Geology topics

William L. Kendall

Publications and source records attributed to William L. Kendall.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Listening for extinction: Range-wide occupancy highlights critical risks and priorities for northern spotted owls

The northern spotted owl ( Strix occidentalis caurina ) continues to decline across its range, threatened by habitat disturbances and invasive barred owls ( Strix varia ). We conducted a range-wide spotted owl occupancy assessment using 2.1 million h of passive acoustic recordings from 4081 survey stations within 1027 randomly selected 5-km 2 hexagons across six physiographic regions. Applying multistate occupancy models, we estimated probabilities of landscape use (by at least one northern spotted owl) and pair occupancy (occupied by both a male and a female), while accounting for imperfect and sex-biased detection probability. Detection probability of pairs was low in most regions, primarily due to undetected females, but increased with survey effort. If management decisions can only be made when there is a high probability of detecting both sexes when they are present, then longer surveys are one approach to support the decisions. Landscape use and pair occupancy were positively associated with old-growth forest structure and topographic diversity. We also found a pronounced latitudinal gradient in spotted owl landscape use rates with estimated mean landscape use of 0.17 (SE = 0.03) and 0.16 (SE = 0.02) in the two most northern regions, and 0.54 (SE = 0.04) and 0.52 (SE = 0.05) in the two most southern regions. Pair occupancy rates were higher in southern regions (0.29, SE = 0.03, 0.43, SE = 0.05) and very low in northern regions (0.04, SE = 0.01, 0.03, SE = 0.01). In contrast to spotted owls, barred owls were detected in 90% of northern hexagons and 50% of southern hexagons, and barred owl calling intensity was over eight times higher than spotted owls. These results highlight extinction risks in several regions and suggest that management actions, such as spatially targeted barred owl control and protection of structurally complex habitats, have a narrow temporal window in which they can be effective in lowering the probability of regional extirpations. We generated predictive maps of landscape use and pair occupancy, which could help guide regional conservation strategies. This study demonstrates how passive acoustic monitoring and machine learning can be used for broad-scale ecological monitoring, identifying extinction risk thresholds, supporting adaptive management, and improving conservation outcomes for wide-ranging and elusive species that can reliably be detected through unique vocalizations.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2026

Accounting for emigration reveals high survival and bimodal size at departure from a loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) foraging area

The life history of hard-shelled sea turtles includes several ontogenetic shifts in habitat use and these complex permanent emigration patterns can impact estimates of stage-specific population rates, including survival. We developed several multistate mark recapture models to estimate survival of adult and juvenile loggerhead turtles from a coastal bay in the northern Gulf of America (also commonly referred to as the Gulf of Mexico) while, in some cases, accounting for permanent emigration and transient individuals. Our mark-recapture dataset consisted of 228 individual turtles with 37 total recaptures from 2011 to 2024. Of the models we fit, those that incorporated emigration produced higher estimates for annual survival than models that did not, and higher estimates than what is commonly seen in the literature for loggerheads. All models suggested a major permanent emigration pulse at the typical size of sexual maturity (70 cm straight carapace length) and another major pulse at > 90 cm. This bimodal pattern of departure may reflect differences in size at sexual maturity among loggerheads, possible genetic variability within the assemblage, or both. To assess the models’ ability to effectively recover true parameter values, we developed a simulation study of 50 randomly generated independent data sets under our specified models of similar sample size to our study dataset. Simulation results suggested that models that accounted for permanent emigration and transient individuals produced relatively unbiased estimates of survival, while models that did not often underestimated survival rates. Mark-recapture studies that may exhibit emigration and suffer from low recapture rates would benefit from auxiliary data collection such as acoustic telemetry detections to better estimate true rates of emigration and survival. Obtaining unbiased estimates of true survival by accounting for processes like emigration can support effective conservation of endangered long-lived species like loggerheads.

