Geology topics

William J. Rose

Publications and source records attributed to William J. Rose.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2016

Changes in streamflow characteristics in Wisconsin as related to precipitation and land use

Streamflow characteristics were determined for 15 longterm streamflow-gaging stations for the periods 1915–2008, 1915–68, and 1969–2008 to identify trends. Stations selected represent flow characteristics for the major river basins in Wisconsin. Trends were statistically significant at the 95 percent confidence level at 13 of the 15 streamflow-gaging stations for various streamflow characteristics for 1915–2008. Most trends indicated increases in low flows for streams with agriculture as the dominant land use. The three most important findings are: increases in low flows and average flows in agricultural watersheds, decreases in flood peak discharge for many streams in both agricultural and forested watersheds, and climatic change occurred with increasing annual precipitation and changes in monthly occurrence of precipitation. When the 1915–68 period is compared to the 1969–2008 period, the annual 7-day low flow increased an average of 60 percent for nine streams in agricultural areas as compared to a 15 percent increase for the five forested streams. Average annual flow for the same periods increased 23 percent for the agriculture streams and 0.6 percent for the forested streams. The annual flood peak discharge for the same periods decreased 15 percent for agriculture streams and 8 percent for forested streams. The largest increase in the annual 7-day low flow was 117 percent, the largest increase in annual average flow was 41 percent, and the largest decrease in annual peak discharge was 51 percent. The trends in streamflow characteristics affect frequency characteristics, which are used for a variety of design and compliance purposes. The frequencies for the 1969–2008 period were compared to frequencies for the 1915–68 period. The 7-day, 10-year (Q7, 10) low flow increased 91 percent for nine agricultural streams, while the five forested streams had an increase of 18 percent. The 100-year flood peak discharge decreased an average of 15 percent for streams in the agriculture area and 27 percent for streams in the forested area. Increases in low flow for agriculture streams are attributed to changes in agricultural practices and land use as well as increased precipitation. The decrease in annual flood peak discharge with increased annual precipitation is less clear, but is attributed to increased infiltration from changes in agricultural practices and climatic changes. For future low-flow studies, the 1969–2008 period should be used to determine low-flow characteristics since it represents current (2014) conditions and was generally free of significant trends.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2012

Evaluation of the effects of Middleton's stormwater-management activities on streamflow and water-quality characteristics of Pheasant Branch, Dane County, Wisconsin 1975-2008

Few long-term data sets are available for evaluating the effects of urban stormwater-management practices. Over 30 years of data are available for evaluating the effectiveness of such practices by the city of Middleton, Wis. Analysis of streamflow and water-quality data collected on Pheasant Branch, demonstrates the relation between the changes in the watershed to the structural and nonstructural best management practices put in place during 1975-2008. A comparison of the data from Pheasant Branch with streamflow and water-quality data (suspended sediment and total phosphorus) collected at other nearby streams was made to assist in the determination of the possible causes of the changes in Pheasant Branch. Based on 34 years of streamflow data collected at the Pheasant Branch at Middleton streamflow-gaging station, flood peak discharges increased 37 percent for the 2-year flood and 83 percent for the 100-year flood. A comparison of data for the same period from an adjacent rural stream, Black Earth at Black Earth had a 43 percent increase in the 2-year flood peak discharge and a 140-percent increase in the 100-year flood peak discharge. Because the flood peak discharges on Pheasant Branch have not increased as much as Black Earth Creek it appears that the stormwater management practices have been successful in mitigating the effects of urbanization. Generally urbanization results in increased flood peak discharges. The overall increase in flood peak discharges seen in both streams probably is the result of the substantial increase in precipitation during the study period. Average annual runoff in Pheasant Branch has also been increasing due to increasing average annual precipitation and urbanization. The stormwater-management practices in Middleton have been successful in decreasing the suspended-sediment and total phosphorus loads to Lake Mendota from the Pheasant Branch watershed. These loads decreased in spite of increased annual runoff and flood peaks, which are often expected to produce higher sediment and phosphorus loads. The biggest decreases in sediment and phosphorus loads occurred after 2001 when a large detention pond, the Confluence Pond, began operation. Since 2001, the annual suspended-sediment load has decreased from 2,650 tons per year to 1,450 tons per year for a 45-percent decrease. The annual total phosphorus load has decreased from 12,200 pounds per year to 6,300 pounds per year for a 48-percent decrease. A comparison of Pheasant Branch at Middleton with two other streams, Spring Harbor Storm Sewer and Yahara River at Windsor, that drain into Lake Mendota shows that suspended-sediment and total phosphorus load decreases were greatest at Pheasant Branch at Middleton. Prior to the construction of the Confluence Pond, annual suspended-sediment yield and total phosphorus yield from Pheasant Branch watershed was the largest of the three watersheds. After 2001, suspended-sediment yield was greatest at Spring Harbor Storm Sewer, and lowest at Yahara at Windsor; annual total phosphorus yield was greater at Yahara River at Windsor than that of Pheasant Branch. The stormwater-quality plan for Middleton shows that the city has met the present State of Wisconsin Administrative Code chap. NR216/NR151 requirements of reducing total suspended solids by 20 percent for the developed area in Middleton. In addition, the city already has met the 40-percent reduction in total suspended solids required by 2013. Snow and ice melt runoff from road surfaces and parking lots following winter storms can effect water quality because the runoff contains varying amounts of road salt. To evaluate the effect of road deicing on stream water quality in Pheasant Branch, specific conductance and chloride were monitored during two winter seasons. The maximum estimated concentration of chloride during the monitoring period was 931 milligrams per liter, which exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency acute criterion of 860 milligrams per liter. Chloride concentrations exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency chronic criterion of 230 milligrams per liter for at least 10 days during February and March 2007 and for 45 days during the 2007-8 winter seasons. The total sodium chloride load for the monitoring period was 1,720 tons and the largest sodium chloride load occurred in March and April of each year.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2012

