Geology topics

Timothy W. Davis

Publications and source records attributed to Timothy W. Davis.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2024

Physics-based forecasts of eruptive vent locations at calderas

Constraining stresses in the Earth's crust in volcanic regions is critical for understanding many mechanical processes related to eruptive activity. Dike pathways, in particular, are shaped by the orientation of principal stress axes. Therefore, accurate models of dike trajectories and future vent locations rely on accurate estimates of stresses in the subsurface. This work presents a framework for probabilistic constraint of the stress state of calderas by combining three-dimensional physics-based dike pathway models with observed past vent locations using a Monte Carlo approach. The retrieved stress state is then used to produce probability maps of future vent opening across a caldera. We test our stress inversion and vent forecast approach on synthetic scenarios, and find it successful depending on the distribution of the available vents and the complexity of the volcano's structural history. We explore the potential and limitations of the approach, show how its performance is sensitive to the assumptions in the models and available prior information, and discuss how it may be applied to real calderas.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth↗

USGS2021

Elucidating controls on cyanobacteria bloom timing and intensity via Bayesian mechanistic modeling

The adverse impacts of harmful algal blooms (HABs) are increasing worldwide. Lake Erie is a North American Great Lake highly affected by cultural eutrophication and summer cyanobacterial HABs. While phosphorus loading is a known driver of bloom size, more nuanced yet crucial questions remain. For example, it is unclear what mechanisms are primarily responsible for initiating cyanobacterial dominance and subsequent biomass accumulation. To address these questions, we develop a mechanistic model describing June–October dynamics of chlorophyll a , nitrogen, and phosphorus near the Maumee River outlet, where blooms typically initiate and are most severe. We calibrate the model to a new, geostatistically-derived dataset of daily water quality spanning 2008–2017. A Bayesian framework enables us to embed prior knowledge on system characteristics and test alternative model formulations. Overall, the best model formulation explains 42% of the variability in chlorophyll a and 83% of nitrogen, and better captures bloom timing than previous models. Our results, supported by cross validation, show that onset of the major midsummer bloom is associated with about a month of water temperatures above 20 °C (occurring 19 July to 6 August), consistent with when cyanobacteria dominance is usually reported. Decreased phytoplankton loss rate is the main factor enabling biomass accumulation, consistent with reduced zooplankton grazing on cyanobacteria. The model also shows that phosphorus limitation is most severe in August, and nitrogen limitation tends to occur in early autumn. Our results highlight the role of temperature in regulating bloom initiation and subsequent loss rates, and suggest that a 2 °C increase could lead to blooms that start about 10 days earlier and grow 23% more intense.

Michigan, Ohio↗

USGS2018

Nitrogen limitation, toxin synthesis potential, and toxicity of cyanobacterial populations in Lake Okeechobee and the St. Lucie River Estuary, Florida, during the 2016 state of emergency event

Lake Okeechobee, FL, USA, has been subjected to intensifying cyanobacterial blooms that can spread to the adjacent St. Lucie River and Estuary via natural and anthropogenically-induced flooding events. In July 2016, a large, toxic cyanobacterial bloom occurred in Lake Okeechobee and throughout the St. Lucie River and Estuary, leading Florida to declare a state of emergency. This study reports on measurements and nutrient amendment experiments performed in this freshwater-estuarine ecosystem (salinity 0–25 PSU) during and after the bloom. In July, all sites along the bloom exhibited dissolved inorganic nitrogen-to-phosphorus ratios < 6, while Microcystis dominated (> 95%) phytoplankton inventories from the lake to the central part of the estuary. Chlorophyll a and microcystin concentrations peaked (100 and 34 μg L -1 , respectively) within Lake Okeechobee and decreased eastwards. Metagenomic analyses indicated that genes associated with the production of microcystin ( mcyE ) and the algal neurotoxin saxitoxin ( sxtA ) originated from Microcystis and multiple diazotrophic genera, respectively. There were highly significant correlations between levels of total nitrogen, microcystin, and microcystin synthesis gene abundance across all surveyed sites ( p < 0.001), suggesting high levels of nitrogen supported the production of microcystin during this event. Consistent with this, experiments performed with low salinity water from the St. Lucie River during the event indicated that algal biomass was nitrogen-limited. In the fall, densities of Microcystis and concentrations of microcystin were significantly lower, green algae co-dominated with cyanobacteria, and multiple algal groups displayed nitrogen-limitation. These results indicate that monitoring and regulatory strategies in Lake Okeechobee and the St. Lucie River and Estuary should consider managing loads of nitrogen to control future algal and microcystin-producing cyanobacterial blooms.

