away from single images and towards time series analyses over large areas and has fostered the widespread use of science-grade data. The launch of Landsat-9 on September 27, 2021, and the advanced planning of its successor mission, Landsat-Next, underscore the sustained institutional support for the program. Such support and commitment to continuity is recognition of both the historic impact the program, and the future potential to build upon Landsat's remarkable 50-year legacy.

Remote Sensing of Environment

Detecting subtle change from dense landsat time series: Case studies of mountain pine beetle and spruce beetle disturbance

In contrast to abrupt changes caused by land cover conversion, subtle changes driven by a shift in the condition, structure, or other biological attributes of land often lead to minimal and slower alterations of the terrestrial surface. Accurate mapping and monitoring of subtle change are crucial for an early warning of long-term gradual change that may eventually result in land cover conversion. Freely accessible moderate-resolution datasets such as the Landsat archive have great potential to characterize subtle change by capturing low-magnitude spectral changes in long-term observations. However, past studies have reported limited success in accurately extracting subtle changes from satellite-based time series analysis. In this study, we introduce a supervised framework named ‘PIDS’ to detect subtle forest disturbance from a comprehensive Landsat data archive by leveraging disturbance-based calibration sites. PIDS consists of four components: (1) Parameter optimization; (2) Index selection; (3) Dynamic stratified monitoring; and (4) Spatial consideration. PIDS was applied to map the early stage of bark beetle infestations (i.e., a lower per-pixel fraction of trees cover that show visual signs of infestation), which are a typical example of subtle change in conifer forests. Landsat Analysis Ready Data were used as the time series inputs for mapping mountain pine beetle and spruce beetle disturbance between 2001 and 2019 in Colorado, USA. PIDS-detection map assessment showed that the overall performance of PIDS (namely ‘F1 score’) was 0.86 for mountain pine beetle and 0.73 for spruce beetle, making a substantial improvement (> 0.3) compared to other approaches/products including COntinuous monitoring of Land Disturbance, LandTrendr, and the National Land Cover Database forest disturbance product. A sub-pixel analysis of tree canopy mortality percentage was performed by linking classified high-resolution (0.3- and 1-m) aerial imagery and 30-m PIDS-detection maps. Results show that PIDS typically detects mountain pine beetle infestation when ≥56% of a Landsat pixel is occupied by red-stage canopy mortality (one year after initial infestation), and spruce beetle infestation when ≥55% is occupied by gray-stage mortality (two years after initial infestation). This study addresses an important methodological goal pertinent to the utility of event-based reference samples for detecting subtle forest change, which could be potentially applied to other types of subtle land change.

Colorado

Can Landsat 7 preserve its science capability with a drifting orbit?

Since 2017, the orbit of Landsat 7 has drifted outside its nominal mission requirement toward an earlier acquisition time because of limited onboard fuel resources. This makes quantitative analyses from Landsat 7 data potentially unreliable for many scientific studies. To comprehensively understand the effect of ongoing (2018–2020) orbit drift on Landsat 7 data, we compared surface reflectance and Top-Of-Atmosphere (TOA) reflectance of growing season observations (July 1 ± 30 days) from Landsat 7 with orbit drift and Landsat 8 with nominal orbit using a total of 10,000 randomly selected Northern Hemisphere (0–75 0 N) terrestrial pixels. To evaluate the future (2021–2023) effect of Landsat 7's orbit drift, we analyzed the historical Northern Hemisphere terrestrial growing season Earth Observing-1 (EO-1) TOA reflectance images, which shared a similar orbit drift as Landsat 7 but occurred much earlier. Results suggest that Landsat 7's orbit drift has already led to a general decrease in surface reflectance and TOA reflectance in 2019 and 2020, with a limited impact (overall reflectance changes less than 0.007). The influence of orbit drift is more substantial for the two shortwave infrared (SWIR) bands and the near infrared (NIR) band, but less for the three visible bands (i.e., Red, Green, and Blue). The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), derived from either surface reflectance or TOA reflectance, increased less than 0.003 in 2020. According to the historical EO-1 TOA reflectance data, we estimate that the effect of Landsat 7's orbit drift will be much more dramatic in the future (e.g., the NIR and SWIR bands will decrease more than 0.015 since July 1, 2021), and for different land cover types, the effects of orbit drift are also quite different. To reduce this influence, we examined the c-factor Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function (BRDF) normalization approach to correct the orbit drift impact for Landsat 7 surface reflectance data collected between 2019 and 2020. We found that the c-factor BRDF can reduce the data difference substantially, but how this approach works after Landsat 7's orbit drifts further still requires more investigation. Therefore, we determined that Landsat 7 can preserve its science capability until 2020, but will be less reliable for remote sensing applications that need accurate absolute radiometric values after 2020. Correction methods such as c-factor BRDF could be a potential viable approach to maintain its science capability going forward.

Science of Remote Sensing

Lessons learned implementing an operational continuous United States national land change monitoring capability: The Land Change Monitoring, Assessment, and Projection (LCMAP) approach

Growing demands for temporally specific information on land surface change are fueling a new generation of maps and statistics that can contribute to understanding geographic and temporal patterns of change across large regions, provide input into a wide range of environmental modeling studies, clarify the drivers of change, and provide more timely information for land managers. To meet these needs, the U.S. Geological Survey has implemented a capability to monitor land surface change called the Land Change Monitoring, Assessment, and Projection (LCMAP) initiative. This paper describes the methodological foundations and lessons learned during development and testing of the LCMAP approach. Testing and evaluation of a suite of 10 annual land cover and land surface change data sets over six diverse study areas across the United States revealed good agreement with other published maps (overall agreement ranged from 73% to 87%) as well as several challenges that needed to be addressed to meet the goals of robust, repeatable, and geographically consistent monitoring results from the Continuous Change Detection and Classification (CCDC) algorithm. First, the high spatial and temporal variability of observational frequency led to differences in the number of changes identified, so CCDC was modified such that change detection is dependent on observational frequency. Second, the CCDC classification methodology was modified to improve its ability to characterize gradual land surface changes. Third, modifications were made to the classification element of CCDC to improve the representativeness of training data, which necessitated replacing the random forest algorithm with a boosted decision tree. Following these modifications, assessment of prototype Version 1 LCMAP results showed improvements in overall agreement (ranging from 85% to 90%).

Remote Sensing of Environment