Water quality, hydrology, and simulated response to changes in phosphorus loading of Mercer Lake, Iron County, Wisconsin, with special emphasis on the effects of wastewater discharges

Mercer Lake is a relatively shallow drainage lake in north-central Wisconsin. The area near the lake has gone through many changes over the past century, including urbanization and industrial development. To try to improve the water quality of the lake, actions have been taken, such as removal of the lumber mill and diversion of all effluent from the sewage treatment plant away from the lake; however, it is uncertain how these actions have affected water quality. Mercer Lake area residents and authorities would like to continue to try to improve the water quality of the lake; however, they would like to place their efforts in the actions that will have the most beneficial effects. To provide a better understanding of the factors affecting the water quality of Mercer Lake, a detailed study of the lake and its watershed was conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in collaboration with the Mercer Lake Association. The purposes of the study were to describe the water quality of the lake and the composition of its sediments; quantify the sources of water and phosphorus loading to the lake, including sources associated with wastewater discharges; and evaluate the effects of past and future changes in phosphorus inputs on the water quality of the lake using eutrophication models (models that simulate changes in phosphorus and algae concentrations and water clarity in the lake). Based on analyses of sediment cores and monitoring data collected from the lake, the water quality of Mercer Lake appears to have degraded as a result of the activities in its watershed over the past 100 years. The water quality appears to have improved, however, since a sewage treatment plant was constructed in 1965 and its effluent was routed away from the lake in 1995. Since 2000, when a more consistent monitoring program began, the water quality of the lake appears to have changed very little. During the two monitoring years (MY) 2008-09, the average summer near-surface concentration of total phosphorus was 0.023 mg/L, indicating the lake is borderline mesotrophic-eutrophic, or has moderate to high concentrations of phosphorus, whereas the average summer chlorophyll a concentration was 3.3 mg/L and water clarity, as measured with a Secchi depth, was 10.4 ft, both indicating mesotrophic conditions or that the lake has a moderate amount of algae and water clarity. Although actions have been taken to eliminate the wastewater discharges, the bottom sediment still has slightly elevated concentrations of several pollutants from wastewater discharges, lumber operations, and roadway drainage, and a few naturally occurring metals (such as iron). None of the concentrations, however, were high enough above the defined thresholds to be of concern. Based on nitrogen to phosphorus ratios, the productivity (algal growth) in Mercer Lake should typically be limited by phosphorus; therefore, understanding the phosphorus input to the lake is important when management efforts to improve or prevent degradation of the lake water quality are considered. Total inputs of phosphorus to Mercer Lake were directly estimated for MY 2008-09 at about 340 lb/yr and for a recent year with more typical hydrology at about 475 lb/yr. During these years, the largest sources of phosphorus were from Little Turtle Inlet, which contributed about 45 percent, and the drainage area near the lake containing the adjacent urban and residential developments, which contributed about 24 percent. Prior to 1965, when there was no sewage treatment plant and septic systems and other untreated systems contributed nutrients to the watershed, phosphorus loadings were estimated to be about 71 percent higher than during around 2009. In 1965, a sewage treatment plant was built, but its effluent was released in the downstream end of the lake. Depending on various assumptions on how much effluent was retained in the lake, phosphorus inputs from wastewater may have ranged from 0 to 342 lb. Future highway and stormwater improvements have been identified in the Mercer Infrastructure Improvement Project, and if they are done with the proposed best management practices, then phosphorus inputs to the lake may decrease by about 40 lb. Eutrophication models [Canfield and Bachman model (1981) and Carlson Trophic State Index equations (1977)] were used to predict how the water quality of Mercer Lake should respond to changes in phosphorus loading. A relatively linear response was found between phosphorus loading and phosphorus and chlorophyll a concentrations in the lake, with changes in phosphorus concentrations being slightly less (about 80 percent) and changes in chlorophyll a concentrations being slightly more (about 120 percent) than the changes in phosphorus loadings to the lake. Water clarity, indicated by Secchi depths, responded more to decreases in phosphorus loading than to increases in loading. Results from the eutrophication models indicated that the lake should have been negatively affected by the wastewater discharges. Prior to 1965, when there was no sewage treatment plant effluent and inputs from the septic systems and other untreated systems were thought to be high, the lake should have been eutrophic; near the surface, average phosphorus concentrations were almost 0.035 mg/L, chlorophyll a concentrations were about 7 μg/L, and Secchi depths were about 6 ft, which agreed with the shallower Secchi depths during this time estimated from the sediment-core analysis. The models indicated that between 1965 and 1995, when the lake retained some of the effluent from the new sewage treatment plant, water quality should have been between the conditions estimated prior to 1965 and what was expected during typical hydrologic conditions around MY 2008-09. The models also indicated that if the future Mercer Infrastructure Improvement Project is conducted with the best management practices as proposed, the water quality in the lake could improve slightly from that measured during 2006-10. Because of the small amount of phosphorus that is presently input into Mercer Lake any additional phosphorus added to the lake could degrade water quality; therefore, management actions can usefully focus on minimizing future phosphorus inputs. Phosphorus released from the sediments of a degraded lake often delays its response to decreases in external phosphorus loading, especially in shallow, frequently mixed systems. Mercer Lake, however, remains stratified throughout most of the summer, and phosphorus released from the sediments represents only about 6 percent, or a small fraction, of the total phosphorus load to the lake. Therefore, the phosphorus trapped in the sediments should minimally affect the long-term water quality of the lake and should not delay the response in its productivity to future changes in nutrient loading from its watershed.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2011

Response in the trophic state of stratified lakes to changes in hydrology and water level: potential effects of climate change

