Geology topics

Tyler Wagner

Publications and source records attributed to Tyler Wagner.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

The effect of temperature, flow, density and disease on smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) early life growth rate

Individual growth rates of fish are influenced by gradually changing environmental conditions and rapid-onset events. However, there is a paucity of information on drivers of spatiotemporal variability in growth rates of fishes across large spatial extents. Using a 36-year dataset of smallmouth bass ( Micropterus dolomieu ) length-at-age data across 10 river reaches in Pennsylvania, USA ( n = 54,068 individuals), we estimated annual early life growth rates (mm year −1 ) and assessed the effects of relative abundance, summer temperature, summer streamflow rate and a disease outbreak on growth rate. We found that temperature had a positive effect on growth rate, varied spatially, and had a stronger effect in diseased reaches. There was also evidence for an impact of disease on early life growth through density-dependent mechanisms, with growth rates increasing from ∼85 to 101 mm·year −1 following disease-related decreases in abundance. This study adds to our understanding of the factors that shape early life growth, including rapid-onset events like disease which can have immediate and lasting effects on growth rate trajectory.

Pennsylvania↗

USGS2025

Model‐based decomposition of spatially varying temporal shifts in seasonal streamflow across north temperate US rivers.

Anthropogenically forced climate shifts disrupt the seasonal behavior of climatic and hydrologic processes. The seasonality of streamflow has significant implications for the ecology of riverine ecosystems and for meeting societal demands for water resources. We develop a hierarchical Bayesian model of daily streamflow to quantify how the shape of annual hydrographs are changing and to evaluate temporal trends in model-based hydrologic indices related to flow timing and magnitude shifts. We apply this model to 1,112 gages across the Northern US over the years 1965–2022. We identify large-scale patterns in temporal changes to streamflow profiles that are consistent with regional changes in hydroclimate, including decreasing seasonal flow variability in the Pacific Northwest and increasing winter flows in the northeastern United States. Within these regions we also observe fine-scale heterogeneity in streamflow timing and magnitude shifts, both of which have potentially significant implications for riverine ecosystem function and the ecosystem services they provide.

northern United States↗

USGS2025

Invasive predatory fish occupies highest trophic position leading to expansion of isotopic niches in a riverine food web

Invasive species are drivers of ecological change with the potential to reshape the structure and function of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. The invasive flathead catfish ( Pylodictis olivaris ) is an opportunistic predator that has established a rapidly growing population in the Susquehanna River, Pennsylvania, USA, since they were first detected in 2002. Although the predatory effects of invasive catfishes on native fish communities have been documented, the effects of invasion on riverine food webs are poorly understood. This study quantified the effects of invasive flathead catfish on the trophic position (TP) and isotopic niche of the river's food web by comparing invaded and non-invaded sites. In addition to flathead catfish, the food web components examined included crayfish, minnows, and two ecologically and socioeconomically important fish species: the smallmouth bass ( Micropterus dolomieu ) and channel catfish ( Ictalurus punctatus ). We found that flathead catfish occupied the highest TP, with a posterior mean TP of 3.08 (95% credible interval = [2.71, 3.42]), exceeding that of the two resident fish predators, the smallmouth bass and channel catfish. The TP of the resident channel catfish, which occupies a similar ecological niche, declined after flathead catfish invasion. In fact, there was a 0.92 posterior probability that channel catfish TP was lower in invaded sites than at non-invaded sites. Using a Bayesian bivariate ellipses analysis, we found overwhelming evidence of isotopic niche expansion and overlap for all components of the food web in the presence of flathead catfish. These findings support the “trophic disruption hypothesis,” where an introduced species prompts resident species to change diets in an attempt to avoid competition and predation following invasion. Our results indicate that flathead catfish invasion is altering food web structure and energy flow in a large riverine ecosystem and contributes to the breadth of knowledge regarding how ecosystems may respond to the introduction of a large predatory fish species.