Florida↗

USGS2017

Cyanobacteria of the 2016 Lake Okeechobee and Okeechobee Waterway harmful algal bloom

The Lake Okeechobee and the Okeechobee Waterway (Lake Okeechobee, the St. Lucie Canal and River, and the Caloosahatchee River) experienced an extensive harmful algal bloom within Lake Okeechobee, the St. Lucie Canal and River and the Caloosahatchee River in 2016. In addition to the very visible bloom of the cyanobacterium Microcystis aeruginosa , several other cyanobacteria were present. These other species were less conspicuous; however, they have the potential to produce a variety of cyanotoxins, including anatoxins, cylindrospermopsins, and saxitoxins, in addition to the microcystins commonly associated with Microcystis. Some of these species were found before, during, and 2 weeks after the large Microcystis bloom and could provide a better understanding of bloom dynamics and succession. This report provides photographic documentation and taxonomic assessment of the cyanobacteria present from Lake Okeechobee and the Caloosahatchee River and St. Lucie Canal, with samples collected June 1st from the Caloosahatchee River and Lake Okeechobee and in July from the St. Lucie Canal. The majority of the images were of live organisms, allowing their natural complement of pigmentation to be captured. The report provides a digital image-based taxonomic record of the Lake Okeechobee and the Okeechobee Waterway microscopic flora. It is anticipated that these images will facilitate current and future studies on this system, such as understanding the timing of cyanobacteria blooms and their potential toxin production.

Florida↗

USGS2016

Challenges for mapping cyanotoxin patterns from remote sensing of cyanobacteria

Using satellite imagery to quantify the spatial patterns of cyanobacterial toxins has several challenges. These challenges include the need for surrogate pigments – since cyanotoxins cannot be directly detected by remote sensing, the variability in the relationship between the pigments and cyanotoxins – especially microcystins (MC), and the lack of standardization of the various measurement methods. A dual-model strategy can provide an approach to address these challenges. One model uses either chlorophyll -a (Chl -a ) or phycocyanin (PC) collected in situ as a surrogate to estimate the MC concentration. The other uses a remote sensing algorithm to estimate the concentration of the surrogate pigment. Where blooms are mixtures of cyanobacteria and eukaryotic algae, PC should be the preferred surrogate to Chl -a . Where cyanobacteria dominate, Chl -a is a better surrogate than PC for remote sensing. Phycocyanin is less sensitive to detection by optical remote sensing, it is less frequently measured, PC laboratory methods are still not standardized, and PC has greater intracellular variability. Either pigment should not be presumed to have a fixed relationship with MC for any water body. The MC-pigment relationship can be valid over weeks, but have considerable intra- and inter-annual variability due to changes in the amount of MC produced relative to cyanobacterial biomass. To detect pigments by satellite, three classes of algorithms (analytic, semi-analytic, and derivative) have been used. Analytical and semi-analytical algorithms are more sensitive but less robust than derivatives because they depend on accurate atmospheric correction; as a result derivatives are more commonly used. Derivatives can estimate Chl -a concentration, and research suggests they can detect and possibly quantify PC. Derivative algorithms, however, need to be standardized in order to evaluate the reproducibility of parameterizations between lakes. A strategy for producing useful estimates of microcystins from cyanobacterial biomass is described, provided cyanotoxin variability is addressed.

Harmful Algae↗