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Wayne R. Thatcher

Publications and source records attributed to Wayne R. Thatcher.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2018

Leveraging geodetic data to reduce losses from earthquakes

Seismic hazard assessments that are based on a variety of data and the best available science, coupled with rapid synthesis of real-time information from continuous monitoring networks to guide post-earthquake response, form a solid foundation for effective earthquake loss reduction. With this in mind, the Earthquake Hazards Program (EHP) of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Natural Hazards Mission Area (NHMA) engages in a variety of undertakings, both established and emergent, in order to provide high quality products that enable stakeholders to take action in advance of and in response to earthquakes. Examples include the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM), development of tools for improved situational awareness such as earthquake early warning (EEW) and operational earthquake forecasting (OEF), research about induced seismicity, and new efforts to advance comprehensive subduction zone science and monitoring. Geodetic observations provide unique and complementary information directly relevant to advancing many aspects of these efforts (fig. 1). EHP scientists have long leveraged geodetic data for a range of influential studies, and they continue to develop innovative observation and analysis methods that push the boundaries of the field of geodesy as applied to natural hazards research. Given the ongoing, rapid improvement in availability, variety, and precision of geodetic measurements, considering ways to fully utilize this observational resource for earthquake loss reduction is timely and essential. This report presents strategies, and the underlying scientific rationale, by which the EHP could achieve the following outcomes: The EHP is an authoritative source for the interpretation of geodetic data and its use for earthquake loss reduction throughout the United States and its territories. The USGS consistently provides timely, high quality geodetic data to stakeholders. Significant earthquakes are better characterized by incorporating geodetic data into USGS event response products and by expanded use of geodetic imaging data to assess fault rupture and source parameters. Uncertainties in the NSHM, and in regional earthquake models, are reduced by fully incorporating geodetic data into earthquake probability calculations. Geodetic networks and data are integrated into the operations and earthquake information products of the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS). Earthquake early warnings are improved by more rapidly assessing ground displacement and the dynamic faulting process for the largest earthquakes using real-time geodetic data. Methodology for probabilistic earthquake forecasting is refined by including geodetic data when calculating evolving moment release during aftershock sequences and by better understanding the implications of transient deformation for earthquake likelihood. A geodesy program that encompasses a balanced mix of activities to sustain missioncritical capabilities, grows new competencies through the continuum of fundamental to applied research, and ensures sufficient resources for these endeavors provides a foundation by which the EHP can be a leader in the application of geodesy to earthquake science. With this in mind the following objectives provide a framework to guide EHP efforts: Fully utilize geodetic information to improve key products, such as the NSHM and EEW, and to address new ventures like the USGS Subduction Zone Science Plan. Expand the variety, accuracy, and timeliness of post-earthquake information products, such as PAGER (Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response), through incorporation of geodetic observations. Determine if geodetic measurements of transient deformation can significantly improve estimates of earthquake probability. Maintain an observational strategy aligned with the target outcomes of this document that includes continuous monitoring, recording of ephemeral observations, focused data collection for use in research, and application-driven data processing and analysis systems. Collaborate on research, development, and operation of affordable, high-precision seafloor geodetic methods that improve earthquake forecasting and event response. Advance computational techniques and instrumentation to enable use of strategies like repeat-pass imagery and low-cost geodetic sensors for earthquake response, monitoring, and research. Engage stakeholders and collaborate with partner institutions to foster operational and research objectives and to safeguard the continued health of geodetic infrastructure upon which we mutually depend. Maintaining a vibrant internal research program provides the foundation by which the EHP can remain an effective and trusted source for earthquake science. Exploiting abundant new data sources, evaluating and assimilating the latest science, and pursuing novel avenues of investigation are means to fulfilling the EHP’s core responsibilities and realizing the important scientific advances envisioned by its scientists. Central to the success of such a research program is engaging personnel with a breadth of competencies and a willingness and ability to adapt these to the program’s evolving priorities, enabling current staff to expand their skills and responsibilities, and planning holistically to meet shared workforce needs. In parallel, collaboration with external partners to support scientific investigations that complement ongoing internal research enables the EHP to strengthen earthquake information products by incorporating alternative perspectives and approaches and to study topics and geographic regions that cannot be adequately covered internally. With commensurate support from technical staff who possess diverse skills, including engineering, information technology, and proficiency in quantitative analysis combined with basic geophysical knowledge, the EHP can achieve the geodetic outcomes identified in this document.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2017