Pennsylvania↗

USGS2025

Decadal stability in stream fish communities and contemporary ecological drivers of species occupancy in two Appalachian U.S. National Parks

Objective Although conserving fish biodiversity in lotic systems is challenging, protected areas can provide refuge from certain environmental stressors. In the Appalachian region, USA, the National Park Service manages Delaware Water Gap National Recreation Area (DEWA) and New River Gorge National Park & Preserve (NERI), which contain abundant and diverse freshwater resources. To assess the effectiveness of these protected areas in conserving stream fishes, we evaluated decadal changes and ecological drivers of species occupancy and detection. Methods Using fish assemblage data from backpack electrofishing surveys conducted in both parks during 2013–2014 and 2022–2023, we quantified temporal differences in species occupancy and detection probabilities using a Bayesian hierarchical multispecies occupancy modeling approach. For the 2022–2023 survey, we included habitat variables as predictors of occupancy and detection. Results Community composition and occupancy probabilities for species in both parks remained similar through time, with the most recent occupancy estimates ranging from 0.07 (90% CI = 0.02, 0.14) for Variegate Darter Etheostoma variatum and Rainbow Darter E. caeruleum to 0.73 (90% credible interval = 0.59, 0.85) for Blacknose Dace Rhinichthys atratulus . Changes in occupancy were more prominent at Delaware Water Gap National Recreation Area than New River Gorge National Park & Preserve, with Yellow Perch Perca flavescens having a posterior mean difference of −0.17 [90% credible interval = −0.35, −0.01] and American Eel Anguilla rostrata having a high posterior probability (>80%) of occupancy increasing by at least 1%. Habitat variables were related to community structure, but effects varied in significance, magnitude, and direction among species and parks. Conversely, species-specific detection probabilities were comparatively less affected by environmental and sampling effort predictors. Conclusions Between 2013 and 2023, occupancy estimates for 44 fish species across two protected, ecologically diverse landscapes remained relatively stable. Furthermore, we highlight the efficacy of national parks in maintaining freshwater fish biodiversity amidst rapid global change.

New Jersey, Pennsylvania, West Virginia↗

USGS2025

Abrupt changes in algal biomass of thousands of US lakes are related to climate and are more likely in low-disturbance watersheds.

Climate change is predicted to intensify lake algal blooms globally and result in regime shifts. However, observed increases in algal biomass do not consistently correlate with air temperature or precipitation, and evidence is lacking for a causal effect of climate or the nonlinear dynamics needed to demonstrate regime shifts. We modeled the causal effects of climate on annual lake chlorophyll (a measure of algal biomass) over 34 y for 24,452 lakes across broad ecoclimatic zones of the United States and evaluated the potential for regime shifts. We found that algal biomass was causally related to climate in 34% of lakes. In these cases, 71% exhibited abrupt but mostly temporary shifts as opposed to persistent changes, 13% had the potential for regime shifts. Climate was causally related to algal biomass in lakes experiencing all levels of human disturbance, but with different likelihood. Climate causality was most likely to be observed in lakes with minimal human disturbance and cooler summer temperatures that have increased over the 34 y studied. Climate causality was variable in lakes with low to moderate human disturbance, and least likely in lakes with high human disturbance, which may mask climate causality. Our results explain some of the previously observed heterogeneous climate responses of lake algal biomass globally and they can be used to predict future climate effects on lakes.

continental United States↗

USGS2025

Deformity, erosion, lesion, tumor, and parasite (DELT) anomalies in fish communities of the Chesapeake Bay watershed, USA: A regional assessment and potential landscape drivers

Fish diseases in freshwater ecosystems pose significant ecological and socioeconomic challenges, yet monitoring them in wild populations is complex due to interactions between pathogens, hosts, and environmental conditions. We examine the prevalence and watershed-scale landscape drivers of external deformity, erosion, lesion, tumor, and parasite (DELT) anomalies in 57 riverine fish species using a large dataset (577,266 individuals collected 2008–2019) from the Chesapeake Bay watershed that originated from state and federal agencies. Overall, DELT prevalence was low (1.4%), but was higher in larger, longer-lived species, including Channel Catfish ( Ictalurus punctatus ) (18.9%), Rock Bass ( Ambloplites rupestris ) (7.6%), Smallmouth Bass ( Micropterus dolomieu ) (7.3%), Brown Bullhead ( Ameiurus nebulosus ) (5.6%), and Yellow Bullhead ( Ameiurus natalis ) (5.1%), signifying their potential as regional environmental health indicators. Spatial analysis indicated warmer temperatures increased the estimated probability of DELT occurrence, whereas higher precipitation often mitigated the probability of DELT occurrence. Conservation strategies (e.g., best management practices) had mixed effectiveness in reducing DELT occurrence probability across agricultural and urban landscapes. Across the landscape, various drivers, including harvested forest, impervious land, and pesticide use, influenced DELT occurrence probability differently across species. However, uncertainty remains partly due to low prevalence and variability in sampling methods across agencies. Despite low overall prevalence, DELT occurrence is a rapid fish health indicator. Future research could emphasize species-specific responses and longitudinal studies that incorporate life stages and health indicators. Understanding these intricate, multi-scale interactions is vital for effective monitoring, conservation, and adaptive management of freshwater ecosystems.

