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W. Thatcher

Publications and source records attributed to W. Thatcher.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
USGS2001

Mantle flow beneath a continental strike-slip fault: Postseismic deformation after the 1999 Hector Mine earthquake

Two recent large earthquakes in the Mojave Desert, California - the magnitude 7.3 1992 Landers and magnitude 7.1 1999 Hector Mine earthquakes - have each been followed by elevated crustal strain rates over periods of months and years. Geodetic data collected after the Hector Mine earthquake exhibit a temporally decaying horizontal velocity field and a quadrant uplift pattern opposite to that expected for localized shear beneath the earthquake rupture. We interpret the origin of this accelerated crustal deformation to be vigorous flow in the upper mantle in response to the stress changes generated by the earthquake. Our results suggest that transient flow in the upper mantle is a fundamental component of the earthquake cycle and that the lower crust is a coherent stress guide coupling the upper crust with the upper mantle.

Science↗
USGS2000

Aseismic inflation of Westdahl volcano, Alaska, revealed by satellite radar interferometry

Westdahl volcano, located at the west end of Unimak Island in the central Aleutian volcanic arc, Alaska, is a broad shield that produced moderate-sized eruptions in 1964, 1978-79, and 1991-92. Satellite radar interferometry detected about 17 cm of volcano-wide inflation from September 1993 to October 1998. Multiple independent interferograms reveal that the deformation rate has not been steady; more inflation occurred from 1993 to 1995 than from 1995 to 1998. Numerical modeling indicates that a source located about 9 km beneath the center of the volcano inflated by about 0.05 km3 from 1993 to 1998. On the basis of the timing and volume of recent eruptions at Westdahl and the fact that it has been inflating for more than 5 years, the next eruption can be expected within the next several years.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2000

Studies of volcanoes of Alaska by satellite radar interferometry

Interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) has provided a new imaging geodesy technique to measure the deformation of volcanoes at tens-of-meter horizontal resolution with centimeter to subcentimeter vertical precision. The two-dimensional surface deformation data enables the construction of detailed numerical models allowing the study of magmatic and tectonic processes beneath volcanoes. This paper summarizes our recent: InSAR studies over the Alaska-Aleutian volcanoes, which include New Trident, Okmok, Akutan, Augustine, Shishaldin, and Westdahl volcanoes. The first InSAR surface deformation over the Alaska volcanoes was applied to New Trident. Preliminary InSAR study suggested that New Trident volcano experienced several centimeters inflation from 1993 to 1995. Using the InSAR technique, we studied the 1997 eruption of Okmok. We have measured ???1.4 m deflation during the eruption, ???20 cm pre-eruptive inflation during 1992 to 1995, and >10 cm post-eruptive inflation within a year after the eruption, and modeled the deformations using Mogi sources. We imaged the ground surface deformation associated with the 1996 seismic crisis over Akutan volcano. Although seismic swarm did not result in an eruption, we found that the western part of the volcano uplifted ???60 cm while the eastern part of the island subsided. The majority of the complex deformation field at the Akutan volcano was modeled by dike intrusion and Mogi inflation sources. Our InSAR results also indicate that the pyroclastic flows from last the last eruption have been undergoing contraction/subsidence at a rate of about 3 cm per year since 1992. InSAR measured no surface deformation before and during the 1999 eruption of Shishaldin and suggested the eruption may be a type of open system. Finally, we applied satellite radar interferometry to Westdahl volcano which erupted 1991 and has been quiet since. We discovered this volcano had inflated about 15 cm from 1993 to 1998. In summary, satellite radar interferometry can not only be used to study a volcanic eruption, but also to detect aseismic deformation at quiescent volcanoes preceding a seismic swarm; it is a useful technique to study volcanic eruptions as well as to guide scientists to better focus their monitoring efforts.