A synoptic view of the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3)

Probabilistic forecasting of earthquake‐producing fault ruptures informs all major decisions aimed at reducing seismic risk and improving earthquake resilience. Earthquake forecasting models rely on two scales of hazard evolution: long‐term (decades to centuries) probabilities of fault rupture, constrained by stress renewal statistics, and short‐term (hours to years) probabilities of distributed seismicity, constrained by earthquake‐clustering statistics. Comprehensive datasets on both hazard scales have been integrated into the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3). UCERF3 is the first model to provide self‐consistent rupture probabilities over forecasting intervals from less than an hour to more than a century, and it is the first capable of evaluating the short‐term hazards that result from multievent sequences of complex faulting. This article gives an overview of UCERF3, illustrates the short‐term probabilities with aftershock scenarios, and draws some valuable scientific conclusions from the modeling results. In particular, seismic, geologic, and geodetic data, when combined in the UCERF3 framework, reject two types of fault‐based models: long‐term forecasts constrained to have local Gutenberg–Richter scaling, and short‐term forecasts that lack stress relaxation by elastic rebound.

Seismological Research Letters↗
USGS2016

Persistent slip rate discrepancies in the eastern California (USA) shear zone

Understanding fault slip rates in the eastern California shear zone (ECSZ) using GPS geodesy is complicated by potentially overlapping strain signals due to many sub-parallel strike-slip faults and by inconsistencies with geologic slip rates. The role of fault system geometry in describing ECSZ deformation may be investigated with total variation regularization, which algorithmically determines a best-fitting geometry from an initial model with numerous faults, constrained by a western United States GPS velocity field. The initial dense model (1) enables construction of the first geodetically constrained block model to include all ECSZ faults with geologic slip rates, allowing direct geologic-geodetic slip rate comparisons, and (2) permits fault system geometries with many active faults that are analogous to distributed interseismic deformation. Beginning with 58 ECSZ blocks, a model containing 10 ECSZ blocks is most consistent with geologic slip rates, reproducing five of 11 within their reported uncertainties. The model fits GPS observations with a mean residual velocity of 1.5 mm/yr. Persistent geologic-geodetic slip rate discrepancies occur on the Calico and Garlock faults, on which we estimate slip rates of 7.6 mm/yr and <2 mm/yr, respectively, indicating that inconsistencies between geology and geodesy may be concentrated on or near these faults and are not due to pervasive distributed deformation in the region. Discrepancies may in part be due to postseismic relaxation following the A.D. 1992 M w 7.3 Landers and 1999 M w 7.1 Hector Mine earthquakes. Otherwise, resolving geologic-geodetic discrepancies would require as much as 11.4 mm/yr of off-fault deformation within <10 km of the main ECSZ faults, with ∼5 mm/yr concentrated near the Calico fault.

California↗
USGS2016

The Eastern California Shear Zone as the northward extension of the southern San Andreas Fault