Chesapeake Bay watershed↗

USGS2025

Landscape transcriptomic analysis detects thermal stress responses and potential adaptive variation in wild brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) during successive heatwaves

Extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, are becoming more frequent and intense as a result of climate change. Critically, such extreme weather events can be more important drivers of extirpation and selection than changes in annual or seasonal averages and they pose a particularly large threat to poikilothermic organisms. In this study, we evaluated the transcriptomic response of a coldwater adapted fish species, the eastern brook trout ( Salvelinus fontinalis ), to two successive heatwaves during July and August 2022. We sampled brook trout at eight time points from four streams ( N = 116 fish), sequenced mRNA from gill samples using TagSeq, and quantified expression levels of 32,670 unique transcripts. Multivariate analyses found that overall expression patterns in response to water temperature change were similar among streams. These analyses further detected groups of genes involved in immune response and oxygen carrier activity that were upregulated and downregulated respectively at higher water temperatures. We also detected 43 genes that were differentially expressed at different time points and followed the same expression pattern during the two heatwaves. Of these genes, 42 covaried with water temperature and most (27, 62.8 %) exhibited responses that varied by stream. Some of the differentially expressed genes, including heat shock proteins and cold-inducible RNA binding proteins, have been widely linked to temperature responses in experimental studies, whereas other genes we identified have functions that have not been well-studied in relationship to temperature or have unknown functions. This study shows the utility of landscape transcriptomic approaches to identify important biological processes governing wild organismal responses to short-term stressors. The results of this study can guide future investigations to identify phenotypic and genetic diversity that contribute to adaptive responses to heatwaves and improve predictions of how populations will respond to future climate change.

Pennsylvania↗

USGS2024

Factors influencing the prevalence of hyperpigmented melanistic lesions in smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu in the Susquehanna River Basin, Pennsylvania

Hyperpigmented melanistic lesions (HPMLs) are a visual anomaly documented on the skin of smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu in the Susquehanna River Basin, Pennsylvania and in numerous other geographical locations. Currently, there is a lack of information on environmental and fish characteristics that may influence the prevalence of HPMLs associated with a recently described Adomavirus . The goal of this study was to understand potential drivers associated with HPMLs in socioeconomically and ecologically important riverine smallmouth bass populations. A total of 16,220 smallmouth bass were collected and examined for HPMLs between 2012 and 2022 in the Susquehanna River Basin. Overall, HPMLs were documented on 2.9% of fish collected. The interaction between temperature and fish size suggested differing relationships between shorter and longer fish with respect to temperature. Predicted probability of HPML prevalence ranged from 1.1% (95% CI = 0.3, 3.2) at 4°C to 0.01% (CI = 0.00, 0.04) at 26°C for an age-0 (125 mm) fish. In contrast, predicted probability of HPML prevalence ranged from 10.5% (95% CI = 5.8, 18.9) at 4°C to 0.8% (CI = 0.4, 1.5) at 26°C for an adult (322 mm) fish. Overall, HPMLs were more common in longer fish during cooler temperature periods which also corresponds to key life history periods for smallmouth bass (e.g., pre-spawn and overwintering) and could represent different exposure histories for juvenile and adult fish.

Pennsylvania↗

USGS2024

Feeding habits and ecological implications of the invasive Flathead Catfish in the Susquehanna River basin, Pennsylvania

