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Tom Parsons

Publications and source records attributed to Tom Parsons.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2021

The making of the NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18)

The NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18) is a probabilistic hazard model for tsunamis generated by earthquakes. It covers the coastlines of the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean, and connected seas (NEAM). NEAMTHM18 was designed as a three-phase project. The first two phases were dedicated to the model development and hazard calculations, following a formalized decision-making process based on a multiple-expert protocol. The third phase was dedicated to documentation and dissemination. The hazard assessment workflow was structured in Steps and Levels. There are four Steps: Step-1) probabilistic earthquake model; Step-2) tsunami generation and modeling in deep water; Step-3) shoaling and inundation; Step-4) hazard aggregation and uncertainty quantification. Each Step includes a different number of Levels. Level-0 always describes the input data; the other Levels describe the intermediate results needed to proceed from one Step to another. Alternative datasets and models were considered in the implementation. The epistemic hazard uncertainty was quantified through an ensemble modeling technique accounting for alternative models’ weights and yielding a distribution of hazard curves represented by the mean and various percentiles. Hazard curves were calculated at 2,343 Points of Interest (POI) distributed at an average spacing of ∼20 km. Precalculated probability maps for five maximum inundation heights (MIH) and hazard intensity maps for five average return periods (ARP) were produced from hazard curves. In the entire NEAM Region, MIHs of several meters are rare but not impossible. Considering a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years (ARP≈2,475 years), the POIs with MIH >5 m are fewer than 1% and are all in the Mediterranean on Libya, Egypt, Cyprus, and Greece coasts. In the North-East Atlantic, POIs with MIH >3 m are on the coasts of Mauritania and Gulf of Cadiz. Overall, 30% of the POIs have MIH >1 m. NEAMTHM18 results and documentation are available through the TSUMAPS-NEAM project website (http://www.tsumaps-neam.eu/), featuring an interactive web mapper. Although the NEAMTHM18 cannot substitute in-depth analyses at local scales, it represents the first action to start local and more detailed hazard and risk assessments and contributes to designing evacuation maps for tsunami early warning.

Frontiers in Earth Science↗
USGS2010

The 2007 M5.4 Alum Rock, California, earthquake: Implications for future earthquakes on the central and southern Calaveras Fault

[1] The similarity of seismograms recorded by two seismic stations demonstrate that the 31 October 2007 moment magnitude M 5.4 Alum Rock earthquake is a repeat of a 1955 M L 5.5 earthquake. Both occurred on Oppenheimer et al.'s (1990) Zone V “stuck patch” on the central Calaveras fault, providing new support for their model of Calaveras fault earthquake activity. We suggest that Zone V fails only in a family of recurring M ∼ 5.4–5.5 earthquakes. The 1955 and 2007 earthquakes are the penultimate and ultimate Zone V events. Earthquakes in 1891 and 1864 are possible earlier Zone V events. The next Zone V event is not expected in the next few decades, assuming a time‐dependent recurrence model: the mean forecast date is 2064 (2035–2104, 95% confidence range). We further suggest that Zones I, II, III, and IV fail in recurring M ∼ 5.1–5.3, M ∼ 5.6–5.8, M ∼ 6.1–6.3, and M ∼ 4.9–5.0 earthquakes, respectively. If our earthquake recurrence model is correct, the next Zone I event is overdue and could occur anytime, and M 5–6 earthquakes should not occur on Zones II, III, and IV before 2014, 2012, and 2026, respectively. We cannot rule out the possibility that Zone VI, which lies at the southern end of the Mission Seismic Trend, where the southern Hayward and central Calaveras faults appear to connect at depth, fails aseismically or in large events on the southern Hayward fault, such as last occurred in 1868, or in large events on the adjoining northern Calaveras fault segment.

