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William Ellsworth

Publications and source records attributed to William Ellsworth.

7 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2026

The digital archivist: Automating legacy macroseismic data processing using large language models

Macroseismic data are a key resource to investigate shaking and damage from preinstrumental and early instrumental eras. However, data are often stored as inconsistently formatted reports describing observed shaking and damage, making manually parsing and interpreting accounts labor‐intensive. We introduce a novel workflow using Google’s Gemini 2.5 Pro large language model (LLM) to automate the extraction and structuring of macroseismic observations from summary reports. We apply this workflow to the 22 March 1957 M 5.3 Daly City, California, earthquake as a case study. We used Gemini to extract addresses, originally assigned modified Mercalli intensity values, and descriptions from each report. To address coordinate precision limits, addresses were geocoded via Google’s Geocoding application programming interface. This workflow yielded over 2300 geocoded intensity reports for the Daly City earthquake. We use the geocoded accounts, with the original report intensity assignments, to develop a shaking intensity map that in some respects rivals modern Did You Feel It? Maps. We also extract and present data for the 9 February 1971 M L 6.7 Sylmar, California, earthquake. Our results demonstrate the potential of LLMs for reliably extracting and analyzing large, unstructured macroseismic datasets. LLMs offer a scalable solution for rapidly digitizing macroseismic archives, enabling their broader use to constrain ground‐motion models in modern seismic hazard analysis and to improve our understanding of site effects in urban areas. The concepts explored here may also be applied to the handling of other legacy seismological and earth science data.

Seismological Research Letters↗
USGS2025

Potential for continental scientific drilling to inform fault mechanics and earthquake science

Our understanding of fault mechanics and earthquake processes remains limited, largely due to minimal direct observations near active faults at seismogenic depths. This lack of data restricts our ability to accurately assess and mitigate both natural and human-induced seismic hazards. However, recent advancements in drilling capabilities and downhole sensing technologies offer an opportunity: the ability to observe the physical conditions within a volume near active fault zones. In this contribution, we highlight how scientific drilling can provide access to the near-fault environment, enabling measurements of the stress, temperature, fluid pressure, and rock properties at depths where ruptures initiate, propagate, and arrest. These observations are essential to refine models of earthquake nucleation and dynamic rupture, bridging gaps between laboratory experiments, numerical simulations, and surface observations. These insights can advance fundamental understanding in earthquake science but also support the development of more effective seismic hazard assessments and risk mitigation strategies.

Seismica↗
USGS2025

Overview of The SCEC/USGS Community Stress Drop Validation Study using the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence

We present initial findings from the ongoing Community Stress Drop Validation Study to compare spectral stress‐drop estimates for earthquakes in the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, sequence. This study uses a unified dataset to independently estimate earthquake source parameters through various methods. Stress drop, which denotes the change in average shear stress along a fault during earthquake rupture, is a critical parameter in earthquake science, impacting ground motion, rupture simulation, and source physics. Spectral stress drop is commonly derived by fitting the amplitude‐spectrum shape, but estimates can vary substantially across studies for individual earthquakes. Sponsored jointly by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Statewide (previously, Southern) California Earthquake Center our community study aims to elucidate sources of variability and uncertainty in earthquake spectral stress‐drop estimates through quantitative comparison of submitted results from independent analyses. The dataset includes nearly 13,000 earthquakes ranging from M 1 to 7 during a two‐week period of the 2019 Ridgecrest sequence, recorded within a 1° radius. In this article, we report on 56 unique submissions received from 20 different groups, detailing spectral corner frequencies (or source durations), moment magnitudes, and estimated spectral stress drops. Methods employed encompass spectral ratio analysis, spectral decomposition and inversion, finite‐fault modeling, ground‐motion‐based approaches, and combined methods. Initial analysis reveals significant scatter across submitted spectral stress drops spanning over six orders of magnitude. However, we can identify between‐method trends and offsets within the data to mitigate this variability. Averaging submissions for a prioritized subset of 56 events shows reduced variability of spectral stress drop, indicating overall consistency in recovered spectral stress‐drop values.

California↗
USGS2012

Source characterization of near-surface chemical explosions at SAFOD

A series of near‐surface chemical explosions conducted at the San Andreas Fault Observatory at Depth (SAFOD) main hole were recorded by high‐frequency downhole receiver arrays in April 2005. These seismic recordings at depths ranging from the surface to 2.3 km constrain the shallow velocity and attenuation structure as well as the first‐order characteristics of the source. Forward modeling of the explosions indicates that a source consisting of combined explosion, delayed implosion, and second‐order moment‐tensor components (corresponding to a distribution of vertical shear dislocations in the rock directly above the explosion) is sufficient to characterize the generated seismic wave fields to first order. Grid searches over source parameters controlling the nonexplosive components allow for the quantification of distributed vertical shear above the source and the estimation of the moment and time delay of the implosive component relative to the explosion. An estimated implosive to explosive moment ratio of 0.34 to 0.43 indicates a net static moment and positive macroscopic volume change.

California↗
USGS2011

Scientific drilling into the San Andreas Fault Zone

This year, the world has faced energetic and destructive earthquakes almost every month. In January, an M = 7.0 event rocked Haiti, killing an estimated 230,000 people. In February, an M = 8.8 earthquake and tsunami claimed over 500 lives and caused billions of dollars of damage in Chile. Fatal earthquakes also occurred in Turkey in March and in China and Mexico in April.

California↗
USGS2011

Scientific drilling into the San Andreas Fault Zone - an overview of SAFOD's first five years

The San Andreas Fault Observatory at Depth (SAFOD) was drilled to study the physical and chemical processes controlling faulting and earthquake generation along an active, plate-bounding fault at depth. SAFOD is located near Parkfield, California and penetrates a section of the fault that is moving due to a combination of repeating microearthquakes and fault creep. Geophysical logs define the San Andreas Fault Zone to be relatively broad (~200 m), containing several discrete zones only 2–3 m wide that exhibit very low P- and S-wave velocities and low resistivity. Two of these zones have progressively deformed the cemented casing at measured depths of 3192 m and 3302 m. Cores from both deforming zones contain a pervasively sheared, cohesionless, foliated fault gouge that coincides with casing deformation and explains the observed extremely low seismic velocities and resistivity. These cores are being now extensively tested in laboratories around the world, and their composition, deformation mechanisms, physical properties, and rheological behavior are studied. Downhole measurements show that within 200 m (maximum) of the active fault trace, the direction of maximum horizontal stress remains at a high angle to the San Andreas Fault, consistent with other measurements. The results from the SAFOD Main Hole, together with the stress state determined in the Pilot Hole, are consistent with a strong crust/weak fault model of the San Andreas. Seismic instrumentation has been deployed to study physics of faulting—earthquake nucleation, propagation, and arrest—in order to test how laboratory-derived concepts scale up to earthquakes occurring in nature.

California↗