Objective Flathead Catfish Pylodictis olivaris are a widespread aquatic invasive species within the United States and a recent invader in the Susquehanna River basin, Pennsylvania. Flathead Catfish are piscivores known to consume native and recreationally important fish species. In the mid-Atlantic United States, it is unknown how this invader is impacting food webs and which species may be at greatest predation risk. To address this knowledge gap, we DNA barcoded stomach contents collected from Flathead Catfish to identify prey species and elucidate potential predatory impacts of Flathead Catfish in the Susquehanna River. Methods We used a Bayesian hierarchical multivariate probit model to investigate if the probability of prey species occurrence in the diets of Flathead Catfish varied seasonally or was a function of Flathead Catfish length. Result A total of 576 Flathead Catfish were collected during 2020–2021, with 241 individuals having recoverable stomach contents. In all, we identified 47 different prey species. The most common prey species were rusty crayfish Faxonius rusticus , Margined Madtom Noturus insignis , and shiners Notropis spp . While frequency of occurrence of prey species differed across Flathead Catfish length classes (<300 mm, 301–600 mm, 601–900 mm TL), rusty crayfish were commonly found (33.7–44.0% of diets) in stomachs of all size-classes. Conclusion We found that Flathead Catfish length and seasonality did influence occurrence probability differentially for several prey species. For example, Channel Catfish Ictalurus punctatus were more likely to appear in shorter Flathead Catfish while Smallmouth Bass Micropterus dolomieu appeared in larger Flathead Catfish. We demonstrate significant variation in Flathead Catfish predation, increasing our understanding of predator–prey dynamics, which is necessary to better manage and identify future impacts to aquatic communities in the Susquehanna River basin.

Pennsylvania↗

USGS2024

Population genetic structure and demographic history reconstruction of introduced flathead catfish (Pylodictis olivaris) in two US Mid-Atlantic rivers

Population genetic analysis of invasive populations can provide valuable insights into the source of introductions, pathways for expansion, and their demographic histories. Flathead catfish ( Pylodictis olivaris ) are a prolific invasive species with high fecundity, long-distance dispersal, and piscivorous feeding habits that can lead to declines in native fish populations. In this study, we analyse the genetics of invasive P. olivaris in the Mid-Atlantic region to assess their connectivity and attempt to reconstruct the history of introduced populations. Based on an assessment across 13 microsatellite loci, P. olivaris from the Susquehanna River system ( N = 537), Schuylkill River ( N = 33), and Delaware River ( N = 1) have low genetic diversity (global H obs = 0.504), although we detected no evidence of substantial inbreeding ( F IS = −0.083 to 0.022). P. olivaris from these different river systems were genetically distinct, suggesting separate introductions. However, population structure was much weaker within each river system and exhibited a pattern of high connectivity, with some evidence of isolation by distance. P. olivaris from the Susquehanna and Schuylkill rivers showed evidence for recent genetic bottlenecks, and demographic models were consistent with historical records, which suggest that populations were established by recent founder events consisting of a small number of individuals. Our results show the risk posed by small introductions of P. olivaris , which can spread widely once a population is established, and highlight the importance of prevention and sensitive early detection methods to prevent the spread of P. olivaris in the future.

Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvania↗

USGS2024

Connecting conservation practices to local stream health in the Chesapeake Bay watershed

The Chesapeake Bay Partnership is implementing conservation practices (CPs) throughout the Chesapeake Bay watershed to reduce nutrient and sediment delivery to the Bay. This study intends to provide an integrated and detailed understanding of how local streams respond to these CP-driven management efforts. Key issue: To what extent do CPs positively affect the health of local streams in the nontidal watershed (cobenefits)? Critical unknown: How do CPs change water quality and the stressors that affect stream aquatic life? Which CPs improve stream health more effectively? Critical knowledge to be delivered to stakeholders includes— the effects of CPs on local water-quality conditions, the degree to which these same CPs also provide local stream-ecosystem benefits, and a deeper understanding of local stream-ecosystems, including stressors and CPs, to guide the selection of management efforts that enhance both water quality and overall stream-ecosystem health.

Chesapeake Bay watershed↗

USGS2024

Predicting responses to climate change using a joint species, spatially dependent physiologically guided abundance model

Predicting the effects of warming temperatures on the abundance and distribution of organisms under future climate scenarios often requires extrapolating species–environment correlations to climatic conditions not currently experienced by a species, which can result in unrealistic predictions. For poikilotherms, incorporating species' thermal physiology to inform extrapolations under novel thermal conditions can result in more realistic predictions. Furthermore, models that incorporate species and spatial dependencies may improve predictions by capturing correlations present in ecological data that are not accounted for by predictor variables. Here, we present a joint species, spatially dependent physiologically guided abundance (jsPGA) model for predicting multispecies responses to climate warming. The jsPGA model uses a basis function approach to capture both species and spatial dependencies. We apply the jsPGA model to predict the response of eight fish species to projected climate warming in thousands of lakes in Minnesota, USA. By the end of the century, the cold-adapted species was predicted to have high probabilities of extirpation across its current range—with 10% of lakes currently inhabited by this species having an extirpation probability >0.90. The remaining species had varying levels of predicted changes in abundance, reflecting differences in their thermal physiology. Though the model did not identify many strong species dependencies, the variation in estimated spatial dependence across species suggested that accounting for both dependencies was important for predicting the abundance of these fishes. The jsPGA model provides a new tool for predicting changes in the abundance, distribution, and extirpation probability of poikilotherms under novel thermal conditions.