Florida↗

USGS2026

Activity, but not size of Black-tailed Praire Dog colonies, is associated with higher Athene cunicularia hypugaea (Western Burrowing Owl) occupancy and reproductive success in the shortgrass prairie

Conservation in fragmented ecosystems, such as grasslands, has historically put more value on larger habitat patches but recent research suggests that small, high-quality habitat patches hold important conservation value. In many grassland systems, Athene cunicularia hypugaea (Western Burrowing Owl) relies on habitat patches created by Cynomys ludovicianus (Black-tailed Prairie Dog; hereafter prairie dog). Prairie dogs create important nesting habitat for A. c. hypugaea and other grassland birds. We examined the effect of size and characteristics of prairie dog colonies on A. c. hypugaea occupancy and reproductive success. We specifically looked at how colony size, prairie dog activity level, and vegetation characteristics influence these population parameters on 175 survey plots throughout eastern Colorado, U.S., across two sample years. Results are based on detections of adult and owlet A. c. hypugaea collected by paired observers traversing transects through study plots during the 2022 and 2023 A. c. hypugaea nesting seasons (May–August). Our top multistate occupancy model indicated that latitude affects A. c. hypugaea occupancy probabilities. Occupancy was higher in southern Colorado compared to northern Colorado. In addition, prairie dog activity was positively associated with A. c. hypugaea reproductive success. Colony size and vegetation characteristics were generally uninformative predictors of A. c. hypugaea occupancy and reproductive success. We compared our results to a previous A. c. hypugaea population assessment conducted within our study area in 2005 and found that active prairie dog colonies positively affected A. c. hypugaea local colonization while local extinction was driven by a transition of active prairie dog colonies to inactive. This study highlights the importance of high-quality prairie dog habitat patches for A. c. hypugaea nesting in fragmented grassland ecosystems, regardless of patch size.

Colorado↗

USGS2025

Habitat selection by Rocky Mountain Population greater Sandhill Cranes (Antigone canadensis tabida) during spring and autumn migration at a key stopover area

The San Luis Valley (SLV), Colorado is a critical stopover area for Rocky Mountain Population greater Sandhill Cranes ( Antigone canadensis tabida ). During spring and autumn, cranes use crops for foraging and water resources adjacent to foraging areas for roosting and loafing. However, surface water is becoming increasingly limited in the SLV. Understanding the factors that affect use by roosting, loafing, and foraging cranes and where habitat is the most limiting will inform water and habitat management under changing conditions. We used mixed-effects models to determine the effects of habitat variables, ownership, and landcover type on the selection of roosting, loafing, and foraging areas by cranes marked with GPS transmitters (2015–2021). We found that Sandhill Cranes selected for areas with a high amount of water, relatively short vegetation (< 5 m in autumn, < 10 m in spring), close to grain fields (< 5 km), and areas identified as open water for roosting. Loafing Sandhill Cranes also selected for areas with short vegetation and close to grain fields but that had less water and more sandbar and were identified as pastures or wetlands. Although selection was higher for private land overall, we found evidence of avoidance of private lands and a stronger preference for public lands with increasing surface water for roosting in spring. For foraging areas, selection was highest for barley in both seasons, but triticale and other grains had relatively high selection in autumn. Our research confirms the importance of providing roosting and loafing areas on both private and public lands close to foraging areas and provides evidence that roosting and loafing opportunities may be most limited on public lands in the SLV.

Colorado↗

USGS2025

Factors associated with survival, recovery, and movements in the western Gulf Coast population of mottled ducks

