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Timothy E. Dawson

Publications and source records attributed to Timothy E. Dawson.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2023

Least cost path analysis as an objective and automatic method to define the main fault trace for probabilistic fault displacement hazard analyses

A main goal of probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis (PFDHA) is to quantify displacement along and across an identified active fault that poses a hazard to nearby infrastructure such as roads, bridges, pipelines, and telecommunications. PFDHA relies on empirical models developed using data sets of displacement measurements and mapped surface rupture traces compiled from past global surface rupturing earthquakes by field surveys or remote sensing. However, current approaches to determine the location of the main rupture trace are subjective and lack repeatability due to different geological interpretations of the often complex network of mapped rupture traces. This subjectivity makes it difficult to compile and analyze displacement measurements and ruptures from multiple events in a consistent manner. This study provides an objective and repeatable approach to define a main rupture trace that can be applied to either field or remote sensing data. The new approach defined here can be used in developing rupture trace connectivity and geometry for use in displacement model developments and for use in objectively defining the input fault trace for assessing fault displacement hazard.

Earthquake Spectra↗
USGS2023

Surface fault displacement models for strike-slip faults

Fault displacement models (FDMs) are an essential component of the probabilistic fault displacement hazard analyses (PFDHA), much like ground motion models in the probabilistic seismic hazard analyses for ground motion hazards. In this study, we develop several principal surface FDMs for strike-slip earthquakes. The model development is based on analyses of the new and comprehensive fault displacement database developed as part of the Fault Displacement Hazard Initiative project led by the University of California, Los Angeles. The main objective of our study is to update the FDMs that were developed over a decade ago by the U.S. Geological Survey and California Geological Survey, in which a reference trace was drawn manually, FDMs are fixed-effect models for lateral displacement, displacement on multiple subparallel ruptures is not aggregated, magnitude (M) scaling is linear, and natural logarithm of displacement is assumed to be normally distributed.

Report GIRS↗
USGS2023

Geologic and geophysical maps of the Stockton 30’ × 60’ quadrangle, California

This pamphlet and accompanying geologic and geophysical maps are the products of cooperative efforts by the California Geological Survey (CGS) and United States Geological Survey (USGS) to compile a comprehensive, digital representation of the bedrock geology, Quaternary surficial deposits, and potential-field anomalies within the boundaries of the Stockton 30’ × 60’ quadrangle. The Stockton 30’ × 60’ quadrangle covers approximately 4,890 km 2 of Contra Costa, Alameda, San Joaquin, and Stanislaus Counties, California. From the rugged hillsides of the northern Diablo Range in the west to the San Joaquin Valley in the east, the map extends roughly 88 km across growing suburban communities of the eastern San Francisco Bay Area and Livermore Valley, grass-covered ranchlands along eastern slopes of the Diablo Range, and into the low farmlands of the San Joaquin Valley and Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta (Figure 1). The elevation ranges from near sea level in the Delta to 1,173 meters on Mt. Diablo, the most prominent peak of the San Francisco Bay region.

California↗
USGS2021

Surface Rupture Map of the 2020 M 6.5 Monte Cristo Range earthquake, Esmeralda and Mineral counties, Nevada

The 15 May 2020, M6.5 Monte Cristo Range earthquake was the largest earthquake in Nevada in over 66 years and occurred in a sparsely populated area of western Nevada about 74 km southeast of the town of Hawthorne. The earthquake produced surface rupture distributed across a 28-km-long zone along the eastward projection of the Candelaria fault in the Mina deflection of the central Walker Lane. Post-event field surveys mapped surface ruptures and measured displacements, which reached up to ~20 cm of oblique slip. Additional detailed mapping was completed using centimeter-resolution orthomosaics generated from Uncrewed Aerial Vehicle surveys. The rupture observations and displacement data are compiled into this 1:14,000-scale map, data tables, and accompanying digital dataset. The rupture consists of two distinct deformational domains roughly separated by U.S. Highway 95: ENE-trending ruptures with normal and left-oblique displacements in the western domain, and N- to NNE-trending ruptures with normal and right-oblique displacement in the eastern domain. The complex pattern of surface rupture is consistent with the projections of mapped bedrock and Quaternary faults in the area and illustrates the kinematics of slip partitioning at the junction of variably oriented structures in the shallow subsurface.