Alaska↗
USGS1999

Renewed uplift at the Yellowstone caldera measured by leveling surveys and satellite radar interferometry

A first-order leveling survey across the northeast part of the Yellowstone caldera in September 1998 showed that the central caldera floor near Le Hardy Rapids rose 24±5 mm relative to the caldera rim at Lake Butte since the previous survey in September 1995. Annual surveys along the same traverse from 1985 to 1995 tracked progressive subsidence near Le Hardy Rapids at an average rate of –19±1 mm/year. Earlier, less frequent surveys measured net uplift in the same area during 1923–1976 (14±1 mm/year) and 1976–1984 (22±1 mm/year). The resumption of uplift following a decade of subsidence was first detected by satellite synthetic aperture radar interferometry, which revealed approximately 15 mm of uplift in the vicinity of Le Hardy Rapids from July 1995 to June 1997. Radar interferograms show that the center of subsidence shifted from the Sour Creek resurgent dome in the northeast part of the caldera during August 1992 to June 1993 to the Mallard Lake resurgent dome in the southwest part during June 1993 to August 1995. Uplift began at the Sour Creek dome during August 1995 to September 1996 and spread to the Mallard Lake dome by June 1997. The rapidity of these changes and the spatial pattern of surface deformation suggest that ground movements are caused at least in part by accumulation and migration of fluids in two sill-like bodies at 5–10 km depth, near the interface between Yellowstone's magmatic and deep hydrothermal systems.

Bulletin of Volcanology↗
USGS1999

Present-day deformation across the Basin and Range Province, western United States

The distribution of deformation within the Basin and Range province was determined from 1992, 1996, and 1998 surveys of a dense, 800-kilometer- aperture, Global Positioning System network, Internal deformation generally follows the pattern of Holocene fault distribution and is concentrated near the western extremity of the province, with lesser amounts focused near the eastern boundary. Little net deformation occurs across the central 500 kilometers of the network in western Utah and eastern Nevada. Concentration of deformation adjacent to the rigid Sierra Nevada block indicates that external plate-driving forces play an important role in driving deformation, modulating the extensional stress field generated by internal buoyancy forces that are due to lateral density gradients and topography near the province boundaries.

Science↗
USGS1998

Ductile shear zones beneath strike-slip faults: Implications for the thermomechanics of the San Andreas fault zone

We have carried out two-dimensional (2-D) numerical experiments on the bulk flow of a layer of fluid that is driven in a strike-slip sense by constant velocities applied at its boundaries. The fluid has the (linearized) conventional rheology assumed to apply to lower crust/upper mantle rocks. The temperature dependence of the effective viscosity of the fluid and the shear heating that accompanies deformation have been incorporated into the calculations, as has thermal conduction in an overlying crustal layer. Two end-member boundary conditions have been considered, corresponding to a strong upper crust driving a weaker ductile substrate and a strong ductile layer driving a passive, weak crust. In many cases of practical interest, shear heating is concentrated close to the axial plane of the shear zone for either boundary condition. For these cases, the resulting steady state temperature field is well approximated by a cylindrical heat source embedded in a conductive half-space at a depth corresponding to the top of the fluid layer. This approximation, along with the application of a theoretical result for one-dimensional shear zones, permits us to obtain simple analytical approximations to the thermal effects of 2-D ductile shear zones for a range of assumed rheologies and crustal geotherms, making complex numerical calculations unnecessary. Results are compared with observable effects on heat flux near the San Andreas fault using constraints on the slip distribution across the entire fault system. Ductile shearing in the lower crust or upper mantle can explain the observed increase in surface heat flux southeast of the Mendocino triple junction and match the amplitude of the regional heat flux anomaly in the California Coast Ranges. Because ductile dissipation depends only weakly on slip rate, faults moving only a few millimeters per year can be important heat sources, and the superposition of effects of localized ductile shearing on both currently active and now inactive strands of the San Andreas system can explain the breadth of the heat flux anomaly across central California.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS1997

Crustal deformation at long Valley Caldera, eastern California, 1992-1996 inferred from satellite radar interferometry