To determine how climate-induced changes in hydrology and water level may affect the trophic state (productivity) of stratified lakes, two relatively pristine dimictic temperate lakes in Wisconsin, USA, were examined. Both are closed-basin lakes that experience changes in water level and degradation in water quality during periods of high water. One, a seepage lake with no inlets or outlets, has a small drainage basin and hydrology dominated by precipitation and groundwater exchange causing small changes in water and phosphorus (P) loading, which resulted in small changes in water level, P concentrations, and productivity. The other, a terminal lake with inlets but no outlets, has a large drainage basin and hydrology dominated by runoff causing large changes in water and P loading, which resulted in large changes in water level, P concentrations, and productivity. Eutrophication models accurately predicted the effects of changes in hydrology, P loading, and water level on their trophic state. If climate changes, larger changes in hydrology and water levels than previously observed could occur. If this causes increased water and P loading, stratified (dimictic and monomictic) lakes are expected to experience higher water levels and become more eutrophic, especially those with large developed drainage basins.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2010

Long-term hydrologic and biogeochemical responses of a soft water seepage lake in north central Wisconsin

Hydrologic and chemical budgets were determined for the period October 1980 through September 1988 for Vandercook Lake, a 43-ha soft water seepage lake located in predominantly sandy outwash in northern Wisconsin. The 1951–1980 mean annual precipitation for the lake, based on nearby National Weather Service (NWS) stations, was 825 mm; volume-weighted p H of bulk atmospheric deposition during the 8-year study averaged 4.7. From October 1980 through September 1983, annual precipitation was 108% of the 30-year NWS average, annual recharge was 144% of the 8-year study period average, and annual groundwater inflow to the lake ranged from 5 to 9% of the total inflow. From October 1986 through September 1988, annual precipitation was 90% of the NWS average, annual recharge was 30% of the study period average, and the lake received no groundwater inflow. During the study, the lake changed from a system whose buffering mechanism was significantly influenced by mineral weathering in inflowing groundwater to one dominated by in-lake sulfate reduction. The functional differences exhibited by this lake during the 8 years of study demonstrate the tenuousness with which conclusions based on shorter-term studies of similar systems must be considered.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2010

Hydrology, water quality, and response to changes in phosphorus loading of Minocqua and Kawaguesaga Lakes, Oneida County, Wisconsin, with special emphasis on effects of urbanization

Minocqua and Kawaguesaga Lakes are 1,318- and 690-acre interconnected lakes in the popular recreation area of north-central Wisconsin. The lakes are the lower end of a complex chain of lakes in Oneida and Vilas Counties, Wis. There is concern that increased stormwater runoff from rapidly growing residential/commercial developments and impervious surfaces from the urbanized areas of the Town of Minocqua and Woodruff, as well as increased effluent from septic systems around their heavily developed shoreline has increased nutrient loading to the lakes. Maintaining the quality of the lakes to sustain the tourist-based economy of the towns and the area was a concern raised by the Minocqua/Kawaguesaga Lakes Protection Association. Following several small studies, a detailed study during 2006 and 2007 was done by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Minocqua/Kawaguesaga Lakes Protection Association through the Town of Minocqua to describe the hydrology and water quality of the lakes, quantify the sources of phosphorus including those associated with urban development and to better understand the present and future effects of phosphorus loading on the water quality of the lakes. The water quality of Minocqua and Kawaguesaga Lakes appears to have improved since 1963, when a new sewage-treatment plant was constructed and its discharge was bypassed around the lakes, resulting in a decrease in phosphorus loading to the lakes. Since the mid-1980s, the water quality of the lakes has changed little in response to fluctuations in phosphorus loading from the watershed. From 1986 to 2009, summer average concentrations of near-surface total phosphorus in the main East Basin of Minocqua Lake fluctuated from 0.009 mg/L to 0.027 mg/L but generally remained less than 0.022 mg/L, indicating that the lake is mesotrophic. Phosphorus concentrations from 1988 through 1996, however, were lower than the long-term average, possibly the result of an extended drought in the area. Water‑quality data for Kawaguesaga Lake had a similar pattern to that of Minocqua Lake. Summer average chlorophyll a concentrations and Secchi depths also indicate that the lakes generally are mesotrophic but occasionally borderline eutrophic, with no long-term trends. During the study, major water and phosphorus sources were measured directly, and minor sources were estimated to construct detailed water and phosphorus budgets for the lakes for monitoring years (MY) 2006 and 2007. During these years, the Minocqua Thoroughfare contributed about 38 percent of the total inflow to the lakes, and Tomahawk Thoroughfare contributed 34 percent; near-lake inflow, precipitation, and groundwater contributed about 1, 16, and 11 percent of the total inflow, respectively. Water leaves the lakes primarily through the Tomahawk River outlet (83 percent) or by evaporation (14 percent), with minor outflow to groundwater. Total input of phosphorus to both lakes was about 3,440 pounds in MY 2006 and 2,200 pounds in MY 2007. The largest sources of phosphorus entering the lakes were the Minocqua and Tomahawk Thoroughfares, which delivered about 39 and 26 percent of the total, respectively. The near-lake drainage area, containing most of the urban and residential developments, disproportionately accounted for about 12 percent of the total phosphorus input but only about 1 percent of the total water input (estimated with WinSLAMM). The next largest contributions were from septic systems and precipitation, each contributing about 10 percent, whereas groundwater delivered about 4 percent of the total phosphorus input. Empirical lake water-quality models within BATHTUB were used to simulate the response of Minocqua and Kawaguesaga Lakes to 19 phosphorus-loading scenarios. These scenarios included the current base years (2006–07) for which lake water quality and loading were known, nine general increases or decreases in phosphorus loading from controllable external sources (inputs from the tributaries and nearshore areas around the lakes and input from septic systems), and nine scenarios corresponding to future changes in phosphorus loading from residential and urban development, referred to as “2030 buildout,” and removal of septic system inputs. The 2030 buildout scenario with existing stormwater controls resulted in a degradation in water quality: phosphorus concentrations increased by about 0.001 mg/L, chlorophyll a concentrations increased by 0.2–0.8 μg/L, and Secchi depths decreased slightly. The largest degradation in water quality was estimated to occur in Kawaguesaga Lake. If 2030 buildout occurred with implementation of best management practices to achieve a 50-percent reduction in loading from near-lake drainages, it is possible that water quality would change very little from existing conditions. Numerous noncontributing areas exist within the watershed that help minimize surface runoff and nutrient loading to the lakes; however, if future development included extending or connecting drainage from these areas into the lakes, loading to the lakes could greatly increase and cause a degradation in the water quality of the lakes. Simulations of removal of phosphorus loading from septic systems around Minocqua Lake improved the water quality of the lakes: in simulations for that scenario, phosphorus concentrations decreased by about 0.001 mg/L, chlorophyll a concentrations decreased by 0.5–0.7 μg/L, and Secchi depths increased by 0.3–0.7 ft. If all controllable external phosphorus loading could be reduced by 50 percent, the lakes would become oligotrophic with respect to phosphorus concentration but would still remain mesotrophic with respect to chlorophyll a concentration and Secchi depth. Improvements in the water quality of the lakes are likely only with a combination of management actions that decrease inputs from the developed near-lake drainage areas and from septic systems.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2009