Nevada↗
USGS2020

Documentation of Surface Fault Rupture and Ground‐Deformation Features Produced by the 4 and 5 July 2019 Mw 6.4 and Mw 7.1 Ridgecrest Earthquake Sequence

The M w "> M w Mw 6.4 and M w "> M w Mw 7.1 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence occurred on 4 and 5 July 2019 within the eastern California shear zone of southern California. Both events produced extensive surface faulting and ground deformation within Indian Wells Valley and Searles Valley. In the weeks following the earthquakes, more than six dozen scientists from government, academia, and the private sector carefully documented the surface faulting and ground‐deformation features. As of December 2019, we have compiled a total of more than 6000 ground observations; approximately 1500 of these simply note the presence or absence of fault rupture or ground failure, but the remainder include detailed descriptions and other documentation, including tens of thousands of photographs. More than 1100 of these observations also include quantitative field measurements of displacement sense and magnitude. These field observations were supplemented by mapping of fault rupture and ground‐deformation features directly in the field as well as by interpreting the location and extent of surface faulting and ground deformation from optical imagery and geodetic image products. We identified greater than 68 km of fault rupture produced by both earthquakes as well as numerous sites of ground deformation resulting from liquefaction or slope failure. These observations comprise a dataset that is fundamental to understanding the processes that controlled this earthquake sequence and for improving earthquake hazard estimates in the region. This article documents the types of data collected during postearthquake field investigations, the compilation effort, and the digital data products resulting from these efforts.

California↗
USGS2020

Evidence of previous faulting along the 2019 Ridgecrest, California earthquake ruptures

The July 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence in southeastern California was characterized as surprising because only ~35% of the rupture occurred on previously mapped faults. Employing more detailed inspection of pre-event high-resolution topography and imagery in combination with field observations, we document evidence of active faulting in the landscape along the entire fault system. Scarps, deflected drainages, and lineaments and contrasts in topography, vegetation, and ground color demonstrate previous slip on a dense network of orthogonal faults, consistent with patterns of surface rupture observed in 2019. Not all of these newly mapped fault strands ruptured in 2019. Outcrop-scale field observations additionally reveal tufa lineaments and sheared Quaternary deposits. Neotectonic features are commonly short (<2 km), discontinuous, and display en echelon patterns along both the M 6.4 and M 7.1 ruptures. These features are generally more prominent and better preserved outside the late Pleistocene lake basins. Fault expression may also be related to deformation style: scarps and topographic lineaments are more prevalent in areas where substantial vertical motion occurred in 2019. Where strike-slip displacement dominated in 2019, the faults are mainly expressed by less prominent tonal and vegetation features. Both the NE- and NW-trending active fault systems are subparallel to regional bedrock fabrics that were established as early as ~150 Ma, and may be reactivating these older structures. Overall, we estimate that 50-70% (i.e., an additional 15-35%) of the 2019 surface ruptures could have been recognized as active faults with detailed inspection of pre-event data. Similar detailed mapping of potential neotectonic features could help improve seismic hazard analyses in other regions of eastern California and elsewhere that have distributed faulting or incompletely mapped faults. In areas where faults cannot be resolved as single thoroughgoing structures, a zone of potential faulting should be used as a hazard model input.