Satellite radar interferometric images of Long Valley caldera show a pattern of surface deformation that resembles that expected from analysis of an extensive suite of ground-based geodetic data. Images from 2 and 4 year intervals respectively, are consistent with uniform movement rates determined from leveling surveys. Synthetic interferograms generated from ellipsoidal-inclusion source models based on inversion of the ground-based data show generally good agreement with the observed images. Two interferograms show evidence for a magmatic source southwest of the caldera in a region not covered by ground measurements. Poorer image quality in the 4 year interferogram indicates that temporal decorrelation of surface radar reflectors is progressively degrading the fringe pattern in the Long Valley region.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS1997

Resolution of fault slip along the 470-km-long rupture of the great 1906 San Francisco earthquake and its implications

Data from all available triangulation networks affected by the 1906 earthquake have been combined to assess the trade-off between slip resolution and its uncertainty and to construct a conservative image of coseismic slip along the rupture. Because of varying network aperture and station density, slip resolution is very uneven. Although slip is determined within uncertainties of ??1.0 m along 60% of the fault, constraints are poor on the remaining, mostly offshore portions of the rupture. Slip decreases from maxima of 8.6 and 7.5 m at Shelter Cove and Tomales Bay to 4.5 m near Mount Tamalpais and 2.7 m at Loma Prieta. The geodetically derived slip distribution is in poor agreement with estimates based on analysis of S wave seismograms, probably because these waves register only 20-30% of the total seismic moment obtained from longer-period surface waves. Consideration of a range of fault geometries for 1906 slip near Loma Prieta indicates right-lateral motions lie between 2.3 and 3.1 m. These values are considerably greater than the 1.5 m of measured surface slip on which several assessments of high earthquake hazard for this fault segment were based. This factor, along with the absence of 1989 slippage where 1906 surface slip was used to make the forecasts, casts doubt on some claims of success in predicting the 1989 M = 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS1996

Detection of postseismic fault-zone collapse following the Landers earthquake

Stress changes caused by fault movement in an earthquake induce transient aseismic crustal movements in the earthquake source region that continue for months to decades following large events. These motions reflect aseismic adjustments of the fault zone and/or bulk deformation of the surroundings in response to applied stresses, and supply information regarding the inelastic behaviour of the Earth's crust. These processes are imperfectly understood because it is difficult to infer what occurs at depth using only surface measurements, which are in general poorly sampled. Here we push satellite radar interferometry to near its typical artefact level, to obtain a map of the postseismic deformation field in the three years following the 28 June 1992 Landers, California earthquake. From the map, we deduce two distinct types of deformation: afterslip at depth on the fault that ruptured in the earthquake, and shortening normal to the fault zone. The latter movement may reflect the closure of dilatant cracks and fluid expulsion from a transiently over-pressured fault zone.

Nature↗
USGS1994

Geodetic slip rate for the eastern California shear zone and the recurrence time of Mojave desert earthquakes

Where the San Andreas fault passes along the southwestern margin of the Mojave desert, it exhibits a large change in trend, and the deformation associated with the Pacific/North American plate boundary is distributed broadly over a complex shear zone. The importance of understanding the partitioning of strain across this region, especially to the east of the Mojave segment of the San Andreas in a region known as the eastern California shear zone (ECSZ), was highlighted by the occurrence (on 28 June 1992) of the magnitude 7.3 Landers earthquake in this zone. Here we use geodetic observations in the central Mojave desert to obtain new estimates for the rate and distribution of strain across a segment of the ECSZ, and to determine a coseismic strain drop of ~770 ??rad for the Landers earthquake. From these results we infer a strain energy recharge time of 3,500-5,000 yr for a Landers-type earthquake and a slip rate of ~12 mm yr-1 across the faults of the central Mojave. The latter estimate implies that a greater fraction of plate motion than heretofore inferred from geodetic data is accommodated across the ECSZ.

