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Vitor Silva

Publications and source records attributed to Vitor Silva.

4 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2020

Development of a global seismic risk model

Since 2015 the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation and its partners have been supporting regional programmes and bilateral collaborations to develop an open global earthquake risk model. These efforts led to the development of a repository of probabilistic seismic hazard models, a global exposure dataset comprising structural and occupancy information regarding the residential, commercial and industrial buildings, and a comprehensive set of fragility and vulnerability functions for the most common building classes. These components were used to estimate probabilistic earthquake risk globally using the OpenQuake-engine, an open-source software for seismic hazard and risk analysis. This model allows estimating a number of risk metrics such as annualized average losses or aggregated losses for particular return periods, which are fundamental to the development and implementation of earthquake risk mitigation measures.

Earthquake Spectra↗
USGS2018

Developing a global earthquake risk model

The understanding of earthquake risk is the first step towards the development and implementation of disaster risk reduction measures. However, in many countries, especially the countries of the developing world, earthquake risk models either do not exist or are publicly inaccessible. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation and its partners have been supporting regional programmes and bilateral collaborations to develop a global earthquake risk model, due by the end of 2018. This paper describes how the main components (seismic hazard, exposure models and vulnerability functions) of this global effort are being collected, developed or improved. The calculations are being performed using the OpenQuake-engine, the open-source software for seismic hazard and risk calculations supported by GEM. This model will be able to provide estimates of critical risk metrics such as annualized average economic and human losses or aggregated losses for particular return periods, which are fundamental to the development of efficient and effective mitigation planning.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2014

Global assessment of human losses due to earthquakes

Current studies have demonstrated a sharp increase in human losses due to earthquakes. These alarming levels of casualties suggest the need for large-scale investment in seismic risk mitigation, which, in turn, requires an adequate understanding of the extent of the losses, and location of the most affected regions. Recent developments in global and uniform datasets such as instrumental and historical earthquake catalogues, population spatial distribution and country-based vulnerability functions, have opened an unprecedented possibility for a reliable assessment of earthquake consequences at a global scale. In this study, a uniform probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) model was employed to derive a set of global seismic hazard curves, using the open-source software OpenQuake for seismic hazard and risk analysis. These results were combined with a collection of empirical fatality vulnerability functions and a population dataset to calculate average annual human losses at the country level. The results from this study highlight the regions/countries in the world with a higher seismic risk, and thus where risk reduction measures should be prioritized.

Conference Paper↗