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William L. Ellsworth

Publications and source records attributed to William L. Ellsworth.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Hydraulic fracturing induced seismicity

Hydraulic fracturing (HF) is a technique that is used for extracting petroleum resources from impermeable host rocks. In this process, fluid injected under high pressure causes fractures to propagate. This technique has been transformative for the hydrocarbon industry, unlocking otherwise stranded resources; however, environmental concerns make HF controversial. One concern is HF‐induced seismicity, since fluids driven under high pressure also have the potential to reactivate faults. Controversy has inevitably followed these HF‐induced earthquakes, with economic and human losses from ground shaking at one extreme and moratoriums on resource development at the other. Here, we review the state of knowledge of this category of induced seismicity. We first cover essential background information on HF along with an overview of published induced earthquake cases to date. Expanding on this, we synthesize the common themes and interpret the origin of these commonalities, which include recurrent earthquake swarms, proximity to well bore, rapid response to stimulation, and a paucity of reported cases. Next, we discuss the unanswered questions that naturally arise from these commonalities, leading to potential research themes: consistent recognition of cases, proposed triggering mechanisms, geologically susceptible conditions, identification of operational controls, effective mitigation efforts, and science‐informed regulatory management. HF‐induced seismicity provides a unique opportunity to better understand and manage earthquake rupture processes; overall, understanding HF‐induced earthquakes is important in order to avoid extreme reactions in either direction.

Reviews of Geophysics

Injection-induced earthquakes

Earthquakes in unusual locations have become an important topic of discussion in both North America and Europe, owing to the concern that industrial activity could cause damaging earthquakes. It has long been understood that earthquakes can be induced by impoundment of reservoirs, surface and underground mining, withdrawal of fluids and gas from the subsurface, and injection of fluids into underground formations. Injection-induced earthquakes have, in particular, become a focus of discussion as the application of hydraulic fracturing to tight shale formations is enabling the production of oil and gas from previously unproductive formations. Earthquakes can be induced as part of the process to stimulate the production from tight shale formations, or by disposal of wastewater associated with stimulation and production. Here, I review recent seismic activity that may be associated with industrial activity, with a focus on the disposal of wastewater by injection in deep wells; assess the scientific understanding of induced earthquakes; and discuss the key scientific challenges to be met for assessing this hazard.

Science

Seismology with dark data: Image-based processing of analog records using machine learning for the rangely earthquake control experiment

Before the digital era, seismograms were recorded in analog form and read manually by analysts. The digital era represents only about 25% of the total time span of instrumental seismology. Analog data provide important constraints on earthquake processes over the long term, and in some cases are the only data available. The media on which analog data are recorded degrades with time and there is an urgent need for cost‐effective approaches to preserve the information they contain. In this study, we work directly with images by constructing a set of image‐based methods for earthquake processing, rather than pursue the usual approach of converting analog data to vector time series. We demonstrate this approach on one month of continuous Develocorder films from the Rangely earthquake control experiment run by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). We scan the films into images and compress these into low‐dimensional feature vectors as input to a classifier that separates earthquakes from noise in a defined feature space. We feed the detected event images into a short‐term average/long‐term average (STA/LTA) picker, a grid‐search associator, and a 2D image correlator to measure both absolute arrival times and relative arrival‐time differences between events. We use these measurements to locate the earthquakes using hypoDD. In the month that we studied, we identified 40 events clustered near the injection wells. In the original study, Raleigh et al. (1976) identified only 32 events during the same period. Scanning without vectorizing analog seismograms represents an attractive approach to archiving these perishable data. We demonstrated that it is possible to carry out precision seismology directly on such images. Our approach has the potential for wide application to analog seismograms.