Nature↗
USGS1991

Fault orientations in extensional and conjugate strike-slip environments and their implications

Seismically active conjugate strike-slip faults in California and Japan typically have mutually orthogonal right- and left-lateral fault planes. Normal- fault dips at earthquake nucleation depths are concentrated between 40° and 50°. The observed orientations and their strong clustering are surprising, because conventional faulting theory suggests fault initiation with conjugate 60° and 120° intersecting planes and 60° normal-fault dip or fault reactivation with a broad range of permitted orientations. The observations place new constraints on the mechanics of fault initiation, rotation, and evolutionary development. We speculate that the data could be explained by fault rotation into the observed orientations and deactivation for greater rotation or by formation of localized shear zones beneath the brittle-ductile transition in Earth's crust. Initiation as weak frictional faults seems unlikely.

Geology↗
USGS1989

Earthquake recurrence and risk assessment in circum-Pacific seismic gaps

THE development of the concept of seismic gaps, regions of low earthquake activity where large events are expected, has been one of the notable achievements of seismology and plate tectonics. Its application to long-term earthquake hazard assessment continues to be an active field of seismological research. Here I have surveyed well documented case histories of repeated rupture of the same segment of circum-Pacific plate boundary and characterized their general features. I find that variability in fault slip and spatial extent of great earthquakes rupturing the same plate boundary segment is typical rather than exceptional but sequences of major events fill identified seismic gaps with remarkable order. Earthquakes are concentrated late in the seismic cycle and occur with increasing size and magnitude. Furthermore, earthquake rupture starts near zones of concentrated moment release, suggesting that high-slip regions control the timing of recurrent events. The absence of major earthquakes early in the seismic cycle indicates a more complex behaviour for lower-slip regions, which may explain the observed cycle-to-cycle diversity of gap-filling sequences.

Nature↗
USGS1988

Scientific goals of the Parkfield earthquake prediction experiment

Several unique circumstances of the Parkfield experiment provide unprecedented opportunities for significant advances in understanding the mechanics of earthquakes. to our knowledge, there is no other seismic zone anywhere where the time, place, and magnitude of an impending earthquake are specified as precisely. Moreover, the epicentral region is located on continental crust, is readily accessible, and can support a range of dense monitoring networks that are sited either on or very close to the expected rupture surface. As a result, the networks located at Parkfield are several orders of magnitude more sensitive than any previously deployed for monitoring earthquake precursors (a preearthquake change in strain, seismicity, and other geophysical parameters). In this respect the design of the Parkfield experiment resembles the rationale for constructing a new, more powerful nuclear particle accelerator:in both cases increased capabilities will test existing theories, reveal new phenomena, and suggest new research directions.

Earthquakes & Volcanoes (USGS)↗
USGS1983

Correlation of changes in gravity, elevation, and strain in southern California

Measurements made once or twice a year from 1977 through 1982 show large correlated changes in gravity, elevation, and strain in several southern California networks. Precise gravity surveys indicate changes of as much as 25 microgals between surveys 6 months apart. Repeated surveys show that annual elevation changes as large as 100 millimeters occur along baselines 40 to 100 kilometers long. Laser-ranging surveys reveal coherent changes in areal strain of 1 to 2 parts per million occurred over much of southern California during 1978 and 1979. Although the precision of these measuring systems has been questioned, the rather good agreement among them suggests that the observed changes reflect true crustal deformation.

California↗
USGS1979

Initiation and development of the southern California uplift along its northern margin