California↗
USGS2020

Surface displacement distributions for the July 2019 Ridgecrest, California earthquake ruptures

Surface rupture in the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, earthquake sequence occurred along two orthogonal cross faults and includes dominantly left‐lateral and northeast‐striking rupture in the M w "> M w 6.4 foreshock and dominantly right‐lateral and northwest‐striking rupture in the M w "> M w 7.1 mainshock. We present &gt; 650 "> > 650 field‐based, surface‐displacement observations for these ruptures and synthesize our results into cumulative along‐strike displacement distributions. Using these data, we calculate displacement gradients and compare our results with historical strike‐slip ruptures in the eastern California shear zone. For the M w "> M w 6.4 rupture, we report 96 displacements measured along 18 km of northeast‐striking rupture. Cumulative displacement curves for the rupture yield a mean left‐lateral displacement of 0.3–0.5 m and maximum of 0.7–1.6 m. Net mean vertical displacement based on the difference of down‐to‐the‐west (DTW) and down‐to‐the‐east (DTE) displacement curves is close to zero (0.02 m DTW). The M w "> M w 6.4 displacement distribution shows that the majority of displacement occurred southwest of the intersection with the M w "> M w 7.1 rupture. The M w "> M w 7.1 rupture is northwest‐striking and 50 km long based on 576 field measurements. Displacement curves indicate a mean right‐lateral displacement of 1.2–1.7 m and a maximum of 4.3–7.0 m. Net vertical displacement in the rupture averages 0.3 m DTW. The M w "> M w 7.1 displacement distributions demonstrate that maximum displacement occurred along a 12‐km‐long portion of the fault near the M w "> M w 7.1 epicenter, releasing 66% of the geologically based seismic moment along 24% of the total rupture length. Using our displacement distributions, we calculate kilometer‐scale displacement gradients for the M w "> M w 7.1 rupture. The steepest gradients ( ⁠ &#x223C; 1 &#x2013; 3 &#x2009;&#x2009; m / km "> ∼ 1 – 3 m / km ⁠ ) flank the 12‐km‐long region of maximum displacement. In contrast, gradients for the 1992 M w "> M w 7.3 Landers and 1999 M w "> M w 7.1 Hector Mine earthquakes are &lt; 0.6 &#x2009;&#x2009; m / km "> < 0.6 m / km . Our displacement distributions are important for understanding the influence of cross‐fault rupture on M w "> M w 6.4 and 7.1 rupture length and displacement and will facilitate comparisons with distributions generated remotely and at broader scales.

California↗
USGS2020

Airborne lidar and electro-optical imagery along surface ruptures of the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence, Southern California

Surface rupture from the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence, initially associated with the M 6.4 foreshock, occurred on July 4 on a ~17 km long, northeast-southwest oriented, left-lateral zone of faulting. Following the M 7.1 mainshock on July 5 (local time), extensive northwest-southeast-oriented, right-lateral faulting was then also mapped along a ~50 km long zone of faults, including sub-parallel splays in several areas. The largest slip was observed in the epicentral area, and crossing the dry lakebed of China Lake to the southeast. Surface fault rupture mapping by a large team, reported elsewhere, was used to guide the airborne data acquisition reported here. Rapid rupture mapping allowed for accurate and efficient flight line planning for the high-resolution lidar and aerial photography. Flight line planning trade-offs were considered to allocate the medium (25 pulses per square meter, or ppsm) and high resolution (80 ppsm) lidar data collection polygons. The National Center for Airborne Laser Mapping (NCALM) acquired the airborne imagery with a Titan multispectral lidar system and DiMAC aerial digital camera, and USGS acquired GPS ground control data. This effort required extensive coordination with the Navy as much of the airborne data acquisition occurred within their restricted airspace at the China Lake Ranges.