Seismological Research Letters

The 2013–2016 induced earthquakes in Harper and Sumner Counties, southern Kansas

We examine the first four years (2013–2016) of the ongoing seismicity in southern Kansas using high‐precision locations derived from a local seismometer network. The earthquakes occur almost exclusively in the shallow crystalline basement, below the wastewater injection horizon of the Arbuckle Group at the base of the sedimentary section. Multiple lines of evidence lead us to conclude that disposal of wastewater from the production of oil and gas by deep injection is the probable cause for the surge of seismicity that began in 2013. First, the seismicity correlates in space and time with the injection. We observe increases in seismicity subsequent to increases in injection and decreases in seismicity in response to decreases in injection. Second, the earthquake‐rate change is statistically improbable to be of natural origin. From 1974 through the time of the injection increase in 2012, no M L "> M L 4 or larger earthquakes occurred in the study area, while six occurred between 2012 and 2016. The probability of this rate change occurring randomly is ∼ 0.16 % "> ∼ 0.16 % . Third, the other potential industrial drivers of seismicity (hydraulic fracturing and oil production) do not correlate in space or time with seismicity. Local geological conditions are important in determining whether injection operations will induce seismicity, as shown by absence of seismicity near the largest injection operations in the southwest portion of our study area. In addition to local operations, the presence of seismicity 10+ km from large injection wells indicates that regional injection operations also need to be considered to understand the effects of injection on seismicity.

Kansas

Determination of earthquake magnitude for early warning from the time-dependence of P-wave amplitudes

We propose a method that utilizes the time dependence of P ‐wave displacement amplitudes to estimate the final magnitude ( ⁠M⁠ ) for earthquake early warning (EEW) before the arrival of the peak amplitude. A relation between M and P ‐wave displacement amplitude is employed for the method. Its value is set as a function of time from the P arrival, and is determined using a K‐NET dataset recorded in Japan from a scaling relation between M and the time dependence of P ‐wave displacement. A test to check the performance of the proposed equation demonstrates in a statistical sense that this technique enables us to estimate M more rapidly than conventional methods without loss of accuracy. We conclude that the approach proposed in this article effectively gains a longer lead time as well as reduces the blind zone for EEW.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America

Geodetic slip model of the 3 September 2016 Mw 5.8 Pawnee, Oklahoma, earthquake: Evidence for fault‐zone collapse

The 3 September 2016 M w 5.8 Pawnee earthquake in northern Oklahoma is the largest earthquake ever recorded in Oklahoma. The coseismic deformation was measured with both Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar and Global Positioning System (GPS), with measureable signals of order 1 cm and 1 mm, respectively. We derive a coseismic slip model from Sentinel‐1A and Radarsat 2 interferograms and GPS static offsets, dominated by distributed left‐lateral strike slip on a primary west‐northwest–east‐southeast‐trending subvertical plane, whereas strike slip is concentrated near the hypocenter (5.6 km depth), with maximum slip of ∼1 m located slightly east and down‐dip of the hypocenter. Based on systematic misfits of observed interferogram line‐of‐sight (LoS) displacements, with LoS based on shear‐dislocation models, a few decimeters of fault‐zone collapse are inferred in the hypocentral region where coseismic slip was the largest. This may represent the postseismic migration of large volumes of fluid away from the high‐slip areas, made possible by the creation of a temporary high‐permeability damage zone around the fault.

Oklahoma

2017 One‐year seismic‐hazard forecast for the central and eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes

We produce a one‐year 2017 seismic‐hazard forecast for the central and eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes that updates the 2016 one‐year forecast; this map is intended to provide information to the public and to facilitate the development of induced seismicity forecasting models, methods, and data. The 2017 hazard model applies the same methodology and input logic tree as the 2016 forecast, but with an updated earthquake catalog. We also evaluate the 2016 seismic‐hazard forecast to improve future assessments. The 2016 forecast indicated high seismic hazard (greater than 1% probability of potentially damaging ground shaking in one year) in five focus areas: Oklahoma–Kansas, the Raton basin (Colorado/New Mexico border), north Texas, north Arkansas, and the New Madrid Seismic Zone. During 2016, several damaging induced earthquakes occurred in Oklahoma within the highest hazard region of the 2016 forecast; all of the 21 moment magnitude ( M ) ≥4 and 3 M ≥5 earthquakes occurred within the highest hazard area in the 2016 forecast. Outside the Oklahoma–Kansas focus area, two earthquakes with M ≥4 occurred near Trinidad, Colorado (in the Raton basin focus area), but no earthquakes with M ≥2.7 were observed in the north Texas or north Arkansas focus areas. Several observations of damaging ground‐shaking levels were also recorded in the highest hazard region of Oklahoma. The 2017 forecasted seismic rates are lower in regions of induced activity due to lower rates of earthquakes in 2016 compared with 2015, which may be related to decreased wastewater injection caused by regulatory actions or by a decrease in unconventional oil and gas production. Nevertheless, the 2017 forecasted hazard is still significantly elevated in Oklahoma compared to the hazard calculated from seismicity before 2009.