Cluster analysis offers an agnostic way to organize and explore features of the current GPS velocity field without reference to geologic information or physical models using information only contained in the velocity field itself. We have used cluster analysis of the Southern California Global Positioning System (GPS) velocity field to determine the partitioning of Pacific-North America relative motion onto major regional faults. Our results indicate the large-scale kinematics of the region is best described with two boundaries of high velocity gradient, one centered on the Coachella section of the San Andreas Fault and the Eastern California Shear Zone and the other defined by the San Jacinto Fault south of Cajon Pass and the San Andreas Fault farther north. The ~120&thinsp;km long strand of the San Andreas between Cajon Pass and Coachella Valley (often termed the San Bernardino and San Gorgonio sections) is thus currently of secondary importance and carries lesser amounts of slip over most or all of its length. We show these first order results are present in maps of the smoothed GPS velocity field itself. They are also generally consistent with currently available, loosely bounded geologic and geodetic fault slip rate estimates that alone do not provide useful constraints on the large-scale partitioning we show here. Our analysis does not preclude the existence of smaller blocks and more block boundaries in Southern California. However, attempts to identify smaller blocks along and adjacent to the San Gorgonio section were not successful.

Eastern California Shear Zone↗
USGS2015

Long‐term time‐dependent probabilities for the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3)

The 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP 2014) presents time-dependent earthquake probabilities for the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3). Building on the UCERF3 time-independent model, published previously, renewal models are utilized to represent elastic-rebound-implied probabilities. A new methodology has been developed that solves applicability issues in the previous approach for un-segmented models. The new methodology also supports magnitude-dependent aperiodicity and accounts for the historic open interval on faults that lack a date-of-last-event constraint. Epistemic uncertainties are represented with a logic tree, producing 5,760 different forecasts. Results for a variety of evaluation metrics are presented, including logic-tree sensitivity analyses and comparisons to the previous model (UCERF2). For 30-year M&ge;6.7 probabilities, the most significant changes from UCERF2 are a threefold increase on the Calaveras fault and a threefold decrease on the San Jacinto fault. Such changes are due mostly to differences in the time-independent models (e.g., fault slip rates), with relaxation of segmentation and inclusion of multi-fault ruptures being particularly influential. In fact, some UCERF2 faults were simply too long to produce M 6.7 sized events given the segmentation assumptions in that study. Probability model differences are also influential, with the implied gains (relative to a Poisson model) being generally higher in UCERF3. Accounting for the historic open interval is one reason. Another is an effective 27% increase in the total elastic-rebound-model weight. The exact factors influencing differences between UCERF2 and UCERF3, as well as the relative importance of logic-tree branches, vary throughout the region, and depend on the evaluation metric of interest. For example, M&ge;6.7 probabilities may not be a good proxy for other hazard or loss measures. This sensitivity, coupled with the approximate nature of the model and known limitations, means the applicability of UCERF3 should be evaluated on a case-by-case basis.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2013

Geological and geophysical evaluation of the mechanisms of the great 1899 Yakutat Bay earthquakes

We have used tectonic, geologic, and seismologic observations to reevaluate the mechanisms and seismotectonic significance of the two great ( M w = 8.1 and 8.2) September 1899 Yakutat Bay earthquakes. In their comprehensive study of these earthquakes between 1905 and 1910, Tarr and Martin (1912) showed that these events were accompanied by shoreline changes in Yakutat Bay that ranged from 14.4 m emergence to 2.1 m submergence, uplift of about 1 m at Yakataga 160 km west of Yakutat Bay, and by several zones of surface fissures on land. Although major earthquake faults were not found, Tarr and Martin postulated that the shoreline displacements were caused by vertical movements on a system of concealed steep normal faults and that the fissure zones on ridges were along subsidiary faults. Our geologic studies in the Yakutat Bay region indicate that: (1) the emergent shorelines along Yakutat Bay define a broad upwarp roughly 50 km ́ 30 km that is primarily related to reverse slip on local concealed shallowly dipping thrust faults; (2) the reported subsidence was due largely, or entirely, to nontectonic surficial submergence of unconsolidated deposits; and (3) most, if not all, of the zones of surface fractures related to the 1899 earthquakes are “sackung” that were probably caused by large-scale gravitational slumping of steep slopes, rather than faulting. A small number of early damped seismograms and the vertical uplift data were used to constrain the fault slippage that occurred during the two great earthquakes of 1899. Seismic moments determined from 50-s surface wave amplitudes are ~2 ́x 10 21 N m for these two events, equivalent to M w 8.1. Uplift determined from raised shorelines within Yakutat Bay can be accounted for by the 10 September event alone, and these data can be fit by ~10- to 20-m dip slippage on three dextral oblique thrust faults that dip ~30° northeast or north. Faulting complexity is also shown by the S-wave seismogram of the 10 September shock, which lasted ~3 min and shows at least three distinct long-period pulses. The large seismic moment of the 4 September event and uplift of ~1 m at Yakataga suggest a 150-km westward extension of faulting along the foothills fold-and-thrust zone. Our reassessment suggests that, although some portions of the complex plate boundary zone ruptured in 1899, regional seismic hazard is currently significant. First of all, none of the potentially tsunamigenic offshore thrust faults west of the Pamplona zone slipped in 1899. It is unlikely that all of the onshore thrust faults south of the Chugach–St. Elias thrust fault system did either. Furthermore, more than 100 years of convergence at 48 mm/yr across the region has reloaded faults that slipped in 1899 and added further strains on those that did not. Matters are much less clear for the Yakutat Bay thrusts because although they slipped in 1899, we have no good constraints on the convergence rates across these faults. The most recent pre-1899 uplift event in Yakutat Bay was at least 380 ± 70 years ago.