Calilfornia↗
USGS2020

Near-field ground motions from the July, 2019 Ridgecrest, California, earthquake sequence

The 2019 Ridgecrest, California, earthquake sequence, including an Mw 6.4 event on 4 July and an Mw 7.1 approximately 34 hr later, was recorded by 15 instruments within 55 km nearest‐fault distance. To characterize and explore near‐field ground motions from the Mw 6.4 foreshock and Mw 7.1 mainshock, we augment these records with available macroseismic information, including conventional intensities and displaced rocks. We conclude that near‐field shaking intensities were generally below modified Mercalli intensity 9, with concentrations of locally high values toward the northern and southern termini of the mainshock rupture. We further show that, relative to near‐field ground motions at hard‐rock sites, instrumental ground motions at alluvial near‐field sites for both the Mw 6.4 foreshock and Mw 7.1 mainshock were depleted in energy at frequencies higher than 2–3 Hz, as expected from ground‐motion models. Both the macroseismic and instrumental observations suggest that sediments in the Indian Wells Valley experienced a pervasively nonlinear response, which helps explain why shaking intensities and damage in the closest population center, Ridgecrest, were relatively modest given its proximity to the earthquakes.

California↗
USGS2019

Preliminary report on engineering and geological effects of the July 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence

The Ridgecrest Earthquake sequence included a foreshock event on July 4 2019 (M6.4) and a M7.1 mainshock event on July 5 2019. These events occurred in the Eastern California Shear Zone, near Indian Wells Valley, south of China Lake and west of Searles Valley. GEER has partnered with several organizations to collect perishable data and document the important impacts of these events, including the US Geological Survey, the California Geological Survey, the US Navy, the Southern California Earthquake Center, and local utilities. Critical geotechnical features of this event are extensive left-lateral (M6.4 event) and right-lateral (M7.1 event) surface ruptures over fault segments of variable complexity and width as well as across extensional and compressive step-over zones. We also document lifeline performance at fault crossings (gas, water, electrical), mainshock slip and afterslip, liquefaction and lateral spreading features, and liquefaction effects on structures. These effects are documented using field (ground) mapping and aerial imagery that will support subsequent development of high-resolution digital elevation models. Over 750 ground motions were recorded from the foreshock and mainshock alone, with many additional aftershock records. The data demonstrate significant impacts of site response and rupture directivity on ground motion attributes.

Report↗
USGS2017

A synoptic view of the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3)

Probabilistic forecasting of earthquake‐producing fault ruptures informs all major decisions aimed at reducing seismic risk and improving earthquake resilience. Earthquake forecasting models rely on two scales of hazard evolution: long‐term (decades to centuries) probabilities of fault rupture, constrained by stress renewal statistics, and short‐term (hours to years) probabilities of distributed seismicity, constrained by earthquake‐clustering statistics. Comprehensive datasets on both hazard scales have been integrated into the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3). UCERF3 is the first model to provide self‐consistent rupture probabilities over forecasting intervals from less than an hour to more than a century, and it is the first capable of evaluating the short‐term hazards that result from multievent sequences of complex faulting. This article gives an overview of UCERF3, illustrates the short‐term probabilities with aftershock scenarios, and draws some valuable scientific conclusions from the modeling results. In particular, seismic, geologic, and geodetic data, when combined in the UCERF3 framework, reject two types of fault‐based models: long‐term forecasts constrained to have local Gutenberg–Richter scaling, and short‐term forecasts that lack stress relaxation by elastic rebound.

Seismological Research Letters↗
USGS2017

Buried shallow fault slip from the South Napa earthquake revealed by near-field geodesy

Earthquake-related fault slip in the upper hundreds of meters of Earth’s surface has remained largely unstudied because of challenges measuring deformation in the near field of a fault rupture. We analyze centimeter-scale accuracy mobile laser scanning (MLS) data of deformed vine rows within ±300 m of the principal surface expression of the M (magnitude) 6.0 2014 South Napa earthquake. Rather than assuming surface displacement equivalence to fault slip, we invert the near-field data with a model that allows for, but does not require, the fault to be buried below the surface. The inversion maps the position on a preexisting fault plane of a slip front that terminates ~3 to 25 m below the surface coseismically and within a few hours postseismically. The lack of surface-breaching fault slip is verified by two trenches. We estimate near-surface slip ranging from ~0.5 to 1.25 m. Surface displacement can underestimate fault slip by as much as 30%. This implies that similar biases could be present in short-term geologic slip rates used in seismic hazard analyses. Along strike and downdip, we find deficits in slip: The along-strike deficit is erased after ~1 month by afterslip. We find no evidence of off-fault deformation and conclude that the downdip shallow slip deficit for this event is likely an artifact. As near-field geodetic data rapidly proliferate and will become commonplace, we suggest that analyses of near-surface fault rupture should also use more sophisticated mechanical models and subsurface geomechanical tests.