Seismological Research Letters

A new strategy for earthquake focal mechanisms using waveform-correlation-derived relative polarities and cluster analysis: Application to the 2014 Long Valley Caldera earthquake swarm

In microseismicity analyses, reliable focal mechanisms can typically be obtained for only a small subset of located events. We address this limitation here, presenting a framework for determining robust focal mechanisms for entire populations of very small events. To achieve this, we resolve relative P and S wave polarities between pairs of waveforms by using their signed correlation coefficients—a by-product of previously performed precise earthquake relocation. We then use cluster analysis to group events with similar patterns of polarities across the network. Finally, we apply a standard mechanism inversion to the grouped data, using either catalog or correlation-derived P wave polarity data sets. This approach has great potential for enhancing analyses of spatially concentrated microseismicity such as earthquake swarms, mainshock-aftershock sequences, and industrial reservoir stimulation or injection-induced seismic sequences. To demonstrate its utility, we apply this technique to the 2014 Long Valley Caldera earthquake swarm. In our analysis, 85% of the events (7212 out of 8494 located by Shelly et al . [2016]) fall within five well-constrained mechanism clusters, more than 12 times the number with network-determined mechanisms. Of the earthquakes we characterize, 3023 (42%) have magnitudes smaller than 0.0. We find that mechanism variations are strongly associated with corresponding hypocentral structure, yet mechanism heterogeneity also occurs where it cannot be resolved by hypocentral patterns, often confined to small-magnitude events. Small (5–20°) rotations between mechanism orientations and earthquake location trends persist when we apply 3-D velocity models and might reflect a geometry of en echelon, interlinked shear, and dilational faulting.

California

Scaling relation between earthquake magnitude and the departure time from P wave similar growth

We introduce a new scaling relation between earthquake magnitude ( M ) and a characteristic of initial P wave displacement. By examining Japanese K-NET data averaged in bins partitioned by M w and hypocentral distance, we demonstrate that the P wave displacement briefly displays similar growth at the onset of rupture and that the departure time ( T dp ), which is defined as the time of departure from similarity of the absolute displacement after applying a band-pass filter, correlates with the final M in a range of 4.5 ≤ M w ≤ 7. The scaling relation between M w and T dp implies that useful information on the final M can be derived while the event is still in progress because T dp occurs before the completion of rupture. We conclude that the scaling relation is important not only for earthquake early warning but also for the source physics of earthquakes.

Geophysical Research Letters

Seismic‐hazard forecast for 2016 including induced and natural earthquakes in the central and eastern United States

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has produced a one‐year (2016) probabilistic seismic‐hazard assessment for the central and eastern United States (CEUS) that includes contributions from both induced and natural earthquakes that are constructed with probabilistic methods using alternative data and inputs. This hazard assessment builds on our 2016 final model ( Petersen et al. , 2016 ) by adding sensitivity studies, illustrating hazard in new ways, incorporating new population data, and discussing potential improvements. The model considers short‐term seismic activity rates (primarily 2014–2015) and assumes that the activity rates will remain stationary over short time intervals. The final model considers different ways of categorizing induced and natural earthquakes by incorporating two equally weighted earthquake rate submodels that are composed of alternative earthquake inputs for catalog duration, smoothing parameters, maximum magnitudes, and ground‐motion models. These alternatives represent uncertainties on how we calculate earthquake occurrence and the diversity of opinion within the science community. In this article, we also test sensitivity to the minimum moment magnitude between M 4 and M 4.7 and the choice of applying a declustered catalog with b =1.0 rather than the full catalog with b =1.3. We incorporate two earthquake rate submodels: in the informed submodel we classify earthquakes as induced or natural, and in the adaptive submodel we do not differentiate. The alternative submodel hazard maps both depict high hazard and these are combined in the final model. Results depict several ground‐shaking measures as well as intensity and include maps showing a high‐hazard level (1% probability of exceedance in 1 year or greater). Ground motions reach 0.6 g horizontal peak ground acceleration (PGA) in north‐central Oklahoma and southern Kansas, and about 0.2 g PGA in the Raton basin of Colorado and New Mexico, in central Arkansas, and in north‐central Texas near Dallas–Fort Worth. The chance of having levels of ground motions corresponding to modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) VI or greater earthquake shaking is 2%–12% per year in north‐central Oklahoma and southern Kansas and New Madrid similar to the chance of damage at sites in high‐hazard portions of California caused by natural earthquakes. Hazard is also significant in the Raton basin of Colorado/New Mexico; north‐central Arkansas; Dallas–Fort Worth, Texas; and in a few other areas. Hazard probabilities are much lower (by about half or more) for exceeding MMI VII or VIII. Hazard is 3‐ to 10‐fold higher near some areas of active‐induced earthquakes than in the 2014 USGS National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM), which did not consider induced earthquakes. This study in conjunction with the LandScan TM Database (2013) indicates that about 8 million people live in areas of active injection wells that have a greater than 1% chance of experiencing damaging ground shaking (MMI≥VI) in 2016. The final model has high uncertainty, and engineers, regulators, and industry should use these assessments cautiously to make informed decisions on mitigating the potential effects of induced and natural earthquakes.