Minnesota↗

USGS2024

The effects of wastewater reuse on smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) relative abundance in the Shenandoah River Watershed, USA

Municipal and industrial wastewater effluent is an important source of water for lotic systems, especially during periods of low flow. The accumulated wastewater effluent flows—expressed as a percentage of total streamflow (ACCWW%)—contain chemical mixtures that pose a risk to aquatic life; fish may be particularly vulnerable when chronically exposed. Although there has been considerable focus on individual-level effects of exposure to chemical mixtures found in wastewater effluent, scaling up to population-level effects remains a challenging component needed to better understand the potential consequences of exposure in wild populations. This may be particularly important under a changing climate in which wastewater reuse could be essential to maintain river flows. We evaluated the effects of chronic exposure to wastewater effluent, as measured by ACCWW%, on the relative abundance of young-of-year (YOY), juvenile, and adult smallmouth bass ( Micropterus dolomieu ) populations in the Shenandoah River Watershed (USA). We found that increases in ACCWW% in the previous year and during the prespawn period were negatively correlated with the relative abundance of YOY, resulting in an average 41% predicted decrease in abundance (range = 0.5%–94% predicted decrease in abundance). This lagged effect suggests that adult fish reproductive performance may be compromised by chemical exposure during periods of high ACCWW%. No relationships between ACCWW% and juvenile or adult relative abundance were found, suggesting that negative effects of ACCWW% on YOY abundance may be offset due to compensatory mechanisms following higher ACCWW% exposure. Understanding the effects of wastewater effluent exposure at multiple levels of biological organization will help in the development of management strategies aimed at protecting aquatic life. Environ Toxicol Chem 2024;43:1138–1148. © 2024 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of SETAC. This article has been contributed to by U.S. Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.

Virginia↗

USGS2024

Evaluating the effectiveness of joint species distribution modeling for fresh water fish communities within large watersheds

Accurately predicting species’ distributions is critical for the management and conservation of fish and wildlife populations. Joint Species Distribution Models (JSDMs) account for dependencies between species often ignored by traditional species distribution models. We evaluated how a JSDM approach could improve predictive strength for stream fish communities within large watersheds (the Chesapeake Bay Watershed, USA), using a cross-validation study of JSDMs fit to data from over 50 species. Our results suggest that conditional predictions from JSDMs have the potential to make large improvements in predictive accuracy for many species, particularly for more generalist species where single species models may not perform well. For some species there was no added explanatory effect from conditional information, most of which already exhibited strong marginal predictive ability. For several rare species there were significant improvements in occurrence predictions, while the results for two invasive species considered did not show the same improvements. Overall, the optimal number of species to condition upon, as well as the effects of conditioning upon an increasing number of species, varied widely among species.

Chesapeake Bay watershed↗

USGS2023

Movement beyond the mean: decoupling sources of individual variation in brook trout movement across seasons

Movement is an important eco-evolutionary process that can shape population and ecosystem structure and function. Accordingly, a firm understanding of species movement ecology is often foundational to effective management and conservation. However, despite movement being an inherently individual-level behavior, there remains a tendency to describe dispersal and migration patterns using simple population-level processes and effects. Overlooking within- and among-individual variation in movement risks incomplete understanding of the intrinsic and extrinsic factors that govern dispersal dynamics and could potentially result in inadequate management of critical behavioral phenotypes. In this study, we monitored movement of over 100 brook trout ( Salvelinus fontinalis ) and quantified the effect of individual-level traits, season, and their interactions to better understand factors that influence vagility. Our results suggest that movement was higher in fall than in summer, particularly for fish in poor condition. But we found no significant main effects for sex, providing no evidence for sex-biased dispersal. To better understand sources of individual variation, we also allowed for sex- and season-specific residual standard deviations. In doing so, we found that, on average, movement was more variable in fall compared to summer, and that females were more variable than males in vagility. Taken together, these results demonstrate how intrinsic, individual-level traits can interact with abiotic environmental conditions to determine movement. They also highlight the potential for simple explanations of movement ecology to overlook important traits that may help predict individual-level behaviors.

