Geology topics
Publications and source records attributed to W. H. Bakun.
Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) data are used by Bakun (in preparation) to estimate the location and moment magnitude M of California north-coast earthquakes from MMI observations only. The MMI data and site corrections used by Bakun (in preparation) are listed in this Open-file Report. This report is also accessible at http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/~bakun/.
The confidence parameters in Table 5 and Figures 7 -12 in Bakun and Wentworth (1997) were calculated using the site corrections for MI(4) rather than Bakun and Wentworth's (1997) preferred relation MI(3). The conclusions of Bakun and Wentworth (1997) are not changed by these corrections. The corrected Table 5 and Figures are in this report and at http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/~bakun/.
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A prototype early warning system to provide San Francisco and Oakland, California a few tens-of-seconds warning of incoming strong ground shaking from already-occurred M ≧ 3.7 aftershocks of the magnitude 7.1 17 October 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake was operational on 28 October 1989. The prototype system consisted of four components: ground motion sensors in the epicentral area, a central receiver, a radio repeater, and radio receivers. One of the radio receivers was deployed at the California Department of Transportation ( CALTRANS ) headquarters at the damaged Cypress Street section of the I-880 freeway in Oakland, California on 28 October 1989 and provided about 20 sec of warning before shaking from the M 4.5 Loma Prieta aftershock that occurred on 2 November 1989 at 0550 UTC. In its first 6 months of operation, the system generated triggers for all 12 M > 3.7 aftershocks for which trigger documentation is preserved, did not trigger on any M ≦ 3.6 aftershocks, and produced one false trigger as a result of a now-corrected single point of failure design flaw. Because the prototype system demonstrated that potentially useful warnings of strong shaking from aftershocks are feasible, the USGS has completed a portable early warning system for aftershocks that can be deployed anywhere.
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The geophysical instrumentation operated by the U.S Geological Survey and others near Parkfield is designed to monitor ongoing tectonic processes that generate earthquakes and to record the strong shaking that results from larger shocks and its effects. this discussion focuses on the former objectives; the latter is discussed in the next section "Ground Shaking and Engineering Studies on the Parkfield Section of the San Andreas Fault Zone." Because scientists expect the anticipated earthquake to resemble the historic Parkfield earthquakes, and in particular that in 1966, the data from the 1966 shock were used to site instruments for optimun benefit before, during, and after the next shock. the primary feature used for siting was the "1966 rupture zone," which is shown as the orange fault traces on the maps in this section. This zone defines the extent of surface tectonic cracks in 1966 and includes the source areas for fore shocks to the 1934 and 1966 earthquakes (north end of the zone) as well as for apparent precursory fault creep in 1966 (near center of the zone). Scientists believe that if precursors to the next shock are observed, they most likely will be near the 1966 rupture zone.
Seismicity on the San Andreas fault near Parkfield occurs in a tectonic section that differs markedly from neighboring sections along the San Andreas to the northwest and to the southeast. Northwest of the Parkfield section, small shocks (magnitudes of less than 4) do occur frequently, but San Andreas movement occurs predominantly as aseismic fault creep; shocks of magnitude 6 and larger are unknown, and little, if any, strain is accumulating. In contrast, very few small earthquakes and no aseismic slip have been observed on the adjacent section to the southeast, the Cholame section, which is considered to be locked, in as much as it apparently ruptures exclusively in large earthquakes (magnitudes greater than 7), most recently during the great Fort Tejon earthquake of 1857. The Parkfield section is thus a transition zone between two sections having different modes of fault failure. In fact, the regularity of significant earthquakes at Parkfield since 1857 may be due to the nearly constant slip rate pattern on the adjoining fault sections. Until the magnitude 6.7 Coalinga earthquake on May 2, 1983, 40 kilmoeters northeast of Parkfield, the Parkfield section had been relatively free of stress changes due to nearby shocks; the effect of the Coalinga shock on the timing of the next Parkfield shock is not known.
Aside from the goal of better understanding the Parkfield earthquake cycle, it is the intention of the U.S Geological Survey to attempt to issue a warning shortly before the anticipated earthquake. Although short-term earthquake warnings are not yet generally feasible, the wealth of information available for the previous significant Parkfield earthquakes suggests that if the next earthquake follows the pattern of "characteristic" Parkfield shocks, such a warning might be possible. Focusing on earthquake precursors reported for the previous "characteristic" shocks, particulary the 1934 and 1966 events, the USGS developed a plan* in late 1985 on which to base earthquake warnings for Parkfield and has assisted State, county, and local officials in the Parkfield area to prepare a coordinated, reasonable response to a warning, should one be issued.
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The 25-km-long section of the San Andreas fault near Parkfield, California ruptured in similar magnitude-6 earthquakes in 1881, 1901, 1922, 1934 and 1966. On the basis of a number of lines of seismological evidence, a section of the San Andreas fault, now termed the Parkfield preparation zone, has been identified as the locus of the next Parkfield earthquake 1,3 . Here we describe coincident changes in surface creep rates and deep seismicity near the Parkfield preparation zone following the 2 May 1983 Coalinga earthquake, and suggest that both respond to the same stimuli. These changes were concentrated near the point of initiation of the magnitude-6 characteristic Parkfield earthquakes, lending credence to the hypothesis that this section of the San Andreas fault is characterized by a unique set of physical properties 4–6 which make it ideal for earthquake prediction studies and which may also be useful for identifying hypocentral regions in other areas.
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Magnitude and seismic moment scales in western Yunnan, Peoples Republic of China
The Morgan Hill, California, earthquake (magnitude 6.1) of 24 April 1984 ruptured a 30-kilometer-long segment of the Calaveras fault zone to the east of San Jose. Although it was recognized in 1980 that an earthquake of magnitude 6 occurred on this segment in 1911 and that a repeat of this event might reasonably be expected, no short-term precursors were noted and so the time of the 1984 earthquake was not predicted. Unilateral rupture propagation toward the south-southeast and an energetic late source of seismic radiation located near the southeast end of the rupture zone contributed to the highly focused pattern of strong motion, including an exceptionally large horizontal acceleration of 1.29g at a site on a dam abutment near the southeast end of the rupture zone.
[No abstract available]
Moderate-sized earthquakes (Richter magnitude ML 5 1/2) have occurred four times this century (1901, 1922, 1934, and 1966) on the San Andreas fault near Parkfield in central California. In many respects the June 1966 sequence was a remarkably detailed repetition of the June 1934 sequence, suggesting a recurring recognizable pattern of stress and fault zone behavior.
The August 6, 1979 earthquake (magnitude 5.7 + 0.2) was located about 1 km east of the Calaveras fault trace near Coyote Lake, at a depth of about 10 km. The spatial distribution of the aftershocks in the first 15 days and the focal mechanism of the main shock and selected aftershocks suggest that faulting took place primarily to the southeast of the main shock along a 25-km segment of the Calaveras fault zone at a depth of 4 to 12 km. The motion was right-lateral strike-slip along a nearly vertical fault plane. Discontinuous surface rupture was observed along a 14.4-km length of the recently active trace of the fault southeast of Coyote Lake, but no surface faulting was seen in the epicentral area. A maximum 5-mm fault offset was recorded near San Felipe Lake, about 16 km south of the main shock. There was no prominent foreshock activity. The cumulative number of aftershocks (N) versus magnitude (M) could be described by the equation log N= 3.33 - 0.75 M, in the magnitude range between 1 and 3.5. The number and size of aftershocks appeared to be much less than that expected for a main shock of magnitude 5.7.