The mottled duck ( Anas fulvigula ) is nonmigratory and a priority species for regional conservation and management because of its limited range and declining population trajectory in the western Gulf Coast (WGC) of Louisiana and Texas, USA. We developed multistate dead-recovery models for banding and recovery data (1997–2020) to evaluate potential drivers of survival, recovery, and post-summer movements for the WGC population of mottled ducks in Louisiana and Texas. Annual survival was most strongly associated with sex and year, with females having lower survival ( ± = 0.544 ± 0.114) than males (0.619 ± 0.062). Of the 32 environmental covariates tested, fall precipitation was the factor most strongly associated with survival. Conditional recovery probability (i.e., given mortality, the probability a bird had been shot by a hunter, retrieved, and had their band number reported) varied by sex, age, geographic state, and year, with juvenile males generally having highest conditional recovery (0.303 ± 0.072), followed by juvenile females (0.201 ± 0.100), adult males (0.156 ± 0.038), and adult females (0.095 ± 0.057). Estimates of harvest probabilities followed similar patterns as conditional recovery. Models containing effects of harvest regulations on conditional recovery were not competitive compared to models with general year effects; however, post hoc analyses suggested conditional recovery and harvest probabilities for adult and juvenile females decreased with the daily bag limit reduction in Louisiana and, for juvenile females, implementation of the 5-day closure regulation in Texas. Post-summer movement was substantially higher in the direction of Texas to Louisiana, decreased with distance to the Louisiana–Texas border, was higher for males than females, and varied with winter precipitation. These results contribute to a better understanding of the factors influencing demographic performance, harvest, and movement between states with differing harvest regulations and environmental pressures, which is important for mottled duck conservation planning. Wildlife managers can consider expanding banding effort throughout the full range of the WGC population and collecting and reporting live-recapture data to allow for stronger population-level inferences and increased power to detect differences in important demographic parameters at more refined spatial scales.

Louisiana, Texas↗

USGS2025

Antigone canadensis (Sandhill Crane) foraging patterns influenced by crop type, roost distance, and tillage intensity during spring and autumn migration at a primary stopover area

The San Luis Valley in Colorado, USA, an agriculturally dominated stopover area, is used by the Rocky Mountain population of Antigone canadensis tabida (Greater Sandhill Crane) and some midcontinental individuals of A. c. canadensis (Lesser Sandhill Crane) during migration. While the numbers of both subspecies are stable, the effects of continued water scarcity and declines in grain output on the energetics of cranes in the San Luis Valley are unclear. We conducted roadside counts of A. c. tabida and A. c. canadensis on agricultural fields to determine the effects of crop type, roost distance, and tillage intensity on their selection and abundance on crop fields. Antigone canadensis varied in their use of the San Luis Valley for foraging. In autumn, both subspecies selected barley and other grains over other crop types. In spring, cranes preferred to forage in barley fields, and selection declined as distance to roosts increased. Both subspecies also selected barley fields that were lightly or not tilled. We modeled covariates on abundance for A. c. tabida only and found that more cranes were found close to roosts early in the season in autumn. As the season progressed, the number of A. c. tabida increased as roost distance increased. In spring, abundance was influenced by an interaction between time and crop, with the highest numbers found on barley and pasture around mid-March. Our results suggest that A. canadensis may switch to other crop types as resources are depleted near roosts but appear to prefer to fly farther for grains. Grains that are left idle or moderately tilled and are located near roosts will help ensure A. canadensis are able to maintain adequate nutrient reserves at agriculturally dominated stopover areas during migration.

Colorado↗

USGS2025

The importance of sampling design for unbiased estimation of survival using joint live-recapture and live resight models

Survival is a key life history parameter that can inform management decisions and basic life history research. Because true survival is often confounded with emigration from the study area, many studies are forced to estimate apparent survival (i.e., probability of surviving and remaining inside the study area), which can be much lower than true survival for highly mobile species. One method for estimating true survival is the Barker joint live-recapture/live-resight (JLRLR) model, which combines capture data from a study area (hereafter the ‘capture site’) with resighting data from a broader geographic area. This model assumes that live resights occur throughout the entire area where animals can disperse to and this assumption is often not met in practice. Here we use simulation to evaluate survival bias from a JLRLR model under study design scenarios that differ in the site selection for resights: global, random, fixed including the capture site, and fixed excluding the capture site. Simulation results indicate that fixed designs that included the capture site showed negative survival bias, whereas fixed designs that excluded the capture site exhibited positive survival bias. The magnitude of the bias was dependent on movement and survival, where scenarios with high survival and frequent movement had minimal bias. In an effort to help minimize bias, we developed a multistate version of the JLRLR and demonstrated reductions in survival bias compared to the single-state version for most designs. Our results suggest minimizing bias can be accomplished by: 1) using a random resight design when feasible if global sampling is not possible, 2) using the multistate JLRLR model when appropriate, 3) including the capture site in the resight sampling frame when possible, and 4) reporting survival as apparent survival if fixed sites are used for resight with the single state JLRLR model.