Pennsylvania↗

USGS2023

Accounting for spatiotemporal sampling variation in joint species distribution models

Estimating relative abundance is critical for informing conservation and management efforts and for making inferences about the effects of environmental change on populations. Freshwater fisheries span large geographic regions, occupy diverse habitats and consist of varying species assemblages. Monitoring schemes used to sample these diverse populations often result in populations being sampled at different times and under different environmental conditions. Varying sampling conditions can bias estimates of abundance when compared across time, location and species, and properly accounting for these biases is critical for making inferences. We develop a joint species distribution model (JSDM) that accounts for varying sampling conditions due to the environment and time of sampling when estimating relative abundance. The novelty of our JSDM is that we explicitly model sampling effort as the product of known quantities based on time and gear type and an unknown functional relationship to capture seasonal variation in species life history. We use the model to study relative abundance of six freshwater fish species across the state of Minnesota, USA. Our model enables estimates of relative abundance to be compared both within and across species and lakes, and captures the inconsistent sampling present in the data. We discuss how gear type, water temperature and day of the year impact catchability for each species at the lake level and throughout a year. We compare our estimates of relative abundance to those obtained from a model that assumes constant catchability to highlight important differences within and across lakes and species. Synthesis and applications : Our method illustrates that assumptions relating indices of abundance to observed catch data can greatly impact model inferences derived from JSDMs. Specifically, not accounting for varying sampling conditions can bias inference of relative abundance, restricting our ability to detect responses to management interventions and environmental change. While our focus is on freshwater fisheries, this model architecture can be adopted to other systems where catchability may vary as a function of space, time and species.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2023

A continuous classification of the 476,697 lakes of the conterminous US based on geographic archetypes

A variety of classification approaches are used to facilitate understanding, prediction, monitoring, and the management of lakes. However, broad-scale applicability of current approaches is limited by either the need for in situ lake data, incompatibilities among approaches, or a lack of empirical testing of approaches based on ex situ data. We developed a new geographic classification approach for 476,697 lakes ≥ 1 ha in the conterminous U.S. based on lake archetypes representing end members along gradients of multiple geographic features. We identified seven lake archetypes with distinct combinations of climate, hydrologic, geologic, topographic, and morphometric properties. Individual lakes were assigned weights for each of the seven archetypes such that groups of lakes with similar combinations of archetype weights tended to cluster spatially (although not strictly contiguous) and to have similar limnological properties (e.g., concentrations of nutrients, chlorophyll a (Chl a ), and dissolved organic carbon). Further, archetype lake classification improved commonly measured limnological relationships (e.g., between nutrients and Chl a ) compared to a global model; a discrete archetype classification slightly outperformed an ecoregion classification; and considering lakes as continuous mixtures of archetypes in a more complex model further improved fit. Overall, archetype classification of US lakes as continuous mixtures of geographic features improved understanding and prediction of lake responses to limnological drivers and should help researchers and managers better characterize and forecast lake states and responses to environmental change.

conterminous United States↗

USGS2023

Fire characteristics and hydrologic connectivity influence short-term responses of north temperate lakes to wildfire

Despite increasing wildfires, few studies have investigated seasonal water quality responses to wildfire characteristics (e.g., burn severity) across a large number of lakes. We monitored 30 total lakes (15 burned, 15 control) monthly following the Greenwood Fire in Minnesota, USA, a lake-rich region with historically prevalent wildfire. We found increases in median concentrations of total nitrogen (68%), total phosphorus (70%), dissolved organic carbon (127%), total suspended solids (71%), and reduced water clarity (48%) and pH (0.45) in burned lakes. Post-wildfire responses in drainage lakes were often persistent or cumulative throughout the open-water season, compared to isolated lakes. Total phosphorus (TP) increased linearly with watershed high-severity burns, and shoreline high-severity burns explained more variation in TP than lake morphometry and watershed variables. Post-wildfire chlorophyll-a responses were nonsignificant and inconsistent, possibly due to light limitation. Our results suggest that increasing wildfires have significant potential to affect water quality of inland lakes.

Geophysical Research Letters↗