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Todd A. Koenig

Publications and source records attributed to Todd A. Koenig.

8 recordsLinked to original sources

Science for a risky world—A U.S. Geological Survey plan for risk research and applications

Executive Summary Natural hazards—including earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, landslides, hurricanes, droughts, floods, wildfires, geomagnetic storms, and pandemics—can wreak havoc on human communities, the economy, and natural resources for years following an initial event. Hazards can claim lives and cause billions of dollars in damage to homes and infrastructure as well as lost or compromised economic activity and threats to national security. They also can have adverse environmental, social, economic, and health effects that extend well beyond the immediate area, sometimes with global implications. Changes in population growth, climate, and urbanization may exacerbate hazard impacts. Because of the potential severity of a single hazard event, reducing risk—the potential loss of societally important assets caused by these hazards—is a high priority for everyone, including policy makers, community members, emergency managers, resource managers, utility operators, business owners, and planners. These stakeholders demand usable, user-centric information to support decisions for planning a resilient future and for responding to and recovering from unanticipated events in more adaptable and cost-effective ways. Meeting this demand requires maximizing the use of environmental observations; hazards science; and research on communications, social stressors, and human behavior to deliver risk information in forms that are accessible by decision makers and the public alike. To achieve this, scientists and stakeholders must collaborate to match community needs with actionable insights, research, products, and tools, using advances in technology to improve information discovery and delivery.

Circular

Field manual for identifying and preserving high-water mark data

This field manual provides general guidance for identifying and collecting high-water marks and is meant to be used by field personnel as a quick reference. The field manual describes purposes for collecting and documenting high-water marks along with the most common types of high-water marks. The manual provides a list of suggested field equipment, describes rules of thumb and best practices for finding high-water marks, and describes the importance of evaluating each high-water mark and assigning a numeric uncertainty value as part of the flagging process. The manual also includes an appendix of photographs of a variety of high-water marks obtained from various U.S. Geological Survey field investigations along with general comments about the logic for the assigned uncertainty values.

Open-File Report

Examination of flood characteristics at selected streamgages in the Meramec River Basin, eastern Missouri, December 2015–January 2016

Overview Heavy rainfall resulted in major flooding in the Meramec River Basin in eastern Missouri during late December 2015 through early January 2016. Cumulative rainfall from December 14 to 29, 2015, ranged from 7.6 to 12.3 inches at selected precipitation stations in the basin with flooding driven by the heaviest precipitation (3.9–9.7 inches) between December 27 and 29, 2015. Financial losses from flooding included damage to homes and other structures, damage to roads, and debris removal. Eight of 11 counties in the basin were declared a Federal Disaster Area. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and St. Louis Metropolitan Sewer District, operates multiple streamgages along the Meramec River and its primary tributaries including the Bourbeuse River and Big River. The period of record for streamflow at streamgages in the basin included in this report ranges from 24 to 102 years. Instrumentation in a streamgage shelter automatically makes observations of stage using a variety of methods (submersible pressure transducer, non-submersible pressure transducer, or non-contact radar). These observations are recorded autonomously at a predetermined programmed frequency (typically either 15 or 30 minutes) dependent on drainage-area size and concomitant flashiness of the stream. Although stage data are important, streamflow data are equally or more important for streamflow forecasting, water-quality constituent loads computation, flood-frequency analysis, and flood mitigation planning. Streamflows are computed from recorded stage data using an empirically determined relation between stage and streamflow termed a “rating.” Development and verification of the rating requires periodic onsite discrete measurements of streamflow throughout time and over the range of stages to define local hydraulic conditions. The purpose of this report is to examine characteristics of flooding that occurred in the Meramec River Basin in December 2015–January 2016 including peak stages, peak streamflows, and the flood-frequency statistics associated with the peak flows. A comparison between the December 2015–January 2016 flood and a similar flood in December 1982 in the Meramec River Basin also is included.

Missouri

Identifying and preserving high-water mark data

High-water marks provide valuable data for understanding recent and historical flood events. The proper collection and recording of high-water mark data from perishable and preserved evidence informs flood assessments, research, and water resource management. Given the high cost of flooding in developed areas, experienced hydrographers, using the best available techniques, can contribute high-quality data toward efforts such as public education of flood risk, flood inundation mapping, flood frequency computations, indirect streamflow measurement, and hazard assessments. This manual presents guidance for skilled high-water mark identification, including marks left behind in natural and man-made environments by tranquil and rapid flowing water. This manual also presents pitfalls and challenges associated with various types of flood evidence that help hydrographers identify the best high-water marks and assess the uncertainty associated with a given mark. Proficient high-water mark data collection contributes to better understanding of the flooding process and reduces risk through greater ability to estimate flood probability. The U.S. Geological Survey, operating the Nation’s premier water data collection network, encourages readers of this manual to familiarize themselves with the art and science of high-water mark collection. The U.S. Geological survey maintains a national database at http://water.usgs.gov/floods/FEV/ that includes high-water mark information for many flood events, and local U.S. Geological Survey Water Science Centers can provide information to interested readers about participation in data collection and flood documentation efforts as volunteers or observers.