Alaska↗
USGS2013

Uniform California earthquake rupture forecast, version 3 (UCERF3): the time-independent model

In this report we present the time-independent component of the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3), which provides authoritative estimates of the magnitude, location, and time-averaged frequency of potentially damaging earthquakes in California. The primary achievements have been to relax fault segmentation assumptions and to include multifault ruptures, both limitations of the previous model (UCERF2). The rates of all earthquakes are solved for simultaneously, and from a broader range of data, using a system-level "grand inversion" that is both conceptually simple and extensible. The inverse problem is large and underdetermined, so a range of models is sampled using an efficient simulated annealing algorithm. The approach is more derivative than prescriptive (for example, magnitude-frequency distributions are no longer assumed), so new analysis tools were developed for exploring solutions. Epistemic uncertainties were also accounted for using 1,440 alternative logic tree branches, necessitating access to supercomputers. The most influential uncertainties include alternative deformation models (fault slip rates), a new smoothed seismicity algorithm, alternative values for the total rate of M≥5 events, and different scaling relationships, virtually all of which are new. As a notable first, three deformation models are based on kinematically consistent inversions of geodetic and geologic data, also providing slip-rate constraints on faults previously excluded because of lack of geologic data. The grand inversion constitutes a system-level framework for testing hypotheses and balancing the influence of different experts. For example, we demonstrate serious challenges with the Gutenberg-Richter hypothesis for individual faults. UCERF3 is still an approximation of the system, however, and the range of models is limited (for example, constrained to stay close to UCERF2). Nevertheless, UCERF3 removes the apparent UCERF2 overprediction of M6.5–7 earthquake rates and also includes types of multifault ruptures seen in nature. Although UCERF3 fits the data better than UCERF2 overall, there may be areas that warrant further site-specific investigation. Supporting products may be of general interest, and we list key assumptions and avenues for future model improvements.

California↗
USGS2012

Interseismic deformation at the Nankai Trough, Japan, subduction zone

Uplift along the coast of southwestern Japan following the 1944 Tonankai ( M s = 8.0) and 1946 Nankaido ( M s = 8.2) earthquakes has been inferred from the 1950–1985 tide gage records. Although uplift rates vary with geographic position, the temporal dependence at each site can be described as the superposition of an exponentially decaying (time constant ∼5 years) transient, significant only in the first decade postseismic, and a steady interseismic rate. The steady interseismic uplift rate is defined only over the 1956–1985 interval, but the linearity in time ofthat uplift record is such that uplift over the remainder of the interseismic cycle (∼80 years) might reasonably be expected to occur at the same rate. Moreover, the spatial pattern and magnitude of the steady uplift rate are reasonably close to those predicted by a simple dislocation model of subduction. However, the currently observed steady uplift rate is not consistent with the uplift rate inferred from geodetic leveling for the final half of the previous earthquake cycle. Thus, either the hypothesis of a steady interseismic uplift rate after the first decade postseismic is wrong or the strain accumulation pattern for one earthquake need not be the same as for the preceding earthquake on the same segment.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2012