Seismological Research Letters

2016 one-year seismic hazard forecast for the Central and Eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has produced a 1-year seismic hazard forecast for 2016 for the Central and Eastern United States (CEUS) that includes contributions from both induced and natural earthquakes. The model assumes that earthquake rates calculated from several different time windows will remain relatively stationary and can be used to forecast earthquake hazard and damage intensity for the year 2016. This assessment is the first step in developing an operational earthquake forecast for the CEUS, and the analysis could be revised with updated seismicity and model parameters. Consensus input models consider alternative earthquake catalog durations, smoothing parameters, maximum magnitudes, and ground motion estimates, and represent uncertainties in earthquake occurrence and diversity of opinion in the science community. Ground shaking seismic hazard for 1-percent probability of exceedance in 1 year reaches 0.6 g (as a fraction of standard gravity [g]) in northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas, and about 0.2 g in the Raton Basin of Colorado and New Mexico, in central Arkansas, and in north-central Texas near Dallas. Near some areas of active induced earthquakes, hazard is higher than in the 2014 USGS National Seismic Hazard Model (NHSM) by more than a factor of 3; the 2014 NHSM did not consider induced earthquakes. In some areas, previously observed induced earthquakes have stopped, so the seismic hazard reverts back to the 2014 NSHM. Increased seismic activity, whether defined as induced or natural, produces high hazard. Conversion of ground shaking to seismic intensity indicates that some places in Oklahoma, Kansas, Colorado, New Mexico, Texas, and Arkansas may experience damage if the induced seismicity continues unabated. The chance of having Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) VI or greater (damaging earthquake shaking) is 5–12 percent per year in north-central Oklahoma and southern Kansas, similar to the chance of damage caused by natural earthquakes at sites in parts of California.

Open-File Report

Fluid-faulting evolution in high definition: Connecting fault structure and frequency-magnitude variations during the 2014 Long Valley Caldera, California earthquake swarm

An extended earthquake swarm occurred beneath southeastern Long Valley Caldera between May and November 2014, culminating in three magnitude 3.5 earthquakes and 1145 cataloged events on 26 September alone. The swarm produced the most prolific seismicity in the caldera since a major unrest episode in 1997-1998. To gain insight into the physics controlling swarm evolution, we used large-scale cross-correlation between waveforms of cataloged earthquakes and continuous data, producing precise locations for 8494 events, more than 2.5 times the routine catalog. We also estimated magnitudes for 18,634 events (~5.5 times the routine catalog), using a principal component fit to measure waveform amplitudes relative to cataloged events. This expanded and relocated catalog reveals multiple episodes of pronounced hypocenter expansion and migration on a collection of neighboring faults. Given the rapid migration and alignment of hypocenters on narrow faults, we infer that activity was initiated and sustained by an evolving fluid pressure transient with a low-viscosity fluid, likely composed primarily of water and CO 2 exsolved from underlying magma. Although both updip and downdip migration were observed within the swarm, downdip activity ceased shortly after activation, while updip activity persisted for weeks at moderate levels. Strongly migrating, single-fault episodes within the larger swarm exhibited a higher proportion of larger earthquakes (lower Gutenberg-Richter b value), which may have been facilitated by fluid pressure confined in two dimensions within the fault zone. In contrast, the later swarm activity occurred on an increasingly diffuse collection of smaller faults, with a much higher b value.