Peer Community Journal↗

USGS2024

Effects of release strategy, source population, and age on reintroduced scaled quail reproduction

Translocation is one strategy to reestablish populations of scaled quail ( Callipepla squamata ). Initial reproductive success post-translocation is important for establishing short-lived species such as quail, but factors influencing reproductive success are poorly understood. We evaluated the effect of source population and variation in delayed release strategy (1−9 weeks) on nest initiation and nest survival of wild-caught, translocated scaled quail. We trapped and translocated scaled quail in 2016–2017 from source populations in the Edwards Plateau and Rolling Plains ecoregions of Texas, USA, to a large contiguous (>40,000 ha) release site in Knox County, Texas. We used a multi-state mark-recapture model with state uncertainty to test for effects of release treatment, source population, age, release location, and year on nest initiation and survival. Increased length of holding time decreased re-nesting effort. Yearlings were more likely to initiate nests than adults and the probability of re-nesting was lower during the year with drought conditions. There was no effect of source population on any of the parameters we evaluated. Future scaled quail reintroduction efforts may benefit from prioritizing translocation of yearlings and conducting translocations when drought conditions are not forecasted.

Texas↗

USGS2024

Marine heatwaves affect breeding, diet and population size but not body condition of a range-edge little penguin colony

Significant marine heatwaves (MHWs) developed along the Western Australian coast in 1999 and 2011. Despite ecosystem losses and the southwards occurrence of many tropical fish species during and after the extreme MHW in 2011, there have been few studies on the effects of this MHW on seabirds, and no biological impacts related to the 1999 MHW have been reported. Using data from 1986-2019, we investigated the impacts of these events on breeding outcomes, body condition, diet composition, population size and mortality of little penguins on Penguin Island, in the temperate waters off Western Australia. Breeding outcomes were negatively impacted by the MHWs but body condition was not. Diet composition changed after the MHW, with sandy sprat Hyperlophus vittatus , the penguins’ typical major prey component, replaced by scaly mackerel Sardinella lemuru , a tropical fish species. Using an open robust design analysis that accounts for imperfect capture probabilities and staggered annual arrival and departure dates, we found that the population decreased by 80% following the 2011 MHW. Finally, more penguins died from starvation or from novel protozoal parasitic infections in 2011 and 2012 that were potentially introduced with the changed diet. This research highlights that the temporal and spatial influence of MHWs on seabirds depends on several factors. Furthermore, the magnitude and direction of a prey species’ response can be very localised and have significant impacts on avian predators. There are no obvious ways to mediate climate effects, but perhaps measures taken to reduce any synergistic impacts on prey abundance, particularly during MHW events, could be effective.

Penguin Island↗

USGS2024

Time of year and weather influence departure decisions of sandhill cranes at a primary stopover

The Rocky Mountain Population (RMP) of greater sandhill cranes uses a key stopover area, the San Luis Valley (SLV) in Colorado. Parameters of migration phenology can differ between autumn and spring and are affected by weather and environmental factors. We hypothesized that sandhill cranes in the SLV would have a longer stopover duration in autumn than in spring, and that wind assistance, crosswinds, temperature change, barometric air pressure, and surface water area would influence persistence probability. We used data from sandhill cranes fitted with transmitters that spanned autumn and spring, 2015-2022. We used an open robust design mark-recapture model to estimate stopover duration, arrival probability, and persistence probability. We examined the effects of weather and surface water on the persistence probability for 106 sandhill cranes in the SLV. Stopover duration was longer in autumn than in spring and had higher variability across years. Arrival probability to the SLV peaked on 13 October in autumn and 21 February in spring. Persistence probability declined around mid-December in autumn and mid-March in spring. We found that several weather covariates influenced persistence in both seasons. In autumn, sandhill cranes departed the SLV with higher tailwinds, lower crosswinds, and higher surface water availability. In spring, sandhill cranes departed the SLV with lower crosswinds and higher barometric air pressure at the surface and higher wind speeds at altitudes of about 3,000 m. The effect of wind speed was stronger later in the spring. Given the lower variability of arrival and persistence probability and shorter stopover duration in spring compared to autumn, we suspect that RMP sandhill cranes are using a time-minimization strategy during spring. However, given the use of supportive winds and weather conditions ideal for soaring, RMP sandhill cranes appear to be using strategies that save energy in both seasons. Our study identifies the optimal timing of water management and surveys for RMP sandhill cranes and confirms that weather influences their persistence. Understanding differences in migration patterns between seasons and the factors that influence persistence at stopover sites will also be important for anticipating phenological impacts from climate change and land use alterations.