California↗
USGS2016

Tearing the terroir: Details and implications of surface rupture and deformation from the 24 August 2014 M6.0 South Napa earthquake, California

The M w 6.0 South Napa earthquake of 24 August 2014 caused slip on several active fault strands within the West Napa Fault Zone (WNFZ). Field mapping identified 12.5 km of surface rupture. These field observations, near-field geodesy and space geodesy, together provide evidence for more than ~30 km of surface deformation with a relatively complex distribution across a number of subparallel lineaments. Along a ~7 km section north of the epicenter, the surface rupture is confined to a single trace that cuts alluvial deposits, reoccupying a low-slope scarp. The rupture continued northward onto at least four other traces through subparallel ridges and valleys. Postseismic slip exceeded coseismic slip along much of the southern part of the main rupture trace with total slip 1 year postevent approaching 0.5 m at locations where only a few centimeters were measured the day of the earthquake. Analysis of airborne interferometric synthetic aperture radar data provides slip distributions along fault traces, indicates connectivity and extent of secondary traces, and confirms that postseismic slip only occurred on the main trace of the fault, perhaps indicating secondary structures ruptured as coseismic triggered slip. Previous mapping identified the WNFZ as a zone of distributed faulting, and this was generally borne out by the complex 2014 rupture pattern. Implications for hazard analysis in similar settings include the need to consider the possibility of complex surface rupture in areas of complex topography, especially where multiple potentially Quaternary-active fault strands can be mapped.

California↗
USGS2016

Earthquake geology and paleoseismology of major strands of the San Andreas fault system

The San Andreas fault system in California is one of the best-studied faults in the world, both in terms of the long-term geologic history and paleoseismic study of past surface ruptures. In this paper, we focus on the Quaternary to historic data that have been collected from the major strands of the San Andreas fault system, both on the San Andreas Fault itself, and the major subparallel strands that comprise the plate boundary, including the Calaveras-Hayward- Rogers Creek-Maacama fault zone and the Concord-Green Valley-Bartlett Springs fault zone in northern California, and the San Jacinto and Elsinore faults in southern California. The majority of the relative motion between the Pacific and North American lithospheric plates is accommodated by these faults, with the San Andreas slipping at about 34 mm/yr in central California, decreasing to about 20 mm/yr in northern California north of its juncture with the Calaveras and Concord faults. The Calaveras-Hayward-Rogers Creek-Maacama fault zone exhibits a slip rate of 10-15 mm/yr, whereas the rate along the Concord-Green Valley-Bartlett Springs fault zone is lower at about 5 mm/yr. In southern California, the San Andreas exhibits a slip rate of about 35 mm/yr along the Mojave section, decreasing to as low as 10-15 mm/yr along its juncture with the San Jacinto fault, and about 20 mm/yr in the Coachella Valley. The San Jacinto and Elsinore fault zones exhibit rates of about 15 and 5 mm/yr, respectively. The average recurrence interval for surface-rupturing earthquakes along individual elements of the San Andreas fault system range from 100-500 years and is consistent with slip rate at those sites: higher slip rates produce more frequent or larger earthquakes. There is also evidence of short-term variations in strain release (slip rate) along various fault sections, as expressed as “flurries” or clusters of earthquakes as well as periods of relatively fewer surface ruptures in these relatively short records. This is reflected by non-periodic coefficients of variation in earthquake recurrence of 0.4 to 0.7 for the various paleoseismic sites.

California↗
USGS2016

Does paleoseismology forecast the historic rates of large earthquakes on the San Andreas fault system?

