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W.D. Stuart

Publications and source records attributed to W.D. Stuart.

10 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2007

Propagation of the Hawaiian-Emperor volcano chain by Pacific plate cooling stress

The lithosphere crack model, the main alternative to the mantle plume model for age-progressive magma emplacement along the Hawaiian-Emperor volcano chain, requires the maximum horizontal tensile stress to be normal to the volcano chain. However, published stress fields calculated from Pacific lithosphere tractions and body forces (e.g., subduction pull, basal drag, lithosphere density) are not optimal for southeast propagation of a stress-free, vertical tensile crack coincident with the Hawaiian segment of the Hawaiian-Emperor chain. Here we calculate the thermoelastic stress rate for present-day cooling of the Pacific plate using a spherical shell finite element representation of the plate geometry. We use observed seafloor isochrons and a standard model for lithosphere cooling to specify the time dependence of vertical temperature profiles. The calculated stress rate multiplied by a time increment (e.g., 1 m.y.) then gives a thermoelastic stress increment for the evolving Pacific plate. Near the Hawaiian chain position, the calculated stress increment in the lower part of the shell is tensional, with maximum tension normal to the chain direction. Near the projection of the chain trend to the southeast beyond Hawaii, the stress increment is compressive. This incremental stress field has the form necessary to maintain and propagate a tensile crack or similar lithosphere flaw and is thus consistent with the crack model for the Hawaiian volcano chain.

Special Paper of the Geological Society of America↗
USGS2001

Geologic structures related to New Madrid earthquakes near Memphis, Tennessee, based on gravity and magnetic interpretations

New inversions of gravity and magnetic data in the region north of memphis. Tennessee, and south of latitude 36?? define boundaries of regional structures and igneous complexes in the upper crust. Microseismicity patterns near interpreted boundaries suggest that igneous complexes influence the locations of microseismicity. A weak seismicity cluster occurs near one intrusion (Covington pluton), at the intersection of the southwest margin of the Missouri batholith and the southeast margin of the Reelfoot rift. A narrow seismicity trend along the Reelfoot rift axis becomes diffuse near a second intrusion (Osceola intrusive complex) and changes direction to an area along the northwest flank of the intrusion. The axial seismicity trend also contains a tight cluster of earthquakes located just outside the Osceola intrusive complex. The mechanical explanation of the two seismicity patterns is uncertain, but the first cluster may be caused by stress concentration due to the high elastic stiffness and strength of the Covington intrusion. The spatially changing seismicity pattern near the Osceola complex may be caused by the preceding factors plus interaction with faulting along the rift axis. The axial seismicity strand itself is one of several connected and interacting active strands that may produce stress concentrations at strand ends and junctions. The microseismicity clusters at the peripheries of the two intrusions lead us to conclude that these stress concentrations or stressed volumes may be locations of future moderate to large earthquakes near Memphis. Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

Engineering Geology↗
USGS2001

GPS constraints on M 7-8 earthquake recurrence times for the New Madrid seismic zone

Newman et al. ( 1999 ) estimate the time interval between the 1811–1812 earthquake sequence near New Madrid, Missouri and a future similar sequence to be at least 2,500 years, an interval significantly longer than other recently published estimates. To calculate the recurrence time, they assume that slip on a vertical half-plane at depth contributes to the current interseismic motion of GPS benchmarks. Compared to other plausible fault models, the half-plane model gives nearly the maximum rate of ground motion for the same interseismic slip rate. Alternative models with smaller interseismic fault slip area can satisfy the present GPS data by having higher slip rate and thus can have earthquake recurrence times much less than 2,500 years.

Arkansas, Illinois, Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee↗
USGS1997

Stressing of the New Madrid seismic zone by a lower crust detachment fault

A new mechanical model for the cause of the New Madrid seismic zone in the central United States is analyzed. The model contains a subhorizontal detachment fault which is assumed to be near the domed top surface of locally thickened anomalous lower crust (“rift pillow”). Regional horizontal compression induces slip on the fault, and the slip creates a stress concentration in the upper crust above the rift pillow dome. In the coseismic stage of the model earthquake cycle, where the three largest magnitude 7–8 earthquakes in 1811–1812 are represented by a single model mainshock on a vertical northeast trending fault, the model mainshock has a moment equivalent to a magnitude 8 event. During the interseismic stage, corresponding to the present time, slip on the detachment fault exerts a right-lateral shear stress on the locked vertical fault whose failure produces the model mainshock. The sense of shear is generally consistent with the overall sense of slip of 1811–1812 and later earthquakes. Predicted rates of horizontal strain at the ground surface are about 10 −7 year −1 and are comparable to some observed rates. The model implies that rift pillow geometry is a significant influence on the maximum possible earthquake magnitude.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS1996

Quantitative investigations of the Missouri gravity low: A possible expression of a large, Late Precambrian batholith intersecting the New Madrid seismic zone