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2024

Estimating migration timing and abundance in partial migratory systems by integrating continuous antenna detections with physical captures

Many populations migrate between two different habitats (e.g. wintering/foraging to breeding area, mainstem–tributary, river–lake, river–ocean, river–side channel) as part of their life history. Detection technologies, such as passive integrated transponder (PIT) antennas or sonic receivers, can be placed at boundaries between habitats (e.g. near the confluence of rivers) to detect migratory movements of marked animals. Often, these detection systems have high detection probabilities and detect many individuals but are limited in their ability to make inferences about abundance because only marked individuals can be detected. Here, we introduce a mark–recapture modelling approach that uses detections from a double-array PIT antenna system to imply movement directionality from arrays and estimate migration timing. Additionally, when combined with physical captures, the model can be used to estimate abundances for both migratory and non-migratory groups and help quantify partial migration. We first test our approach using simulation, and results indicate our approach displayed negligible bias for total abundance (less than ±1%) and slight biases for state-specific abundance estimates (±1%–6%). We fit our model to array detections and physical captures of three native fishes (humpback chub [ Gila cypha ], flannelmouth sucker [ Catostomus latipinnis ] and bluehead sucker [ Catostomus discobolus ]) in the Little Colorado River (LCR) in Grand Canyon, AZ, a system that exhibits partial migration (i.e. includes residents and migrants). Abundance estimates from our model confirm that, for all three species, migratory individuals are much more numerous than residents. There was little difference in movement timing between 2021 (a year without preceding winter/spring floods) and 2022 (a year with a small flood occurring in early April). In both years, flannelmouth sucker arrived in mid-March whereas humpback chub and bluehead sucker arrivals occurred early- to mid-April. With humpback chub and flannelmouth sucker, movement timing was influenced by body size so that large individuals were more likely to arrive early compared to smaller individuals. With more years of data, this model framework could be used to evaluate ecological questions pertaining to flow cues and movement timing or intensity, relative trends in migrants versus residents and ecological drivers of skipped spawning.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗

USGS2023

Longer holding times decrease dispersal but increase mortality of translocated scaled quail

Scaled quail ( Callipepla squamata ) decline caused by habitat loss and fragmentation increased interest in translocation to reestablish populations. Yet factors determining translocation success are poorly understood. We tested hypotheses concerning the influence of source population and variation in delayed release strategy (1–9 weeks) on mortality and dispersal of wild-caught, translocated scaled quail. We trapped and translocated quail from 2016–2017 from source populations in the Edwards Plateau and Rolling Plains ecoregions to a large contiguous (>40,000 ha) release site in Knox County, Texas, USA. We evaluated mortality and dispersal of translocated females as a function of source population, holding time prior to release, age, release location, and year using a multi-state mark-recapture model with state uncertainty. Scaled quail translocated within the Rolling Plains were more likely to exhibit philopatry to the release site. Quail with longer holding times had higher mortality but lower dispersal rates. The Edwards Plateau is a suitable source site for translocation in the Rolling Plains. The reduced dispersal but higher mortality of translocated scaled quail associated with longer holding times creates a decision tradeoff for managers.