Water Quality and Hydrology of Silver Lake, Barron County, Wisconsin, With Special Emphasis on Responses of a Terminal Lake to Changes in Phosphorus Loading and Water Level

Silver Lake is typically an oligotrophic-to-mesotrophic, soft-water, terminal lake in northwestern Wisconsin. A terminal lake is a closed-basin lake with surface-water inflows but no surface-water outflows to other water bodies. After several years with above-normal precipitation, very high water levels caused flooding of several buildings near the lake and erosion of soil around much of the shoreline, which has been associated with a degradation in water quality (increased phosphorus and chlorophyll a concentrations and decreased water clarity). To gain a better understanding of what caused the very high water levels and degradation in water quality and collect information to better understand the lake and protect it from future degradation, the U.S. Geological Survey did a detailed study from 2004 to 2008. This report describes results of the study; specifically, lake-water quality, historical changes in water level, water and phosphorus budgets for the two years monitored in the study, results of model simulations that demonstrate how changes in phosphorus inputs affect lake-water quality, and the relative importance of changes in hydrology and changes in the watershed to the water quality of the lake. From 1987 to about 1996, water quality in Silver Lake was relatively stable. Since 1996, however, summer average total phosphorus concentrations increased from about 0.008 milligrams per liter (mg/L) to 0.018 mg/L in 2003, before decreasing to 0.011 mg/L in 2008. From 1996 to 2003, Secchi depths decreased from about 14 to 7.4 feet, before increasing to about 19 feet in 2008. Therefore, Silver Lake is typically classified as oligotrophic to mesotrophic; however, during 2002-4, the lake was classified as mesotrophic to eutrophic. Because productivity in Silver Lake is limited by phosphorus, phosphorus budgets for the lake were constructed for monitoring years 2005 and 2006. The average annual input of phosphorus was 216 pounds: 78 percent from tributary and nearshore runoff and 22 percent from atmospheric deposition. Because Silver Lake is hydraulically mounded above the local groundwater system, little or no input of phosphorus to the lake is from groundwater and septic systems. Silver Lake had previously been incorrectly described as a groundwater flowthrough lake. Phosphorus budgets were constructed for a series of dry years (low water levels) and a series of wet years (high water levels). About 6 times more phosphorus was input to the lake during wet years with high water levels than during the dry years. Phosphorus from erosion represented 13-20 percent of the phosphorus input during years with very high water levels. Results from the Canfield and Bachman eutrophication model and Carlson trophic state index equations demonstrated that water quality in Silver Lake directly responds to changes in external phosphorus input, with the percent change in chlorophyll a being about 80 percent of the percent change in total phosphorus input and the change in Secchi depth and total phosphorus concentrations being about 40 and 50 percent of the percent change in input, respectively. Therefore, changes in phosphorus input should impact water quality. Specific scenarios were simulated with the models to describe the effects of natural (climate-driven) and anthropogenic (human-induced) changes. Results of these scenarios demonstrated that several years of above-normal precipitation cause sustained high water levels and a degradation in water quality, part of which is due to erosion of the shoreline. Results also demonstrated that 1) changes in tributary and nearshore runoff have a dramatic effect on lake-water quality, 2) diverting water into the lake to increase the water level is expected to degrade the water quality, and 3) removal of water to decrease the water level of the lake is expected to have little effect on water quality. Fluctuations in water levels since 1967, when records began for the lake, are representative

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2009

Water Quality and Hydrology of Whitefish (Bardon) Lake, Douglas County, Wisconsin, With Special Emphasis on Responses of an Oligotrophic Seepage Lake to Changes in Phosphorus Loading and Water Level