California↗
USGS2009

Three‐dimensional model of Hellenic Arc deformation and origin of the Cretan uplift

[1] The Hellenic Arc of Greece is the most seismically active part of Europe, but little is know about its mechanics. We modeled deformation along the arc using a finite element model. The model was intended to capture large‐scale 3‐D structure of Nubian plate subduction beneath the Aegean block and its deformational consequences. The shape of the interface was developed using mapped traces at the surface and earthquake hypocenters at depth. Model block motions were constrained by recent compilations of GPS velocity vectors. We simulated a 10 ka period of convergence between Nubia and the Aegean and calculated the strain field in the overriding plate as well as the spatial distribution and orientation of differential stress (∣ σ 1 − σ 3 ∣). From these calculations we derived testable quantities such as the expected seismic moment rate on the interplate contact, uplift pattern, and distribution of strain modes. Our relatively simple model broadly reproduced observed uplift patterns, earthquake activity, and loci of extension and contraction. The model showed a localization of uplift near the island of Crete, where the fastest Aegean uplift rates are well documented. Comparison of calculated expected seismic moment and observed earthquake catalogs implies a nearly fully coupled interplate contact. On the basis of our modeling results, we suggest that south Aegean deformation is driven primarily by the fast moving (∼33 mm a −1 ) Aegean upper plate overriding a nearly stalled (∼5 mm a −1 ) Nubian lower plate. This tectonic setting thus more closely resembles a continental thrust than it does a typical oceanic subduction zone.

Aegean Sea, Hellenic Arc↗
USGS2008

A global search for stress shadows

[1] Debate continues regarding the relative proportion of earthquakes triggered by passing seismic waves versus static stress changes from a main shock. Static stress changes are expected to have long‐term effects on earthquake probabilities, whereas dynamic stress changes due to the passing of seismic waves should not. Both mechanisms are expected to raise seismicity rates in some areas, but only static stress change calculations predict rate decrease shadows. Thus, identification of post‐main‐shock earthquake suppression is diagnostic of a static stress change process. We note that in principle, static stress change theory predicts suppression of particular earthquake mechanisms in a shadow zone rather than an overall rate reduction. A stress shadow can therefore be characterized by a change in the average earthquake focal mechanism before and after a main shock that results from suppression of a given mechanism type. We examined average mechanisms from ±2° radii and 5‐year periods before and after 119 M s ≥ 7 main shock earthquakes drawn from the Harvard Centroid Moment Tensor (CMT) catalog. Significant average mechanism changes caused by earthquake suppression were found in only two cases. However, by stacking the data, we were able to resolve statistically significant suppression of particular post‐main‐shock focal mechanisms. This indicates that, while static stress shadows are subtle, they are indeed present in the global catalog.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗
USGS2008

Global ubiquity of dynamic earthquake triggering

Earthquakes can be triggered by local changes in the stress field (static triggering 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 ) due to nearby earthquakes or by stresses caused by the passage of surface (Rayleigh and Love) waves from a remote, large earthquake (dynamic triggering 8 , 9 , 10 , 11 , 12 , 13 , 14 , 15 , 16 , 17 , 18 ). However, the mechanism, frequency, controlling factors and the global extent of dynamic triggering are yet to be fully understood. Because Rayleigh waves involve compressional and dilatational particle motion (volumetric changes) as well as shearing, whereas Love waves only involve shearing, triggering by either wave type implies fundamentally different physical mechanisms. Here, we analyse broadband seismograms from over 500 globally distributed stations and use an automated approach to systematically identify small triggered earthquakes—the low-amplitude signals of such earthquakes would normally be masked by high-amplitude surface waves. Our analysis reveals that out of 15 earthquakes studied of magnitude ( M ) greater than 7.0 that occurred after 1990, 12 are associated with significant increases in the detection of smaller earthquakes during the passage of both the Love and Rayleigh waves. We conclude that dynamic triggering is a ubiquitous phenomenon that is independent of the tectonic environment of the main earthquake or the triggered event.