Analysis of three first-order leveling lines that traverse the White Wolf fault (site of the 1952 M = 7.7 earthquake), each resurveyed nine times between 1926 and 1974, reveals probable preseismic tilting, major coseismic movements, and a spatial association between these movements and the subsequently recognized southern California uplift. In examining the vertical control record, we have both searched for evidence of systematic errors and excluded from consideration portions of the lines contaminated by subsurface fluid and gas extraction. Movements have been referred to an invariant datum based on the 1926 position of tidal BM 8 in San Pedro, corrected for subsequent eustatic sea-level change. An 8 μrad up-to-the-north preseismic tilt (6 cm/7.5 km) was apparently recorded on two adjacent line segments within 10 km of the 1952 epicenter between 1942 and 1947. It is possible, however, that this tilt was in part caused by extraction-induced subsidence at one of the six releveled benchmarks. Data also show evidence of episodic tilts that are not earthquake related. At the junction of the Garlock and San Andreas faults, for example, an ≥5 μrad up-to-the-north tilt (7.2 cm/≤16 km) took place between Lebec and Grapevine within three months during 1964. Comparison of the 1947 and 1953 surveys, which includes the coseismic interval, shows that the SW-fault end (nearest the epicenter) and the central fault reach sustained four times the uplift recorded at the NE end of the fault (+72 cm SW, +53 cm Central, +16 cm NE). A regional postseismic uplift of 4 cm extended ≥25 km to either side of the fault after the main event, from 1953 to 1956. An interval of relative quiescence followed at least through 1959, in which the elevation change did not exceed ±3 cm. The detailed pattern of aseismic uplift demonstrates that movement proceeded in space—time pulses: one half of the uplift at the SW-fault end and extending southward occurred between 1959 and 1961, one half of the uplift at the NE-fault end and extending eastward occurred between 1961 and 1965, while the central fault reach sustained successive pulses of subsidence, uplift, and collapse (−4 cm, 1953–1960; +7 cm, 1960–1965; −2 cm, 1965–1970). In addition, the number of aftershocks concentrated near the fault ends increased in the NE relative to the SW from 1952 to 1974. These observations suggest that the aseismic uplift may have migrated northeastward from 1959 to 1965 at an approximate rate of 7–16 km/yr. Evidence for a mechanical coupling between the earthquake and the subsequent aseismic uplift is equivocal. At both fault ends, the major NWbounding flexure or tilted front of the southern California uplift is spatially coincident with the coseismic flexure that preceded it. In addition, the postulated migration of vertical deformation is similar to the 1952 seismic event in which the rupture initiated at the SW end of the fault and then propagated to the NE-fault end. However, the spatial distribution of aseismic uplift, nearly identical at both fault ends and to the south and east, and near zero in the central fault reach, is distinctly different from the nonuniform and localized coseismic deformation.

California↗
USGS1976

Episodic strain accumulation in Southern California

Reexamination of horizontal geodetic data in the region of recently discovered aseismic uplift has demonstrated that equally unusual horizontal crustal deformation accompanied the development of the uplift. During this time interval compressive strains were oriented roughly normal to the San Andreas fault, suggesting that the uplift produced little shear strain accumulation across this fault. On the other hand, the orientation of the anomalous shear straining is consistent with strain accumulation across northdipping range-front thrusts like the San Fernando fault. Accordingly, the horizontal and vertical crustal deformation disclosed by geodetic observation is interpreted as a short epoch of rapid strain accumulation on these frontal faults. If this interpretation is correct, thrust-type earthquakes will eventually release the accumulated strains, but the geodetic data examined here cannot be used to estimate when these events might occur. However, observation of an unusual sequence of tilts prior to 1971 on a level line lying to the north of the magnitude 6.4 San Fernando earthquake offers some promise for precursor monitoring. The data are adequately explained by a simple model of up-dip aseismic slip propagation toward the 1971 epicentral region. These observations and the simple model that accounts for them suggest a conceptually straightforward monitoring scheme to search for similar uplift and tilt precursors within the uplifted region. Such premonitory effects could be detected by a combination of frequently repeated short (30 to 70 km in length) level line measurements, precise gravity traverses, and continuously recording gravimeters sited to the north of the active frontal thrust faults. Once identified, such precursors could be closely followed in space and time, and might then provide effective warnings of impending potentially destructive earthquakes.

California↗
USGS1976

How did the 1906 San Francisco earthquake occur?

The 1906 earthquake in San Francisco was of magnitude 8.3 and was the most destructive in the history of the United States. Because this part of California is now much more heavily populated, intense studies have been made of the 1906 earthquake in an effort to understand how it occurred and, more importantly, what likelihood there is of future large earthquakes near San Francisco. Great emphasis has been put on geodetic data- ground surveys of the region have been made frequently since 1853 (see "The California geodimeter network: measuring movement along the San Andreas fault" by J.C Savage, Earthquake Information Bulletin, vol. 6 no. 3, May-June 1974).

California↗