Whitefish Lake, which is officially named Bardon Lake, is an oligotrophic, soft-water seepage lake in northwestern Wisconsin, and classified by the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources as an Outstanding Resource Water. Ongoing monitoring of the lake demonstrated that its water quality began to degrade (increased phosphorus and chlorophyll a concentrations) around 2002 following a period of high water level. To provide a better understanding of what caused the degradation in water quality, and provide information to better understand the lake and protect it from future degradation, the U.S. Geological Survey did a detailed study from 2004 to 2008. The goals of the study were to describe the past and present water quality of the lake, quantify water and phosphorus budgets for the lake, simulate the potential effects of changes in phosphorus inputs on the lake's water quality, analyze changes in the water level in the lake since 1900, and relate the importance of changes in climate and changes in anthropogenic (human-induced) factors in the watershed to the water quality of the lake. Since 1998, total phosphorus concentrations increased from near the 0.005-milligrams per liter (mg/L) detection limit to about 0.010 mg/L in 2006, and then decreased slightly in 2007-08. During this time, chlorophyll a concentrations and Secchi depths remained relatively stable at about 1.5 micrograms per liter (ug/L) and 26 feet, respectively. Whitefish Lake is typically classified as oligotrophic. Because the productivity in Whitefish Lake is limited by phosphorus, phosphorus budgets were constructed for the lake. Because it was believed that much of its phosphorus comes from the atmosphere, phosphorus deposition was measured in this study. Phosphorus input from the atmosphere was greater than computed based on previously reported wetfall phosphorus concentrations. The concentrations and deposition rates can be used to estimate atmospheric loading in future lake studies. The average annual load of phosphorus to the lake was 232 pounds: 56 percent from precipitation, 27 percent from groundwater, and 16 percent from septic systems. During a series of dry years (low water levels) and wet years (high water levels), the inputs of water and phosphorus ranged by only 10-13 percent. Results from the Canfield and Bachmann eutrophication model and Carlson trophic-state-index equations demonstrated that the lake directly responds to changes in external phosphorus loading, with percent change in chlorophyll a being similar to the percent change in loading and the change in total phosphorus and Secchi depth being slightly smaller. Therefore, changes in phosphorus loading should affect the water quality of the lake. Specific scenarios that simulated the effects of anthropogenic (human-induced) and climatic (water level) changes demonstrated that: surface-water inflow (runoff) based on current development has little effect on pelagic water quality, changes in the inputs from septic systems and development in the watershed could have a large effect on water quality, and decreases in water and phosphorus loading during periods of low water level had little effect on water quality. Sustained high water levels, resulting from several wet years with relatively high water and phosphorus input, however, could cause a small degradation in water quality. Although high water levels may be associated with a degradation in water quality, it appears that anthropogenic changes in the watershed may be more important in affecting the future water quality of the lake. Fluctuations in water levels since 1998 are representative of what has occurred since 1900, with fluctuations of about 3 feet occurring about every 15 years. Based on total phosphorus concentrations inferred from sediment core analysis, there has been little long-term change in water quality and there has been a slight deterioration in water quality following most periods of high water levels. There

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2008

Water quality, hydrology, and simulated response to changes in phosphorus loading of Butternut Lake, Price and Ashland Counties, Wisconsin, with special emphasis on the effects of internal phosphorus loading in a polymictic lake

Butternut Lake is a 393-hectare, eutrophic to hypereutrophic lake in northcentral Wisconsin. After only minor improvements in water quality were observed following several actions taken to reduce the nutrient inputs to the lake, a detailed study was conducted from 2002 to 2007 by the U.S. Geological Survey to better understand how the lake functions. The goals of this study were to describe the water quality and hydrology of the lake, quantify external and internal sources of phosphorus, and determine the effects of past and future changes in phosphorus inputs on the water quality of the lake. Since the early 1970s, the water quality of Butternut Lake has changed little in response to nutrient reductions from the watershed. The largest changes were in near-surface total phosphorus concentrations: August concentrations decreased from about 0.09 milligrams per liter (mg/L) to about 0.05 mg/L, but average summer concentrations decreased only from about 0.055—0.060 mg/L to about 0.045 mg/L. Since the early 1970s, only small changes were observed in chlorophyll a concentrations and water clarity (Secchi depths). All major water and phosphorus sources, including the internal release of phosphorus from the sediments (internal loading), were measured directly, and minor sources were estimated to construct detailed water and phosphorus budgets for the lake during monitoring years (MY) 2003 and 2004. During these years, Butternut Creek, Spiller Creek, direct precipitation, small tributaries and near-lake drainage area, and ground water contributed about 62, 20, 8, 7, and 3 percent of the inflow, respectively. The average annual load of phosphorus to the lake was 2,540 kilograms (kg), of which 1,590 kg came from external sources (63 percent) and 945 kg came from the sediments in the lake (37 percent). Of the total external sources, Butternut Creek, Spiller Creek, small tributaries and near-lake drainage area, septic systems, precipitation, and ground water contributed about 63, 23, 9, 3, 1, and 1 percent, respectively. Because of the high internal phosphorus loading, the eutrophication models used in this study were unable to simulate the observed water-quality characteristics in the lake without incorporating this source of phosphorus. However, when internal loading of phosphorus was added to the BATHTUB model, it accurately simulated the average water-quality characteristics measured in MY 2003 and 2004. Model simulations demonstrated a relatively linear response between in-lake total phosphorus concentrations and external phosphorus loading; however, the changes in concentrations were smaller than the changes in external phosphorus loadings (about 25—40 percent of the change in phosphorus loading). Changes in chlorophyll a concentrations, the percentage of days with algal blooms, and Secchi depths were nonlinear and had a greater response to reductions in phosphorus loading than to increases in phosphorus loading. A 50-percent reduction in external phosphorus loading caused an 18-percent decrease in chlorophyll a concentrations, a 41-percent decrease in the percentage of days with algal blooms, and a 12-percent increase in Secchi depth. When the additional internal phosphorus loading was removed from model simulations, all of these constituents showed a much greater response to changes in external phosphorus loading. Because of Butternut Lake's morphometry, it is polymictic, which means it mixes frequently and does not develop stable thermal stratification throughout the summer. This characteristic makes it more vulnerable than dimictic lakes, which mix in spring and fall and develop stable thermal stratification during summer, to the high internal phosphorus loading that has resulted from historically high, nonnatural, external phosphorus loading. In polymictic lakes, the phosphorus released from the sediments is mixed into the upper part of the lake throughout summer. Once Butternut Lake became hypereutrophic (very productive), it became very difficult to alter its trophic state through reductions in external phosphorus loading because the high internal loading does not respond quickly to reductions in external nutrient loading. For Butternut Lake to become significantly less productive (change to a borderline mesotrophic/eutrophic state) a combined approach to reduce or eliminate internal phosphorus loading and reduce the external phosphorus loading by about 50 percent is needed.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2008