The 98-year open interval since the most recent ground-rupturing earthquake in the greater San Andreas boundary fault system would not be predicted by the quasi-periodic recurrence statistics from paleoseismic data. We examine whether the current hiatus could be explained by uncertainties in earthquake dating. Using seven independent paleoseismic records, 100 year intervals may have occurred circa 1150, 1400, and 1700 AD, but they occur in a third or less of sample records drawn at random. A second method sampling from dates conditioned on the existence of a gap of varying length suggests century-long gaps occur 3-10% of the time. A combined record with more sites would lead to lower probabilities. Systematic data over-interpretation is considered an unlikely explanation. Instead some form of non-stationary behaviour seems required, perhaps through long-range fault interaction. Earthquake occurrence since 1000 AD is not inconsistent with long-term cyclicity suggested from long runs of earthquake simulators.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2015

Long‐term time‐dependent probabilities for the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3)

The 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP 2014) presents time-dependent earthquake probabilities for the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3). Building on the UCERF3 time-independent model, published previously, renewal models are utilized to represent elastic-rebound-implied probabilities. A new methodology has been developed that solves applicability issues in the previous approach for un-segmented models. The new methodology also supports magnitude-dependent aperiodicity and accounts for the historic open interval on faults that lack a date-of-last-event constraint. Epistemic uncertainties are represented with a logic tree, producing 5,760 different forecasts. Results for a variety of evaluation metrics are presented, including logic-tree sensitivity analyses and comparisons to the previous model (UCERF2). For 30-year M&ge;6.7 probabilities, the most significant changes from UCERF2 are a threefold increase on the Calaveras fault and a threefold decrease on the San Jacinto fault. Such changes are due mostly to differences in the time-independent models (e.g., fault slip rates), with relaxation of segmentation and inclusion of multi-fault ruptures being particularly influential. In fact, some UCERF2 faults were simply too long to produce M 6.7 sized events given the segmentation assumptions in that study. Probability model differences are also influential, with the implied gains (relative to a Poisson model) being generally higher in UCERF3. Accounting for the historic open interval is one reason. Another is an effective 27% increase in the total elastic-rebound-model weight. The exact factors influencing differences between UCERF2 and UCERF3, as well as the relative importance of logic-tree branches, vary throughout the region, and depend on the evaluation metric of interest. For example, M&ge;6.7 probabilities may not be a good proxy for other hazard or loss measures. This sensitivity, coupled with the approximate nature of the model and known limitations, means the applicability of UCERF3 should be evaluated on a case-by-case basis.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2015

The Mw6.0 24 August 2014 South Napa earthquake

The M w 6.0 South Napa earthquake, which occurred at 10:20 UTC 24 August 2014 was the largest earthquake to strike the greater San Francisco Bay area since the M w 6.9 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake. The rupture from this right‐lateral earthquake propagated mostly unilaterally to the north and up‐dip, directing the strongest shaking toward the city of Napa, where peak ground accelerations (PGAs) between 45% g and 61% g were recorded and modified Mercalli intensities (MMIs) of VII&ndash;VIII were reported. Tectonic surface rupture with dextral slip of up to 46 cm was observed on a 12.5 km long segment, some of which was along a previously mapped strand of the West Napa fault system, although the rupture extended to the north of the mapped Quaternary strand. Modeling of seismic and geodetic data suggests an average coseismic slip of 50 cm, with a maximum slip of about 1 m at depths of 10&ndash;11 km. We observed up to 35 cm of afterslip along the surface trace in the week following the mainshock, primarily along the southern half of the surface rupture that experienced relatively little coseismic offset. Relocation of the sparse aftershock sequence suggests en echelon southwest‐ and northeast‐dipping fault planes, reflective of the complex fault geometry in this region. The Napa basin and historic and late Holocene alluvial flood deposits in downtown Napa amplified the ground motions there. Few ground failures were mapped, reflecting the dry season (as well as a persistent drought that had lowered the groundwater table) and the short duration of strong shaking in the epicentral area.

California↗