California

Rapid estimation of earthquake magnitude from the arrival time of the peak high-frequency amplitude

We propose a simple approach to measure earthquake magnitude M using the time difference ( T op ) between the body‐wave onset and the arrival time of the peak high‐frequency amplitude in an accelerogram. Measured in this manner, we find that M w is proportional to 2log T op for earthquakes 5&le; M w &le;7, which is the theoretical proportionality if T op is proportional to source dimension and stress drop is scale invariant. Using high‐frequency (>2&thinsp;&thinsp;Hz) data, the root mean square (rms) residual between M w and M T op ( M estimated from T op ) is approximately 0.5 magnitude units. The rms residuals of the high‐frequency data in passbands between 2 and 16 Hz are uniformly smaller than those obtained from the lower‐frequency data. T op depends weakly on epicentral distance, and this dependence can be ignored for distances <200&thinsp;&thinsp;km. Retrospective application of this algorithm to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake produces a final magnitude estimate of M 9.0 at 120 s after the origin time. We conclude that T op of high‐frequency (>2&thinsp;&thinsp;Hz) accelerograms has value in the context of earthquake early warning for extremely large events.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America

Interpretation of S waves generated by near-surface chemical explosions at SAFOD

A series of near-surface chemical explosions conducted at the San Andreas Fault Observatory at Depth (SAFOD) were recorded by high-frequency downhole receiver arrays in separate experiments in November 2003 and May 2005. The 2003 experiment involved &sim;100&thinsp;&thinsp;kg shots detonated along a 46-km-long line (Hole&ndash;Ryberg line) centered on SAFOD and recorded by 32 three-component geophones in the pilot hole between 0.8 and 2.0 km depth. The 2005 experiment involved &sim;36&thinsp;&thinsp;kg shots detonated at Parkfield Area Seismic Observatory (PASO) stations (at &sim;1&ndash;8&thinsp;&thinsp;km offset) recorded by 80 three-component geophones in the main hole between the surface and 2.4 km depth. These data sample the downgoing seismic wavefield and constrain the shallow velocity and attenuation structure, as well as the first-order characteristics of the source. Using forward modeling on a velocity structure designed for the near field, both observed P - and S -wave energy for the PASO shots are identified with the travel times expected for direct and/or reflected phases. Larger-offset recordings from shots along the Hole&ndash;Ryberg line reveal substantial SV and SH energy, especially southwest of SAFOD from the source as indicated by P -to- S amplitude ratios. The generated SV energy is interpreted to arise chiefly from P -to- S conversions at subhorizontal discontinuities. This provides a simple mechanism for often-observed low P -to- S amplitude ratios from nuclear explosions in the far field, as originating from strong near-field wave conversions.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America

Delayed dynamic triggering of deep tremor along the Parkfield-Cholame section of the San Andreas Fault following the 2014 M6.0 South Napa earthquake

Large, distant earthquakes are known to trigger deep tectonic tremor along the San Andreas Fault and in subduction zones. However, there are relatively few observations of triggering from regional distance earthquakes. Here we show that a small tremor episode about 12–18 km NW of Parkfield was triggered during and immediately following the passage of surface waves from the 2014 M w 6.0 South Napa main shock. More notably, a major tremor episode followed, beginning about 12 h later, and centered SE of Parkfield near Cholame. This major episode is one of the largest seen over the past several years, containing intense activity for ~3 days and taking more than 3 weeks to return to background levels. This episode showed systematic along-strike migration at ~5 km/d, suggesting that it was driven by a slow-slip event. Our results suggest that moderate-size earthquakes are capable of triggering major tremor and deep slow slip at regional distances.