Flood of June 2008 in Southern Wisconsin

In June 2008, heavy rain caused severe flooding across southern Wisconsin. The floods were aggravated by saturated soils that persisted from unusually wet antecedent conditions from a combination of floods in August 2007, more than 100 inches of snow in winter 2007-08, and moist conditions in spring 2008. The flooding caused immediate evacuations and road closures and prolonged, extensive damages and losses associated with agriculture, businesses, housing, public health and human needs, and infrastructure and transportation. Record gage heights and streamflows occurred at 21 U.S. Geological Survey streamgages across southern Wisconsin from June 7 to June 21. Peak-gage-height data, peak-streamflow data, and flood probabilities are tabulated for 32 USGS streamgages in southern Wisconsin. Peak-gage-height and peak-streamflow data also are tabulated for three ungaged locations. Extensive flooding along the Baraboo River, Kickapoo River, Crawfish River, and Rock River caused particularly severe damages in nine communities and their surrounding areas: Reedsburg, Rock Springs, La Farge, Gays Mills, Milford, Jefferson, Fort Atkinson, Janesville, and Beloit. Flood-peak inundation maps and water-surface profiles were generated for the nine communities in a geographic information system by combining flood high-water marks with available 1-10-meter resolution digital-elevation-model data. The high-water marks used in the maps were a combination of those surveyed during the June flood by communities, counties, and Federal agencies and hundreds of additional marks surveyed in August by the USGS. The flood maps and profiles outline the extent and depth of flooding through the communities and are being used in ongoing (as of November 2008) flood response and recovery efforts by local, county, State, and Federal agencies.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2006

Water Quality, Hydrology, and Response to Changes in Phosphorus Loading of Nagawicka Lake, a Calcareous Lake in Waukesha County, Wisconsin

Nagawicka Lake is a 986-acre, usually mesotrophic, calcareous lake in southeastern Wisconsin. Because of concern over potential water-quality degradation of the lake associated with further development in its watershed, a study was conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey from 2002 to 2006 to describe the water quality and hydrology of the lake; quantify sources of phosphorus, including those associated with urban development; and determine the effects of past and future changes in phosphorus loading on the water quality of the lake. All major water and phosphorus sources were measured directly, and minor sources were estimated to construct detailed water and phosphorus budgets for the lake. The Bark River, near-lake surface inflow, precipitation, and ground water contributed 74, 8, 12, and 6 percent of the inflow, respectively. Water leaves the lake primarily through the Bark River outlet (88 percent) or by evaporation (11 percent). The water quality of Nagawicka Lake has improved dramatically since 1980 as a result of decreasing the historical loading of phosphorus to the lake. Total input of phosphorus to the lake was about 3,000 pounds in monitoring year (MY) 2003 and 6,700 pounds in MY 2004. The largest source of phosphorus entering the lake was the Bark River, which delivered about 56 percent of the total phosphorus input, compared with about 74 percent of the total water input. The next largest contributions were from the urbanized near-lake drainage area, which disproportionately accounted for 37 percent of the total phosphorus input but only about 5 percent of the total water input. Simulations with water-quality models within the Wisconsin Lakes Modeling Suite (WiLMS) indicated the response of Nagawicka Lake to 10 phosphorus-loading scenarios. These scenarios included historical (1970s) and current (base) years (MY 2003-04) for which lake water quality and loading were known, six scenarios with percentage increases or decreases in phosphorus loading from controllable sources relative to the base years 2003-04, and two scenarios corresponding to specific management actions. Because of the lake's calcareous character, the average simulated summer concentration of total phosphorus for Nagawicka Lake was about 2 times that measured in the lake. The models likely over-predict because they do not account for coprecipitation of phosphorus and dissolved organic matter with calcite, negligible release of phosphorus from the deep sediments, and external phosphorus loading with abnormally high amounts of nonavailable phosphorus. After adjusting the simulated results for the overestimation of the models, a 50-percent reduction in phosphorus loading resulted in an average predicted phosphorus concentration of 0.008 milligrams per liter (mg/L) (a decrease of 46 percent). With a 50-percent increase in phosphorus loading, the average predicted concentration was 0.020 mg/L (an increase of 45 percent). With the changes in land use under the assumed future full development conditions, the average summer total phosphorus concentration should remain similar to that measured in MY 2003-04 (approximately 0.014 mg/L). However, if stormwater and nonpoint controls are added to achieve a 50-percent reduction in loading from the urbanized near-lake drainage area, the average summer total phosphorus concentration should decrease from the present conditions (MY 2003-04) to 0.011 mg/L. Slightly more than a 25-percent reduction in phosphorus loading from that measured in MY 2003-04 would be required for the lake to be classified as oligotrophic.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2005

Water quality, hydrology, and phosphorus loading to Little St. Germain Lake, Wisconsin, with special emphasis on the effects of winter aeration and ground-water inputs