Nature Geoscience↗
USGS2008

Monte Carlo method for determining earthquake recurrence parameters from short paleoseismic catalogs: Example calculations for California

Paleoearthquake observations often lack enough events at a given site to directly define a probability density function (PDF) for earthquake recurrence. Sites with fewer than 10-15 intervals do not provide enough information to reliably determine the shape of the PDF using standard maximum-likelihood techniques [e.g., Ellsworth et al., 1999]. In this paper I present a method that attempts to fit wide ranges of distribution parameters to short paleoseismic series. From repeated Monte Carlo draws, it becomes possible to quantitatively estimate most likely recurrence PDF parameters, and a ranked distribution of parameters is returned that can be used to assess uncertainties in hazard calculations. In tests on short synthetic earthquake series, the method gives results that cluster around the mean of the input distribution, whereas maximum likelihood methods return the sample means [e.g., NIST/SEMATECH, 2006]. For short series (fewer than 10 intervals), sample means tend to reflect the median of an asymmetric recurrence distribution, possibly leading to an overestimate of the hazard should they be used in probability calculations. Therefore a Monte Carlo approach may be useful for assessing recurrence from limited paleoearthquake records. Further, the degree of functional dependence among parameters like mean recurrence interval and coefficient of variation can be established. The method is described for use with time-independent and time-dependent PDF?s, and results from 19 paleoseismic sequences on strike-slip faults throughout the state of California are given.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2007

Persistent earthquake clusters and gaps from slip on irregular faults

Earthquake-producing fault systems like the San Andreas fault in California show self-similar structural variation 1 ; earthquakes cluster in space, leaving aseismic gaps between clusters. Whether gaps represent overdue earthquakes or signify diminished risk is a question with which seismic-hazard forecasters wrestle 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 . Here I use spectral analysis of the spatial distribution of seismicity along the San Andreas fault (for earthquakes that are at least 2 in magnitude), which reveals that it obeys a power-law relationship, indicative of self-similarity in clusters across a range of spatial scales. To determine whether the observed clustering of earthquakes is the result of a heterogeneous stress distribution, I use a finite-element method to simulate the motion of two rigid blocks past each other along a model fault surface that shows three-dimensional complexity on the basis of mapped traces of the San Andreas fault. The results indicate that long-term slip on the model fault generates a temporally stable, spatially variable distribution of stress that shows the same power-law relationship as the earthquake distribution. At the highest rates of San Andreas fault slip (40 mm yr −1 ), stress patterns produced are stable over a minimum of 25,000 years before the model fault system evolves into a new configuration. These results suggest that although gaps are not immune to rupture propagation they are less likely to be nucleation sites for earthquakes.

California↗
USGS2007

Forecast experiment: do temporal and spatial b value variations along the Calaveras fault portend M ≥ 4.0 earthquakes?

The power law distribution of earthquake magnitudes and frequencies is a fundamental scaling relationship used for forecasting. However, can its slope (b value) be used on individual faults as a stress indicator? Some have concluded that b values drop just before large shocks. Others suggested that temporally stable low b value zones identify future large-earthquake locations. This study assesses the frequency of b value anomalies portending M ≥ 4.0 shocks versus how often they do not. I investigated M ≥ 4.0 Calaveras fault earthquakes because there have been 25 over the 37-year duration of the instrumental catalog on the most active southern half of the fault. With that relatively large sample, I conducted retrospective time and space earthquake forecasts. I calculated temporal b value changes in 5-km-radius cylindrical volumes of crust that were significant at 90% confidence, but these changes were poor forecasters of M ≥ 4.0 earthquakes. M ≥ 4.0 events were as likely to happen at times of high b values as they were at low ones. However, I could not rule out a hypothesis that spatial b value anomalies portend M ≥ 4.0 events; of 20 M ≥ 4 shocks that could be studied, 6 to 8 (depending on calculation method) occurred where b values were significantly less than the spatial mean, 1 to 2 happened above the mean, and 10 to 13 occurred within 90% confidence intervals of the mean and were thus inconclusive. Thus spatial b value variation might be a useful forecast tool, but resolution is poor, even on seismically active faults.