Illumination of rheological mantle heterogeneity by the M7.2 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake

Major intracontinental strike-slip faults tend to mark boundaries between lithospheric blocks of contrasting mechanical properties along much of their length. Both crustal and mantle heterogeneities can form such boundaries, but the role of crustal versus mantle strength contrasts for localizing strain sufficiently to generate major faults remains unclear. Using the crustal velocity field observed through the Global Positioning System (GPS) in the epicentral area of the M7.2 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake, Baja California, we find that transient deformation observed after the event is anomalously small in areas of relatively high seismic velocity in the shallow upper mantle (∼50 km depth). This pattern is best explained with a laterally heterogeneous viscoelastic structure that mimics the seismic structure. The mantle of the Southern Colorado River Desert (SCRD) and Peninsular Ranges (PR), which bound the fault system to its east and west, respectively, have anomalously high viscosity and seismic velocity. We hypothesize that compared with the rest of the San Andreas fault (SAF) system to its north, the strike-slip fault system in northern Baja California is narrow because of the presence of the PR and SCRD high-viscosity regions which bound it.

Arizona, Baja California, California, Sonora↗
USGS2011

Space geodetic data improve seismic hazard assessment in California: Workshop on incorporating geodetic surface deformation data Into UCERF3; Pomona, California, 1–2 April 2010

A workshop was held to begin scientific consideration of how to incorporate space geodetic constraints on strain rates and fault slip rates into the next generation Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, version 3 (UCERF3), due to be completed in mid-2012. Principal outcomes of the meeting were (1) an assessment of secure science ready for UCERF3 applications within the next year, and (2) an agenda of new research objectives for the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and others in support of UCERF3 and related probabilistic seismic hazard assessments (PSHA). A number of goals potentially achievable within a year were identified, including (1) slip rate and fault locking depth estimates, with uncertainties or ranges, for all major and some minor faults of the extended San Andreas system; (2) strain rate estimates or bounds on rates for selected regions lying off the major faults of the San Andreas system; and (3) corrections or bounds on perturbing effects of postseismic deformation and elastic modulus heterogeneities on the observed Global Positioning System (GPS) velocity field (needed as input to models for estimating fault slip and strain rates in goals 1 and 2 above).

California↗
USGS2011

New strategy needed in earthquake, volcano monitoring

Recent advances in space geodesy provide unprecedented opportunities for measuring and understanding processes related to earthquake occurrence and volcanic eruptions in the United States and elsewhere. The Global Positioning System (GPS) uses Earth-orbiting satellites to obtain relative movements of ground points accurate to a few millimeters, either through periodically repeated surveys or by continuous measurements at permanent sites [ Segall and Davis , 1997]. Satellite interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) uses repeat-pass radar backscatter images of Earth's surface to obtain complete spatial mappings of surface deformation over 100 km × 100 km scenes to centimeter precision [ Massonnet and Feigl , 1998]. During the past 5 years GPS and InSAR increasingly have been applied to local studies of active fault zones and volcanic systems, imaging the sources of deformation buried in Earth's crust and quantifying the hazards they pose to society. The potential now exists to deploy these tools to map and monitor all of the actively deforming western United States, and a new scientific initiative with these goals is under active discussion [ Silver et al , 1998].