Little St. Germain Lake is a 978-acre, multibasin lake in Vilas County, Wisconsin. In the interest of protecting and improving the water quality of the lake, the Little St. Germain Lake District initiated several cooperative studies with the U.S. Geological Survey between 1991 and 2004 to (1) document the water quality and the extent of winter anoxia in the lake, (2) evaluate the success of aerators at eliminating winter anoxia, (3) develop water and nutrient budgets for the lake, and (4) assess how the water quality of the lake should respond to changes in phosphorus loading. This report presents the results of these cooperative studies with special emphasis on the water quality in the lake since 2000, including the effects of winter aeration and the importance of ground-water contributions of phosphorus to the productivity of the lake. Measurements collected during these studies indicate that the water quality in Little St. Germain Lake was consistently different among basins. The West Bay consistently had the best water quality, the South Bay had intermediate water quality, and the East and Upper East Bays consistently had the worst water quality. The water quality in each of the basins was relatively stable from 1991 to 2000; however, since 2001, the West Bay has changed from oligotrophic to mesotrophic, the South Bay has changed from mesotrophic to eutrophic, and the East and Upper East Bays have changed from eutrophic to eutrophic/hypereutrophic. Winter anoxia frequently occurred throughout most of the lake, except in the West Bay and just below the ice in the East Bay. To eliminate winter anoxia, coarse-bubble line aerators were installed and operated in the Upper East, East, and South Bays. The aerators in the Upper East and South Bays were very successful at eliminating winter anoxia; however, the aerator in the East Bay had little impact on the dissolved oxygen concentrations throughout its basin. Detailed water and phosphorus budgets computed for the lake indicated that inflow from Muskellunge Creek was the major source of phosphorus to the lake and that ground water was the secondary source. Results from a detailed ground-water-flow model indicated that ground water flows into the lake from all sides, except the south sides of the West and Second South Bays. Most of the phosphorus appears to come from natural sources, such as ground water and surface water flowing through relatively undeveloped areas surrounding Little St. Germain Lake and Muskellunge Lake. Several empirical water-quality models were used to simulate how the East and Upper East Bays of the lake should respond to reductions in phosphorus loading from Muskellunge Creek. Simulation results indicated that reductions in tributary loading could improve the water quality of the East and Upper East Bays. Improving the water quality of these bays would also improve the water quality of the South and Second South Bays because of the flow of water through the lake. However, even with phosphorus loading from Muskellunge Creek completely eliminated, most of the lake would remain borderline mesotrophic/eutrophic because of the contributions of phosphorus from ground water.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2004

Water quality, hydrology, and the effects of changes in phosphorus loading to Pike Lake, Washington County, Wisconsin, with special emphasis on inlet-to-outlet short-circuiting

Pike Lake is a 459-acre, mesotrophic to eutrophic dimictic lake in southeastern Wisconsin. Because of concern over degrading water quality in the lake associated with further development in its watershed, a study was conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey from 1998 to 2000 to describe the water quality and hydrology of the lake, quantify sources of phosphorus including the effects of short-circuiting of inflows, and determine how changes in phosphorus loading should affect the water quality of the lake. Measuring all significant water and phosphorus sources and estimating lesser sources was the method used to construct detailed water and phosphorus budgets. The Rubicon River, ungaged near-lake surface inflow, precipitation, and ground water provide 55, 20, 17, and 7 percent of the total inflow, respectively. Water leaves the lake through the Rubicon River outlet (87 percent) or by evaporation (13 percent). Total input of phosphorus to the lake was about 3,500 pounds in 1999 and 2,400 pounds in 2000. About 80 percent of the phosphorus was from the Rubicon River, about half of which came from the watershed and half from a waste-water treatment plant in Slinger, Wisconsin. Inlet-to-outlet short-circuiting of phosphorus is facilitated by a meandering segment of the Rubicon River channel through a marsh at the north end of the lake. It is estimated that 77 percent of phosphorus from the Rubicon River in monitoring year 1999 and 65 percent in monitoring year 2000 was short-circuited to the outlet without entering the main body of the lake. Simulations using water-quality models within the Wisconsin Lake Model Suite (WiLMS) indicated Pike Lake's response to 13 different phosphorus-loading scenarios. These scenarios included a base 'normal' year (2000) for which lake water quality and loading were known, six different percentage increases or decreases in phosphorus loading from controllable sources, and six different loading scenarios corresponding to specific management actions. Model simulations indicate that a 50-percent reduction in controllable loading sources would be needed to achieve a mesotrophic classification with respect to phosphorus, chlorophyll a, and Secchi depth (an index of water clarity). Model simulations indicated that short-circuiting of phosphorus from the inlet to the outlet was the main reason the water quality of the lake is good relative to the amount of loading from the Rubicon River and that changes in the percentage of inlet-to-outlet short-circuiting have a significant influence on the water quality of the lake.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2003

Water quality and the effects of changes in phosphorus loading to Muskellunge Lake, Vilas County, Wisconsin

Muskellunge Lake is a productive, eutrophic lake because of high nutrient loading. Historical data indicate that water quality has only slightly degraded since the early 1970s, possibly because of phosphorus input from effluent from septic systems. A detailed phosphorus budget for the lake indicated that most of the phosphorus comes from natural sources?ground water and surface water flowing through relatively undeveloped areas surrounding the lake. Modeling results indicated that the natural input of phosphorus was sufficient to maintain the lake's eutrophic condition. Analysis of sediment cores confirmed that only small changes in nutrient and algal concentrations have occurred over the past 100 years; however, the analysis indicated that the macrophyte community has increased over this time period. The aeration system, installed to alleviate winter anoxia, maintains aerobic conditions throughout the main bays of the lake.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2003

Water quality and the effects of changes in phosphorus loading, Red Cedar Lakes, Barron and Washburn Counties, Wisconsin

The Red Cedar Lakes consist of three mainstem lakes (Balsam, Hemlock and Red Cedar) on the Red Cedar River in Barron and Washburn Counties, Wisconsin. These lakes are productive because of high phosphorus loading, and classified as mesotrophic to eutrophic. Because of concerns that the water quality of these lakes was degrading, three cooperative studies were conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey between 1993 and 2003. As part of these studies, water quality in the lakes was documented in 1993?94, 1996?97, and 2000?01, and water and phosphorus budgets were constructed for water year 2001. Historical water-quality data indicated that the lakes have changed little since the late 1980s. A detailed phosphorus budget indicated that most of the 14,100 pounds of phosphorus input to the lakes during 2001 came from the upstream lakes, streams draining relatively undeveloped land upstream of Hemlock Lake, and ground water. Simulation results from two water-quality models (BATHTUB and WiLMS) indicated that about a 50-percent reduction in phosphorus loading from that measured in 2001 is required for all three lakes to be classified as mesotrophic; therefore, appreciable improvements in the water quality would require improvements in the water quality of the upstream lakes. Although the water quality of the lakes has not changed appreciably in recent years and major improvements in water quality are unlikely without major improvements to upstream lakes, continued efforts to protect the susceptible watershed are necessary to maintain the current level of water quality.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2002