Techniques and Methods

Annual exceedance probabilities and trends for peak streamflows and annual runoff volumes for the Central United States during the 2011 floods

During 2011, excess precipitation resulted in widespread flooding in the Central United States with 33 fatalities and approximately $4.2 billion in damages reported in the Red River of the North, Souris, and Mississippi River Basins. At different times from late February 2011 through September 2011, various rivers in these basins had major flooding, with some locations having multiple rounds of flooding. This report provides broadscale characterizations of annual exceedance probabilities and trends for peak streamflows and annual runoff volumes for selected streamgages in the Central United States in areas affected by 2011 flooding. Annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs) were analyzed for 321 streamgages for annual peak streamflow and for 211 streamgages for annual runoff volume. Some of the most exceptional flooding was for the Souris River Basin, where of 11 streamgages considered for AEP analysis of peak streamflow, flood peaks in 2011 exceeded the next largest peak of record by at least double for 6 of the longest-term streamgages (75 to 108 years of peak-flow record). AEPs for these six streamgages were less than 1 percent. AEPs for 2011 runoff volumes were less than 1 percent for all seven Souris River streamgages considered for AEP analysis. Magnitudes of 2011 runoff volumes exceeded previous maxima by double or more for 5 of the 7 streamgages (record lengths 52 to 108 years). For the Red River of the North Basin, AEPs for 2011 runoff volumes were exceptional, with two streamgages having AEPs less than 0.2 percent, five streamgages in the range of 0.2 to 1 percent, and four streamgages in the range of 1 to 2 percent. Magnitudes of 2011 runoff volumes also were exceptional, with all 11 of the aforementioned streamgages eclipsing previous long-term (62 to 110 years) annual maxima by about one-third or more. AEPs for peak streamflows in the upper Mississippi River Basin were not exceptional, with no AEPs less than 1 percent. AEPs for annual runoff volumes indicated less frequent recurrence, with 11 streamgages having AEPs of less than 1 percent. The 2011 runoff volume for streamgage 05331000 (at Saint Paul, Minnesota) exceeded the previous record (112 years of record) by about 24 percent. An especially newsworthy feature was prolonged flooding along the main stem of the Missouri River downstream from Garrison Dam (located upstream from Bismarck, North Dakota) and extending downstream throughout the length of the Missouri River. The 2011 runoff volume for streamgage 06342500 (at Bismarck) exceeded the previous (1975) maximum by about 50 percent, with an associated AEP in the range of 0.2 to 1 percent. In the Ohio River Basin, peak-streamflow AEPs were less than 2 percent for only four streamgages. Runoff-volume AEPs were less than 2 percent for only three streamgages. Along the lower Mississippi River, the largest streamflow peak in 91 years was recorded for streamgage 07289000 (at Vicksburg, Mississippi), with an associated AEP of 0.8 percent. Trends in peak streamflow were analyzed for 98 streamgages, with 67 streamgages having upward trends, 31 with downward trends, and zero with no trend. Trends in annual runoff volume were analyzed for 182 streamgages, with 145 streamgages having upward trends, 36 with downward trends, and 1 with no trend. The trend analyses used descriptive methods that did not include measures of statistical significance. A dichotomous spatial distribution in trends was apparent for both peak streamflow and annual runoff volume, with a small number of streamgages in the northwestern part of the study area having downward trends and most streamgages in the eastern part of the study area having upward trends.

Professional Paper

Peak streamflows and runoff volumes for the Central United States, February through September, 2011

During 2011, excessive precipitation resulted in widespread flooding in the Central United States with 33 fatalities and approximately $4.2 billion in damages reported in the Souris/Red River of the North (Souris/Red) and Mississippi River Basins. At different times, beginning in late February 2011 and extending through September 2011, various rivers in these basins had major flooding, with some locations receiving multiple rounds of flooding. Peak streamflow records were broken at 105 streamgages in the Souris/Red and Mississippi River Basins and annual runoff volume records set at 47 of the 211 streamgages analyzed for annual runoff. For the period of 1950 through 2011, the Ohio River provided almost one-half of the annual runoff at Vicksburg; the Missouri River contributed less than one-fourth, and the lower Mississippi River less than one-fourth. Those relative contribution patterns also occurred in 1973 and 2011, with the notable exception of the decrease in contribution of the lower Mississippi River tributaries and the increase in contribution from the upper Missouri River Basin in 2011 as compared to 1973 and the long-term average from 1950 to 2011.

Professional Paper

Documenting the stages and streamflows associated with the 2011 activation of the New Madrid Floodway, Missouri

The U.S. Geological Survey initiated a substantial effort in the summer of 2011 to measure and document the record-setting floods of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers, including the reach in and near the New Madrid Floodway. The activation of the floodway, which had not occurred since 1937, provided a rare opportunity to collect a unique dataset describing a flood wave downstream from a levee breach as well as the flow through a large floodway. A total of 42 submersible pressure transducers collected time series of water levels while crews collected hundreds of depth, velocity, and streamflow measurements at selected locations in and near the floodway throughout the period from late April to late June. These data are presented in this chapter.

Missouri

Flooding in the United States Midwest, 2008

During 2008, record precipitation amounts, coupled with already saturated soils, resulted in flooding along many rivers in the United States Midwest. Separate flooding events occurred in January, February, March, April, May, June, July, and September of 2008. The June floods were by far the most severe and widespread with substantial (and in places record) flooding and damage occurring in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Dakota, and Wisconsin. Indiana had the most recurrent flooding during 2008, with peak-of-record streamflows occurring during January, February, March, June, and September. During 2008, peak-of-record streamflows were recorded at more than 147 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamgages. The annual exceedance probability of the peak streamflows at 25 streamgages was less than 0.2 percent and between 0.2 and 1 percent at 68 streamgages. Trends in flood magnitudes were computed for USGS Midwest streamgages that had no regulation. No Midwest-wide systematic trends upward or downward were evident, although clusters of consistent trends (both upward and downward) were detected in parts of the Midwest.

Professional Paper