Eos Science News↗
USGS2010

On the resolution of shallow mantle viscosity structure using post-earthquake relaxation data: Application to the 1999 Hector Mine, California, earthquake

Most models of lower crust/mantle viscosity inferred from postearthquake relaxation assume one or two uniform-viscosity layers. A few existing models possess apparently significant radially variable viscosity structure in the shallow mantle (e.g., the upper 200 km), but the resolution of such variations is not clear. We use a geophysical inverse procedure to address the resolving power of inferred shallow mantle viscosity structure using postearthquake relaxation data. We apply this methodology to 9 years of GPS-constrained crustal motions after the 16 October 1999 M = 7.1 Hector Mine earthquake. After application of a differencing method to isolate the postearthquake signal from the “background” crustal velocity field, we find that surface velocities diminish from ∼20 mm/yr in the first few months to ≲2 mm/yr after 2 years. Viscoelastic relaxation of the mantle, with a time-dependent effective viscosity prescribed by a Burgers body, provides a good explanation for the postseismic crustal deformation, capturing both the spatial and temporal pattern. In the context of the Burgers body model (which involves a transient viscosity and steady state viscosity), a resolution analysis based on the singular value decomposition reveals that at most, two constraints on depth-dependent steady state mantle viscosity are provided by the present data set. Uppermost mantle viscosity (depth ≲ 60 km) is moderately resolved, but deeper viscosity structure is poorly resolved. The simplest model that explains the data better than that of uniform steady state mantle viscosity involves a linear gradient in logarithmic viscosity with depth, with a small increase from the Moho to 220 km depth. However, the viscosity increase is not statistically significant. This suggests that the depth-dependent steady state viscosity is not resolvably different from uniformity in the uppermost mantle.

California↗
USGS2009

How the continents deform: The evidence from tectonic geodesy

Space geodesy now provides quantitative maps of the surface velocity field within tectonically active regions, supplying constraints on the spatial distribution of deformation, the forces that drive it, and the brittle and ductile properties of continental lithosphere. Deformation is usefully described as relative motions among elastic blocks and is block-like because major faults are weaker than adjacent intact crust. Despite similarities, continental block kinematics differs from global plate tectonics: blocks are much smaller, typically ∼100–1000 km in size; departures from block rigidity are sometimes measurable; and blocks evolve over ∼1–10 Ma timescales, particularly near their often geometrically irregular boundaries. Quantitatively relating deformation to the forces that drive it requires simplifying assumptions about the strength distribution in the lithosphere. If brittle/elastic crust is strongest, interactions among blocks control the deformation. If ductile lithosphere is the stronger, its flow properties determine the surface deformation, and a continuum approach is preferable.

Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences↗
USGS2006

Geodetic observations of post-seismic transients in the context of the earthquake deformation cycle

Satellite geodetic techniques that can measure displacements with millimeter-level accuracy reveal transient signals in the deformation fields produced by both moderate and large earthquakes. These post-seismic signals exhibit characteristic time scales ranging from weeks to decades and distance scales from hundreds of meters to hundreds of kilometers. By considering them in the context of the earthquake deformation cycle, we can test hypotheses about the processes driving them and constrain the rheology of the lithosphere. We discuss three broad categories of mechanism: afterslip in the plane of the co-seismic rupture (analogous to a rubber eraser), fluid flow in the fault zone (analogous to a water-laden sponge), and ductile flow in a weak substrate (analogous to a pot of honey).

Comptes Rendus - Geoscience↗
USGS2002

Magmatic inflation at a dormant stratovolcano: 1996-1998 activity at Mount Peulik volcano, Alaska, revealed by satellite radar interferometry