Simulation of Fish, Mud, and Crystal Lakes and the shallow ground-water system, Dane County, Wisconsin

A new MODFLOW lake package (LAK3) that simulates ground-water/lake interaction was used in simulation of Fish, Mud and Crystal Lakes?three shallow seepage lakes located in northwestern Dane County, Wis. The simulations were done to help determine the cause of increasing lake stages and provide a tool to estimate the effect of pumping water from Fish lake on future lake stages. The ground-water-flow model was developed using a telescopic-mesh refinement of the Dane and southwestern Columbia Counties regional model previously developed by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Wisconsin Geological and Natural History Survey. The parameter estimation model, UCODE, was coupled to the steadystate ground-water model to automate and optimize the calibration procedure. The steady-state model was calibrated to measured ground-water levels, Spring Creek streamflow measured at Lodi, and Fish and Crystal Lake stages. The results of the steady-state model were used as initial conditions in a transient simulation beginning in 1966 and ending in 1998. Recharge based on annual baseflow in Black Earth Creek, runoff based on measured coefficients, and precipitation and evaporation from the lake surfaces, were varied during the transient simulation. Measured Fish Lake stage was matched to simulated stage to calibrate the transient model. Model results suggest that the increase in regional ground-water recharge resulted in increased ground-water flow to the lake, which in turn resulted in increased lake stages. Simulation results of withdrawal of water from Fish Lake at 500 gallons per minute, assuming 1990?98 climatic conditions, indicate that after 1 year of pumping the stage of Fish and Mud Lakes would be reduced more than 1 foot and the stage of Crystal Lake would be reduced by less than 0.2 foot. When pumping is stopped, the lake stages would recover to near pre-pumping levels within about 3 years. When pumping is extended to 5 years, Fish and Mud Lake stage would be reduced by a maximum of 3.8 feet and Crystal Lake stage is reduced a maximum of 0.8 feet. After 4 years of recovery, Fish and Mud Lake stages are within 0.9 foot of prepumping levels and Crystal Lake stage is within 0.7 foot.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2002

Hydrologic investigation of Powell Marsh and its relation to Dead Pike Lake, Vilas County, Wisconsin

An analytic element ground-water-flow model was constructed to help understand the ground- and surface-water hydrology in the vicinity of Dead Pike Lake and Powell Marsh, Vilas County, Wisconsin. The model was used to simulate the effect of removing Powell Marsh control structures (ditches and Vista Pond) on the hydrology of Dead Pike Lake. Measurements and model simulation results show that ground water in the vicinity of Powell Marsh moves to the northwest and west. If Powell Marsh structures are removed from the simulation, it does not affect the general direction of ground-water flow nor the total flow to Dead Pike Lake. Without the simulated structures, slightly more ground-water flow enters Dead Pike Lake and slightly less surface-water flows at the Dead Pike Lake inlet than with the simulated structures. Ground-water levels measured in piezometers installed along a flow path indicated that ground-water flow primarily is horizontal in the marsh and moves upward in the vicinity of a ditch where it discharges. Flow from Vista Pond is downward to the ground-water system but eventually also discharges upward to the ditches. Based on analyses of water samples from piezometers, the ditch, and Vista Pond, it was shown that dissolved iron is transported in the ground water. When ground water is discharged, iron and manganese react with dissolved oxygen, then precipitates, and forms the oxyhydroxide floc present in the Powell Marsh ditches. The processes involved in the transport and floc formation are not unique to the ditches, but are an expected outcome where discharging ground water and oxygenated surface water meet. Therefore, although floc formed in the ditches would no longer be available for transport if ditches were removed, it is likely that the floc formation would be redirected to the near-shore areas of Dead Pike Lake where increased groundwater discharge is expected.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2002

Hydrology and water quality of Geneva Lake, Walworth County, Wisconsin

As part of continuing efforts to improve the water quality of Geneva Lake, a collaborative effort between the U.S. Geological Survey, the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, and the Geneva Lake Environmental Agency was initiated in 1997 to document the present quality of the lake and its sediments, compute detailed hydrologic and nutrient (primarily phosphorus) budgets for the lake, estimate how changes in nutrient loading may affect water quality, and describe changes in the lake over the past 170 years by comparing water quality measured in this study with historical measurements and sediment-core information. This report presents the results of this collaborative study. Measurements collected during this study (1997.2000) indicate that the trophic status of the lake ranges from mesotrophic to oligotrophic: the mean Secchi depth was 4.8 m (meters), mean surface phosphorus concentration was 9 ?g/L (micrograms per liter), mean surface nitrogen concentration was 550 ?g/L, and mean surface chlorophyll a concentration was 3 ?g/L. Surface nitrogen: phosphorus ratios indicated that, if just these nutrients are considered, phosphorus should be the limiting nutrient. Phosphorus budgets constructed for water years 1998 and 1999 indicate that recent annual phosphorus loads were about 2,000 kg (kilograms) less than that estimated in 1975 (total annual input was about 3,200 kg in 1998 and about 8,500 kg in 1999). The major source of phosphorus to the lake was from its tributaries, which contributed about 84 percent of the total load. The primary difference from the phosphorus load estimates for 1975 was the decrease in loading from the Fontana sewage-treatment plant. Direct measurements and indirect measurements based on sediment-core analyses indicate that the water quality of Geneva Lake has degraded in the last 170 years, the greatest effects resulting from urbanization. Sedimentation rates were highest between 1900 to 1930, and phosphorus concentrations were highest between the 1930s to early 1980s. As a result of the recent reduction in phosphorus loading, in-lake near-surface phosphorus concentrations decreased from 20.25 ?g/L to about 10.15 ?g/L and are similar to those estimated for the lake in the early 1900s. Concentrations of other chemical constituents associated with urban areas, however, have continually increased, especially in Williams Bay and Geneva Bay.

Wisconsin↗