California↗
USGS2005

Triggering of tsunamigenic aftershocks from large strike‐slip earthquakes: Analysis of the November 2000 New Ireland earthquake sequence

[1] The November 2000 New Ireland earthquake sequence started with a M w = 8.0 left‐lateral main shock on 16 November and was followed by a series of aftershocks with primarily thrust mechanisms. The earthquake sequence was associated with a locally damaging tsunami on the islands of New Ireland and nearby New Britain, Bougainville, and Buka. Results from numerical tsunami‐propagation models of the main shock and two of the largest thrust aftershocks ( M w > 7.0) indicate that the largest tsunami was caused by an aftershock located near the southeastern termination of the main shock, off the southern tip of New Ireland (Aftershock 1). Numerical modeling and tide gauge records at regional and far‐field distances indicate that the main shock also generated tsunami waves. Large horizontal displacements associated with the main shock in regions of steep bathymetry accentuated tsunami generation for this event. Most of the damage on Bougainville and Buka Islands was caused by focusing and amplification of tsunami energy from a ridge wave between the source region and these islands. Modeling of changes in the Coulomb failure stress field caused by the main shock indicate that Aftershock 1 was likely triggered by static stress changes, provided the fault was on or synthetic to the New Britain interplate thrust as specified by the Harvard CMT mechanism. For other possible focal mechanisms of Aftershock 1 and the regional occurrence of thrust aftershocks in general, evidence for static stress change triggering is not as clear. Other triggering mechanisms such as changes in dynamic stress may also have been important. The 2000 New Ireland earthquake sequence provides evidence that tsunamis caused by thrust aftershocks can be triggered by large strike‐slip earthquakes. Similar tectonic regimes that include offshore accommodation structures near large strike‐slip faults are found in southern California, the Sea of Marmara, Turkey, along the Queen Charlotte fault in British Columbia, and near the Alpine fault of New Zealand. Results from this study and previous stress modeling studies suggest that the likelihood of local tsunamis in these regions may significantly increase after a great strike‐slip earthquake.

New Britain, New Ireland↗
USGS2005

Structure and mechanics of the San Andreas–San Gregorio fault junction, San Francisco, California

[1] The right‐lateral San Gregorio and San Andreas faults meet west of the Golden Gate near San Francisco. Coincident seismic reflection and refraction profiling across the San Gregorio and San Andreas faults south of their junction shows the crust between them to have formed shallow extensional basins that are dissected by parallel strike‐slip faults. We employ a regional finite element model to investigate the long‐term consequences of the fault geometry. Over the course of 2–3 m.y. of slip on the San Andreas‐San Gregorio fault system, elongated extensional basins are predicted to form between the two faults. An additional consequence of the fault geometry is that the San Andreas fault is expected to have migrated eastward relative to the San Gregorio fault. We thus propose a model of eastward stepping right‐lateral fault formation to explain the observed multiple fault strands and depositional basins. The current manifestation of this process might be the observed transfer of slip from the San Andreas fault east to the Golden Gate fault.

California↗
USGS2002

Global Omori law decay of triggered earthquakes: Large aftershocks outside the classical aftershock zone

[1] Triggered earthquakes can be large, damaging, and lethal as evidenced by the1999 shocks in Turkey and the 2001 earthquakes in El Salvador. In this study, earthquakes with M s ≥ 7.0 from the Harvard centroid moment tensor (CMT) catalog are modeled as dislocations to calculate shear stress changes on subsequent earthquake rupture planes near enough to be affected. About 61% of earthquakes that occurred near (defined as having shear stress change ∣Δτ∣ ≥ 0.01 MPa) the M s ≥ 7.0 shocks are associated with calculated shear stress increases, while ∼39% are associated with shear stress decreases. If earthquakes associated with calculated shear stress increases are interpreted as triggered, then such events make up at least 8% of the CMT catalog. Globally, these triggered earthquakes obey an Omori law rate decay that lasts between ∼7–11 years after the main shock. Earthquakes associated with calculated shear stress increases occur at higher rates than background up to 240 km away from the main shock centroid. Omori's law is one of the few time‐predictable patterns evident in the global occurrence of earthquakes. If large triggered earthquakes habitually obey Omori's law, then their hazard can be more readily assessed. The characteristic rate change with time and spatial distribution can be used to rapidly assess the likelihood of triggered earthquakes following events of M s ≥ 7.0. I show an example application to the M = 7.7 13 January 2001 El Salvador earthquake where use of global statistics appears to provide a better rapid hazard estimate than Coulomb stress change calculations.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2002