A series of ERS radar interferograms that collectively span the time interval from July 1992 to August 2000 reveal that a presumed magma body located 6.6 ??? 0.5 km beneath the southwest flank of the Mount Peulik volcano inflated 0.051 ??? 0.005 km3 between October 1996 and September 1998. Peulik has been active only twice during historical time, in 1814 and 1852, and the volcano was otherwise quiescent during the 1990s. The inflation episode spanned at least several months because separate interferograms show that the associated ground deformation was progressive. The average inflation rate of the magma body was ???0.003 km3/month from October 1996 to September 1997, peaked at 0.005 km3/month from 26 June to 9 October 1997, and dropped to ???0.001 km3/month from October 1997 to September 1998. An intense earthquake swarm, including three ML 4.8 - 5.2 events, began on 8 May 1998 near Becharof Lake, ???30 km northwest of Peulik. More than 400 earthquakes with a cumulative moment of 7.15 ?? 1017 N m were recorded in the area through 19 October 1998. Although the inflation and earthquake swarm occurred at about the same time, the static stress changes that we calculated in the epicentral area due to inflation beneath Peulik appear too small to provide a causal link. The 1996-1998 inflation episode at Peulik confirms that satellite radar interferometry can be used to detect magma accumulation beneath dormant volcanoes at least several months before other signs of unrest are apparent. This application represents a first step toward understanding the eruption cycle at Peulik and other stratovolcanoes with characteristically long repose periods.

Alaska↗
USGS2002

35 - Strength and energetics of active fault zones

The strength of active fault zones, i.e., the shear stress level required to cause fault slip, is fundamental to understanding the physics of earthquakes and to assessing earthquake hazard. Although many researchers have concluded that fault zones are weak (shear stresses 10 MPa or less averaged between 0 and ˜20 km depth), others maintain that faults are strong (˜100 MPa average of an approximate linear increase with depth). Thus, despite 30 y of dedicated research, relevant data remain inconclusive and fault strength remains uncertain by an order of magnitude. In part, this is because the main source of energy release in earthquakes is at depths greater than 5 km, inaccessible to direct instrumental observation. Very large earthquakes rupture to the Earth's surface where direct observation of the shallow rupture process is possible. However, the rupture characteristics at shallow depth may differ from those at seismogenic depths. To date no great ( M ≥ 7.75) earthquakes have occurred within a network of modern strong-motion instruments, but the large, well-recorded 1999 earthquakes in Turkey and Taiwan, both M = 7.6, show that this data gap is rapidly being filled. Furthermore, shear stress changes at the earthquake source (and the resulting seismic waves) are nearly linear perturbations of the absolute stress field. Thus, an unknown absolute background stress does not greatly affect the basic characteristics of the observed low frequency seismic waves and the observed geodetic deformation. Other, less-direct data must then be used to infer the physical state and ambient stress levels on active faults. This chapter discusses available evidence and current ideas about fault zone strength and energetics. In our review we begin by outlining the general physical conditions prevailing in the Earth around active faults and summarize the generally agreed upon observational features of faulting and earthquake occurrence ( Section 2 ). In doing so we make as few assumptions as possible, because making uncertain assumptions may lead to logical inconsistencies and apparent paradoxes. For example, the absence of a measurable, frictionally generated heat flow anomaly near active faults, the so-called stress-heat flow paradox, rests upon assumptions that must somehow be incorrect. We wish to avoid such inconsistencies and to begin we introduce the observations and briefly state what they imply about fault zones. Subsequently, in Sections 3–8 , we place these observations in an interpretative context and show how they have been used to infer various measures of fault shear stress. Section 9 summarizes our assessment of the average shear stress state near faults, argues for the general importance of stress heterogeneity in faulting processes, and discusses its implications.

International Geophysics↗
USGS2001

Geophysics: Silent slip on the Cascadia subduction interface

G eodetic satellites of the Global Positioning System (GPS) now permit continuous recording of surface motions around earthquake faults and volcanoes with millimeter precision. Data from distinct points on Earth's surface can be combined to infer the locations of the sources of deformation at depth in the crust. These data are radically altering our understanding of earthquake processes, justifying ambitious new sensor arrays to image active deformation sources in Earth's crust. In recent years, large continuous GPS arrays have been deployed in Japan and southern California, and smaller networks have been installed in other seismically active regions. On page 1525 of this issue ( 1 ), Dragert et al. provide a glimpse of the kinds of insights we can expect from these arrays.

Cascadia subduction zone↗