Analysis of gravity and magnetic anomaly data helps characterize the geometry and physical properties of the source of the Missouri gravity low, an important cratonic feature of substantial width (about 125 km) and length (> 600 km). Filtered anomaly maps show that this prominent feature extends NW from the Reelfoot rift to the Midcontinent Rift System. Geologic reasoning and the simultaneous inversion of the gravity and magnetic data lead to an interpretation that the gravity anomaly reflects an upper crustal, 11-km-thick batholith with either near vertical or outward dipping boundaries. Considering the modeled characteristics of the batholith, structural fabric of Missouri, and relations of the batholith with plutons and regions of alteration, a tectonic model for the formation of the batholith is proposed. The model includes a mantle plume that heated the crust during Late Precambrian and melted portions of lower and middle crust, from which the low-density granitic rocks forming the batholith were partly derived. The batholith, called the Missouri batholith, may be currently related to the release of seismic energy in the New Madrid seismic zone (earthquake concentrations occur at the intersection of the Missouri batholith and the New Madrid seismic zone). Three qualitative mechanical models are suggested to explain this relationship with seismicity. Copyright 1996 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS1996

Cyclic stressing and seismicity at strongly coupled subduction zones

We use the finite element method to analyze stress variations in and near a strongly coupled subduction zone during an earthquake cycle. Deformation is assumed to be uniform along strike (plane strain on a cross section normal to the trench axis), and periodic earthquake slip is imposed consistent with the long-term rate of plate convergence and degree of coupling. Simulations of stress and displacement rate fields represent periodic fluctuations in time superimposed on an average field. The oceanic plate, descending slab, and continental lithosphere are assumed here to respond elastically to these fluctuations, and the remaining mantle under and between plates is assumed to respond as Maxwell viscoelastic. In the first part of the analysis we find that computed stress fluctuations in space and time are generally consistent with observed earthquake mechanism variations with time since a great thrust event. In particular, trench-normal extensional earthquakes tend to occur early in the earthquake cycle toward the outer rise but occur more abundantly late in the cycle in the subducting slab downdip of the main thrust zone. Compressional earthquakes, when they occur at all, have the opposite pattern. Our results suggest also that the actual timing of extensional outer rise events is controlled by the rheology of the shallow aseismic portion of the thrust interface. The second part of the analysis shows the effects of mantle relaxation on the rate of ground surface deformation during the earthquake cycle. Models without relaxation predict a strong overall compressional strain rate in the continental plate above the main thrust zone, with the strain rate constant between mainshocks. However with significant relaxation present, a localized region of unusually low compressional, or even slightly extensional, strain rate develops along the surface of the continental plate above and somewhat inland from the downdip edge of the locked main thrust zone. The low strain rate starts in the middle or late part of the cycle, depending on position. This result suggests that the negligible or small contraction measured on the Shumagin Islands, Alaska, during 1980 to 1991, may not invalidate an interpretation of that region as being a moderately coupled subduction zone. In contrast, mantle relaxation causes only modest temporal nonuniformity of uplift rates in the overriding plate and of extensional stress rates in the subducting plate, even when the Maxwell time is an order of magnitude less than the recurrence interval.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS1991

Seismic quiescence at Parkfield due to detachment faulting

On the San Andreas fault near Parkfield, California, rates of seismicity 1,2 and geodetic line shortening 3,4 have been lower since 1986 than before. Wyss et al . 1,3 interpret the rate decreases as precursors to an imminent moderate earthquake (magnitude M = 5.5−6) and estimate the earthquake time to be March 1991 ± 1 yr. The earthquake was previously predicted to occur in 1988 ± 5 yr based on five of six similar earthquakes which occurred at intervals ∼ 22 yr, the last one in 1966 5 . Here I present a model that attributes the rate changes to the initiation of slip on a subhorizontal detachment fault under the pending rupture area. In this model, the slip starts late in the seismic cycle, and diminishes the loading rate on the nearby San Andreas, thus acting as a buffer.

California↗
USGS1985

Instability model for recurring large and great earthquakes in southern California

The locked section of the San Andreas fault in southern California has experienced a number of large and great earthquakes in the past, and thus is expected to have more in the future. To estimate the location, time, and slip of the next few earthquakes, an earthquake instability model is formulated. The model is similar to one recently developed for moderate earthquakes on the San Andreas fault near Parkfield, California. In both models, unstable faulting (the earthquake analog) is caused by failure of all or part of a patch of brittle, strain-softening fault zone. In the present model the patch extends downward from the ground surface to about 12 km depth, and extends 500 km along strike from Parkfield to the Salton Sea. The variation of patch strength along strike is adjusted by trial until the computed sequence of instabilities matches the sequence of large and great earthquakes since a.d. 1080 reported by Sieh and others. The last earthquake was the M=8.3 Ft. Tejon event in 1857. The resulting strength variation has five contiguous sections of alternately low and high strength. From north to south, the approximate locations of the sections are: (1) Parkfield to Bitterwater Valley, (2) Bitterwater Valley to Lake Hughes, (3) Lake Hughes to San Bernardino, (4) San Bernardino to Palm Springs, and (5) Palm Springs to the Salton Sea. Sections 1, 3, and 5 have strengths between 53 and 88 bars; sections 2 and 4 have strengths between 164 and 193 bars. Patch section ends and unstable rupture ends usually coincide, although one or more adjacent patch sections may fail unstably at once. The model predicts that the next sections of the fault to slip unstably will be 1, 3, and 5; the order and dates depend on the assumed length of an earthquake rupture in about 1700. ?? 1985 Birkha??user Verlag.

Pure and Applied Geophysics PAGEOPH↗
USGS1979

Strain-softening instability model for the San Fernando earthquake

Changes in the ground elevation observed before and immediately after the 1971 San Fernando, California, earthquake are consistent with a theoretical model in which fault zone rocks are strain-softening after peak stress. The model implies that the slip rate of the fault increased to about 0.1 meter per year near the focus before the earthquake.

California↗