Texas↗

USGS2023

Tourism-supported working lands sustain a growing jaguar population in the Colombian Llanos

Understanding large carnivore demography on human-dominated lands is a priority to inform conservation strategies, yet few studies examine long-term trends. Jaguars ( Panthera onca ) are one such species whose population trends and survival rates remain unknown across working lands. We integrated nine years of camera trap data and tourist photos to estimate jaguar density, survival, abundance, and probability of tourist sightings on a working ranch and tourism destination in Colombia. We found that abundance increased from five individuals in 2014 to 28 in 2022, and density increased from 1.88 ± 0.87 per 100 km 2 in 2014 to 3.80 ± 1.08 jaguars per 100 km 2 in 2022. The probability of a tourist viewing a jaguar increased from 0% in 2014 to 40% in 2020 before the Covid-19 pandemic. Our results are the first robust estimates of jaguar survival and abundance on working lands. Our findings highlight the importance of productive lands for jaguar conservation and suggest that a tourism destination and working ranch can host an abundant population of jaguars when accompanied by conservation agreements and conflict interventions. Our analytical model that combines conventional data collection with tourist sightings can be applied to other species that are observed during tourism activities.

Scientific Reports↗

USGS2023

Estimating northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina) pair detection probabilities based on call-back surveys associated with long-term mark-recapture studies, 1993–2018

The northern spotted owl ( Strix occidentalis caurina ; hereinafter NSO) was listed as “threatened” under the Endangered Species Act in 1990 and population declines have continued since that listing. Given the species’ protected status, any proposed activities on Federal lands that might impact NSO require consultation with U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and part of that consultation often includes surveys to determine presence and occupancy status of the species in the proposed activity area. The objective of this report is to present study-area specific estimates of the probability of detection for NSO pairs from twelve 2-week seasonal survey periods using data from a recent range-wide meta-analysis. These estimates were a by-product of pair occupancy modeling but might provide insight into potential changes in the effect of the invasive barred owl on NSO detection rates. We used two-species multi-season occupancy models to estimate the probability of detection for NSOs on each of 11 study areas for each 2-week survey period and relative to the range-wide effect of barred owl presence or absence. Detection probabilities within the season generally increased from the earliest surveys in March through mid-season, decreasing again in the late season on five study areas. For three other study areas, detection rates were highest during the earliest survey periods in late March or early April. Estimates of cumulative seasonal detection of NSO (across a maximum of six within-season surveys) were less than 0.90 when barred owls (BO) were present on all but one study area, regardless of when surveys were conducted within a season. However, despite low detection rates, the probability that a territory was occupied when an NSO pair was not detected over six within-season surveys was also very low. When BO are not present on a territory, a six-survey protocol had a high probability of detecting an NSO pair at least once during the season on all study areas, except for the very lowest per-survey estimates. Conducting most surveys earlier in the season, when the probability of detecting pairs is highest (through May on most areas) could improve seasonal detection rates. However, alternative methods of population monitoring—such as the use of passive acoustic recorders—may be needed to continue monitoring NSO for research and management.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2023

Survival rates of band-tailed pigeons estimated using passive integrated transponder tags

Obtaining survival estimates on the Interior population of band-tailed pigeons ( Patagioenas fasciata ) is challenging because they are trap shy, but the joint use of passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags and bands is a potential solution. We investigated the use of PIT tags to passively recapture band-tailed pigeon at 3 locations in New Mexico, USA, to estimate survival. From 2013–2015, we captured, banded, and marked >600 individual band-tailed pigeons with PIT tags. To estimate annual survival rates, we used a Barker multi-state joint live and dead encounters and resighting model. Survival models excluding transience had survival estimates across site, sex, and year of 0.86 (95% CI = 0.84–0.88) for after hatch year birds and 0.63 (95% CI = 0.48–0.76) for hatch year birds. These results are consistent with other survival estimates reported for the Interior population of band-tailed pigeons using band return data and potentially provide an effective alternative method of monitoring survival of this population.

