Southern Californians cope with earthquakes
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Geology topics
William H. Prescott
Publications and source records attributed to William H. Prescott.
The Loma Prieta, California, earthquake of October 17, 1989: Preseismic observations
The October 17, 1989, Loma Prieta, Calif., Ms=7.1 earthquake provided the first opportunity in the history of fault monitoring in the United States to gather multidisciplinary preearthquake data in the near field of an M=7 earthquake. The data obtained include observations on seismicity, continuous strain, long-term ground displacement, magnetic field, and hydrology. The papers in this chapter describe these data, their implications for fault-failure mechanisms, the scale of prerupture nucleation, and earthquake prediction in general. Of the 10 papers presented here, about half identify preearthquake anomalies in the data, but some of these results are equivocal. Seismicity in the Loma Prieta region during the 20 years leading up to the earthquake was unremarkable. In retrospect, however, it is apparent that the principal southwest-dipping segment of the subsequent Loma Prieta rupture was virtually aseismic during this period. Two M=5 earthquakes did occur near Lake Elsman near the junction of the Sargent and San Andreas faults within 2.5 and 15 months of, and 10 km to the north of, the Loma Prieta epicenter. Although these earthquakes were not on the subsequent rupture plane of the Loma Prieta earthquake and other M=5 earthquakes occurred in the preceding 25 years, it is now generally accepted that these events were, in some way, foreshocks to the main event.
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Global positioning system measurements for crustal deformation: Precision and accuracy
Analysis of 27 repeated observations of Global Positioning System (GPS) position-difference vectors, up to 11 kilometers in length, indicates that the standard deviation of the measurements is 4 millimeters for the north component, 6 millimeters for the east component, and 10 to 20 millimeters for the vertical component. The uncertainty grows slowly with increasing vector length. At 225 kilometers, the standard deviation of the measurement is 6, 11, and 40 millimeters for the north, east, and up components, respectively. Measurements with GPS and Geodolite, an electromagnetic distance-measuring system, over distances of 10 to 40 kilometers agree within 0.2 part per million. Measurements with GPS and very long baseline interferometry of the 225-kilometer vector agree within 0.05 part per million.
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