California

Surface monitoring of microseismicity at the Decatur, Illinois, CO2 sequestration demonstration site

Sequestration of CO2 into subsurface reservoirs can play an important role in limiting future emission of CO2 into the atmosphere (e.g., Benson and Cole, 2008). For geologic sequestration to become a viable option to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, large-volume injection of supercritical CO2 into deep sedimentary formations is required. These formations offer large pore volumes and good pore connectivity and are abundant (Bachu, 2003; U.S. Geological Survey Geologic Carbon Dioxide Storage Resources Assessment Team, 2013). However, hazards associated with injection of CO2 into deep formations require evaluation before widespread sequestration can be adopted safely (Zoback and Gorelick, 2012). One of these hazards is the potential to induce seismicity on pre-existing faults or fractures. If these faults or fractures are large and critically stressed, seismic events can occur with magnitudes large enough to pose a hazard to surface installations and, possibly more critical, the seal integrity of the cap rock. The Decatur, Illinois, carbon capture and storage (CCS) demonstration site is the first, and to date, only CCS project in the United States that injects a large volume of supercritical CO2 into a regionally extensive, undisturbed saline formation. The first phase of the Decatur CCS project was completed in November 2014 after injecting a million metric tons of supercritical CO2 over three years. This phase was led by the Illinois State Geological Survey (ISGS) and included seismic monitoring using deep borehole sensors, with a few sensors installed within the injection horizon. Although the deep borehole network provides a more comprehensive seismic catalog than is presented in this paper, these deep data are not publicly available. We contend that for monitoring induced microseismicity as a possible seismic hazard and to elucidate the general patterns of microseismicity, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) surface and shallow borehole network described below provides an adequate event detection threshold. The formation targeted for injection is the Mount Simon Sandstone, which is laterally extensive, has high porosity and permeability and has the potential to host future CCS projects due to its favorable hydrologic characteristics and proximity to industrial sources of CO2 (Birkholzer and Zhou, 2009). At Decatur, CO2, a byproduct of ethanol production at the Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) facility, is compressed to supercritical state and injected at 2.1 km depth into the 460 m thick Mount Simon Sandstone. This sandstone has varying properties, ranging from the lower, fine- to coarse-grained sandstone with high permeability and porosity, to the middle and upper Mount Simon, which consist of planar, cross-bedded layers of varied permeability and porosity (Leetaru and Freiburg, 2014). The changes in permeability and porosity within the Mount Simon Sandstone, due to depositional and diagenetic differences, create horizontal baffles, which inhibit vertical flow and restrict the injected CO2 to remain near the injection horizon (Bowen et al., 2011). The lowest portion of the Mount Simon Sandstone overlying the Precambrian rhyolite basement is the Pre-Mount Simon interval, generally < 15 m in thickness and composed of fine- to medium-grain size sandstone that is highly deformed (Leetaru and Freiburg, 2014). The basement rhyolite has a clayrich matrix and is fractured, with significant alterations within the fractures. The primary sealing cap rock is the Eau Claire Formation, a 100–150 m thick unit at a depth of roughly 1.69 km (Leetaru and Freiburg, 2014). The Maquoketa Shale Group and the New Albany Shale serve as secondary and tertiary seals at shallower depths of ∼820 and ∼650 m, respectively. The ISGS managed the Illinois Basin–Decatur Project (IBDP), a three-year project beginning in November 2011, during which carbon dioxide was injected at a rate of ∼1000 metric tons per day until November 2014 (Finley et al., 2011, 2013). ADM manages the Illinois Industrial CCS (ICCS) project, which will inject ∼3000 metric tons/day into a second injection well starting in the summer of 2015. The USGS began monitoring microseismicity with a 13- station seismic network at Decatur in July 2013 (Fig. 1). This network provides good detection capabilities and azimuthal (focal sphere) coverage for microseismicity with moment magnitudes (Mw) above about −0:5. Here, we report on 19 months of microseismicity monitoring at the Decatur CO2 sequestration site, which permits a detailed look at the evolution and character of injection-induced seismicity.

Illinois

Causal factors for seismicity near Azle, Texas

In November 2013, a series of earthquakes began along a mapped ancient fault system near Azle, Texas. Here we assess whether it is plausible that human activity caused these earthquakes. Analysis of both lake and groundwater variations near Azle shows that no significant stress changes were associated with the shallow water table before or during the earthquake sequence. In contrast, pore-pressure models demonstrate that a combination of brine production and wastewater injection near the fault generated subsurface pressures sufficient to induce earthquakes on near-critically stressed faults. On the basis of modelling results and the absence of historical earthquakes near Azle, brine production combined with wastewater disposal represent the most likely cause of recent seismicity near Azle. For assessing the earthquake cause, our research underscores the necessity of monitoring subsurface wastewater formation pressures and monitoring earthquakes having magnitudes of ∼ M2 and greater. Currently, monitoring at these levels is not standard across Texas or the United States.

Nature Communications