New Mexico↗

USGS2022

Range-wide sources of variation in reproductive rates of northern spotted owls

We conducted a range-wide investigation of the dynamics of site level reproductive rate of northern spotted owls using survey data from 11 study areas across the sub-species geographic range collected during 1993–2018. Our analytical approach accounted for imperfect detection of owl pairs and misclassification of successful reproduction (i.e., at least one young fledged) and contributed further insights into northern spotted owl population ecology and dynamics. Both nondetection and state misclassification were important, especially because factors affecting these sources of error also affected focal ecological parameters. Annual probabilities of site occupancy were greatest at sites with successful reproduction in the previous year and lowest for sites not occupied by a pair in the previous year. Site-specific occupancy transition probabilities declined over time and were negatively affected by barred owl presence. Overall, the site-specific probability of successful reproduction showed substantial year-to-year fluctuations and was similar for occupied sites that did and did not experience successful reproduction the previous year. Site-specific probabilities for successful reproduction were very small for sites that were unoccupied the previous year. Barred owl presence negatively affected the probability of successful reproduction by northern spotted owls in Washington and California, as predicted, but the effect in Oregon was mixed. The proportions of sites occupied by northern spotted owl pairs showed steep, near-monotonic declines over the study period, with all study areas showing the lowest observed levels of occupancy to date. If trends continue it is likely that northern spotted owls will become extirpated throughout large portions of their range in the coming decades.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2022

NABat ML: Utilizing deep learning to enable crowdsourced development of automated, scalable solutions for documenting North American bat populations

Bats play crucial ecological roles and provide valuable ecosystem services, yet many populations face serious threats from various ecological disturbances. The North American Bat Monitoring Program (NABat) aims to use its technology infrastructure to assess status and trends of bat populations, while developing innovative and community-driven conservation solutions. Here, we present NABat ML , an automated machine-learning algorithm that improves the scalability and scientific transparency of NABat acoustic monitoring. This model combines signal processing techniques and convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to detect and classify recorded bat echolocation calls. We developed our CNN model with internet-based computing resources (‘cloud environment’), and trained it on >600,000 spectrogram images. We also incorporated species range maps to improve the robustness and accuracy of the model for future ‘unseen’ data. We evaluated model performance using a comprehensive, independent, holdout dataset. NABat ML successfully distinguished 31 classes (30 species and a noise class) with overall weighted-average accuracy and precision rates of 92%, and ≥90% classification accuracy for 19 of the bat species. Using a single cloud-environment computing instance, the entire model training process took <16 h. Synthesis and applications . Our convolutional neural network (CNN)-based model, NABat ML , classifies 30 North American bat species using their recorded echolocation calls with an overall accuracy of 92%. In addition to providing highly accurate species-level classification, NABat ML and its outputs are compatible with Bayesian and other statistical techniques for measuring uncertainty in classification. Our model is open-source and reproducible, enabling future implementations as software on end-user devices and cloud-based web applications. These qualities make NABat ML highly suitable for applications ranging from grassroots community science initiatives to big-data methods developed and implemented by researchers and professional practitioners. We believe the transparency and accessibility of NABat ML will encourage broad-scale participation in bat monitoring, and enable development of innovative solutions needed to conserve North American bat species.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2022

Optimizing management of invasions in an uncertain world using dynamic spatial models

Dispersal drives invasion dynamics of nonnative species and pathogens. Applying knowledge of dispersal to optimize the management of invasions can mean the difference between a failed and a successful control program and dramatically improve the return on investment of control efforts. A common approach to identifying optimal management solutions for invasions is to optimize dynamic spatial models that incorporate dispersal. Optimizing these spatial models can be very challenging because the interaction of time, space, and uncertainty rapidly amplifies the number of dimensions being considered. Addressing such problems requires advances in and the integration of techniques from multiple fields, including ecology, decision analysis, bioeconomics, natural resource management, and optimization. By synthesizing recent advances from these diverse fields, we provide a workflow for applying ecological theory to advance optimal management science and highlight priorities for optimizing the control of invasions. One of the striking gaps we identify is the extremely limited consideration of dispersal uncertainty in optimal management frameworks, even though dispersal estimates are highly uncertain and greatly influence invasion outcomes. In addition, optimization frameworks rarely consider multiple types of uncertainty (we describe five major types) and their interrelationships. Thus, feedbacks from management or other sources that could magnify uncertainty in dispersal are rarely considered. Incorporating uncertainty is crucial for improving transparency in decision risks and identifying optimal management strategies. We discuss gaps and solutions to the challenges of optimization using dynamic spatial models to increase the practical application of these important tools and improve the consistency and robustness of management recommendations for invasions.

Ecological Applications↗