Post-1906 stress recovery of the San Andreas fault system calculated from three-dimensional finite element analysis

The M = 7.8 1906 San Francisco earthquake cast a stress shadow across the San Andreas fault system, inhibiting other large earthquakes for at least 75 years. The duration of the stress shadow is a key question in San Francisco Bay area seismic hazard assessment. This study presents a three-dimensional (3-D) finite element simulation of post-1906 stress recovery. The model reproduces observed geologic slip rates on major strike-slip faults and produces surface velocity vectors comparable to geodetic measurements. Fault stressing rates calculated with the finite element model are evaluated against numbers calculated using deep dislocation slip. In the finite element model, tectonic stressing is distributed throughout the crust and upper mantle, whereas tectonic stressing calculated with dislocations is focused mostly on faults. In addition, the finite element model incorporates postseismic effects such as deep afterslip and viscoelastic relaxation in the upper mantle. More distributed stressing and postseismic effects in the finite element model lead to lower calculated tectonic stressing rates and longer stress shadow durations (17–74 years compared with 7–54 years). All models considered indicate that the 1906 stress shadow was completely erased by tectonic loading no later than 1980. However, the stress shadow still affects present-day earthquake probability. Use of stressing rate parameters calculated with the finite element model yields a 7–12% reduction in 30-year probability caused by the 1906 stress shadow as compared with calculations not incorporating interactions. The aggregate interaction-based probability on selected segments (not including the ruptured San Andreas fault) is 53–70% versus the noninteraction range of 65–77%.

California↗
USGS2001

Very different crustal response to extreme extension in the southern Basin and Range and Colorado Plateau transition

Clustered about the southwest edge of the Colorado Plateau lie many highly extended terranes. Among these are metamorphic core complexes, distinguished by low-angle normal faults with sufficient offset to expose middle crustal rocks at higher elevation relative to the surrounding areas. About 150 km to the southwest, strong extension in the Salton Trough manifests itself very differently; high-angle normal faults form deep basins, with the strongest extension causing subsidence beneath sea level. We ask why strong extension takes such different forms, and, to help answer the question, we take advantage of seismic and gravity profiles that cross through the Salton Trough, metamorphic core complexes, and the Colorado Plateau. We propose that the relative rate of extension vs. intrusion of crust by magmatism and crustal flow controls the extensional style. We further show that conditions may have been ideal for core complex formation along the edges of the Colorado Plateau because its thick crust and high elevation provided a source of crustal flow and the pressure gradient to drive the flow.

California↗
USGS2000

Static-stress impact of the 1992 Landers earthquake sequence on nucleation and slip at the site of the 1999 M=7.1 Hector Mine earthquake, southern California

The proximity in time (∼7 years) and space (∼20 km) between the 1992 M=7.3 Landers earthquake and the 1999 M=7.1 Hector Mine event suggests a possible link between the quakes. We thus calculated the static stress changes following the 1992 Joshua Tree/Landers/Big Bear earthquake sequence on the 1999 M=7.1 Hector Mine rupture plane in southern California. Resolving the stress tensor into rake-parallel and fault-normal components and comparing with changes in the post-Landers seismicity rate allows us to estimate a coefficient of friction on the Hector Mine plane. Seismicity following the 1992 sequence increased at Hector Mine where the fault was unclamped. This increase occurred despite a calculated reduction in right-lateral shear stress. The dependence of seismicity change primarily on normal stress change implies a high coefficient of static friction (µ≥0.8). We calculated the Coulomb stress change using µ=0.8 and found that the Hector Mine hypocenter was mildly encouraged (0.5 bars) by the 1992 earthquake sequence. In addition, the region of peak slip during the Hector Mine quake occurred where Coulomb stress is calculated to have increased by 0.5–1.5 bars. In general, slip was more limited where Coulomb stress was reduced, though there was some slip where the strongest stress decrease was calculated. Interestingly, many smaller earthquakes nucleated at or near the 1999 Hector Mine hypocenter after 1992, but only in 1999 did an event spread to become a M=7.1 earthquake.

Geophysical Research Letters↗